贸易同盟、二元扩张与中国出口的双重优势

本研究基于异质性理论考察关税减免的贸易二元边际扩张效应,通过GTAP软件研究中国内地与香港双边贸易CEPA协议的远期效应,结果发现两地市场充分自由化后CEPA发挥了同盟区的贸易创造效应,内地对港贸易的二元边际保持明显的增长收益,其中外延边际更为显著。研究还发现低替代弹性产品越能够获得自由化的贸易收益,这显示我国内陆企业具有充分的差异化（多样性）国际竞争优势。研究表明市场自由化的国际区域性同盟可成为维持和发挥我国出口贸易“双重大国优势”的新来源。     

Growth and the dynamics of trade liberalization

This paper develops a model of ongoing trade liberalization as a self-enforcing equilibrium in a game between governments. Economic growth is a critical ingredient in successful trade liberalization. But differences in national growth rates have profound differences on the sustainable tariff equilibria of the game. If international technology spillovers are not concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster growing countries will be more protectionist, setting higher tariffs and liberalizing trade at a later date. But with spillovers more concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster-growing countries may be less protectionist. Differences in growth rates lead the process of trade liberalization to be far from reciprocal. A sustainable trade liberalization may actually involve one country pursuing a unilateral policy of free trade, even though its trading partner imposes tariffs against it.     

Does digital service trade boost technological innovation?: International evidence

Digital technology is profoundly changing the international economic and trade pattern, and digital service trade is increasingly becoming an important carrier of transnational knowledge spillover. This study investigates the relationship between digital service trade and technological innovation. Based on the panel data of 131 countries from 2005 to 2020, empirical results show that digital service trade significantly promotes technological innovation. This study shows that digital service trade can promote technological innovation through four mechanisms: increasing income incentives, accelerating knowledge spillover, triggering trade liberalization, and promoting financial deepening. The results of panel threshold model show that economic development, urbanization, and population aging can lead to regime changes in the innovation effect of digital service trade. In addition, the results of heterogeneity test show that national characteristics such as economic development, per capita income, industrialization, and economic freedom, influence the innovation effect of digital service trade. Our findings have implications for developing an international innovation cooperation system based on digital service trade.     

国际贸易对气候变化的影响研究综述

随着世界贸易量的急剧增长,贸易自由化引起了一系列对气候变化问题的思考:贸易自由化是否导致温室气体排放的增加?贸易对气候变化影响的程度到底有多大?围绕这些问题,国内外学者进行了大量研究。文章在对国际贸易与气候变化关系的文献进行梳理后,侧重于分析贸易自由化对气候变化影响的研究,主要围绕三个方面对现有文献进行述评:对外贸易的环境效应、环境库茨涅茨曲线、国际贸易隐含碳。这些研究对我国减排目标和政策的制定都具有重要的启示。     

The short and long-run impact of globalization if firms differ in factor input ratios

Empirical evidence has shown that exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters. Based on this evidence, I construct a two-factor general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity in factor intensities, monopolistic competition, scale economies and international trade. This setting can explain several empirical regularities on international trade, factor market competition, factor relocations and factor returns: (i) exporters are more capital intensive than non-exporters, regardless of a country's relative factor endowments; (ii) finite supply of capital limits a country's export activities; (iii) trade liberalization increases the relative return to capital; (iv) new profit opportunities in export markets change the distribution of firms towards the more capital intensive ones. Finally, I extend the setting to endogenous capital accumulation and show that trade liberalization induces economic growth and, in the long-run, benefits all factors in real terms.     

农产品贸易技术壁垒及对策探析

随着全球经济自由化,技术贸易壁垒(TBT)越来越复杂、越来越严格。本文就目前存在的一些问题,提出了将如何应对农产品的贸易技术壁垒的对策建议。     

创新检验检疫 积极应对后危机时代技术贸易壁垒

随着经济全球化和贸易自由化进程的加快,关税壁垒作用日益减弱,技术性贸易措施成为更隐蔽、更难以对付的贸易壁垒,成为各国保护产业和促进对外贸易发展的重要手段,也对我国对外贸易健康发展造成了极大的阻碍。作为站在国家贸易最前沿的以技术为依托的检验检疫部门,在新的形势下,如何发挥自身优势,采取扎实有效的应对措施,打破国外技术壁垒,将技术性壁垒给我国出口贸易造成的损害最小化,促进我国对外贸易的健康发展,是本文讨论的重点。     

Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

论国际服务贸易自由化与中国服务业的对外开放

当前国际服务贸易自由化趋势已成为强劲的时代潮流。在此背景下,中国应如何开放服务业以把握机遇,又该如何实行适度保护以规避风险,这些都是亟待解决的问题。文中首先分析了国际服务贸易自由化对中国服务业和服务贸易的影响,继而提出了中国服务业实现对外开放的模式、原则及策略。     

水产品出口的技术性贸易壁垒及法律对策

随着贸易自由化进程加快,关税逐渐降低,进出口数量配额、许可证制度、外汇管制等非关税措施日益受到约束和限制,相反以技术法规、技术标准、认证制度、检验制度为主要内容的技术性贸易措施突出,影响和作用也越来越大,技术性贸易壁垒成为最普遍、最难以对付的贸易壁垒。     

银行业改革、赶超与开放——基于Malmquist TFP指数的实证分析

为评估近年来中国国有银行改革、城市商业银行赶超与银行业对外全面开放5年来外资银行效率的变化,主要采取"中介法",利用2005～2010年数据对中国本土和外资银行Malmquist TFP指数及其组成部分进行了测算分解和实证分析。研究表明:改革促进了中国银行业效率的提高;城市商业银行的"赶超"战略显著提升了效率;中国本土银行的纯技术效率亟待改善;中国银行业对外全面开放后,外资银行的全要素生产率有所提高,但规模效率和技术进步有待改进;股权/资产比率等因素降低了银行效率。     

Efficiency measurements and the gains from trade under transaction costs

The paper investigates the measurement of economic efficiency under transaction costs in a second best world. New measurements of technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, and price efficiency are proposed. They have three desirable properties. First, they measure efficiency loss in monetary units. Second, they are additive and can be conveniently summed into an overall efficiency measure. Third, they allow for transaction costs and their effects on prices and trade incentives. The paper investigates the welfare effects of technology choice, government pricing and trade policy, and market imperfections on efficiency. It provides new insights on the measurement of benefits from trade liberalization when trade affects not only price efficiency, but also technical and allocative efficiency.

企业海关事务合规管理新视角

随着经济的全球化及贸易自由化的发展，国际社会在货物跨境贸易中越来越强调并要求简化和协调货物在国际贸易各项活动中所涉及的各种程序。为了给贸易发展创造良好的内外部环境，我国海关不断借鉴国外通关管理经验，创新便捷通关模式；近年来我国海关大力推广的通关无纸化模式旨在从原有的海关通关监管重点集中在口岸的实际通关时段，逐步转向对货物乃至企业的后续监管及核查，有效缓解通关口岸的时效压力。面对机遇与挑战，企业在充分运用海关便捷通关模式提高通关效益的同时，更应该进一步思考并探索运用先进的技术管理工具辅之以有效的内控流程加强内部海关事务合规管理，有效防范并规避通关隐患和风险。     

Does economic liberalization promote economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis

The study aims to examine the short and long term impacts of economic liberalization on economic growth in case of Pakistan from 1971 to 2011. Economic liberalization consists of reforms in both trade liberalization and financial liberalization. This study contributes to the existing literature by constructing an economic liberalization index using principal component analysis. Our results show, firstly, that economic liberalization reforms have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. However, trade liberalization is negatively associated with economic growth in the long-run. Secondly, the estimated coefficients through rolling window show that impact of economic liberalization on real GDP is unstable during the selected period of sample. This study recommends to policy makers to enhance human capital by having more expenditure on education sector. In addition, financial reforms by way of a sectoral credit allocation should be introduced to further promote the economic growth.     

REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND POVERTY: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSMISSION CHANNELS AND THE EVIDENCE

While there is an extensive literature on the impact of regional trading agreements on trade and capital flows, as well as on the relationship between international trade, growth, and poverty there is comparatively little treatment of the possible linkages between regional integration and poverty. We analyze the channels through which regional integration could impact on poverty, and then review the existing evidence on the impact of regional integration on poverty. We focus on two key characteristics that make any regional integration process different from unilateral and multilateral liberalization: first, the asymmetric nature of the liberalization process; second, the scope or ambition of the regional liberalization being undertaken and the nature of the institutional arrangements that are put into place to manage the process of regional integration. We also distinguish between short, medium, and long run effects on poverty of regional integration processes. There is some direct evidence explicitly linking regional integration and poverty, but in good part the shedding of the light depends on an indirect literature on trade, FDI, migration, and inequality.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Micro Enterprises: Do Banks Matter? Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This paper looks at the impact of trade liberalization on micro enterprises with differential access to banks. I use Indian data on rural micro enterprises employing less than ten workers in the manufacturing sector to find that trade liberalization, measured by a fall in the tariff, is associated with a larger increase or a smaller decrease in output, capital–labour ratio and labour productivity in districts with a larger number of bank branches per capita. Evidence is consistent with strong complementarities between trade liberalization effects, and the economic dynamism and access to financial intermediation associated with greater bank presence in the enterprise's location. The study underscores that trade liberalization can be beneficial to micro entrepreneurs under certain conditions and emphasizes reallocation resulting from trade liberalization. The study hence highlights the role for development policy in exploiting gains from trade.     

Trade Liberalization and Industrial Restructuring: The Role of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper analyzes industry adjustments to trade liberalization. It introduces cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as an alternative mode of industrial restructuring to firms' exit. In a two-country Cournot model, we examine the responses of domestic and foreign firms endowed with different technologies for different stages of trade openness. It is found that the less efficient firm loses market shares in its home market at the beginning of trade liberalization. Only for a more advanced level of liberalization, does it take advantage of a larger access to foreign demand. Trade liberalization may therefore harm its profits too strongly, forcing it to leave the market. However, although its incentives decrease with trade liberalization, the high-technology firm may be willing to take it over for low organizational and technological costs of firms' integration. In addition, it may buy it out even if the less efficient firm manages to stay. Then, trade liberalization affects M&A incentives depending on the technological gap. For low and high (medium) gap, there is an inverted U- (W-) shaped relation between trade costs and incentives to merge. Moreover, although technology transfer is assumed to be complete, M&A may lead to a reduction in consumers' welfare. Firms may capture some pro-competitive gains from economic openness. Lastly, an empirical analysis based on a data set of OECD members' multinationals gives some support to these theoretical predictions.     

影响国际旅游服务ⅡT的基本因素研究

全球经济一体化以及区域经济一体化进程的深入使国际旅游服务贸易得到了蓬勃发展。文中首次将产业内贸易(Intra-Industry Trade,IIT)理论引入国际旅游服务贸易研究当中,以产业内贸易的视角来观察双向对流的国际旅游服务贸易(即旅游服务IIT)。以东盟为例,探讨了国际旅游服务IIT的发展现象,进而结合旅游学相关理论分析了影响双向对流旅游服务贸易的基本因素。对影响国际旅游服务IIT基本因素的研究可以为提高国际旅游服务IIT的程度,实现贸易多方的"共赢"提供决策依据。     

技术性贸易壁垒是影响我国出口贸易的最大障碍

加入WTO后,我国出口贸易成绩斐然。但是,越来越多的非关税壁垒对出口贸易也造成重大阻碍,其中最大的威胁来自技术性贸易壁垒,这是当前影响外贸发展的最大障碍,必须高度重视。本文总结了十年来出口贸易的成就,分析了技术法规、技术标准与合格评定程序三种技术性贸易壁垒,阐述了技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口产品在国际市场上竞争力的影响所在,指出应通过建立国家级的管理技术性贸易措施的协调机构来应对技术性贸易壁垒。     

Does regionalism lead to more global trade integration in East Asia?

Since early 1999, global trade liberalization has been sidelined as regional trade agreements (RTA) have become the preferred choice in East Asia. Does this shift suggest that global trade and welfare levels will be raised? In contrast to unilateral trade liberalization, RTAs may well cause both ‘trade creation’ and ‘trade diversion,’ so that their net effect on global trade and welfare becomes ambiguous. It is conjectured that RTAs among “natural trading partners” are more likely to be trade-creating, and less likely to divert trade from non-member countries, in which case welfare will improve. We find that if an RTA involves geographically proximate countries (measured either by distance or border), trade significantly increases among them. At the same time, geographical proximity also contributes to increasing trade between members and the rest of the world. We examine how existing or proposed East Asian trading blocs affect intra-bloc and extra-bloc trade and thereby global trade. We find that the East Asian RTAs are likely to create more trade among members without diverting trade from non-members.