全球价值链视角下中国加工贸易的转型升级

全球价值链(GVC)为发展中国家嵌入价值创造环节,提高生产和创新能力,实现产业结构的调整与升级带来了机遇.我国加工贸易始终处于低附加值环节,加工贸易的发展也是以高能耗、 高污染为代价,是不可持续的.加工贸易的转型升级成为我国亟待解决的重大问题之一.     

全球价值链嵌入的生产率效应——基于双向嵌入视角

本文通过构建全球价值链(GVC)后向嵌入深度前向嵌入深度指标,分别测算了中国制造业行业双向嵌入全球价值链的深度,并利用2008-2013年中国微观企业数据分析和检验GVC双向嵌入深度与企业生产率之间的关系。实证的结果表明:①中国行业的GVC后向嵌入深度与企业全要素生产率存在"U"型关系,GVC前向嵌入深度与企业生产率存在倒"U"型关系。②中国的GVC后向嵌入的生产率效应会受到企业出口规模的影响,出口企业的生产率受到GVC后向嵌入的作用比非出口企业大。③中低技术行业的GVC后嵌入深度对企业的生产率呈正"U"型的关系,来自发达国家的"低端锁定"限制几乎对中低技术行业的企业没有影响。     

OEM企业突破俘获型网络的升级路径研究

OEM企业以代工方式嵌入全球价值链(GVC)由低端向高端升级时,会遭到跨国公司的封锁,形成俘获型网络。本文通过OEM企业与跨国公司之间的动态博弈模型,建立以GVC附加值分布、空间分离度和升级模式为维度的OEM企业升级路径模型,并提出6条主要升级路径。OEM企业只有积极与全球价值链中间企业进行互动,同时嵌入跨国公司主导和中间企业主导的价值链分工体系中,获得最大程度的技术溢出和知识转移,才能最终实现价值链攀升。     

基于价值权力争夺的浙商企业GVG体系自主构建研究

嵌入于全球价值链中的"浙商"企业价值绝对量保持增长、但是价值份额下降的现实,明显背离于GVC理论的理论结论,GVC"升级"事实上是"伪升级"。针对GVC的理论立场与逻辑悖论,文章以价值权力获取为新的价值假设,认为构建自主的全球价值体系,是新一轮全球价值体系重构中"浙商"企业的根本出路。     

经济政策不确定性、对外直接投资与全球价值链攀升

通过对外直接投资能否推动企业攀升全球价值链(GVC)中高端,是开放的中国经济高质量发展亟需破解的问题。在世界百年未有之大变局的时代背景下,不确定性的冲击深刻影响着企业对外投资的战略和决策。本文基于2007—2019年中国行业层面的对外直接投资和投入产出表数据,引入国内国际经济政策不确定性变量,综合考察经济政策不确定冲击下,对外直接投资是否促进中国企业实现全球价值链升级。研究结果显示,中国对外直接投资产生了显著的GVC降级效应,世界经济政策不确定性的调节作用强化了这一负效应。分行业看,服务业对外直接投资显著拖累了中国全球价值链升级,且中国经济政策的调整波动对制造业攀升GVC起到了明显的抑制作用。因此,应当提升中国企业对外直接投资的质量和绩效,完善对外投资的经济宏观调控政策工具,积极布局自主安全可控的区域价值链,构筑促进和提升国内大循环的缓冲地带和外部环境。     

GVC/NVC双重嵌入中传统制造企业动态能力提升路径研究——以毛织企业为例

文章基于价值链—资源—能力的分析框架,以颖祺实业与英伟实业两家毛织企业作为案例研究对象,探寻其动态能力提升的路径、策略并进行对比研究,发现GVC/NVC双重嵌入是这类企业提升动态能力、转型升级的普遍路径。具体为传统制造企业从双重嵌入中获取信息、知识和资源,通过组织学习内化后实现企业动态能力的提升。     

中国参与全球价值链的特征与启示

研究目标：揭示2000年以来中国参与全球价值链（GVC）的程度、位置、竞争力特征，以及与主要经济体在GVC中的双边联系特征。研究方法：采用新近发展的生产分解模型，从前向联系和后向联系两个视角全面分析。研究发现：中国在GVC中的国际竞争力主要体现在制造业部门，已经具备“制造强国”的基本特征，接近GVC的中上游位置。大多数国家都对中国市场形成了高度的依赖性，同时中国成长为全球中间品的最大供应国，在GVC中扮演着关键的“枢纽”角色。研究创新：在一个统一的核算框架下，本文从多重视角首次对中国参与GVC的特征做出系统性的论述。研究价值：本文对于决策部门评价中国参与GVC的成效，研判国际经济关系，制定对外经济政策具有重要参考价值。     

