Sources of output change in China: 1987-1997: application of a structural decomposition analysis

Since the beginning of the economic reforms implemented in the industrial sectors of China, the economy has grown and changed rapidly. The high GDP growth rates recorded since 1985 have stimulated unprecedented changes in the economic structure of this developing economy. The major causes of the changes are: the increase in consumption and investment, production technological change and trade. The objective was to analyse this type of structural change, and to explore the sources of economic growth during the period 1987–1997, by using the method of structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The chosen SDA method, based on the comparison between two input-output tables, allowed us to decompose each sector's and industry's output growth; it enabled the relative impact of final demand and technological change of each industry on overall growthto be measured.     

How corporate cultures coevolve with the business environment: The case of firm growth crises and industry evolution

This paper shows how cognitive human dispositions that take effect at the level of an individual firm's corporate culture have repercussions on an industry's evolution. In our theory, the latter is attributable to evolving corporate cultures coupled with changes in a firm's business environment. With the help of a formal model of evolving corporate cultures, we demonstrate how firms can establish a cooperative cultural regime that yields competitive advantages in an innovative, fast changing environment. Depending on within-firm social learning processes and cognitive constraints of human agents, organizations then reach a critical cognitive firm size in their development beyond which the level of cooperation deteriorates rapidly—they systematically face a growth crisis. Organizations successful in such an environment and reaching a critical technological size may, however, reap economies of scale in a later, mature and stable business environment with altered corporate culture. Furthermore, we relate these findings to empirical evidence on firm survival and performance in different industries, the evolution of organizational structures, and technological advancements in production technologies, and we identify some determinants of market structures.     

Choosing Between Internal and Non-internal R&D Activities: Some Technological and Economic Factors

This paper evaluates some of the technological and economic factors that underlie the choice between in-house R&D, R&D alliances and outsourcing. We recount the reasons for the growth in non-internal activities, and explain why these are not as prevalent for R&D as other value-adding activities, and highlight that outsourcing is most often undertaken where multiple, substitutable sources are available. We then develop two frameworks. First, a static framework is developed, which evaluates the choice of mode based on a firm's distribution of competencies, and their strategic importance. Second, a dynamic framework is developed that demonstrates how the static framework differs depending on whether the firm is engaged in pre-paradigmatic, paradigmatic or post-paradigmatic sectors. We also consider the effect of new technologies being introduced to a firm's portfolio of competencies     

When technological discontinuities and disruptive business models challenge dominant industry logics: Insights from the drugs industry

An industry's dominant logic is the general scheme of value creation and capture shared by its actors. In high technology fields, technological discontinuities are not enough to disrupt an industry's dominant logic. Identifying the factors that might trigger change in that logic can help companies develop strategies to enable them to capture greater value from their innovations by disrupting that logic. Based on analyzing the changes that biotechnologies and bioinformatics have brought to the drug industry, we identify and characterize three triggers of change that can create disruptive business models. We suggest that, in mature industries experiencing strong discontinuities and high technological uncertainty, entrants' business models initially tend to fit into the industry's established dominant logic and its value chains remain unchanged. But as new technologies evolve and uncertainty decreases, disruptive business models emerge, challenging dominant industry logics and reshaping established value chains.     

Unemployment and welfare consequences of international outsourcing under monopolistic competition

This paper challenges the conventional academic view that international outsourcing is just another form of gainful trade. Contrary to that view, we show that labour‐service outsourcing can reduce the high‐wage country's welfare even when product‐market trade is beneficial, within a model that combines involuntary unemployment and monopolistic competition. Outsourcing's impact on welfare is worsened by a definite loss of jobs and a possible contraction in the range of varieties produced worldwide. While owners of capital benefit from outsourcing under certain conditions, labour's welfare always falls.     

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Forecasting demand during the early stages of a product's life cycle is a difficult but essential task for the purposes of marketing and policymaking. This paper introduces a procedure to derive accurate forecasts for newly introduced products for which limited data are available. We begin with the assumption that the consumer reservation price is related to the timing with which the consumer adopts the product. The model is estimated using reservation price data derived through a consumer survey, and the forecast is updated with sales data as they become available using Bayes's rule. The proposed model's forecasting performance is compared with that of benchmark models (i.e., Bass model, logistic growth model, and a Bayesian model based on analogy) using 23 quarters' worth of data on South Korea's broadband Internet services market. The proposed model outperforms all benchmark models in both prelaunch and postlaunch forecasting tests, supporting the thesis that consumer reservation price can be used to forecast demand for a new product before or shortly after product launch.     

