Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments

The development and analysis of scenarios or plausible futures has evolved to be a useful approach for dealing with uncertainty about future developments in a structured and integrated manner. Commonly, scenario exercises have focussed on processes at one specific geographic scale. Recently scenario-based approaches have also been used to address multi-scale processes or to link scenarios developed at various geographical scales with each other in order to better understand the interaction of processes across scales.The level of interconnectedness across scales will vary, and depends largely on the approaches used to develop multi-scale scenarios. We distinguish five levels of interconnectedness scenarios may display across scales: (a) Equivalent, (b) Consistent, (c) Coherent, (d) Comparable, and (e) Complementary. Furthermore, we describe five different types of coupled scenario development processes: (a) Joint, (b) Parallel, (c) Iterative, (d) Consecutive, and (e) Independent.Based on this nomenclature, the relationship between the level of interconnectedness of scenarios and the degree of coupling of scenario development processes across geographical scales is discussed. Which process is best suited and how much interconnectedness is needed, will depend both on the focal issue and the primary purpose of the scenario exercise, i.e. whether the aim is education, scientific exploration, or decision-support.     

Structuring the future—application of a scenario-generation procedure

Scenario generation is a fundamental technique of futures research. By providing a series of possible future contexts, it is a valuable tool for decision makers. A number of scenario generation procedures have been proposed and may all be appropriate in particular circumstances. These procedures differ in regard to their approach to structure, the nature of the scenario elements used, their handling of the time dimension, their approach to scenario probabilities, the scope or size of the scenarios, and a few other aspects. A number of suggested techniques are classified in regard to these characteristics and a case is described for a procedure that provides for large numbers of events and trends (over 100) in a multiperiod framework and that can produce a fairly small number of the most likely scenarios that contain a reasonable variety. An approach to this problem is described, and an application in the Western Australian Government Railway organization, Westrail, is presented.     

Selecting a variety of futures for scenario development

Systematic development of future scenarios involves identifying key factors and their different possible values, then selecting combinations of factor values on which to build scenarios. This article recapitulates basic methods of reducing the number of possible combinations of factor values by removing futures containing incompatible factor value pairs, then uses probability and cross-impact measures to further eliminate improbable futures. Working with the remaining plausible futures, the aim is to select a small number of them for scenario development in such a way that there is a balance between the factor values explored. The motivation is to explore possible futures while avoiding unintentional bias by over-representing some factor values and neglecting others. The tool used is a mathematical formulation that is easily solved as an integer linear program. The process is illustrated with a small example.     

Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning

In this paper, we examine the impact of information and communications technologies (ICT) on government departments/agencies and the contribution of external agents to change and development programs. We present empirical evidence of externally facilitated change to mindsets and patterns of behavior within local government through use of a scenario planning-based approach. Our aim was to facilitate the organizational actors' conduct of investigation of the ‘limits of the possible’ for a range of plausible futures and determination of strategic responses to these. Participants used their own current knowledge and understanding as a basis for development, with the introduction of external ‘expertise’ to challenge their thinking and to expand their understanding. Following this, we facilitated the participants' elucidation of key uncertainties on the future, exploration of the relationships between them and possible outcomes. The participants then constructed scenarios that outlined four possible and plausible futures. These held explicit meaning for the participants, enabled them to identify implications of each possible future in relation to structure and service requirements and informed analysis of current structure, service, etc. We compare and contrast the process and outcomes of our scenario-planning intervention (based on intuitive logics) with both those of other futures methodologies (decision analysis, Delphi and environmental scanning) and with other scenario methodologies (trend-impact analysis and cross-impact analysis). We argue that the external facilitation of internal generation of knowledge, understanding and meaning, and of exploration of the limits of the possible for the future, is a valuable tool for comprehending strategic choices. We conclude that our scenario approach, utilizing intuitive logics, enables organizational actors to make sense of the complexities and ambiguities that they face and so facilitates strategic change.     

