中国贸易产品多样性的测度及动态分析

本文调整了传统测算多样性指数的方法,对我国HS6位编码的进出口产品多样性进行了测度,并使用马尔可夫链模型对其发展趋势进行动态分析。研究表明,我国贸易产品波动尤其是出口产品的波动还将维持在一个较高的水平,劳动密集型产品作为我国贸易优势产品,对我国贸易进一步向竞争更为激烈的资本技术密集型产品领域扩展起到降低风险、稳定发展的作用。进口贸易也将通过调整进口产品结构,促进资本、技术等引进加快我国贸易结构的转型升级。本文的研究拟为评价我国贸易质量、制定贸易转型政策提供有效参考。     

贸易同盟、二元扩张与中国出口的双重优势

本研究基于异质性理论考察关税减免的贸易二元边际扩张效应,通过GTAP软件研究中国内地与香港双边贸易CEPA协议的远期效应,结果发现两地市场充分自由化后CEPA发挥了同盟区的贸易创造效应,内地对港贸易的二元边际保持明显的增长收益,其中外延边际更为显著。研究还发现低替代弹性产品越能够获得自由化的贸易收益,这显示我国内陆企业具有充分的差异化（多样性）国际竞争优势。研究表明市场自由化的国际区域性同盟可成为维持和发挥我国出口贸易“双重大国优势”的新来源。     

The micro evolution of trade and turnover in Turkey under the global crisis

We provide evidence on the effects of the 2009 crisis on Turkish manufacturing. The exploration of firm and firm-product extensive and intensive margins confirms the prevalence of the latter in the fall of export sales and discloses the former's relevance in the dramatic import contraction. The analysis of firm and product heterogeneity reveals that productivity drove the negative evolution of the export intensive margin to such an extent that it significantly affected trade extensive margins and postponable goods were the most affected products. In addition, the foreign demand shock suffered by exporters propagated to their import demand. Interestingly, we show that the crisis hit produced exports less than the carry-along ones and that the domestic market cushioned the downturn effects especially for larger firms. This hints at the importance of domestic counter-cyclical policies.     

The Role of Export Market Participation in the Choice of Organizational Form of Production Technology*

This paper shows that the reason for a higher capital–labour ratio, observed for exporting firms, is a higher capital intensity of their production technology. Exporters choose to use different organizational forms of their production process, in which the share of capital and intermediate inputs in the final output is higher than that of non‐exporters. The organization of the production process is part of the firm's organizational strategy, which generates within‐industry heterogeneity in factor intensities and production technologies. The results of this study indicate that the decision to export is preceded by a process of restructuring production technology, which then has the effect of increasing a firms’ productivity and in so doing prepares them for competition in the global market.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Micro Enterprises: Do Banks Matter? Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This paper looks at the impact of trade liberalization on micro enterprises with differential access to banks. I use Indian data on rural micro enterprises employing less than ten workers in the manufacturing sector to find that trade liberalization, measured by a fall in the tariff, is associated with a larger increase or a smaller decrease in output, capital–labour ratio and labour productivity in districts with a larger number of bank branches per capita. Evidence is consistent with strong complementarities between trade liberalization effects, and the economic dynamism and access to financial intermediation associated with greater bank presence in the enterprise's location. The study underscores that trade liberalization can be beneficial to micro entrepreneurs under certain conditions and emphasizes reallocation resulting from trade liberalization. The study hence highlights the role for development policy in exploiting gains from trade.     

The effects of trade exposure on technical efficiency: New evidence from the Turkish rubber industry

When a country's foreign trade regime becomes more open, international trade theory suggests that domestic firms face more competition and start to operate more efficiently to reduce their production costs. This proposition is empirically examined by using plant-level data from the Turkish rubber industry during a period of substantial trade liberalization: technical efficiency levels improved significantly when Turkey's trade regime shifted from a restrictive to a more liberalized one. Incumbent plants located closer to international markets improved technical efficiency more than the other plants. These findings suggest that the improvement in technical efficiency was due largely to trade liberalization.     