Outsourcing of peripheral services: Evidence from Spanish manufacturing plant-level data

In this paper we empirically explore outsourcing decisions of peripheral services using information from a data set of 926 Spanish manufacturing plants. We find that increases in outsourcing of peripheral services are positively correlated with increases in the plant׳s market share as well as increases in product market competition and product prices. These findings are robust to controlling for whether plants belong to single-plant or multi-plant firms. These patterns are consistent with a strategic shift in the allocation of attention to core manufacturing activities, and are at odds with traditional TCE and PRT theories of vertical integration.     

国际合资企业IJVs的研发环境与产品创新：技术创新成果保护的调节作用

目前成立在华国际合资企业是我国引进外商投资的重要途径之一。本文通过实证研究探究在华国际合资企业研发环境与其产品创新绩效之间的关系。研究结果显示,在华IJVs所处的研发环境中,政府支持、市场环境、知识环境以及市场对创新的需求都对产品创新绩效具有直接影响,基础设施与社会环境这一因素对在华IJVs产品创新的影响并不显著。研究还发现,在华国际合资企业采取技术创新成果的竞争性保护措施和法律保护措施均会对在华IJVs研发环境和产品创新之间的关系产生调节作用。     

Does technological innovation undertaken alone have a real pivotal role? Product and marketing innovation in manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the role of non-technological innovation on firms' innovation propensity and performance. We note that emphasis on technological innovation alone is misleading, as a firm's decision to undertake technological innovation brings about a more complex and general process which may involve new attitudes regarding organization and market orientation. We analyse the relationship between product and marketing innovation in manufacturing, focusing specifically on the food industry. We propose a bivariate probit model in which product and marketing innovation are estimated taking into account their reciprocal interactions. This enables us to provide more efficient and realistic estimates of a firm's probability of introducing either a new or improved product or a new marketing technique. In addition, the proposed model provides the determinants of such probabilities.     

The effect of external partner heterogeneity on open innovation: the moderating role of the technological regime

There is widespread agreement that open innovation (OI) is strongly influenced by external partner heterogeneity. While previous studies have examined partner heterogeneity using quantitative analysis, the implications of a weighted assignment using an external partner heterogeneity index have received less attention. The purpose of this study is to develop a modified partner heterogeneity model. Specifically, using a questionnaire survey of Chinese firms, we develop a new method to measure partner organisational heterogeneity (POH). Then, the moderating factors of an industry's technological environment, termed the technological regime, are introduced. The empirical analysis shows that the technological regime is positively correlated with POH and OI performance. Hence, an advanced technological regime improves POH and OI performance by incorporating external resources and increasing innovation potential.     

Is Embodied Technology the Result of Upstream R&D? Industry-Level Evidence

This paper provides an exploratory analysis of whether data on the research and development (R&D) spending directed at particular technological/product fields can be used to measure industry-level capital-embodied technological change. Evidence from the patent literature suggests that the R&D directed at a product, as the main input into the “innovation” production function, is proportional to the value of the innovations in that product. I confirm this hypothesis by showing that the decline in the relative price of a good is positively correlated with the R&D directed at that product. The hypothesis implies that the technological change, or innovation, embodied in an industry's capital is proportional to the R&D that is done (“upstream”) by the economy as a whole on each of the capital goods that a (“downstream”) industry purchases. Using R&D data from the National Science Foundation, I construct measures of capital-embodied R&D. I find they have a strong effect on conventionally measured total-factor productivity growth, a phenomenon that seems to be due partly to the mismeasurement of quality change in the capital stock and partly to a positive correlation between embodied and disembodied technological change. Finally, I find the cross-industry variation in empirical estimates of embodied technological change accord with the cross-industry variation in embodied R&D. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: O3.     

Outsourcing and productivity growth in services

Outsourcing from manufacturing firms has fueled some of the service sector's rapid growth. We model the firm's decision to outsource and show that increases in outsourcing may explain part of the increase in the divergence in productivity growth between manufacturing and services. We also analyze the implications of outsourcing for output and productivity growth of service industries. Our findings indicate that it has reduced service sector productivity in the short run. In contrast to earlier work on services (Baumol, W.J., 1967. American Economic Review 57, 415–426. Baumol, W.J., Blackman, A.B., Wolff, E.N., 1985. American Economic Review 75, 806–817), we project that productivity growth in services is likely to increase, once demand growth from manufacturing due to outsourcing subsides.     

The performance of UK textiles and clothing: recent controversies and evidence

This article focuses on the recent performance of textiles and clothing in the UK. The central argument is that the poor international competitiveness of these industries and the long term decline of textiles in particular has not been substantially reversed in the 1980s. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the industry's uneven development in the 1980s does not conform to the analysis put forward by flexible specialization writers. The role of the state in the industry's decline is emphasized and related to alternative explanations of the industry's predicament.     

