Short Reviews

PHILIP ARESTIS (ed.), Post-Keynesian Monetary Economics: New Approaches to Financial Modelling , Aldershot, Edward Elgar
M. W. JONES-LEE, The Economics of Safety and Physical Risk , Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1989
JOHN EATWELL, MURRAY MILGATE AND PETER NEWMAN (eds), The New Palgrave: General Equilibrium , London, Macmillan, 1989
JOHN EATWELL, MURRAY MILGATE AND PETER NEWMAN (eds), The New Palgrave: Money , London, Macmillan, 1989
DANIEL F. SPULBER, Regulation and Markets , Cambridge, Mass., MIT Press,
ROBERT G. CHAMBERS, Applied Production Analysis: a Dual Approach , Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1988
STEPHEN PUDNEY, Modelling Individual Choice: the Econometrics of Corners, Kinks and Holes , Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1989
A. P. THIRLWALL, Growth and Development: with Special Reference to Developing Economies fourth edition, London, Macmillan, 1989
JACK HIRSHLEIFER, Time, Uncertainty and Information , Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1989     

A mnemonic for the major factors influencing the likelihood of collusion

In the typical industrial organization textbook and class, and in the courtroom, numerous factors are identified as providing a predisposition to a cartel. These factors include cost differences, product differentiation, number of firms, technology, growth of the industry, elasticity, frequency of sales, number and size distribution of sellers and buyers, discount rate, type of competition, vertical integration, cost ratio, imports, sealed bidding, social structure and track record, future expectations, recognition of interdependence, announcements and exchanges of economic information, multimarkets, etc. There are many factors to keep in mind. Fortunately, the accumulated theoretical and empirical work on collusion suggests that we can, for all practical purposes, focus on the factors contained in the mnemonic word CARTEL. The key factors are: Concentration, Additional, Revenue, Talk, Entry, Likeness.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Bonin, John P.; Székely, István P., eds, The development and reform of financial systems in Central and Eastern Europe
Yegor Gaidar and Karl Otto Pöhl, Russian Reform/International Money
Gutmann, Gemot & Wagner, Ulrich, Ö konomische Erfolge und Misserfolge der deutschen Vereinigung - Eine Zwischenbilanz
Neuhold, H., Havlik, P. & Suppan, A., eds. Political and Economic Transformation in East Central Europe
Chernyshev, Igor, Labour Statistics for a Market Economy
Landesmann, Michael A. and Székely, István P., eds, Industrial Restructuring and Trade Reorientation in Eastern Europe
Lim, Lin Lean and Sziráczki, György, Employment Challenges and Policy Responses: Chinese and International Perspectives
Warner, Malcolm, The Management of Human Resources in Chinese Industry
Poznanski, Kazimierz Z., ed., The Evolutionary Transition to Capitalism
Lorentzen, Jochen, Opening up Hungary to the World Market, External Constraints and Opportunities
Lavigne, Marie, The Economics of Transition. From Socialist Economy to Market Economy
Kornai, János, Highways and Byways: Studies on Reform and Postcommunist Transition
Zwas, Adam, From Failed Communism to Underdeveloped Capitalism. Transformation of Eastern Europe, the Post-Soviet Union and China .
Jackson, Marvin & Biesbrouck, Wouter, eds, Marketization, restructuring and competition in transition industries of Central and Eastern Europe
Gros, Daniel and Steinherr, Alfred, Winds of change. Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe
Estrin, Saul, Brada, Josef C, Gelb, Alan and Singh, Inderjit, eds, Restructuring and Privatization in Central Eastern Europe. Case Studies of Firms in Transition     

