中国对外石油投资问题研究

石油作为重要的战略性资源,受到世界许多国家的高度重视.我国是一个石油需求大国且石油供需矛盾日益加剧,而保障我国石油安全供应的重要措施之一是进行对外石油投资,在海外建立石油供应基地.文章我国对外石油投资存在的问题进行了分析并提出了解决的对策.     

我国石油安全战略体系的构建

随着中国经济的快速发展,我国国内石油生产已经远远不能满足经济社会发展的需要,进口石油量逐年增加,对国际石油市场依赖程度日益加深.由于国际油价的不断上涨以及国际局势风云突变,使我国石油进口增添了新的不确定因素.面对石油供应安全出现的新形势,本文以科学发展观为指导,就如何构建石油安全体系提出自己的看法.     

什么样的体制才能保证我国的能源安全

本文在充分肯定当前我国能源战略的基础上,全面估测了我国石油天然气资源潜力,考察了巴西、印度、美国等国家发展石油天然气工业的经验,结论是我国具备掌握石油主动权和成为石油强国的潜力,而体制障碍才是我国油气产量近几年一直徘徊不前的真正原因,并提出了发展我国石油工业的体制构想.     

石油企业招标管理分析

随着我国经济和科技的不断进步,我国的石油企业也得到了飞速的发展.石油企业对于物资的需求量不断的增加,对于设备的要求标准也在不断的提高,因此在石油企业中,招标项目也开展得十分频繁和顺利.所以说,标管理工作在石油企业的整体发展中起到了越来越重要的作用.目前,石油企业的发展对我国来说具有特殊的意义.石油企业对于资源和设备的需求量十分的庞大,处理好石油企业的招标管理工作可以大幅度的提升石油企业的经济利益,也可以从一定程度上缓解或是解决石油企业所遇到的困难,从而保障在招标中石油企业能够获得最大的利润.本文对石油企业的招标管理进行了深入的调查和分析,并提出了在石油企业招标管理中所存在的问题,以及相应的解决对策,从而保障石油企业的招标工作顺利进行.     

我国重启石油期货市场的必要性和可行性分析

随着国际油价的频繁波动和我国石油需求对国际市场的依赖度的提高,在国内建立石油期货市场的紧迫性日益凸现。本文从困扰我国目前的石油安全问题出发,提出了发展石油期货市场对保证我国的石油安全具有的重要战略意义,并结合我国现阶段实际情况对我国发展石油期货的可行性进行了探讨,在文章最后针对我国石油期货市场发展问题提出了若干建议。     

我国当前石油高进口依存度的原因及相应对策

随着经济的发展,我国从原来的石油出口国成为石油净进口国.到2008年我国石油净进口量达2.67亿吨,对进口石油的依存度超过50%.对进口石油的高依存度已成为我国能源现状的不争事实.本文将在研究石油进口现状基础上,分析石油进口高依存度的原因,并提出相应解决办法.     

我国石油储备发展的审视与对策分析

石油是当今世界第一大能源,维护其安全供应已成为各国面临的共同问题。中国经济发展迅速,目前已成为世界石油市场需求量增长最快的国家。同时,中国石油对外的依存度也逐年扩大,石油安全已成为中国面临的重大挑战,根据我国国情建立科学完备的石油储备体系是保障石油安全的重要条件。本文从我国石油资源的现状入手分析了我国建立石油储备的重要性和必要性,并介绍了我国石油储备的发展情况。在总结和借鉴国际上发达国家石油储备经验的基础上,从石油储备立法、石油储备结构完善、石油储备资金筹集等多个角度提出了我国石油储备体系建设的发展建议。同时也指出逐步建立石油期货市场,分散购油风险,石油行业的市场化改革等,都是中国石油储备战略所不能忽视的。     

我国石油供应现状及其安全战略体系构建

石油供应安全是确保国家经济得以正常发展的重要基础。近年来我国国内石油产量不能满足经济发展的需要,石油进口量不断增加,使我国的石油供应安全出现了新的问题。我国应提高石油利用效率,积极发展新能源,加快建设石油战略储备体系,加强海军建设保障海上通道安全以及参与国际能源合作等措施来的构建石油安全的有效屏障。     

我国石油供给、需求现状及战略分析

随着国内石油市场供需矛盾日益突出，石油安全引起了我国高度重视。本文分析了我国石油市扬上的需求、供给增长的现状盟我国日益扩大的石油供需缺口，并结合作用于石油冲击影响程度的经济因素，从需求和供给两方面探讨了我国石油的长期战略。     

石油行业上市公司财务绩效综合评价研究

石油是一种不可再生的优质基础能源,其供应量的大小不仅关系到国家经济社会的发展和人民生活的质量,而且对国防安全也起到了重要的作用.由于石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中起着重要的作用,是国家石油有效供应的微观主体,因此,如何有效地衡量石油行业上市公司整体运营绩效对于准确把握国家石油供应能力有着重要的意义.基于此,石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中所起的作用,本文构建了石油行业上市公司财务评价指标体系,并运用因子分析模型对我国13家石油行业上市公司2010年的财务绩效进行了综合评价,得出了各上市公司财务绩效的综合排序,并从股本扩张能力、偿债能力、盈利能力、资产管理能力和成长能力五个方面探讨了其影响因素,为各石油行业上市公司财务业绩的改进及石油的可特续供应提供了科学的决策依据和方向.     

