房地产价格、经济杠杆与金融系统性风险

经济杠杆在房地产价格与金融稳定的关系中起到不可忽视的作用。基于1997—2017年44个国家和地区的面板数据，合成金融系统性风险综合指标，构建门槛向量自回归模型，检验房地产价格对金融系统性风险的非线性影响。结果表明，房价对金融系统性风险存在门槛效应：低杠杆下，房价上涨有利于金融稳定；中杠杆下，房价上涨促进风险累积；高杠杆下，房价上涨加速金融系统性风险。并且稳健性检验结果一致。当前中国经济杠杆已处于中杠杆向高杠杆转移的区间，个别地区已经跨进高杠杆区域。由此，在当前受疫情影响经济增速下滑的阶段，应该坚守“房住不炒”的原则，不放松对房价和杠杆的调控。     

金融财税政策调控房价面面观

针对房价居高不下的现状,本文主要对提高贷款利率、调高银行存款准备金率、增加首期支付成数、开征物业税等金融财税政策能否真正调控房价进行分析,得出只有金融财税政策需配合严格的土地供应制度、调整开发商的投资结构等措施,才能真正达到平抑房价的目的的结论.     

金融财税政策调控房价面面观

针对房价居高不下的现状,本文主要对提高贷款利率、调高银行存款准备金率、增加首期支付成数、开征物业税等金融财税政策能否真正调控房价进行分析,得出只有金融财税政策需配合严格的土地供应制度、调整开发商的投资结构等措施,才能真正达到平抑房价的目的的结论。     

金融集聚、区域房价如何影响产业结构升级：双轮驱动还是双向抑制？

金融集聚和区域房价对产业结构升级的影响机制可以从地理角度和经济角度运用空间杜宾模型来考察。研究结果显示,金融集聚、区域房价及产业结构升级存在较强的正向空间自相关性,呈现出较强的扩散效应和示范效应。金融集聚通过资源配置效应、规模经济效应、创新激励效应和风险管理效应等路径来影响产业结构升级,区域房价通过成本效应和劳动力供给效应等路径来影响产业结构升级。金融集聚、区域房价对产业结构升级均有显著的正向促进作用;两者互动对产业结构升级有显著抑制作用,但存在明显的地区差异性。科技创新、外商直接投资及教育水平对产业结构升级有积极的促进作用,政府干预程度对产业结构升级有明显的阻碍作用。     

同期声

今年经济增长需两大动力支撑；房价下跌不会引发金融动荡；宏观调控就是负责总量平衡关系的一个政策;降息有利于防止经济过快回落;房价适度下降合情合理期待能“软着陆”.     

新品登场

大城市房价直追美国官学商激辩“地产泡沫”，年末地产金融的对话，     

可以把相片盖出来的相机

“我不认为房价还会大幅度上升，因为现在已经太离谱了，全世界房价最离谱就是中国，所以我认为房地产没有投资价值。”上海交大安泰经管学院金融学教授潘英丽如是说。     

房地产价格快速上涨的经济效应分析

房地产业对我国经济发展起了重要作用。但房地产价格的急剧上涨会对国民经济甚至整个社会造成很大的危害。本文主要通过分析房价快速上涨对各地区、居民、金融以及宏观经济的影响,揭示房价快速上涨的经济效应。     

事件

国务院：将打击哄抬房价等行为;《福布斯》：中国房产已成全球第二大金融泡沫;杭州：首推经济相赁房月租低于15元／平方米;社科院：城乡居民住房进入普及阶段;北京：首度表态遏制房价快速上涨;     

楼市软着陆

如何在市场交易量趺复和房价不危及金融之间找到—个新的平衡．这是摆在决策者面前的艰深难题房地产在快速上升区间时，表现为积累泡沫，在下行区间时又具有对金融乃至于经济的巨大杀伤力．．市场交易量腰斩，意味着房价大规模调整出现的可能性．．而地产市场风吹草动．元气损耗最大的是国家整体经济站在对市场游戏规则重新审视的角度，全国工商联房地产商会提出了旨在完成税制、金融、企业主体市场化方向确立的多重措施。     

政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程，通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下，住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况，可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别，前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者，但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率，那么前者成交价格会不断提高，而后者成交价格会不断降低，成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关，也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于，如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下，应当采用住房供给补贴；如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下，则应当采用住房消费补贴，同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴，都应当增大供给弹性，减小需求弹性。     

关于提高住宅有效购买力的几点思考

随着我国住房制度改革的推进 ,房地产业面临着前所未有的发展机遇。然而 ,几年过去了 ,我们却不得不面对住宅潜在需求和有效需求不足的尖锐矛盾。产生这一现象的原因是多方面的 ,笔者认为最主要的原因在于商品住宅价格偏高、住房金融市场发展缓慢以及住房交易市场不健全三个方面。因此 ,要使住宅产业真正成为消费热点和新的经济增长点 ,就必须努力降低现有商品住宅价格、加快住房金融市场的发展以及完善住房交易市场     