资本市场开放提高了审计费用吗？——基于行业竞争和市场竞争地位的双重调节效应

资本市场开放后,互联互通机制引进了国际资本和先进治理经验,这既增加境内资本市场信息风险水平,亦带来监督效应,审计费用也发生相应变化。基于2010—2019年中国上市公司数据分析发现：在资本市场开放后,上市公司审计费用显著提高;行业竞争程度负向调节资本市场开放对审计费用的正向影响且这一调节作用在高市场竞争地位的公司中更显著,而市场竞争地位负调节效应主要体现在高竞争行业中。结果表明,行业竞争与市场竞争地位会对资本市场开放与审计费用的关系产生双重调节效应,资本市场开放有助于低竞争行业公司和高竞争行业中的低市场竞争地位公司提高审计质量需求。进一步研究表明,资本市场开放后,非国有企业和内控弱有效企业审计费用显著提高。     

Liquidity constrained exporters

I propose a model of international trade with liquidity constraints. If firms must pay a fixed entry cost in order to access foreign markets, and if they face liquidity constraints to finance these costs, only those firms that have sufficient liquidity are able to export. A set of firms could profitably export, but are prevented from doing so because they lack sufficient liquidity. More productive firms that generate large liquidity from their domestic sales, and wealthier firms that inherit a large amount of liquidity, are more likely to export. This model offers a potential explanation for the apparent lack of sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. When the exchange rate appreciates, existing exporters lose competitiveness abroad, and are forced to reduce their exports. At the same time, the value of domestic assets owned by potential exporters increases. Some liquidity constrained exporters start exporting. This dampens the anti-competitiveness impact of a currency appreciation. Under some conditions, it may reverse it altogether and increase aggregate exports. In this sense, the model is able to rationalize the co-existence of competitive devaluations and competitive revaluations.     

Do Natural Barriers Affect the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Growth?*

This article investigates whether there are threshold effects in the relationship between openness and productivity growth that are fashioned by a country's natural barriers, using a cross‐country growth model. Alternative methods of modelling thresholds are explored. An endogenous threshold model is shown to be preferable to the use of interaction effects. The results identify critical levels of natural barriers which affect how greater openness or liberalization impacts on productivity growth. We find that only countries with higher natural barriers receive growth benefits from trade liberalization.     

Growth and the dynamics of trade liberalization

This paper develops a model of ongoing trade liberalization as a self-enforcing equilibrium in a game between governments. Economic growth is a critical ingredient in successful trade liberalization. But differences in national growth rates have profound differences on the sustainable tariff equilibria of the game. If international technology spillovers are not concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster growing countries will be more protectionist, setting higher tariffs and liberalizing trade at a later date. But with spillovers more concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster-growing countries may be less protectionist. Differences in growth rates lead the process of trade liberalization to be far from reciprocal. A sustainable trade liberalization may actually involve one country pursuing a unilateral policy of free trade, even though its trading partner imposes tariffs against it.     

Strategic trade policy with bargaining over managerial contracts

This paper re‐examines the well‐known activist regime's inefficiency (governments set export subsidies) in a sales–delegation game with owner–manager bargaining over contracts. Contrary to the received literature, this bargaining process may (a) induce governments to set a tax if products are not too substitute or complements and (b) lead to an efficient (inefficient) equilibrium provided that products are sufficiently differentiated (not too complements). Therefore, unilateral public intervention can be optimal: in case of rival governments' retaliation, under appropriate product competition degrees, welfares are larger than under free trade even for small managers' power. Thus, managerial delegation practices are crucial also for international trade issues.     

Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh: A general equilibrium approach

India and Bangladesh have pursued policies of trade liberalization since the early 1990s. However, owing to the differential speeds of opening up, Bangladesh's bilateral trade deficit with India widened substantially over the years. This aggravated the economic and the political tensions between the economies. It has been held that promotion of free trade between the two economies may enhance the trade and hence economic cooperation between them. Against this backdrop the present paper proposes a theoretical framework that provides a general equilibrium determination of the commodity pattern of trade and hence locates the comparative advantages of the economies. The empirical implementation of the model considers trade in 25 sectors comparable in the input–output tables of the economies. The study isolates the gains from free trade accruing to either economy. The paper also explores the pattern of bilateral trade when each economy produces goods by utilizing their own as well as the other country's technology. The gains from this trading arrangement are also isolated.     

REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND POVERTY: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS AND THE EVIDENCE

While there is an extensive literature on the impact of regional trading agreements on trade and capital flows, as well as on the relationship between international trade, growth, and poverty there is comparatively little treatment of the possible linkages between regional integration and poverty. We analyze the channels through which regional integration could impact on poverty, and then review the existing evidence on the impact of regional integration on poverty. We focus on two key characteristics that make any regional integration process different from unilateral and multilateral liberalization: first, the asymmetric nature of the liberalization process; second, the scope or ambition of the regional liberalization being undertaken and the nature of the institutional arrangements that are put into place to manage the process of regional integration. We also distinguish between short, medium, and long run effects on poverty of regional integration processes. There is some direct evidence explicitly linking regional integration and poverty, but in good part the shedding of the light depends on an indirect literature on trade, FDI, migration, and inequality.     

Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence

Abstract.  Many empirical studies based on plant-level data have found that firms that enter the export markets are more productive than non-exporters and that this difference in productivity is achieved before firms become involved in exporting. These findings have challenged the traditional view that openness to trade increases productivity and economic growth. This article reconsiders the literature on trade, growth, and trade policies and argues that a careful examination of these new findings is consistent with the idea that exporting increases productivity and economic growth.     

Turnover intentions among repatriated employees in an emerging economy: the Indian experience

In the present global environment, liberalization of international trade and the intense international competition, it has become more important for multinational corporations (MNCs) to internationalize their business. In the course of the internationalization, it is imperative that MNCs need to offer their employees the possibility of working abroad (called expatriation). However, studies have shown that when expatriates return to the home organization, called repatriation, it is related to many problems and these problems are not always taken seriously. Therefore, this article describes several repatriation processes undertaken by Indian Information Technology (IT) MNCs and how effective they are at lowering repatriates' turnover intentions. To fulfill this objective, first, the article reviews the literature on turnover intention among repatriates and then an empirical quantitative study is developed with a sample of 292 repatriates who have recently returned to India. The results indicated that the surveyed repatriates believed that perceived support during international assignment and upon return from assignment are two most important variables to increase the repatriate's retention and lack of it thereof was likely to generate unfavorable attitudes toward the company and higher turnover intention.     

Trade,competitiveness and investment: an empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

The Eurozone crisis has exposed several weaknesses of the European Monetary Union economies. This paper aims to assess the impact on external competitiveness of an expansionary capital stock policy that could contribute to reduce the trade balance asymmetries within the EU and help European exporters to recover their competitive role in international markets. A policy action to increase capital stock accumulation through investment in selected European countries could generate a double dividend: increasing both price and nonprice competitiveness, so stimulating their competitive position as exporters, and consolidating the growth path of EU economy. The analysis employs a bilateral trade model built at INFORUM with several distinguishing characteristics: a comprehensive bilateral data set, econometric estimation of key parameters, and emphasis on sectoral details. Our findings show that a capital stock increase is effective in narrowing trade imbalances within EU. Heterogeneous effects are estimated for commodities in China and the US.     

The impact of intellectual property rights protection on trade: The role of a “third country” in market power and market expansion effects

This study analyzes the impact of increased protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in importing countries on the inventing countries’ exports in the presence of “third countries.” In this study, “third countries” include all countries that compete with the inventing countries in exporting similar products to the importing countries. The most significant contribution of this study is to develop an alternative empirical approach for analyzing the impact of IPRs on trade flows. This approach considers three players (the inventing/exporting country, the importing country, and “third countries”) and thus is tentatively called the “three-country model.” The findings confirm that our “three-country model” provides important insights into the impact of IPR protection on international trade, especially in the context of increasingly fierce competition in international trade. We found that the emergence of a third country restrains the market power effects and stimulates market expansion effects. Specifically, when a third country appears, the increased protection of IPRs in the importing countries encourages the inventing countries to increase their exports. However, the export elasticity of IPR protection is highest for primary products and lowest for technology-intensive and human capital–intensive products.     

改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

研究目标：研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法：基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现：在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在“入世”准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在“入世”增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新：对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值：针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。     

Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s agro-food sectors under liberalized agricultural trade: a case for national product differentiation

Russia is a major importer of agro-food products in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), whereas Kazakhstan’s agro-food sector is more export-oriented. Based on a multi-market-model with bilateral trade, the paper investigates how a Common Agricultural Market (CAM) and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession would affect prices, quantities, and welfare on agro-food markets in both countries. Trade diversion effects are expected because of a changed tariff structure. Kazakhstan’s agro-food sector will loose price competitiveness on Russia’s markets if liberalization is too narrowly focused on import tariffs. Simulations also suggest that national product differentiation can be part of a strategy for Russian agro-food industries to cope with stronger international competition.     

The political economy of financial reform: How robust are huang's findings?

Using new data on financial liberalization taken from Abiad et al. (2008, IMF Working Papers, No. 08/266) for 62 countries over the period 1975–2005, we show that some of the main findings of Huang's (2009, Journal of Applied Econometrics 24 : 1207–1213) replication study on the drivers of financial liberalization are not robust. Major changes concern the effect of democracy on financial reform and the supposed relationship between the desired level of financial liberalization and a country's per capita income. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.