城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场:资源与收入配置效应

本文对杭州市城乡交错区农村住房租赁市场的资源配置与收入配置效应进行了详细分析。研究发现,村庄外来劳动力比重对住房租赁市场的发育影响较大;家庭人均住房建筑面积与农户出租面积关系密切。住房租赁市场的发育提高了宅基地利用效率,并一定程度上促进了住房投资。住房出租的租金收入在农户家庭收入总额中已经占到了不小的份额,这意味着住房租赁市场的发育有利于农户家庭收入的提高。     

关于提高住宅有效购买力的几点思考

随着我国住房制度改革的推进 ,房地产业面临着前所未有的发展机遇。然而 ,几年过去了 ,我们却不得不面对住宅潜在需求和有效需求不足的尖锐矛盾。产生这一现象的原因是多方面的 ,笔者认为最主要的原因在于商品住宅价格偏高、住房金融市场发展缓慢以及住房交易市场不健全三个方面。因此 ,要使住宅产业真正成为消费热点和新的经济增长点 ,就必须努力降低现有商品住宅价格、加快住房金融市场的发展以及完善住房交易市场     

住宅房地产市场系统的协同演化模型

住宅房地产市场的本质表明,住宅房地产市场系统为一个开放的经济系统,其内部因素存在着各种外在和内在的关系,本文建立住宅房地产市场的协同演化方程,并得出住宅房地产市场投资额为住宅房地产市场系统的序参量,在自组织理论应用上具有一定的创新意义;再者,借鉴国内外住宅房地产市场的研究角度和方法,建立了南京住宅房地产市场系统的演化仿真模型,取得了很好的仿真效果。     

Effects of residential relocation on household and commuting expenditures in Shanghai, China

Over the past three decades, China's cities have undergone massive spatial restructuring in the wake of market reforms and economic growth. One consequence has been a rapid migration of urban residents to the periphery. Some movers have been forced out either by rising urban rents or government reclamation of their residences. Others have relocated willingly to modernized housing or for other lifestyle reasons. This article examines the effects of relocation to the urban edge on household well-being. It explores the factors underlying changes in housing and transportation costs as households move to the periphery. The research also examines whether those who moved involuntarily are affected differently from those who moved by choice. Results show that, relative to those who moved by choice, involuntary movers are disproportionately and adversely affected in terms of job accessibility, commute time, housing consumption and disposable income. The findings also show that, compared with higher-income households, lower-income groups are disproportionately affected in relation to housing costs, accessibility losses, disposable income and household worker composition. These results indicate that relocation compensation for involuntarily relocated households should be expanded to include more than just housing value: it should encompass urban location changes, household needs and relocation costs.     

Moving up the Ladder or Stuck on the Bottom Rung? Homeownership as a Solution to Poverty in Urban South Africa

In the global South, policies providing property titles to low-income households are increasingly implemented as a solution to poverty. Integrating poor households into the capitalist economy using state-subsidized homeownership is intended to provide poor people with an asset that can be used in a productive manner. In this article the South African "housing subsidy system" is assessed using quantitative and qualitative data from in-depth research in a state-subsidized housing settlement in the city of Cape Town. The findings show that while state-subsidized property ownership provides long-term shelter and tenure security to low-income households, houses have mixed value as a financial asset. Although state-subsidized houses in South Africa are a financially tradable asset, transaction values are too low for low-income vendors to reach the next rung on the housing ladder, the township market. Furthermore, low-income homeowners are reticent to use their (typically primary) asset as collateral security for credit, and thus property ownership is not providing the financial returns that titling theories assume.     

保障性住房“退出难”的破解之道——以杭州市廉租住房为样本

保障性住房是市场经济条件下政府为了解决市场失灵而提供的一种公共产品。作为投入有限资金的政府公共资源,现实中保障性住房"退出难"的情况时有发生,若不加以重视解决,则容易导致保障性住房供给结构失衡,加剧供需矛盾,造成有限的住房资源难以发挥最大的保障作用。本文以租赁型保障性住房中的廉租住房为分析样本,解读当前廉租住房的制度架构,并分析了廉租住房退出管理中的现实困难及背景原因。在此基础上,提出从制度建设、工作机制、配套措施等方面多管齐下破解"退出难"问题,以期为保障性住房退出管理提供多维的解决思路。     

