Wage indexation and the unemployment-inflation trade-off

A variety of wage indexation schemes are analyzed in the context of a simple dynamic disequilibrium macroeconomic model. These indexation schemes include rigid money wages (zero indexation), rigid real wages (full indexation), and intermediate cases (partial indexation). In a situation of unemployment, aggregate demand increases produce the most desirable results under rigid money wages. In a situation of excess demand for labor, aggregate demand increases produce the least desirable effects under rigid money wages. Mixed indexation schemes, in which money or real wages are rigid downward, are also examined as are the effects of stop-go policies.     

Imperfect Competition and the Gains from Trade in a Macro Duopoly Model

A general-equilibrium duopoly trade model is developed. In the micro model, constant-elasticity market demand curves produce backward-bending reaction functions. This is combined with a macro analysis in which the real wage is determined competitively, while nominal variables depend on the money supply. Trade can lead to large increases in aggregate output, employment, and real wages. The gains from trade are the result of increases in market size, and greater competition in each market. The benefits of trade are largest when marginal-cost curves slope downward and the labor supply curve is elastic.     

无就业增长与非均衡劳工市场动态学

本文直接模拟了劳工市场的非均衡过程、工资动态轨迹、经济人的最优行为和适应性优化行为。劳动供给源于家庭的效用最大化 ,劳动需求源于企业的利润最大化。企业的适应性优化行为和若干制度因素构成了工资刚性的基本要素 ,劳工市场的供求力量也是影响工资变动的重要因素。根据劳动生产率的变化对工资进行适应性的调节是现实世界企业工资决策的普遍实践。工资刚性与高劳动生产率并存是造成无就业增长的真正原因     

The labor market and corporate structure

We analyze the impact of labor demand and labor market regulations on the corporate structure of firms. Higher wages are associated with lower monitoring, irrespective of whether these high wages are caused by labor market regulations, unions or higher labor demand. We also find that the organization of firms has important macroeconomic implications. In particular, monitoring is a type of “rent-seeking” activity and the decentralized equilibrium spends excessive resources on monitoring. Labor market regulations that reduce monitoring by pushing wages up may increase net output or reduce it only by a small amount even though they reduce employment.     

Labor market search and real business cycles: reconciling Nash bargaining with the real wage dynamics

This paper modifies the standard one-sector stochastic growth model in an effort to explain the observed low procyclicality of the aggregate real wage in the USA. The modifications include labor market matching with Nash-bargaining of wages and preferences as introduced in the literature by Rogerson and Wright [Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (3) (1988) 501–516]. These preferences are non-separable in consumption and leisure. They imply that in an equilibrium with efficient risk-sharing, the utility of employed agents exceeds that of unemployed agents. The simulation results suggest that our modified model overcomes one important weakness of the standard model, namely the predicted high contemporaneous correlation of the aggregate real wage with both output and labor input.     

Skills,sunspots and cycles

This paper explores the ability of a class of one-sector, multi-input models to generate indeterminate equilibrium paths, and endogenous fluctuations, without relying on factors’ hoarding. The model presents a novel theoretical economic mechanism that supports sunspot-driven expansions without requiring upward sloping labor demand schedules. Its distinctive characteristic is that the skill composition of aggregate labor demand drives expansionary i.i.d. demand shocks. Next, the model explains the labor market dynamics from the supply side, while endogenizing the capital productivity response to changes in the aggregate labor demand composition. Last but not least, it is worth to mention that the model presents an effective shock propagation mechanism that operates into the labor market and across labor market segments through the cross elasticities of equilibrium labor demand and supplies.      

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

Aggregate supply management in a small open economy

For a closed economy a cut in either payroll or income taxes stimulates output, but they influence the price level in different directions. In a two-sector, small open economy these conclusions are much more tenuous. Using a model that maintains equilibrium in the only two purely domestic markets, labor and nontradeables, it is established that a payroll-tax cut increases the size of the labor force, but does not guarantee higher real income. For either tax cut, prices and output move in opposite directions. In the short run when wages are “sticky,” an income-tax cut has the undesirable effect of increasing unemployment. In the face of a supply shock that reduces demand for labor, a payroll-tax cut can reestablish the original equilibrium.     

