Die Kurve des Geldnutzens und die Theorie des Sparens

Ohne ZusammenfassungÜbersetzt von Hans Fried, Wien     

Das Sparen in der Individualwirtschaft

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Exchange rate and interest rate polarization

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Polarization. - The relationship between the polarization phenomenon in foreign exhange markets and a similar regu-larity in interest rate differentials is considered. In the case of perfect substitutability and of perfect foresight, both polarizations would be perfectly complementary. Risk premia and forecast errors, however, might induce some degree of substitutability between the two concepts. Throughout almost the entire EMS experience, in France and Italy both phenomena appear to be equivalent. At the end of the 80s, however, interest rate polarization has surged at the expense of exchange rate polarization. In fact, a bias in estimates was found to explain this recent behaviour.     

Italian Business Ills and Cures

The world’s press may have lost interest in the ongoing enquiry into the deep-rooted corruption in Italian business. But what exactly was going on, and what can be done to improve matters? The writers of this authoritative study are Faculty members of the prestigious Italian Business School, SDA Bocconi, Via F. Bocconi 8, 8-20136 Milano, where Umberto Lago lectures in Strategy and Roberto Castoldi in Accounting. They both lecture on the Business Policy course at Bocconi University.     

Pricing and Hedging Credit Derivatives with Copulas

In this paper, we apply a copula function pricing technique to the evaluation of credit derivatives, namely a vulnerable default put option and a credit switch. Also in this case, copulas enable one to separate the specification of marginal default probabilities from their dependence structure. Their use is based here on no–arbitrage arguments, which provide pricing bounds and easy–to–implement super–replication strategies.
At a second stage, we specify the copula function to be a mixture one. In this case, we obtain closed form prices and hedges, which we calibrate on real market data. For the sake of comparison, we add a Clayton calibration.
(J.E.L: G11, G12).     

THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE OF RUNNING MAXIMA AND MINIMA: RESULTS AND OPTION PRICING APPLICATIONS

We provide general results for the dependence structure of running maxima (minima) of sets of variables in a model based on (i) Markov dynamics; (ii) no Granger causality; (iii) cross-section dependence. At the time series level, we derive recursive formulas for running minima and maxima. These formulas enable to use a "bootstrapping" technique to recursively recover the pricing kernels of barrier options from those of the corresponding European options. We also show that the dependence formulas for running maxima (minima) are completely defined from the copula function representing dependence among levels at the terminal date. The result is applied to multivariate discrete barrier digital products. Barrier Altiplanos are simply priced by (i) bootstrapping the price of univariate barrier products; (ii) evaluating a European Altiplano with these values.     

Stability and bifurcations in <Emphasis Type="Italic">IS-LM</Emphasis> economic models

In this note, we analyze the local dynamics of a general non-linear fixedprice disequilibrium IS-LM model. We assume investment behavior as a general nonlinear function avoiding any Kaldor type assumption. By proving the existence of a family of periodic solutions bifurcating from a steady state, we confirm and extend some results in the literature for IS-LM models reducible to Leinard’s equation. We use bifurcation theory and study the effect of a change of the adjustment parameter in the money market upon the solutions of the model as the steady state loses stability. We establish analytically that the values of the adjustment parameter in the money market may affect the equilibrium relative to the product market and the government budget constraint. (JEL: C62, E32)     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Die Methode der nationalökonomischen Wissenschaft

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Dr. Martha Stephanie Braun, Wien.     

Project analysis using a linear approach (P.A.U.L.A.)

We define a general model (called PAULA) for the valuation, optimal management and selection among mutually exclusive safe projects. By exploiting the formal and financial features of the associated linear problems (primal and dual), we put forward two proposals to define an optimal internal financial law (IFL). They may be used to reduce the multiplicity of the IFLs and to avoid economically arbitrary outcomes.Research projectsCariplo andMurst.