保障房建设在房地产及经济发展中的作用

在我国房地产供应市场化的过程中,市场主体的不断增强导致了房地产资源的分配出现了严重不均的状态,于是,国家对房地产业进行了数次调控。当前的保障房建设规模的迅速扩大是国家对房地产业宏观调控取得的重要成果之一。在保障房建设过程中,一方面应实现保障房建设自身的有序发展,另一方面亦应关注商品房建设的健康发展,最终使房地产资源的配置得到优化和国家整体经济的健康平稳发展。     

Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations

This study examines the role of households’ expectations in predicting the housing boom–bust cycles in the United States. It incorporates two nonlinear features of housing price dynamics: a threshold co-movement between households’ expectations and housing price growth and a structural break in their interrelation. It uses the monthly good-time-to-buy (GTTB) index as a proxy for households’ expectations about the U.S. housing market, and employs the structural break threshold vector autoregression (SBTVAR) to specify breakpoints in housing market dynamics during the recent decades. The findings indicate that shifts in interactions between households’ expectations and housing price growth are synchronous with the recent housing boom–bust cycles. The SBTVAR framework outperforms other models as it captures more of the housing market's unique dynamic characteristics. The GTTB index, which governs expectation regime-switching patterns, is able to signal the recent housing bust three periods in advance.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

房价逆调控而上涨的政策性原因与对策

针对近期我国房价快速上涨、房地产商及高价商品房主导市场、住房投机愈演愈烈、中低收入阶层住房困难等问题,作者对北京房地产市场进行了调查研究,并从中发现了一些值得探讨的问题.本文通过对廉租房、经济适用房、商品房、出租房现状及相关政策进行客观分析,揭示了我国高房价的症结及一些政策方面的原因.文中以调查研究为依据,提出了强化政府责任、完善住房保障政策的个人看法与建议.     

A Housing Career Perspective on Risk

The main question analyzed in the article is how uncertainty in the asset price of owner-occupied housing capital affects user costs and consequently housing demand. The analysis is performed within the framework of a dynamic model of planned housing careers. Owner-occupied housing has a dual role as both an asset and a consumption good—a consumption good both now and in the future. By holding owner-occupied housing capital, the risk associated with future purchase of housing can be reduced. Taking account of this, it is shown that the risk premium in the user cost is negative for consumers on a sufficient increasing path of future housing consumption. Hence, the demand for owner-occupied housing of a risk-averse consumer can be increasing in asset price volatility. This result is contrary to the “conventional wisdom” in housing economics and can be identified only within an analytical framework that takes account of the dynamic aspects of housing market behavior.     

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach

It is a well-known fact that the housing market, with its associated mortgage securities, plays a crucial role in modern economies. The recent crisis of 2007, triggered by the U.S. real estate bubble, confirms this key role and suggests the importance of regulating mortgage lending. This paper investigates these issues by designing a housing market with a linked mortgage lending instrument in the Eurace agent-based model. Our results show that the presence of a housing market in the model has relevant macroeconomic implications, driven mainly by the additional amount of endogenous money injected into the economy by new mortgages. This additional money generally helps to support and stabilize aggregated demand, thus improving the main economic indicators. However, if the regulation of mortgage lending is too lax, involving an increase in the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI), then the additional supply of mortgages no longer enhances macroeconomic performance, and the stability of the economic system is undermined. Based on a number of recent discussions, a regulation of stock control that targets households’ net wealth (a stock), rather than income (a flow) is designed and analyzed. The results show that regulation of stock control can be combined effectively with DSTI to increase the stability of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Interestingly, the regulation based on stock control also directly affects mortgage distribution among households, avoiding excessive concentration. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that the use of a mild flow control regulation, coupled with a stricter stock control measure, fosters sustainable growth and eases first-time buyers access to the housing market, encouraging homeownership.

     

构建多部门专业住房保障机构

为确保城镇中低以下生活水平居民能够享受到与经济社会发展相适应住房保障,在我国审核住房体制改革过程中,构建健全完善的专业住房保障机构是基本保证。在市场经济条件下、保障房的提供或供应,是政府的责任和义务。借鉴一些发达国家和地区的经验,就我国目前的住房保障体系不够完善提出了一些问题,并针对住房保障管理机构专业性的构建提出了建议。通过分析与住房保障工作相关部门的职责,如财政部门、国土资源部门、地方政府、以及社会保障、民政、规划、公积金管理等部门,提出了建立和发展多部门专业的住房保障机构。     

Impairment and negative equity in the Irish mortgage market

Amongst the many housing markets across the OECD presently experiencing difficulties, the Irish case stands out. Between 2004 and 2007, a significant house price bubble emerged in Ireland, while the real economy was enjoying persistently strong growth rates. The sharp decline in house prices post 2007 coupled with the significant increase in unemployment has generated a combination of difficulties for the Irish residential market. To date, much of the analysis and discussion of the Irish market has tended to focus on either the concept of mortgage repayment distress or potential negative equity. By examining the issue of credit default in the Irish mortgage market, we focus on the interaction between delinquency (repayment distress) and solvency (negative equity). Building on earlier work, which used the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC), we marry existing estimates of repayment distress with estimates of negative equity for a representative sample of Irish households. Using copula modelling we then examine the dependence structure across the distributions of mortgage delinquency and solvency for these households. As a result, we are in a position to estimate the probability that a household experiencing repayment distress might also be in negative equity.     