英国脱欧事件对主要货币汇率的影响分析*———基于事件分析法

2016年6月24日,英国脱欧公投公布结果,时任英国首相卡梅伦宣告脱欧阵营获胜。消息一出不仅英镑汇率大跌,大多数非美元货币汇率也明显走低。外汇市场是流动性最强、交易量最大的金融市场,对重大事件高度敏感。本文系统梳理英国脱欧始末和开启脱欧进程后的关键事件,运用事件分析法构建分析主要货币汇率变化趋势的模型,以英镑、欧元、日元、人民币汇率数据为研究对象,深入探究政治事件影响汇率的渠道和程度。研究结果表明,英镑与欧元始终受到英国脱欧事件的显著影响,与无协议脱欧风险正相关,即在无协议脱欧风险上升时币值走低,无协议脱欧风险消除时币值走高。相比于欧元,英镑受到的影响更强烈。日元和人民币的汇率仅在英国脱欧公投事件中受到显著影响,较少受后续脱欧进程的影响。本文的研究有利 于动态了解和把握主要货币汇率波动的内在规律和差异性,以便我国更好地应对黑天鹅事件冲击,做好人民币汇率预期管理。     

放松训练对术前患者心身状况的影响

目的探讨放松训练对术前患者心身状况的影响。方法将400例我科择期手术患者随机分为观察组和对照组各200例。两组患者均行术前健康教育,观察组在此基础上行放松训练,即采用深吸静息式全身肌肉放松的方法进行训练。两组患者均于确定手术治疗后的当天至手术前1d,术前晚及术日晨评定其焦虑、紧张、恐惧、抑郁、失眠多梦等情绪反映,测定其呼吸、血压、心率等生命体征。结果在焦虑、紧张、抑郁、恐惧、失眠多梦、呼吸、血压、心率等方面,观察组与对照组比较,差异有显著性意义（均P〈0.05）。结论放松训练能使术前患者情绪稳定,呼吸、血压、心率等生命体征平稳。     

新世纪中国入境旅游市场竞争态分析

市场经济体制下区域旅游业发展战略的制定,必须以准确的市场分析与把握为前提。依据市场占有率和增长率的双指标组合,构建一个综合反应旅游市场竞争态的模型,据此将旅游市场划分为明星市场、金牛市场、幼童市场和瘦狗市场四种类型,为旅游业发展战略制定提供了新的分析方法。依据该模型对新世纪中国入境旅游30个客源地市场和31个目的地市场进行了定量划分,分析了各市场在参与中国入境旅游业中所处的地位与态势,为我国入境旅游业的市场开拓提供了新的依据。     

A model to analyse financial fragility

Summary. This paper sets out a tractable model which illuminates problems relating to individual bank behaviour, to possible contagious inter-relationships between banks, and to the appropriate design of prudential requirements and incentives to limit ‘excessive’ risk-taking. Our model is rich enough to include heterogeneous agents, endogenous default, and multiple commodity, and credit and deposit markets. Yet, it is simple enough to be effectively computable and can therefore be used as a practical framework to analyse financial fragility. Financial fragility in our model emerges naturally as an equilibrium phenomenon. Among other results, a non-trivial quantity theory of money is derived, liquidity and default premia co-determine interest rates, and both regulatory and monetary policies have non-neutral effects. The model also indicates how monetary policy may affect financial fragility, thus highlighting the trade-off between financial stability and economic efficiency.Received: 6 November 2003, Revised: 6 October 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: D52, E4, E5, G11, G21.C.A.E. Goodhart, P. Sunirand, D.P. Tsomocos: We are grateful to T.F. Bewley, S. Bhattacharya, F. Hahn, C. Mayer, H.S. Shin and seminar participants at the Bank of Austria, Bank of England, Bank of Norway, Bank for International Settlements, Brown University, the 7th Annual Macroeconomic Conference, Crete, EcoMod-IIOA International Conference, Brussels, the 2nd Oxford Finance Summer Symposium and Nuffield, Oxford, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Purdue University, the University of Birmingham, the VI SAET Conference, Rhodes, Yale University, and especially an anonymous referee and H.M. Polemarchakis for helpful comments. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England. Correspondence to: D.P. Tsomocos     

城市旅游客源市场结构研究：以山东省七市为例

本根据１９９６年９月在山东省济南、泰安、曲阜、淄博、潍坊、烟台、威海７市所作的５４０４份抽样调查问卷,从客源地、性别、年龄、职业、旅游目的五个方面分析了城市旅游客源市场结构特点。     