Politics, economics, and nursing shortages: a critical look at United States government policies

The economic concept that the independent actions of buyers and sellers tend to move the market toward equilibrium where there is no shortage or surplus is basic in the classic and current literature of economics. The problem with subsidies is that nurses who receive subsidized educations are able to provide nursing services for less compensation because they paid less or nothing for their educations. Subsidies may be politically appealing, but they override market forces of supply and demand. The demand for nurses and nursing instructors can be met and maintained for generations to come with policies that expand roles and reimbursement for APNs and encourage the nurse and nursing instructor labor markets to correct themselves by providing fair compensation under Magnet status working conditions. Politics and policies meant to correct the nursing shortage should focus less on how to reduce the cost of producing nurses, and more on how to afford to compensate nurses with wages and benefits that achieve market equilibrium.     

Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States*

We use a 12‐dimensional VAR to examine the aggregate effects of two structural technology shocks and two policy shocks. For each shock, we examine the dynamic effects on the labor market, the importance of the shock for labor market volatility, and the comovement between labor market variables and other key aggregate variables in response to the shock. We document that labor market indicators display “hump‐shaped” responses to the identified shocks. Technology shocks and monetary policy shocks are important for labor market volatility but the ranking of their importance is sensitive to the VAR specification. The conditional correlations at business cycle frequencies are similar in response to the four shocks, apart from the correlations between hours worked, labor productivity and real wages. To account for the unconditional correlations between these variables, a mixture of shocks is required.     

COLLECTIVE BARGAINING,AWARENESS OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS,AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

We explore the significance of general equilibrium feedback effects for wage‐bargaining. We examine a two‐sector economy and show that if agents only consider labor demand effects low real wages and low unemployment are the consequences. With an intermediate view, i.e., when partial equilibrium effects within a sector are taken into account, high real wages and unemployment result. If all general equilibrium effects are perceived simultaneously, we once again obtain a situation with low wages and unemployment. The results may explain why unemployment is high in some European countries.     

An alternative measure of wage flexibility

Wage flexibility is usually defined as the responsiveness of wages to market disequilibrium. But market disequilibrium can be defined in different ways. One can accept a non-Walrasian definition of equilibrium, the market being in equilibrium when agents have no incentive to change their decisions, even if a change of wages can improve their position. To study the behavior of wages as an equilibrating variable, it is appropriate to consider Walrasian demand and supply functions, in which wages are allowed to move in each period in a direction to restore equilibrium between Walrasian demand and supply, even when agents experience restrictions and take notice of these restrictions when making decisions. The degree of wage flexibility is most often measured as the amount of equilibrating change that took place in a certain period. In most wage equations wage flexibility is measured by the coefficient of the unemployment variable, which links the equilibrating change in the wage variable to the degree of market disequilibrium. The equalization of market disequilibrium with unemployment poses some problems. The authors wish to thank Freddy Heylen of the University of Gent for helpful comments.     

An aggregate model of the Canadian labor market

The paper develops and estimates a small equilibrium model of the Canadian postwar labor market. The framework is imperfect competition in product and labor markets which, we argue, is forced upon us by the empirical fact that real wages do not on their own explain the business cycle. The framework incorporates on the supply side the effects of both unemployment benefits and the terms of trade. These variables, together with demand side effects, are then used to account Canadian unemployment. A pleasing feature of the model is that it is quite econometrically stable over the turbulent '80s.     

