Evidence on agglomeration economies,diseconomies, and growth

Conventional urban economic analysis suggests that a local economy's size is closely related to a number of features, including levels of human capital and the availability of specialized inputs, which are likely to influence positively the rate at which it accumulates further economic activity. At the same time, urban theory also suggests that once cities reach a certain level of size, these agglomeration benefits begin to peter out, while diseconomies rise rapidly. Consequently, we should see an ‘inverted U‐shaped’ pattern of growth with respect to economic size—rates of growth first rise, then fall as size increases. This paper shows that, while such a pattern is largely absent from recent data on growth in metropolitan area population and employment, it emerges strikingly in county‐level data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

State and local fiscal policy and growth at the border

The paper studies the connection between state and local fiscal policy, as measured by the share of government spending and revenues in personal income, and the economic activity of counties that share a state border. I construct a panel of pairs of US counties that share a state border from the 1970s to 2012. Economic activity is measured by county employment, wages and business establishments. The state and local government spending and revenue shares are aggregates for the states on the respective sides of the border. I estimate distributed lag regressions of changes in economic activity on changes in state and local government budgets in two ways. The first (double difference) utilizes change in the difference between border counties. This suggests a quite modest relocation of economic activity away from states with fiscal expansion. I then look at activity on each side of the border separately and find more substantial and consistently negative effects of fiscal expansion on both sides of the border. A border county shares the negative consequences for its neighbor of growth in the size of that neighbor's state and local governments. This negative fiscal externality is roughly half the size of the direct negative effects from similar own-state spending increases, and the sum of the two is substantial economically.     

我国大都市区集聚与扩散的空间计量分析——基于空间面板数据

随着"疏散化"趋势的到来,我国大都市地区所呈现的集聚与扩散趋势逐渐明显。以我国128个大都市区为例,对其经济发展在空间上的集散特征进行空间自相关分析。全局莫兰指数表明,2000年至2017年我国大都市区经济发展整体上呈现显著的集聚特征,但是集聚程度呈现下降的趋势。从东中西和东北地区角度看,东部地区和东北地区均具有显著的扩散趋势,但是原因不同;中部大都市区的集聚程度具有下降的趋势;而西部大都市区具有显著集聚上升的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明,城市化率、人口规模和城镇居民人均可支配收入水平均对大都市区的经济增长率具有显著的空间正向关系,且居民人均收入水平对城市经济增长率的影响程度最大,大都市区之间经济发展的空间溢出效应较为显著,经济发展水平较高的大都市区辐射带动作用较强。最后,从顺应大都市区发展趋势、因地制宜制定城市发展规划以及合理分布人口规模和提高居民收入水平三个角度提出对策建议。     

Industry variations in the broadband business nexus

Although broadband Internet infrastructure is acknowledged as a key ingredient to competitiveness, an unfortunate aspect of current work is the dominant focus on households. Given the need for more research on the multidimensional relationship between broadband and businesses, or the broadband-business nexus, this study estimates econometric models to evaluate the impact of early broadband availability on future levels of business activity. Model results suggest regions with an early advantage in broadband provision had more business growth than other regions. Model results also highlight long-lasting spatial effects on business activity stemming from broadband spillovers from core hubs to neighboring areas.     

Economic Structure and Local Growth: France, 1984–1993

For 52 industry sectors and 42 services sectors, this paper tests how the local economic structure (local sectoral specialization and diversity, competition, average size of plants, and total employment density) affects the 1984–1993 employment growth of 341 local areas. These areas entirely and continuously cover the French territory. The impact of the local economic structure differs in industry and services. In industrial sectors, local total employment density, competition, and plant size always reduce local growth. Sectoral specialization and diversity have a negative impact on growth, but also increase the growth of a few sectors. Service sectors always exhibit negative specialization effects and positive diversity effects. Competition and plant size have a negative impact and density a positive one, but exceptions are observed for some sectors.     