地价与房价的因果关系——基于武汉市的实证研究

研究目的——探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法——实证研究法和计量经济学方法。研究结果——在中短期,地价是一个相对独立的变动过程,不受房价的影响,而房价却受到地价的显著影响;从长期来看,房价对地价的影响开始增强,但总不及地价对房价的影响,地价一直占主导地位。研究结论——在调控房价时,应先稳定地价。房地产价格调控需要从四个方面着手：一是革除地方政府对土地财政的依赖;二是调整土地政策,增加土地供应量;三是加大保障性住房建设力度;四是打击房地产投机。     

Risk shocks and housing supply: A quantitative analysis

This paper analyzes the role of stochastic uncertainty in a multi-sector housing model with financial frictions. We include time varying uncertainty (i.e. risk shocks) in the technology shocks that affect housing production and provide estimates of the time-series properties of risk shocks by using firm level productivity data. The analysis demonstrates that risk shocks to the housing production sector are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for understanding housing price movements. Specifically, the model can match the volatility of housing prices observed in the data. It is also demonstrated that adjustment costs are important in replicating the contemporaneous correlation of housing prices with GDP and residential investment. Critically, bankruptcy costs act as an endogenous markup factor in housing prices and are an important determinant of house price volatility. However, in comparison to housing demand shocks, risk shocks have low explanatory power for real quantities.     

后金融危机时代房地产金融创新与风险防范

由美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机深刻展现了房地产金融创新的现实风险,住房贷款供需两旺的繁荣背后,商品房价的高位运行足以引起我们对房地产市场风险的重视,以加快金融创新,增强防范意识和能力。     

BINGE BORROWERS OR RATIONAL CONSUMERS? THE FSA AND GOVERNMENT FAILURE

The FSA seeks to address the putative financial incompetence of the borrowing public by improving its financial capability. The response of rational agents to asset price inflation in the UK is one indication of the competence with which many people use innovations in the financial services industry. The FSA succeeds only in shielding government failures in the money and housing markets.     

政府调控房价政策下的银行房地产信贷研究

依据国家统计局、中国人民银行发布的房地产市场以及房地产金融方面的统计资料,对近几年政府调控房价政策下我国房地产开发贷款、个人住房贷款余额变化以及在银行业贷款总额的占比等进行了分析,并对金融机构房地产信贷风险进行了评估。     

Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics – Empirical evidence from Helsinki

This article argues that, especially in the absence of sufficient direct data on credit constraints, it is reasonable to add a household debt variable in an empirical model studying housing price dynamics. This is because household borrowing is likely to reveal information regarding the credit constraints faced by households. Moreover, debt may also give information on expected income growth and interest rate movements. The aim of this study is to examine empirically if household borrowing data, indeed, is of importance in a dynamic housing price model. In line with the prior expectations, it is found that housing appreciation in the Helsinki Metropolitan area is Granger caused by the household debt-to-GDP ratio both in the short and in the long run. Causality from the housing market to credit, in turn, seems to run only through a cointegrating long-run relation. While the estimated long-run relation between housing prices, income and debt-to-GDP ratio appears to have remained stable through the sample period (1975Q1-2006Q2), the short-run dynamics changed somewhat due to the financial liberalization in the late 1980s. The stability of the long-run relation implies that the loan data are able to cater, at least to a notable extent, for the effect of the changes in Finnish households’ liquidity constraints on housing demand. In line with previous literature, it is also found that housing price adjustment is sluggish and includes notable backward-looking features.     

房价变动规律性及调控对策研究

房价的变动既是经济问题,更是政治和社会问题的体现.我国房地产业已经成为拉动国民经济发展的重要支柱产业.金融危机爆发后,房价的大幅波动引起了世界各主要国家的高度关注.本丈结合我国房地产业发展的实际,对房价的变动情况、变动规律性及调控对策问题进行了初步探讨.本文提出影响房价变动的十大要素,对各要素与房价这一变量变动的相关性进行了分析研究,以实现前瞻性的指导房地产业健康发展的目的.     

Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit

The financial crisis has brought the interaction between housing prices and household borrowing into the limelight of the economic policy debate. This paper examines the nexus of housing prices and credit in Norway within a structural vector equilibrium correction model (SVECM) over the period 1986q2–2008q4. The results establish a two way interaction in the long-run, so that higher housing prices lead to a credit expansion, which in turn puts an upward pressure on prices. Interest rates influence housing prices indirectly through the credit channel. Furthermore, households’ expectations about the future development of their own income as well as in the Norwegian economy have a significant impact on housing price growth. Dynamic simulations show how shocks are propagated and amplified. When we augment the model to include the supply side of the housing market, these effects are dampened.