我国住房保障政策公平性的缺失

研究了我国住房保障政策的公平性问题.认为目前实施的住房保障政策存在政策覆盖面公平性缺失、政策目标对象偏离和扩大贫富差距等问题.在此基础上,从政策设计、住房建设、资格审核和住房管理等方面对公平性问题的产生原因进行了深入探讨,并提出了保障公平的政策建议.     

政府干预、市场预期与限价房实施——基于广州限价房申购者的问卷分析

本文以广州的限价房实施为例,认为限价房作为政府干预住房的一种方式,主要目的是通过调控使房价稳定在与居民收入水平相适应的合理水平,缓解中等收入自住型的购房压力。这是对市场机制缺陷的弥补而不是取代,重在调节而不是保障,也是既有别于以政府主导为原则的住房保障政策,也有别于以市场调节为主导的其他商品住宅政策。     

Late Neoliberalism: The Financialization of Homeownership and Housing Rights

Over the last few decades we have witnessed a global U‐turn in prevailing housing and urban policy agendas, spread around the world by the driving forces of globalization and neoliberalism. The new paradigm was mainly based on the withdrawal of states from the housing sector and the implementation of policies designed to create stronger and larger market‐based housing finance models. The commodification of housing, together with the increased use of housing as an investment asset within a globalized financial market, has profoundly affected the enjoyment of the right to adequate housing. Taking the World Bank's 1993 manifesto as a starting point and the subprime crisis as its first great international flashpoint, this essay traces some key elements of the neoliberal approach to housing and its impact on the enjoyment of the right to housing in different contexts and times. The reform of housing policy — with all its components of homeownership, private property and binding financial commitments — has been central to the political and ideological strategies through which the dominance of neoliberalism is maintained. Conversely, the crisis (and its origins in the housing market) reflects the inability of market mechanisms to provide adequate and affordable housing for all.     

New Geographies of Residential Capitalism: Financialization of the Turkish Housing Market Since the Early 2000s

The post‐2001 financial crisis era in Turkey gave rise to twin booms in housing construction and credit markets, both of which suffered from the subsequent debt crisis. The financial transformation of the economy in conjunction with state‐led urban legislation reform had significant effects on the housing market in terms of commodification of housing, countrywide construction activities and substantial increases in household debt and construction company loans. The changing role and function of the state as a direct provider of housing can be regarded as actually existing neoliberalism providing favourable conditions for financialization, as it ushered in the commodification of housing. The Turkish government, together with the government‐backed housing agency, metropolitan municipalities and publicly owned real‐estate investment company, has been active in nationwide housing construction and urban regeneration projects. This article argues that there is a lack of synchrony between the commodification of housing and the financialization of the household sector owing to the institutional setting of the mortgage system and structural macroeconomic problems. Rather, housing commodification has been accompanied by the financialization of the corporate sector through a steep rise in the external debt burden of construction companies.     

Assisted Self-help Housing in Mexico: Advocacy, (Micro)Finance and the Making of Markets

This article examines forms of housing finance that offer poor households opportunities for sourcing resources for construction work through non-mortgage microloans. In Mexico, these housing microfinance schemes have recently been incorporated into national housing policies. On a global level, the past 10 to 15 years have seen the emergence of institutional investment in microfinance. I reflect on these processes in this article by bringing critical accounts of financial inclusion in development studies and the debate on financialization within urban studies and beyond into dialogue. I combine micro- and macro-scale perspectives to examine how households become financial clients and how finance gains influence by expanding capitalist markets into the informal housing sector. This discussion is based on policy review and document analyses and an empirically grounded account of an assisted self-help housing case study. In the article I draw on three focal concepts—risk, debt and marketization—to highlight the ambivalences of the expanded access to finance for poor households engaged in self-organized building practices. These ambivalences emerge from the multiplicity of operational logics and motivations in the field of housing provision for the poor, and the profoundly conflicting rationalities of financial- and social-sector actors.