增加农民收入进而扩大农村消费需求——基于咸阳农村的调查

近几年,国家非常重视通过国内需求的扩大来刺激经济的增长这个问题,我国农业人口众多,农村消费市场潜力巨大,如果农村消费需求能够有效扩大,那么将会促进经济快速发展。影响农村消费需求的因素很多,我们通过对咸阳农村的调研,认为收入是最重要的因素,只有增加农民收入才是有效扩大农村需求的根本。     

The agglomeration of headquarters

This paper uses a micro data set on auxiliary establishments from 1977 to 1997 in order to investigate the determinants of headquarter agglomerations and the underlying economic base of many larger metro areas. The significance of headquarters in large urban settings is their ability to facilitate the spatial separation of their white collar activities from remote production plants. The results show that separation benefits headquarters in two main ways: the availability of differentiated local service input suppliers and the scale of other headquarter activity nearby. A wide diversity of local service options allows the headquarters to better match their various needs with specific experts producing service inputs from whom they learn, which improves their productivity. Headquarters also benefit from other headquarter neighbors, although such marginal scale benefits seem to diminish as local scale rises.     

Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

区域劳务合作发展模式研究

区域劳务合作中大量劳动力、科技人员从欠发达地区向发达地区转移。对发达地区,这种劳动力生产要素的流入,缓解了劳动力供给不足的矛盾,对经济发展起到很大的推动作用;对于欠发达地区,劳动力生产要素的流出,减少了就业竞争的压力,为富余劳动力提供了就业机会。从区域经济发展、经济结构的变化、人口和就业压力等方面分析了区域劳务合作产生及发展趋势;从合作的经济效益、非经济效益、合作成本角度对合作效益进行了分析,认为区域劳务合作模式分为四种。最后提出了推进我国区域劳务合作发展的几点建议。     

Employment predictions in social impact assessment: An analysis of some unexplored variables

Social scientists investigating the impacts of energy development are increasingly searching for predictive models of the employment benefits to locals. This issue is of extreme importance not only because of the benefits to locals but because of the issue of local benefits as well as the connection with population growth and boom town development. Unfortunately, some of the recent investigations and predictive models are of little utility as a result of certain analytical and methodological faults, including improper assumptions about local labor supply and local preferences. In addition to the assessment of previous investigations, a framework for predicting local employment impacts is suggested. This framework utilizes characteristics and preferences of the local population.     

Self-employment and job generation in metropolitan areas, 1969–2009

Many regional development policy initiatives assume that entrepreneurial activities promote economic growth. Empirical research has presented rationale for this argument showing that small firms create proportionally more new jobs than large firms. However, little research has been performed on the issue of net job generation at the urban level, particularly when self-employment is considered as an indicator of entrepreneurial activities. This paper investigates to what extent US metropolitan areas in the 1969–2009 period characterized by relatively high rates of self-employment also have shown relatively high rates of subsequent total employment growth. The analysis corrects for the influence of sectoral composition, wage level, educational attainment, presence of research universities and size of the metropolitan area to measure the extent to which the number and quality of self-employed in a region contribute to total employment growth. It finds the relationship between self-employment rates and subsequent total employment growth to be positive on average during the 40-year period but to weaken over time.     

Industry Agglomerations and Employment Change in Non-Metropolitan Areas

The purpose of this study is to determine the role of industry agglomerations on industry-level employment change in non-metro areas of the United States. Regression analysis of cross-sectional data is used to estimate the determinants of non-metro 1981–1992 employment change for ten two-digit SIC manufacturing industries. Industry agglomerations in metro and non-metro areas are identified using cluster analysis. Area characteristics included in the regression equations are diversity of the local economy, industry mix, average plant size and availability of urbanization economies. The findings indicate that industry agglomerations were associated with both larger employment gains in areas with growing industry employment and larger employment losses for areas with declining employment. Neither regional specialization in the industry nor nearby metro agglomerations were significant determinants of employment change in non-metro areas.     

基于消费结构分析的扩大内需对策研究——以上海城镇居民为例

消费是拉动经济的三驾马车之一,在当前依靠投资和出口拉动经济战略受阻的背景下,扩大内需、刺激消费成为推动我国经济发展的关键因素。作为反映居民消费本质的重要概念,消费结构与扩大内需是密不可分的。本文以上海城镇居民消费结构为研究对象,分析其在1995～2008年间演变规律;运用ELES模型探究居民消费支出与可支配收入的关系;测算商品需求收入弹性系数并进行比较分析。在此基础上,提出从稳定商品价格、提高居民收入、完善社会保障制度和优化供给结构等方面政策刺激消费,扩大内需。     

The topography of metropolitan employment: Identifying centers of employment in a polycentric urban area

While it is well recognized that US metropolitan areas are polycentric, there is little consensus as to the appropriate method for identifying concentrations of employment within them. Existing methods suffer from strong assumptions about parametric form, misspecification, or reliance on local knowledge to calibrate model parameters. This paper introduces a new nonparametric method for identifying subcenters. Results indicate that this, more flexible, nonparametric approach yields greater accuracy with regard to both urban and suburban centers compared with other approaches. This approach should provide better data for the numerous topics that depend on the spatial accounting of employment within metropolitan areas.     