中国豆油期货市场功能的实证分析

运用协整检验、误差修正模型检验、脉冲响应函数检验和方差分解检验等方法,并通过基差分析、期货合约流动性分析,对中国豆油期货市场的价格发现功能和回避风险功能的发挥情况进行了实证分析。结果显示：在长期过程中,中国豆油期货市场的价格发现功能基本得到发挥;回避风险功能在期货市场自身运行机制的作用下逐渐得到改善,并开始发挥作用。     

中国棕榈油期货价格发现效率变动——基于ECM模型的实证

大商所的棕榈油期货价格发现功能对棕榈油最大进口国的中国来说意义重大。文章回答了＂大商所棕榈油期货是否具有价格发现功能＂这一疑问。选择代表性强的合约为研究对象,采用ECM模型分三个阶段研究了不同时期我国棕榈油期货市场的价格发现效率。结果发现我国棕榈油期货市场正逐步走向成熟,目前已具备价格发现的功能并且价格发现有效率。     

Nonlinearities between oil spot and futures markets： Evidence from intraday data

This paper builds on the literature of the relationship between oil spot and futures prices from the NYNEX market, both in their means and in their conditional volatilities, to investigate whether the association is linear or not. The novelty of this work is based on intraday data from both markets. The empirical findings indicate the presence of nonlinearities both in means and conditional volatilities. Moreover, non-linear causality estimations both in means and in volatilities reveal the presence of bi-directional causality, a fact that provides additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets.     

Testing the efficiency of the futures market for crude oil in the presence of a structural break

The efficiency of the futures market for crude oil has been the subject of significant study, with the basis regression representing a popular methodology. However, the parameters of this model are subject to a structural break, casting doubt on any conclusion regarding the efficiency of the futures market. To address this problem, this article employs a simple generalization which is capable of testing the efficiency of a futures market in the presence of a structural break. Using this approach, strong evidence of inefficiency is found in the one month futures contract for West Texas Intermediate for the period between 1985 and 2013, which is otherwise not detected.     

The heterogeneous dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets: evidence from quantile regression

This paper explores the dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets across different quantiles of the return distributions. Based on weekly data from 11 June 2004 to 7 July 2017, we address this issue by applying a quantile regression method. This technique provides a more detailed investigation of the dependence. Moreover, considering the structural breaks caused by market turmoil or financial crises, we divide the full period of every commodity sector market into sub-periods based on these break dates to further explore the dependence changes. The empirical results indicate that the dependence between global crude oil and Chinese commodity futures markets is different across quantiles in different commodity sectors. The dependence is significantly positive, except in markets with high expected returns. Additionally, the effects caused by structural breaks are distinctly heterogeneous across quantiles. The effect of the same break on the degree of dependence exhibits an increasing tendency as the quantile level increases, which suggests that markets with high expected returns are more susceptible to crises. Finally, we apply a prediction analysis to further verify the heterogeneity of the commodity sectors, which may be the cause of the heterogeneous dependence.     

Forecasting realized volatility of crude oil futures with equity market uncertainty

This paper examines whether the equity market uncertainty (EMU) index contains incremental information for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. We use 5-min high-frequency transaction data for WTI crude oil futures and develop six heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models based on classical HAR-type models. The empirical results suggest that EMU contains more incremental information than the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) for forecasting the realized volatility of crude oil futures. More importantly, we argue that EMU is a non negligible additional predictive variable that can significantly improve the 1-day ahead predictive accuracy of all six HAR-type models, and improve the 1-week ahead forecasting performance of the HAR-RV, HAR-RV-J, HAR-RSV, HAR-RV-SJ models. These findings highlight a strong short-term and a weak mid-term predictive ability of EMU in the crude oil futures market.     

纽约黄金期货价格波动对我国期货市场收益率的影响研究

随着我国期货市场的迅速发展,商品期货逐步显示出金融属性。本文运用自回归分布滞后模型结合GARCH族模型对纽约黄金期货价格波动与我国上海期货交易所沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、天然橡胶、燃料油期货价格波动之间的动态关系展开研究,以考察宏观经济运行对我国期货市场的影响。     

国内外铜期货市场的价格联系

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the time varying relationships between the Chinese copper futures market and its London counterparts. Rolling correlation and rolling Granger causality test show that with the development of the Shanghai copper futures markets, it has stronger connections with its London counterpart and it plays more and more important role in the price discovery process. There is a long run relationship between the Shanghai futures exchanges (SHFE) and London Metals exchanges (LME) copper futures prices. The influence of LME on SHFE is greater than that of SHFE on LME. The research will shed light on the openness of the Chinese copper commodity markets and on the nature of cross-market information transmission.      

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

中国期货市场有效性研究

本文介绍了期货市场有效性理论，利用Johansen市场拟合检测方法分析国内两个主要农产品期货品种——大豆和小麦的期货价格和现货价格表现，结果显示大豆的期货价格和现货价格较长时间是一致的，大豆期货市场是有效的．但大豆期货市场仅仅短期有效，小麦期货市场则是无效的。