Scenario Management: An Approach to Develop Future Potentials

In order to deal with growing uncertainties and to preserve their competitiveness, enterprises should identify future success potentials very early and develop them on time. Scenario management is a very powerful method to manage this complex planning situation and is based on scenarios that are adjusted precisely to their enterprise. Therefore it is based on the main principles of systems thinking and multiple futures. The five phases of a scenario project are explained with the aid of a concrete example. It is also shown how scenario management is used to develop corporate or business strategies. Furthermore, it is used to develop similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies.     

Willingness to Pay and Sensitivity to Time Framing: A Theoretical Analysis and an Application on Car Safety

Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflect individuals’ “true” preferences. Numerous empirical studies suggest that monetary values from SP studies are sensitive to survey design and so may not reflect respondents’ true preferences. This study examines the effect of time framing on respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for car safety. We explore how WTP per unit risk reduction depends on the time period over which respondents pay and face reduced risk in a theoretical model and by using data from a Swedish contingent valuation survey. Our theoretical model predicts the effect to be nontrivial in many scenarios used in empirical applications. In our empirical analysis we examine the sensitivity of WTP to an annual and a monthly scenario. Our theoretical model predicts the effect from the time framing to be negligible, but the empirical estimates from the annual scenario are about 70 % higher than estimates from the monthly scenario.     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Cost credibility and the stated preference analysis of public goods

Two recent stated preference studies include questions that explore participants’ beliefs regarding the cost amount stated in the valuation question in relation to the cost to them if the project were implemented. Results from these studies suggest that a significant proportion of people do not believe these stated cost amounts. This paper explores the implications of participants answering valuation questions that are not consistent with their beliefs regarding stated costs. As an example, the paper develops a response model for dichotomous choice stated preference questions. Participants gather project information through the stated preference experiment, form a prior distribution of costs, update the distribution of costs based on a survey's stated cost and then respond to the dichotomous choice stated preference question. The model suggests that participants will not generally respond truthfully in the sense that they may say no to a stated cost that is less than their willingness to pay for a project or yes to a stated cost that is more than their willingness to pay. While the model findings suggest potentially serious problems with stated preference estimation, the observed patterns of disbelief from the empirical studies result in downwardly biased estimates of mean willingness to pay.     

Disaggregative policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation

A critical phase of scenario making is the choosing of scenarios. In the worst case, a futures researcher creates scenarios according to his/her subjective views and cannot see the real quality of the study material. Oversimplification is a typical example of this kind of bias. In this study, an attempt towards a more data sensitive method was made using Finnish transport policy as an example. A disaggregative Delphi method as opposed to traditional consensual Delphi was applied. The article summarises eight Delphi pitfalls and gives an example how to avoid them. A two-rounded disaggregative Delphi was conducted, the panelists being representatives of interest groups in the traffic sector. Panelists were shown the past development of three correlating key variables in Finland in 1970-1996: GDP, road traffic volume and the carbon dioxide emissions from road traffic. The panelists were invited to give estimates of their organisation to the probable and the preferable futures of the key variables for 1997-2025. They were also asked to give qualitative and quantitative arguments of why and the policy instruments of how their image of the future would occur. The first round data were collected by a fairly open questionnaire and the second round data by a fairly structured interview. The responses of the quantitative three key variables were grouped in a disaggregative way by cluster analysis. The clusters were complemented with respective qualitative arguments in order to form wider scenarios. This offers a relevance to decision-making not afforded by a nonsystematic approach. Of course, there are some problems of cluster analysis used in this way: The interviews revealed that quantitatively similar future images produced by the panelists occasionally had different kind of qualitative background theory. Also, cluster analysis cannot ultimately decide the number of scenarios, being a choice of the researcher. Cluster analysis makes the choice well argued, however.     

Scenario Planning

Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point—they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts, it is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose.     