人工智能与全球价值链网络深化

发展以人工智能为代表的高新技术是中国推动高质量对外开放、实现更高水平融入全球价值链分工网络的重要依托。本文基于Melitz(2003)和Bai等(2019),在异质性企业出口决策模型中引入人工智能，将企业出口模型拓展至企业增加值出口模型，并实证检验了人工智能发展对GVC网络深化的影响和内在机制。本文研究结果显示，各国人工智能产业的进步能显著促进GVC网络的深化。人工智能对GVC网络的积极影响主要是通过劳动力替代和缓解资源错配实现。相比于发达国家，人工智能对深化发展中国家GVC网络的促进效应更强；相比于高出口依赖型国家，对低出口依赖型国家的积极效应更加突出。人工智能除了影响各国GVC网络的深化外，还能延长GVC长度，增强GVC竞争力，以及推动各国向GVC上游攀升。这一发现对当前“双循环”新发展格局构建——“内循环为主、外循环赋能”具有重要的战略指引。     

全球价值链下江苏计算机产业升级路径研究

本论文研究的主要目标是在承接国际产业转移以及生产国际化的条件下,应如何发挥加工贸易在新型工业化下的战略作用,促进加工贸易进一步扩大规模、加长产业链、提高本地采购率、加快技术进步与产业升级,从而充分发挥跨国公司的技术外溢效应,带动当地相关产业的技术进步与产业升级,提升江苏计算机产业竞争力。然后,对全球价值链理论需进一步研究的问题及其对江苏OEM企业与产业集群嵌入全球价值链实现产业升级方面的启示进行了探讨。     

外资研发对中国制造业自主创新的行业影响

文章运用面板随机系数模型（PRCC）重点分析了外资研发对中国32个工业行业自主创新活动的影响。研究结果表明,由于中国企业嵌入全球价值链的环节,吸收隐含知识的效率以及人力资本积累等原因,现阶段在石油加工、橡胶制造业、化学纤维制造业等产业中,外资研发对国内企业自主创新能力具有显著的促进效应,而在造纸及纸制品业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、医药制造业等产业中,外资企业研发产生了明显的抑制效应。     

中国大中型企业研发效率测度与财政激励政策影响

研究目标：政府研发补贴、研发活动加计扣除税收减免以及高技术企业税收减免对企业研发效率的影响。研究方法：应用随机前沿模型（SFA）测度和比较中国各省份大中型工业企业的研发效率并检验三种财政激励政策对研发效率的影响。研究发现：各省份大中型工业企业研发效率逐年提高,但省份间整体研发效率差距较大,且东部沿海地区研发效率整体较中西部地区高;政府研发补贴和企业研发活动加计扣除减免都与研发效率呈稳定负相关,而高新技术企业税收减免与研发效率则呈稳定正相关。研究创新：从效率角度探究我国当前三种主要财政激励政策对企业研发绩效的影响。研究价值：从新的视角为我国未来财政政策如何定位和设计实施提供经验证据。     

Did working families' tax credit work? The impact of in-work support on labour supply in Great Britain

In-work benefits are promoted as a way to make low-income families better off without introducing adverse work incentives. In 1999, the structure of in-work benefits in the UK changed, and their generosity almost doubled, through the introduction of Working Families' Tax Credit (WFTC). With micro-data from before and after its introduction, a structural model of labour supply and programme participation estimates that, by 2002, WFTC had increased labour supply of lone mothers by around 5.1 percentage points, slightly reduced labour supply of mothers in couples by 0.6 percentage points, and increased the labour supply of fathers in couples by 0.8 percentage points, compared with the programme that preceded it. Other tax and benefit reforms contemporaneous with WFTC acted to reduce the labour supply of parents, though. Without any form of in-work benefit in the UK, labour force participation by lone mothers would be around 45 percent, rather than the 55 per cent we now observe. Participating in family credit, the UK's in-work programme before October 1999, conferred a utility loss as well as a utility gain from the extra income, but this utility cost of participation was lower in the final year of WFTC than under previous programmes for lone mothers, and no different for individuals in couples: this in itself induced more lone mothers to work.     

Speaking to Theorists and Searching for Facts: Tax Morale and Tax Compliance in Experiments

A significant body of research has been accumulated concerning tax morale and tax compliance. This paper takes a stroll through the experimental findings, focussing on personal income. After briefly discussing the traditional topic of deterrence the main focus is on the social and institutional factors which until now have received only limited attention.     