Exclusive contracts and the institution of bankruptcy

Summary. The paper studies the institution of bankruptcy when exclusive contracts cannot be enforced ex ante, e.g., a bank cannot monitor whether the borrower enters into contracts with other creditors. The institution of bankruptcy enables the bank to enforce its claim to any funds that the borrower has above a fixed bankruptcy protection level. Bankruptcy improves on non-exclusive contractual relationships but is not a perfect substitute for exclusivity ex ante. We characterize the effect of bankruptcy provisions on the equilibrium contracts which borrowers use to raise financing.Received: 6 December 2004, Revised: 15 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D82, G33, K29. Correspondence to: Adriano A. RampiniWe thank the seminar participants at Carnegie Mellon, Columbia, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Pompeu Fabra, Stanford, the CEPR European Summer Symposium in Financial Markets, the NBER Corporate Finance Program Meeting, the SED Annual Meeting, the Texas Finance Festival, the WFA Annual Conference, the Workshop on Information, Financial Markets and the Business Cycle in Rome and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and in particular Marco Bassetto, Alberto Bennardo, Philip Bond, Peter DeMarzo, Andrea Eisfeldt, Michael Fishman, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Denis Gromb, Oliver Hart, Eugene Kandel, John Kareken, Narayana Kocherlakota, Stephan Krasa, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Deborah Lucas, Thomas Noe, Onur Ozgur, Mitchell Petersen, Artur Raviv, Anne Villamil, Jeffrey Zwiebel, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments, and Nisan Langberg for research assistance. Bisin gratefully acknowledges the research support of the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-9818844 and the C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics.     

World Trade and the Environment: Issues and Policies

This paper provides an overview of trade, environmental and related public issues and policies. It discusses the pollution problem, the recent global warming trend, the attempts of various institutions, including the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, regional, national and other organizations, to solve the global trade and environmental issues. The paper also discusses a number of basic theoretical issues and empirical findings, such as the free‐rider problem, the tragedy of the commons, the theory of second best, the relative efficacy of price and quantity control, carbon leakage, border carbon adjustments, the cap‐and‐trade system, the pollution haven hypothesis, the optimal social discount rate and the environmental Kuznets curve. Some computable general equilibrium models are reviewed and several notable World Trade Organization environmental and health‐related trade dispute cases are analysed, including the tuna–dolphin, shrimp–turtle, eco‐labelling, beef‐hormone and genetically modified organism cases.     

智慧城市：全球城市发展新热点

随着全球物联网、新一代移动宽带网络、下一代互联网、云计算等新一轮信息技术的迅速发展和深入应用,“智慧城市”渐行渐近。现在发达国家地区在产业转型和社会发展当中,认识到了“智慧城市”的前瞻性、超前性,相继提出了“智慧城市”的战略举措。“智慧城市”近两年在中国获得不少地方政府的认同。目前,北京、上海、宁波、深圳、无锡、武汉、南京、佛山、昆明、成都等城市已纷纷启动“智慧城市”战略,意在抢占先发优势。     

Stability and equilibrium selection in a link formation game

In this paper we study a static link formation game under consent that has multiple Nash equilibria. In the literature, the use of coalitional refinements has been the standard approach to select among equilibria. Alternatively, based on the Global Games theory, a non cooperative equilibrium selection approach is proposed, so as to select those Nash equilibria that are robust to the introduction of incomplete information. Interestingly, the equilibrium selected is unique and it is in conflict with those predicted by the commonly used coalitional refinements. Furthermore, a conflict is found between stability and efficiency even when no such conflict exists with the coalitional refinements. We are especially grateful to Deborah Minehart, Roger Lagunoff, Daniel Vincent, Peter Cramton, Luca Anderlini, Axel Anderson, Felipe Zurita, Francis Bloch, Colin Stewart, the editor and three anonymous referees for their valuable comments that contributed to improve the paper. We also thank participants at the EEA-ESEM, Stockholm 2003, the IUSC conference, Columbia University 2003, and the Workshop on Global Games, SUNY, Stony Brook, 2007.     