The future shocks: On discontinuity and scenario development

Allegedly, an important function of scenario development is the exploration of potential discontinuity. However, there are indications that the approach does not deliver on its promises. This article investigates how discontinuity is addressed in futures literature, particularly those sources that focus on scenarios, and how the concept is used in scenario practice. A literature review reveals a multitude of terms, including wild cards and surprises, from which characteristics of discontinuity in the context of foresight can be derived. Insights from the review help investigate how discontinuity is addressed in contemporary scenario development. The investigation described in this article exposes a rather ambiguous approach to discontinuity in current scenario practice. The article closes with questions regarding scenario method where the investigation of potential discontinuity is concerned.     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

A Brief Methodological Guide to Scenario Building

This brief guide reviews the philosophical underpinnings of the prospective procedure then strives to explain the concepts and characteristics of this “intellectual undiscipline” which aims not to predict but rather to help shape the future. La prospective contributes to our efforts to gain foresight, an indispensable quality for anyone who wants to be an actor in a future yet to be created. The various stages of the procedure are presented, in particular the scenario method as applied by the author in local, national, and international futures projects for subjects as varied as aging populations, retirement in industrialized countries, and the impact of new technology on production.     

情境式教学在经济法课程中的应用

现行的经济法教学注重基本理论的传授,忽视应用能力的训练,存在明显的不足。问题驱动情境法、模拟仿真情境法、合作实践情境法等情境式教学法的引入可以弥补目前教学的缺陷,为学生自主学习开辟了一种现实途径。具体实施情境式教学法的过程中应注意把握围绕教学目的合理适度应用情境式教学;教师需提升自身综合素质提高课堂组织能力;完善评价体系等要点。     

How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?

Scenarios are claimed to support strategic decision makers. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. This paper addresses some drawbacks of the conventional scenario method, which is especially directed at handling these uncertainties, and indicates possible avenues for methodological adaptations. We take the approach, which rests in the Shell tradition, as exemplary for our discussion on the mainstream scenario methodology. This approach has some limitations when it comes to dealing with simultaneous trends and countertrends, and trends or clusters of trends that are not thought of beforehand, especially the methodological requirements of causality and consistency, which might be limiting factors in this respect. This paper indicates alternative ways for scenario construction. It discusses the use of either recombinant scenarios, context scenarios, or inconsistent scenarios and/or combinations of these scenarios. These options explicitly incorporate the notion of ‘paradoxical trend’ as the codriver of future developments into the methodology.     

Why Give up Money for the Baltic Sea? – Motives for People's Willingness (or Reluctance) to Pay

A contingent valuation survey about a reduction of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea provided data about respondents' motives for their answers to the willingness to pay question. A categorization of the motives allowed an identification of protesters against the valuation scenario. The categorization also illustrated that a teleological ethical perspective is not shared by all respondents and that some respondents perceive human indirect use of ecosystems.     

Using scenarios for roadmapping: The case of clean production

Roadmapping and scenarios are two widely used futures techniques which help R&D managers set priorities for research. These techniques are combined in a Foresight exercise assessing development of clean production in metal manufacturing, drawing on the European CLEANPROD project. The aim of the project is to develop a set of roadmaps for metal processing R&D to achieve breakthrough sustainability — “clean production”.Scenarios, a frequently used Foresight method, are used to set the context for the exercise, inform the design of technology roadmaps and influence the wider policy context. Roadmaps are developed for three process areas of metal manufacture - surface preparation, machining and coating - on four levels including long run visions up to 2020, interim targets up to 2015, key R&D areas and specific project topics. Roadmaps are appraised in the light of alternative scenarios on the future of manufacturing. Promoting sustainability highlights gaps in a “business as usual” roadmap, suggesting a different portfolio of research projects. A revised overall scenario is used to shape public policy.R&D teams usually adopt one particular methodology to support resource allocation. However joint use of futures techniques helps if there is uncertainty over competing alternative technologies. Roadmapping often focuses on a single future. Scenario building as a Foresight technique introduces “multiple futures” thinking.     

Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

情景规划应对不确定性的思路研究

在对现有文献与案例进行分析的基础上,对情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路进行了研究。研究表明,采用动态渐进的思维和分阶段决策是情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路,围绕这两点,用确定的情景代替不确定的未来、密切关注早期信号的变化等对应对不确定性大有裨益。