上市公司并购效应实证分析

本文应用实证分析的方法对我国上市公司的并购模式和并购效应进行了分析和研究，结论是：通过并购虽然企业的经营效益没有特别明显的增强，但是在股东资本增值的前提下实现了企业规模的快速扩张，产业结构得到了优化。     

银行并购微观效应分析

银行并购微观效应是指并购对交易双方及其股东所带来的影响,即银行并购能否实现对银行效率和股东价值的提升。本文在分析研究银行并购微观效应及分析方法的基础上,归纳分析了现有文献对银行并购微观效应的实证结果,并对这一结果———并购未能带来预期的、令人满意的绩效提高,从不同的角度进行了阐释分析,为人们全面认识银行并购效应进行了有益探索。     

沪深两市上市公司并购房地产企业的财富效应实证研究

近年来,上市公司作为我国优秀企业的代表,凭借其雄厚的资金实力和多方位的融资渠道展开了对房地产企业的并购。上市公司并购房地产企业的财富效应如何？上市公司并购房地产企业后是增加还是减少了上市公司股东的财富？本文以2003～2005年发生并购房地产企业的上市公司为研究对象,通过实证分析,解答以上问题。     

企业并购的财务效应分析

企业并购是兼并和收购的统称,企业并购具有多方面的效应,它不仅可以提高企业管理效率,分散企业经营风险,还能通过并购达到一定的规模,增加企业市场占有率。并购犹如一把双刃剑,对我国经济产生积极影响的同时也有其不利的一面,产生的财务效应也分为正向效应和负向效应。本文阐述了企业并购的理论以及动因。结合具体案例从正、负两方面分析企业并购的财务效应。分析企业并购中存在的问题以及解决措施。     

我国上市公司并购方式效应分析

并购可以增加企业的价值，优化社会资源的配置。但是，在我国上市公司的企业并购是否真的优化了资源配置，要结合中国市场的实际进行分析。本文以2001年我国上市公司（沪市）控股权发生转移的全部71家公司的并购为样本，以公司每股收益、主营业务收入、净利润和净资产收益率为指标，以2001年和2002年的数据为基础，分析并购效应通过实证分析形成结论：在我国上市公司并购中，采取横向并购的公司业绩较好，且在并购中占主导地位。     

同行业企业并购决策的同伴效应及内在机制

并购是当前国内外企业常用的发展战略之一,是提升企业竞争力、增加经济效益的重要手段。本文从非理性行为视角出发,采集2010—2018年间A股市场中重大资产并购重组数据作为研究样本进行实证分析。研究发现,上市企业并购决策存在同伴效应;信息传输、软件和信息技术服务等新兴行业的企业同行并购频率对企业并购概率产生的影响小于制造业等传统行业;民营企业之间的并购同伴效应强于国有企业,但同伴效应在不同权属企业之间不具有传递性;高管联结程度高的企业并购同伴效应大于低联结程度企业。因此,建议加强对民营企业、传统行业、高管高联结企业并购非理性行为的监管,避免由于企业盲目跟风给企业绩效带来损失。     

当代企业并购效应理论研究述评

西方学者对并购动因和效应的研究是与西方并购浪潮相互联系的,并进行财务经济学解释。在20世纪80年代以前的三次并购浪潮中,西方学者主要是研究并购动因,自第四次并购浪潮发生以来,从研究动因转向更多地用实证方法研究并购效果或效应。西方研究并购效应常用事件研究法(Event Study)和会计研究方法(Accounting Study)两种方法。事件研究法就是研究并购前后参与并购双方股价在特定期间内的变化情况,计算股东取得的累计非正常收益以说明并购效应;会计研究方法则是研究并购前后的企业财务指标的变化,主要用总资产报酬率、净资产收益率以及企业…     

高新技术上市公司连续并购的同伴效应研究——企业研发的调节作用

利用2010—2019年中国A股高新技术上市公司数据,实证检验高新技术上市公司连续并购是否存在同伴效应,并探讨企业研发在连续并购同伴效应中的作用机制。研究发现,高新技术上市公司的连续并购行为受行业同伴效应和地域同伴效应的显著正向影响,企业研发对连续并购的同伴效应具有调节作用,具体表现为研发投入对连续并购同伴效应的正向调节,以及研发产出对连续并购同伴效应的负向调节。进一步研究发现,不同经济政策环境下,行业同伴效应和地域同伴效应存在强度差异;连续并购次数不同的高新技术公司,其研发投入和研发产出的调节作用表现出非对称性。     