Technical Progress and Real Wages Once again

We construct a general equilibrium model of trade and show that an economy can experience technological progress and declining real wages provided that it is open to trade and import demand is sufficiently inelastic in both countries. This is a puzzling outcome so far as marginal productivity paradigm is concerned. In this context we demonstrate that new technology works differently in a closed vs an open economy. In an open economy, technical improvements may generate a fall in labor real earnings, but not in a closed economy. In addition, technical progress in manufacturing must increase manufacturing–service wage gap according to marginal productivity doctrine. We show that the opposite outcome can occur theoretically in an open economy—yet another seemingly puzzling labor market outcome.     

Money disillusion and stagflation

In the conventional income-expenditure model with rigid wages, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping. Increases in demand therefore imply increases in real output and employment. We demonstrate here that this conclusion depends on the form of money illusion implied by the rigid wage assumption. If we assume instead that labor supply is more sensitive to price increases than to wage increases, the aggregate supply curve is negatively sloped, and the conventional policy multipliers are thereby reversed. In the second section, we show that this result also follows if labor supply depends on the expected real wage.     

The Impact of Incomes Policy on Aggregate Wage Determination in Australia*

A model of aggregate wage determination for Australia is developed and used to examine the effects of incomes policies on the level of real wages. A theoretical model of wage determination which includes several channels of incomes policy effects is specified and estimated using aggregate data. The results provide strong evidence to support the view that during periods of certain incomes policies there have been important changes in behaviour in the Australian labour market. In particular, during the period of the Prices and Incomes Accord it is estimated that equilibrium real wages were over 5 per cent below what would have been expected from previous experience.     

Wage Cyclicality and Composition Bias in the Norwegian Economy*

Using employer–employee register data, I estimate the real wage semi-elasticity of aggregate unemployment for the years 1997–2014 in the Norwegian private sector. An increase of 1 percentage point in aggregate unemployment is associated with an average decrease of 2 percent in (total) daily wages. Although Norway has influential labor market institutions, wages in the Norwegian private sector are quite sensitive to business-cycle fluctuations. Gender differences in wage cyclicality and compositional variation are considerable. Men have significantly more procyclical wages than women, and appear more likely to upgrade procyclically to better-paying firms.     

Is there a Laffer curve between aggregate output and public sector employment?

This paper develops a model of the relationship between public sector employment, total output and aggregate real demand in market prices, where public employment has a positive productivity effect on private output. Public employment crowds out private employment and output because its increase induces higher wages and taxes. The valuation of government output is also taken into account. While public employment affects total output and aggregate real demand in an a priori ambiguous way, numerical simulations suggest that the relationship may be nonlinear; positive, when public sector is “small” and negative, when it is “large”. Using the annual data from 22 OECD countries over the period 1960–1996 and estimating and testing for threshold models and more commonly used specifications with multiplicative interaction terms give support to this nonlinearity hypothesis between public employment and private sector output. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

The British labor market in disequilibrium: Did the dole reduce employment in interwar Britain?

In this paper we estimate an econometric model of the labor market in interwar Britain. We reject the hypothesis that wages adjust sufficiently speedily to clear the labor market in each year in favor of a disequilibrium model in which the level of employment is determined by the lesser of labor demand or supply. We find that the level of unemployment benefits is a key determinant of labor supply. We estimate that a reduction in benefits to approximately half the 1925-38 average would have resulted in an increase in employment of between eight and twelve percent.     

Can minimum wages cause a big push? Evidence from Indonesia

Big Push models suggest that local product demand can create multiple labor market equilibria: one featuring high wages, formalization, and high demand and one with low wages, informality, and low demand. I demonstrate that minimum wages may coordinate development at the high wage equilibrium. Using data from 1990s Indonesia, where minimum wages increased in a varied way, I develop a difference in spatial differences estimator which weakens the common trend assumption of difference in differences. Estimation reveals strong trends in support of a big push: formal employment increases and informal employment decreases in response to the minimum wage. Local product demand also increases, and this formalization occurs only in the non-tradable, industrializable industries suggested by the model (while employment in tradable and non-industrializable industries also conforms to model predictions).