政府和企业对产业共性技术两种研发投资类型的比例研究

基于产业共性技术研发在新形势下经济转型升级中的战略意义以及共性技术研发投资的“死亡谷”效应,构建了政府和企业两个投资主体、预研投资和研发投资两种投资类型的柯布道格拉斯生产函数（CD生产函数）投资博弈模型。通过最优反应函数求解,得到不同政府预算占比情况下共性技术研发投资的纳什均衡,探索了政府和企业对两种投资的最优比例,并通过案例分析验证了模型的有效性。结果发现,政府在产业共性技术投资供给中更倾向于预研投资,企业在产业共性技术投资供给中更倾向于研发投资;政府应根据产业发展不同阶段,适时调整功能定位,针对产业共性技术研发投资,动态调整支持方式和支持力度。     

产业共性技术政府支持性研究

基于产业共性技术的公共品特性,政府理应在推动产业共性技术发展中发挥积极作用,这对于加速产业结构升级及创新型国家建设具有重要意义。为了加强政府对产业共性技术发展的支持力度,更好地推动共性技术的创新发展,我国应强化顶层设计,加强产业共性技术创新发展战略规划;完善产业共性技术平台建设,优化共性技术的扩散机制;健全技术经济政策;支持产业共性技术的研发;扩散和应用     

美国和日本光互连技术研究及其借鉴

光互连作为未来取代电互连加速计算机电路板间及芯片间数据传输能力和处理能力的一种互连方式,正受到世界各国的关注。美国和日本是全球光电子理论研究、技术研究以及成果产业化方面的领先国家。美国政府通过制定科学发展战略、建立产业协会等方式引导资本进入光电子领域,通过实施信息高速公路等一系列重大产业计划来推动光互连技术相关的光通讯技术的发展;日本政府较早地认识到光电产业在国际科技战略发展中的重要地位,通过成立光产业技术振兴协会整合企业和政府资源,将"光通信网络"的建设放在国家基础设施的首位。通过从产业政策、光互连项目开展及研发情况两方面介绍美国、日本的光互连技术开展情况,并总结其经验,以期为我国发展光互连技术研究提供参考。     

发达国家战略性新兴产业的技术政策及其启示

虽然发达国家没有"战略性新兴产业"的明确提法,但其对确立新兴产业的战略地位支持新兴产业发展方面却有着历史传统和前瞻视野,其依托新兴技术的产业也可统称为战略性新兴产业。本文对美国、英国、德国、日本等一些主要发达国家21世纪以来,特别是2008年全球金融危机后的战略性新兴产业的技术政策进行了较为系统的梳理和总结。文章认为,美英德日等国均从本国实际情况出发,并着眼于未来经济社会发展趋势和技术发展方向,对战略性新兴产业的侧重点做出了具体选择。各国均十分注重政府扶持对战略性新兴产业发展的促进作用,通过制定一系列具有很强操作性的政策措施,积极推进战略性新兴产业的关键技术开发、示范与应用,同时为促进战略性新兴产业发展营造良好的市场环境。这也对我国制定并完善促进战略性新兴产业发展的政策措施提供了重要启示。     

产业共性技术发展的政府作用研究

产业共性技术为多项其它技术提供基础,具有宽广的应用范围和众多的技术使用者,由此决定了产业共性技术的供给存在双重失灵:市场失灵和组织失灵。在此基础上,本文进一步探讨了政府在共性技术供给过程中要同时解决市场失灵和组织失灵的问题。     

共性技术，发达国家如何开发？

世界各国对共性技术的开发模式，主要有以美国、欧盟、加拿大等为代表的政府引导型模式，以日本、韩国为代表的政府主导型模式。政府的作用不一样，对于共性技术的支持所采取的具体方式也不一样。     

产业技术创新战略联盟的性质、分类与政府支持

产业技术创新战略联盟是合作研发的组织模式之一,承载着产业发展的目标,通过合作研发取得产业共性技术,并在联盟和全行业中扩散,最终实现产业竞争力的提升。产业共性技术的复杂性和准公共品性质、联盟合作创新的困境,决定了政府支持产业技术创新战略联盟的必要性。产业技术创新战略联盟有多种类型,政府应针对不同类型的联盟提供不同的支持。在明确产业技术创新战略联盟的内涵及性质的基础上,按照3个维度对其进行了分类,并借鉴国外经验给出了当前我国政府提供政策支持的建议。     

国外关键共性技术供给体系发展的做法及启示

关键共性技术对优化产业结构、促进产业转型及提升产业竞争力具有至关重要作用,它通常体现一定时期内国家产业发展的战略意志。目前,我国关键共性技术供给系统失衡,内生创新能力薄弱,阻碍了我国自主创新和产业优化升级的进程。改善我国关键共性技术供给现状,需厚植创新环境,构建以创新导向为核心的官产学研多方协同的供给体系,营造具有国家意志、财政支持的良好制度设计,为弥补关键共性技术制度缺失和促进我国自主创新战略发展奠定坚实理论依据。     

基于参与者智力决策的产业关键共性技术创新研究

基于ElinorOstrom的IAD延伸模型及对浙江273家代表性装备制造企业的问卷调查,运用二元Logistic回归模型,实证分析了企业这一最重要的创新主体参与产业关键共性技术创新的影响因素及其程度。研究发现：企业状况与其参与产业关键共性技术创新的意愿不完全相关;企业技术状况感知、外部行动状况及创新结果信息了解程度对企业的产业关键共性技术创新决策具有显著影响。因此,应采取“抓大”策略,构建和完善“政府主导、市场引导、广泛合作、互利共赢”的产业关键共性技术供给体系,加强区域共性技术创新平台建设,以促进产业关键共性技术的创新与有效供给。     

国内外养老产业政策比较研究——以中日养老产业政策比较为例

着重分析了日本养老产业的制度和政策,通过与日本养老产业与市场的政策支持比较,发现中国养老产业政策存在的主要问题,并用发达国家养老产业的经验启示来思考中国养老产业政策发展的新思路。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.