企业并购的社会福利效应分析

本在综合考虑企业并购可造成的潜在垄断及其产生的效率优势基础上,对发生并购的几种可能情况进行了局部均衡分析,以阐明并购的社会福利效应,并得出结论：对于企业并购后由于市场垄断力增强而使产品价格上升的情况,若效率优势达到一定程度,仍可增进社会福利;而对于并购后价格下降的情况,并购是无条件地增进了社会福利。这一结论对于我国改革企业产权制度和完善资本市场,推进企业并购市场化、社会化和规范化发展提供了有益的启示。     

1998年中国上市公司并购实践的效应分析

对上市公司的收购是中国股市近些年出现的新现象 ,本文以 1 998年深沪两市发生的全部 67家公司的并购为样本 ,以公司净资产收益率 (NROA)和主业利润率(CROA)为指标 ,将所有样本根据并购原因划分为 6类 ,以并购前 2年和并购后 3年的数据为基础 ,系统分析了并购的效应与得失。在此基础上 ,还讨论了国有企业与民营企业作为收购方的并购效应和并购的有偿转让与无偿划拨方式的不同结果。文章的结论是 :业绩较差的公司较愿出让控股权 ;多数并购是战略性的 ,获上市地位是主要的并购动力 ;并购后主业得到明显加强 ;市场化的战略性并购效果较好 ,有偿并购的效果也较好。     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Valuing Mangrove-Fishery Linkages – A Case Study of Campeche, Mexico

This paper explores the value of mangrove systems as a breeding and nursery habitat for off-shore fisheries, focusing on mangrove-shrimp production linkages in Campeche State, Mexico. We develop an open access fishery model to account explicitly for the effect of mangrove area on carrying capacity and thus production. From the long-run equilibrium conditions of the model we are able to establish the key parameters determining the comparative static effects of a change in mangrove area on this equilibrium. We then estimate empirically the effects of changes in mangrove area in the Laguna de Terminos on the production and value of shrimp harvests in Campeche over 1980–90. Our findings suggest that mangroves are an important and essential input into the Campeche shrimp fishery, but that the low levels of deforestation between 1980 and 1990 mean that the resulting losses to the shrimp fishery are still comparatively small. Over-exploitation of the fishery due to open access conditions remains the more pervasive threat, and without better management any long-run benefits of protecting mangrove habitat are likely to be dissipated.     

An Economic Analysis and Simulation of Woodfuel Management in the Sahel

This paper presents an economic framework and a computationalmethodology for assessing the evolution of woodfuel supply costsand the spatial distribution of biomass in a Sahelian woodlandsetting. Spatial data on standing stock and the costs oftransport to market are used to construct a supply curve for fuelto a fuel-consuming location. Given an exogenously specifieddemand, the model simulates, period by period, the extraction,regeneration, and transport of wood fuels. The model is appliedto evaluate the benefits and ecological impacts of scenarios forwoodland management around the city of N'Djamena, Chad.     

Evidence on the impact of R&D and ICT investments on innovation and productivity in Italian firms

Both research and development (R&D) and information and communication technology (ICT) investment have been identified as sources of relative innovation underperformance in Europe vis-à-vis the USA. In this article, we investigate the R&D and ICT investment at the firm level in an effort to assess their relative importance and to what extent they are complements or substitutes. We use data on a large unbalanced panel data sample of Italian manufacturing firms constructed from four consecutive waves of a survey of manufacturing firms, to estimate a version of the CDM model of R&D, innovation, and productivity [Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse 1998. Research, innovation and productivity: An econometric analysis at the firm level. Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7, no. 2: 115–58] that has been modified to include ICT investment and R&D as the two main inputs into innovation and productivity. We find that R&D and ICT are both strongly associated with innovation and productivity, with R&D being more important for innovation, and ICT investment being more important for productivity. For the median firm, rates of return to both investments are so high that they suggest considerably underinvestment in both these activities. We explore the possible complementarity between R&D and ICT in innovation and production, but find none, although we do find complementarity between R&D and worker skill in innovation.     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

新员工主动社会化行为与组织承诺关系研究——以社会资本为中介变量

为了探索新员工主动社会化行为影响组织承诺的过程,本文对来自企业的401个有效样本进行了实证分析。本研究运用层级回归的方法,控制了人口统计变量的影响后,发现员工的搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为对组织承诺有直接的正面影响,同时,通过员工社会资本对员工组织承诺产生了间接的正面影响。社会资本在员工搜寻信息和搜寻绩效反馈行为影响组织承诺的机制中起部分中介作用。员工的关系构建行为对组织承诺没有显著影响,但对员工社会资本存在显著的正面影响。