Highways and productivity in manufacturing firms

Using a geo-coded micro-level panel dataset for Spanish manufacturing firms, I estimate the effect of access to highways on firm-level productivity. To identify the causal effect of highways, I have relied on different fixed-effects specifications, instrumental variables and controls for geography, geology and history. Since highways also attract economic activity, leading to local density increases, which in turn could affect productivity through agglomeration benefits, I also present estimations that control for local employment densities. The results show that highways raise firm-level productivity directly and beyond the effect of density. Additional results show that highway benefits are unevenly distributed across sectors and space.     

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets

The spatial impact of employment centres on housing markets. Spatial Economic Analysis. Local economic growth tends to affect neighbourhood house prices unevenly. It has been observed that prime locations experience price hikes far in excess of the surrounding local area. Yet, this phenomenon is not well captured by existing economic models. This research provides a model of spatial and temporal interactions between housing and employment markets. The results show that rapid growth of employment centres increases house prices in neighbouring locations even after adjusting for fundamentals. It is concluded that spatial clustering of companies creates an option value for existing and potential employees that goes beyond ease of access for commuting purposes.     

我国城乡居民收入差距的数理经济模型及其实证研究

深化收入分配制度改革,增加城乡居民收入是我国改革的根本目标。改革开放以来,我国的经济持续快速发展,人民的生活水平得到了很大提高,但与此同时,我国也出现了严重的居民收入差距。文章在对收入分配的影响因素进行分析的基础上,建立一个回归模型分析所有制结构的演变与居民收入的关系,进而通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验,对二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距之间的数量关系进行了分析和检验。研究结论表明:转型期所有制结构的演变以及二元经济结构是我国居民收入差距呈扩大趋势的根本原因,二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距具有单向的格兰杰原因。最后针对城乡收入差距扩大的趋势提出相应的解决对策。     

A model for manpower, employment, training and education

The increasing refinement and variety of economic projections can give the educational planner an extremely useful tool, providing he can find a way to convert sectoral projections of employment into educational requirements. In this study occupational data from the Census of 1960 were converted directly into their vocational educational equivalents so that cross-classifications by (SIC) sector permitted the derivation of sectoral employment/education coefficients. These coefficients, multiplied by projected employment in each sector, give projected employment in terms of the vocational preparation which is implied.

Using this approach, vocational preparation requirements were projected to 1975 for the fifty states and 224 metropolitan areas. The results thus generated show the variety which can be anticipated among the various regions in the United States, and can provide guidance to local and state educational groups in setting up programs at state and local levels.

A similar approach which used various national projections led to two conclusions. The level of sectoral detail can have quite important impacts on the “mix” of training requirements which results, suggesting that projections of this type must be based on quite detailed sectoral employment breakdowns. Second, shifts in patterns of growth can have marked impacts on some types of vocational training requirements while needs for other types remain relatively unaffected.     

民营企业制度创新研究

随着我国市场经济体制的建立和完善,中小民营企业得到了迅速发展,不仅成为推动我国国民经济持续、稳定、快速增长的重要力量,而且在调整经济结构、扩大社会就业、发展地方经济、增加财政收入等方面发挥着重要的作用。同时,中小民营企业也是配合大型企业改革和发展、促进技术创新和科技成果转化、加快小城镇建设和农业产业化的重要力量,蕴藏着极大发展潜力。目前,中小民营企业已成为我国经济发展中一支最为活跃的力量,在整个国民经济中的重要地位和作用更加突出。     

The effects of vehicle ownership on employment

Vehicle ownership may promote work if employment opportunities and job searches are enhanced by reliable transportation. For example, vehicles may serve to reduce potential physical isolation from employment opportunities. I examine the effects of vehicle ownership and vehicle quality on employment for single mothers with no more than a high school education using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. I control for potential bias by jointly estimating employment and vehicle ownership in a maximum likelihood framework using state welfare eligibility asset rules as instruments. Results show that vehicle ownership increases employment. Positive effects of vehicles do not differ for urban and rural residents, but they do change with economic conditions. Further, welfare recipients are significantly more likely to exit the program and become employed if they own a vehicle.