上市公司税负及其影响因素分析——来自沪深股市的经验证据

本文以1994￣2004年全国上市公司9536组数据为样本,考察上市公司税负及其影响因素,结果发现:上市公司总体税负偏重;总体税负存在地区差异;总体税负存在行业差异;总体税负与所得税负担、流转税负担、资产规模、盈利能力、资本密集度和年度变量显著正相关,与负债水平和投资收益显著负相关。     

我国信用信息共享现状及征信模式研究

本文介绍了我国信用信息共享发展现状,分析了三种典型的信用信息共享模式。根据我国实际情况,构建一种“现阶段以公共征信模式为主导,不断完善我国信用信息共享外部环境建设,积极发展私营征信模式,建立一种‘公共与私营相结合,全国统一’的信用信息共享模式”,为促进我国社会信用体系健康发展起到积极的推动作用。     

Tax aggressiveness and idiosyncratic volatility

This study finds that aggressive tax strategies adopted by a firm affect idiosyncratic stock return volatility. Aggressive tax strategies, which I measure as tax paid by a firm divided by pretax income (adjusted for special items), are associated with higher levels of idiosyncratic stock volatility. Uncertainty associated with tax strategies may result due to several factors, such as penalties, fines, and additional tax payments if particular tax strategies are disallowed by taxation authorities, or if there are changes in tax rules. Such uncertainty affects the future cash flows of a firm and is reflected in more volatile stock returns. Financial constraints, corporate governance mechanisms, and information environments surrounding a firm influence the relation between idiosyncratic volatility and effective tax rates.     

个税起征点改革对纳税能力的影响：基于居民收入分布的估算

本文分析了个税起征点变动对纳税能力的影响机理。本文基于2005~2012年我国居民收入分组数据,采用构建的收入分布纳税能力测算积分模型和PLS路径模型,估算了我国居民个人所得税纳税能力和个税起征点改革对纳税能力的影响效应。研究发现,2005年以来我国居民平均收入水平有较大的提高,收入分布呈厚尾分布特征,其标准差呈弱平的倒“U”形变化趋势。2006年和2008年两次个税起征点的调整并没有改变纳税能力的增长态势,却影响着税务部门的征缴行为,税收努力指数的波动表明,税制改革与征纳税人预期行为的强关联关系,2011年的个税起征点改革对纳税能力有较大影响;PLS路径模型估计显示,居民收入的增长对纳税能力影响最大,个税起征点改革则是通过增加居民收入、影响征缴行为来间接地影响纳税能力。     

Coordination of capital taxation among asymmetric countries

This paper studies international fiscal coordination in a world of integrated markets and sovereign national governments. Mobile capital and immobile labor are taxed in order to finance a fixed budget. This generates productive inefficiency. Two fiscal reforms are considered: a minimum capital tax level and a tax range, i.e., a minimum plus a maximum capital tax level. It is shown that the introduction of a lower bound to the capital tax level is never preferred to fiscal competition by all countries while there always exists a combination of both a lower and an upper bound (i.e., a tax range) which is unanimously accepted.     

Can partial fiscal coordination be welfare worsening?: A model of tax competition

Most work on tax competition argues that mobile factors tend to be undertaxed except if there is coordination of tax policies. Full coordination is not however always feasible, and as a consequence some measures of partial coordination have been proposed such as minimal withholding taxes on interest income. We show that partial coordination can be in some instances welfare worsening and that then no coordination is to be preferred.     

Credit rating changes and debt structure

Through examination of the relationship between rating levels and subsequent annual net debt changes, Kisgen (2006) provides support for the Credit Rationing – Capital Structure (CR-CS) hypothesis which maintains that “+” or “−” notch firms are more likely than non-notch firms to reduce net debt levels to increase the likelihood of a beneficial rating change. We add to the credit rating literature by focusing on quarterly net debt changes over the two years before and after rating changes to provide evidence that notch firms are generally not associated with lower net debt levels, greater net debt reductions, or higher probability of upgrades than non-notch firms before rating changes. Instead, notch firms with CW announcements are associated with relatively greater net debt level increases beginning three quarters before rating changes and these increases continue for firms both without and with CW announcements after the rating change. Further, in analysis of the strength of upgrades (UP) relative to downgrades (DOWN) at the time of rating change, we show that the UP/DOWN ratio is more a function of the presence of prior CreditWatch (CR) announcements than notch status. Firms without and with CW announcements exhibit UP/DOWN ratios of 0.8455 and 0.3628, respectively, with no significant differences in these ratios between notch and non-notch firms.