后发企业技术创新的演化动力机制研究-以华为早期(1988-1995年)研发为例

以演化经济学和系统动力学视角,综合运用文献分析和访谈等研究方法,对华为早期技术研发进行系统性分析,建立后发企业技术创新及其演化的系统动力模型。研究发现：新产品开发是资本增长的动力,技术创新是产品开发的动力,人才和研发组织是技术创新的动力,同时人才也是组织结构优化的动力,而发挥人才价值的关键是人才激励;市场既为后发企业提供不断进化的市场动力,也传递先发企业和后发企业的竞争压力,促使后发企业不断产品开发和集成创新,供应商为后发企业快速进入市场并对关键技术进行模块化创新提供动力;企业家和研发组织把外部动力和压力转化为内部动力,使内部动力及进化选择机制与外部市场竞争协调一致。     

市场需求要素驱动的创新溢出效应研究

市场需求是技术创新的内在源泉，现有研究并未将产品市场和技术市场统一纳入创新能力提升分析框架，不能全面反映市场需求对创新活动的影响效果。在理论模型推演出市场需求与创新水平存在关联性基础上，基于创新数量和创新质量双维视角，采用2004-2016年中国内地30省份面板数据，分别检验市场需求要素对研发投入和创新效率的影响。结果发现：国内市场需求既显著激励了研发投入强度，又明显提高了创新效率水平，培育国内市场需求对创新活动同时具备数量和质量的双重激励；出口贸易对研发投入的影响不明显，但显著有利于创新效率提升；进口贸易与技术交易市场对创新活动存在数量和质量双重压力，是阻碍市场创新效力发挥的主要因素，降低二者〖JP〗的负面约束值得重视；现阶段我国创新活动仍表现为显著的“资本驱动型”特征，R&D人力资本投入数量很高，但贡献相对有限。上述实证研究结论可为高质量发展背景下，通过启动市场需求进而提升自主创新能力和制定产业结构升级政策提供参考。     

外包与技术转移:基于发展中国家异质性模仿的分析

本文构建了一个模型来研究外包以及依附于外包活动中的技术转移,对发展中国家经济发展的多重影响效应.我们的研究表明,在发展中国家为低模仿类型时,外包活动中发达国家对发展中国家的技术转移,有利于发达国家与发展中国家双方的福利增进;在发展中国家为高模仿类型时,技术转移有利于发达国家,而不利于发展中国家可持续发展能力的培育.我们的研究支持这样一种观点:外包条件下发达国家对发展中国家的技术转移,并不必然会带来发展中国家的经济可持续增长,一个不可忽略的必要条件是,发展中国家自身制度条件制约了外包与技术转移对发展中国家可持续发展能力的作用.     

Appropriation Of Returns From Technological Assets And The Values Of Patents And R&D In Japanese High-Tech Firms †

This paper investigates the extent that technological assets contribute to the value of the firm, using the sample of 90 Japanese firms in pharmaceutical, chemical, and electrical equipment industries. We use the firm's R&D expenditures and the number of patents (in stock) as the measures of its technological assets and show that the relative usefulness of these two measures varies across industries. Particularly, Tobin's q is positively related to the technological assets most strongly in the pharmaceutical industry. It is also most sensitive in this industry to the level of patent stock, coinciding with the view that drug patents are more effective than other patents as a means of appropriating returns from innovation. The communications equipment industry is also characterized by its q's dependence on patent stock. In addition, this industry's q is particularly sensitive to the level of net R&D investment in the most recent year, presumably because of the rapid technological progress in this industry.     

Outsourcing: Volume and Composition of R&D

This paper examines the impact of the outsourcing of production on the volume and composition of the home country's research and development (R&D). We find that outsourcing decreases the process R&D of the multinational firm in large markets when it only conducts process R&D (the substitution effect between outsourcing and process R&D). Outsourcing tends to emerge as a complementary factor to product development when the multinational firm conducts both product R&D and process R&D (the complementary effect between outsourcing and product R&D) under some conditions. This implies that international outsourcing has a different effect on product innovation and process innovation.     

外包与工资差距:基于工业行业数据的实证研究

笔者以Feenstra等人的三要素模型为基础,分析了国际外包影响发达国家及发展中国家熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的理论机制,运用我国工业行业面板数据,实证检验了外包对我国工业行业总体及分部门工资差距的影响。结果表明:外包和技术进步对我国工业行业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间工资差距的扩大均存在明显的正效应,但外包对劳动力资源密集型部门和中等技术部门的影响效应相对更强。     

Firm size distribution and employment fluctuations: Theory and evidence

We show that the firm-size distribution is an important determinant of the relationship between an industry's employment and output. A theoretical model predicts that changes in demand for an industry's output have larger effects on employment, resulting from adjustments at both the intensive and extensive margin, in industries characterised by a distribution that has a lower density of large firms. Industry-specific shape parameters of the firm size distributions are estimated using firm-level data from Germany, Sweden and the UK, and used to augment a relationship between industry-level employment and output. The empirical results align with the predictions of the theory.