乙肝肝硬化失代偿期治疗方案的成本效果分析

目的对乙肝肝硬化失代偿期治疗方案的成本效果进行探讨与分析。方法抽取我院于2010年4月～2013年4月诊治的88例乙肝肝硬化失代偿期患者,依照随机抽签的方式将患者分成甲、乙、丙、丁四组,每组22例,利用拉米夫定治疗甲组,利用阿德福韦酯治疗乙组,利用拉米夫定+阿德福韦酯联合治疗丙组,利用恩替卡韦治疗丁组,对各组的治疗成本效果进行观察和分析。结果在ALT复常率上,甲、乙、丙、丁四组分别为50.0%、45.5%、72.7%和63.6%;在HBV-DNA转阴率上,甲、乙、丙、丁四组分别为45.5%、40.9%、77.3%和72.7%;在ALT复常率成本效果上,甲组为34463、乙组为41028、丙组为44972、丁组为42020;在HBV-DNA转阴率成本效果上,甲组为36667、乙组为43854、丙组为37540、丁组为38988。结论在治疗乙肝肝硬化失代偿期中,拉米夫定+阿德福韦酯联合治疗方案可作为首选方案。     

河南省新农村建设中的思想政治工作浅析

农村思想政治工作在河南省新农村建设中占有重要地位。近年来,河南省农村思想政治工作在硬件建设、队伍结构、工作方式、工作效果等方面取得了一定成绩,但还存在思想认识缺位、相关投入不足、机制不够完善、文化阵地不足、队伍建设滞后、工作方式陈旧、理想信念淡化、观念意识落后等问题。要解决这些问题,就必须提高河南省农村思想政治工作中基层领导干部的思想认识,增加经济投入和政策支持,完善思想政治工作机制、注重思想政治工作普及性,健全思想政治干部队伍、讲究思想政治工作针对性,创新思想政治工作理念、提高思想政治工作趣味性,提高农村思想政治工作的地位、调动基层干部工作积极性。农村思想政治工作奖是今后一段时间内推动河南省农村思想政治工作的关键     

流动人口空间再造：基于社会地理学视角

流动人口社会空间是原有城市空间底质上经过流动人口的各种实践活动而人格化的空间,是一种再造的空间。首先将流动人口空间再造结果进行归纳,大体有实体空间、行为空间和感应空间三种,具体表现为差异化的空间、隔离的空间、福特制和＂类信息社会＂语境并存下的空间、压缩的空间、弹性的空间、流动的空间、犯罪的空间、压制的空间、再现的空间。其次,借鉴事件史分析法对流动人口空间建构过程开展分析,总体上流动人口社会空间表现为边缘化的空间,这既是自身种种属性特征经过社会化建构过程后的必然结果,也是社会制度歧视、城市政府新自由主义倾向、对城市空间的激烈竞争、企业追逐利润、本地人排挤等共同作用结果。流动人口空间再造的过程也是原有生产关系的再生产过程。最后,面对来自各方的空间压力,流动人口不断进行空间适应性策略调整,不断发展和演化自己与城市之间的关系。     

中国人工智能发展水平、区域差异及分布动态演进

科学有效测度人工智能发展水平是响应国家科技战略的有益尝试。运用熵权法，从制度环境、基础设施、技术创新和生产应用4个维度测度2003—2018年中国省际人工智能发展指数，并采用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计对其区域差异和动态演进进行进一步探究。结果表明，北京、广东、江苏、上海、浙江属于人工智能发展领跑者，山东、辽宁、天津、四川、重庆、湖南、湖北、陕西、福建属于追赶者，其余省份属于落后者；中国人工智能发展区域差异较大，其中，东—西、东—中、东—东北差异是发展差异的主要来源，东部地区内差异和西部地区内差异为次要来源；中国人工智能发展可以分为2003—2006年、2007—2010年、2011—2014年和2015—2018年4个阶段；考察期内，东部地区人工智能发展呈现出扩展效应，东北地区呈现出两极分化效应，中部地区扩展效应和回程效应相当，西部地区呈现出多极化效应。结论可为健全科技评价体系提供理论参考，为研究人工智能对经济社会的影响提供实证数据，为系统布局人工智能发展规划、构筑我国人工智能发展优势提供政策依据。     

Book Review

L'économie polonaise. Plan, investissement, gestion, progrés technique (The Polish economy. Plan, investment, management, technical progress), Cahiers de I'I.S.E.A., Economies et sociétés, vol. IV, No. 1, January 1970, 342 pp. International Labour Office : Towards Full Employment. A Programme for Colombia, Prepared by an Inter-Agency Team Organized by the International Labour Office, Geneva, 1970, 471 pp. Fernand Baudhuin : Histoire économique de la Belgique, 1957-1968 (Economic History of Belgium, 1957-1968), Emile Bruylant (Publ.), Brussels, 1970, 514 pages. Reinhold Henzler : Der genossenschaftliche Grundauftrag: Förderung der Mitglieder (The co-operative's basic task: to help its members) collected treatises and contributions), publications of the German Co-operative Fund, Frankfurt-am-Main, 1970, vol. 8, 347 pp. State AND Cooperative Development , published by Allied Publishers for International Cooperative Alliance, New Delhi, 1971, 194 pages.     

Equilibria in a dynamic global game: the role of cohort effects

Summary. We introduce strategic waiting in a global game setting with irreversible investment. Players can wait in order to make a better informed decision. We allow for cohort effects, which arise endogenously in technology adoption problems with positive contemporaneous network effects. Formally, cohort effects lead to intra-period network effects being greater than inter-period network effects. Depending on the nature of the cohort effects, our game may or may not satisfy dynamic increasing differences. If it does, our model has a unique rationalizable outcome. Otherwise, multiple equilibria may exist as players want to invest at the same point in time others do.Received: 13 July 2004, Revised: 20 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, C73, D82, D83.We thank George-Marios Angeletos, Helmut Bester, Andreas Blume, Estelle Cantillon, Frank Heinemann, Christian Hellwig, Larry Karp, Tobias Kretschmer, In Ho Lee, Robin Mason and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. We also thank seminar participants at the EEA-meeting in Stockholm 2003, ESRC Workshop in Warwick 2004, Free University Berlin, IAE (Barcelona), Keele, MIT, Southampton, University of Pittsburgh, and at a CEPR-conference in Brussels 2002 for comments, and the European Union for providing financial support through the TMR network on network industries (Contract number FMRX-CT98-0203). This paper was completed while the first author visited the Department of Economics at MIT, whose hospitality he gratefully acknowledges.     

Financial liberalization and short-run housing price dynamics

We develop a continuous time, rational expectations, multi-cohort model of an exchange economy with housing, the purchase of which is subject to a down payment (DP) constraint. The timing of the house purchase decision is a crucial endogenous variable, and four determinants of it are identified – the housing services effect, the interest discounting effect, the consumption smoothing effect, and the rate of price increase effect. Cohort effects, and supply constraints, play crucial roles at the aggregative level. We explore in detail the effects of a discrete financial liberalization, and show that if the liberalization is not announced sufficiently far in advance, housing prices will initially overshoot the new stationary equilibrium, and vice versa. Particular attention is paid to the possibility that for a subset of cohorts along the transition path the DP constraint will not bind. An interesting ‘Prisoners’ Dilemma’ is also identified, and policy implications discussedJEL Classification Numbers: E3, R21Valuable comments and suggestions from Phillip Brock, Ho Kong-Weng, Liu Haoming, David McKenzie, David Miles, Jacques Olivier, Phang Sock-Yong, J. Thampapillai, Ping Wang, Wong Wing-Keung, and Zeng Jinli are gratefully acknowledged. I am also immensely indebted to an anonymous referee, whose incisive, deep and patient comments, on successive drafts, helped greatly to sharpen and improve the paper, as well as to the Editor and the Co-Editor, Professor Mordecai Kurz, for their invaluable advice and encouragement. An earlier version was presented at a Conference in Honour of Ronald McKinnon, held at Stanford University in June 2002