The impact of trade agreements on world export prices

This paper uncovers new stylized facts on the relation between economic integration and world trade prices. Using free on board export price data for the universe of manufacturing products, we show that a country's membership in the WTO (World Trade Organization) or in a PTA (Preferential Trade Agreement) is associated with an increase in export prices of differentiated goods. For the WTO, this effect is captured by the countries that were subject to rigorous WTO accession procedures. We also exploit the importance of the depth of a PTA and of its different provisions. Whereas the effect of the depth per se is not significant, individual provisions evoke distinct effects on prices. In particular, we find that PTAs with provisions on investments are associated with higher export prices. The results are consistent with theoretical models that relate competition to the innovation behavior of firms.     

Reconciling the WTO Effects on Trade at the Extensive and Intensive Margins

Empirical studies examining the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) membership have produced disparate results. These studies, however, have focused on total aggregate trade flows. In this paper, we utilize disaggregated product level data to examine the impact of WTO membership on the product level extensive and intensive margin of imports. Utilizing the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation that allows for heteroskedasticity in trade data and accounting for several estimation issues, we do not find a positive impact on either margins between WTO member country-pairs. Once we examine asymmetries in trade flows across countries based on their level of development, we find that developing WTO members experience an increase in the extensive margin from industrial member countries. Additionally, the industrial WTO members also experience an increase in the extensive margin from developing WTO members. Results suggest that WTO facilitates the North–South trade relationship, which has been largely absent in trade literature.     

The impact of the ACFTA on ASEAN–PRC trade: estimates based on an extended gravity model for component trade

This article uses an extended gravity model to examine the impact of the free trade agreement between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on their trade flows and patterns. New determinants are utilized to capture the growing importance of global production sharing and intraregional trade in parts and components in East Asia. We show that the free trade agreement leads to substantially higher and more pronounced bilateral trade flows between ASEAN and the PRC than what a conventional gravity model predicts and the increase is concentrated in ASEAN countries that have stronger industrial linkages with the PRC.     

Free Trade Agreements and the Prospects for Regional Integration in East Asia

Trade policy in East Asia has switched from non-discriminatory unilateral liberalization, reinforced by General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO) commitments, to discriminatory free trade agreements (FTA). The paper surveys the FTA activity of the major regional players: China, the ASEAN countries, Japan, and South Korea. It concludes that emerging FTAs are weak and partial. A hub-and-spoke pattern of dirty FTAs will not drive regional economic integration or further integration with the global economy. Rather, it could be a force of regional economic disintegration – especially if the multilateral trading system weakens further. At the same time, FTA activity is distracting attention from the WTO, and, more fundamentally, from unilateral liberalization and domestic structural reforms. Hence, East Asian trade policies need to be rebalanced, with better-quality FTAs and more focus on the WTO. However, more important than the WTO and FTAs is a fresh spurt of unilateral liberalization and structural reform outside trade negotiations.     

出口国技术水平与进口国知识产权保护的互动效应对出口国出口贸易的影响——基于中国出口贸易的实证

利用2007—2014年中国对112个国家出口贸易的面板数据,实证研究了中国技术水平、进口国知识产权保护及两者的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响。结果显示:中国技术水平与高收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应对中国出口贸易的影响显著为负,而与低收入进口国知识产权保护的交互效应的影响并不显著。这说明,中国出口产品技术水平的提升,对高收入进口国企业的威胁加大,迫使其建立更严苛的贸易壁垒,抑制中国企业出口。     

Institutions,Institutionalism: 1776–1974

Since developing countries were relatively free from the trade regulations relating to export promotion policies until 1994, the northeast Asian dynamic economies could pursue export promotion policies aggressively during the period of rapid economic growth. Under the current World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are restrictions or even prohibitions on the developing countries' use of export promotion policies. One may doubt the fairness of the current WTO system, which regulates the use of export promotion policies regardless of different economic development levels. The current paper suggests various ways of allowing developing countries to develop their production capacities and exports of manufactured products. It also provides suggestions on modifying the current WTO regulations in favor of the export promotion policies of developing countries. Such special treatment of developing countries could be justified from the viewpoint of distributional fairness applied to international trade relations.     

How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Influence Trade?

This paper empirically estimates the trade effects of technical barriers to trade (TBT) based on all TBT notifications from 105 World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during 1995–2008. The paper adopts a modified two‐stage gravity model to control for both sample selection bias and firm heterogeneity bias. It was found that a country's TBT notifications decrease other countries' probability of exporting, but increase their export volumes. The result can be explained by the TBT's differential effects on the fixed and variable cost of export, and consumer confidence. It was further found that (i) a developing country's TBT have significant effects on other developing countries' exports, but no significant effects on the developed countries' exports, (ii) a developed country's TBT have significant effects on the exports from both types of countries, and (iii) exports from developed countries are affected by a developed country's TBT more seriously than a developing country's TBT.     

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single‐country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's real GDP and total employment are expected to rise by small degrees, while the general price level may decline by a few percentage points. Total imports would rise by more than 10%, whereas total exports would increase far less. China's trade surplus is, therefore, likely to shrink substantially and its dependence upon foreign trade is likely to rise by a few percentage points. A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the simulation results. A comparison with other CGE studies on China's trade liberalization also shows the plausibility of this study's predictions.

JEL Classification: F17, C68     

东亚区域经济合作新模式:中国-东盟自由贸易区

2001年11月在第五次东盟与中国领导人（10＋1）会议上，中国与东盟达成一致，确立了10年内建成中国－东盟自由贸易区的目标。这对双方关系的长远发展和东亚地区的繁荣稳定具有深远意义。它是中国继加入世界贸易组织后又一件对外经贸方面的重大事件。本就这一东亚区域合作的新模式产生的国际背景，以及实现目标所面临的困难进行分析。     

Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany

We focus on discussing the impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany, particularly in agricultural products, based on some most recent proposals. Firstly, structural breaks caused by those events are detected. Then the Box–Cox model and a new tree-form Constant Market Share (CMS) model are fitted to discover the long-term impact of those events on the trade relationship between China and Germany and the growth causes of China's exports to Germany. We found that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on China's exports and its market share in agricultural products, but a positive short-term impact on its market share in industrial products and a positive long-term impact on its exports and market share in both classes. The tree-form CMS model shows the growth of China's exports to Germany due to competitiveness after this event was much higher than before. The financial crisis exhibited a negative short-term impact on China's exports to Germany, but a positive short-term impact on China's market share and the trade relationship between both countries in industrial products. China's market share in agricultural products was not affected by the financial crisis.     

Closer Economic Relations with East Asia?

This paper examines Australia's economic links with East Asia and the policy implications of these links. The main issue is whether Australia should join the regional trading arrangements with East Asian countries that have been proposed. It examines the factors which determine the share of East Asia in Australian exports. One of these, the country bias factor, is threatened by proposed regional trading arrangements which might exclude Australia. After considering the costs of exclusion, the paper concludes that Australia should consider developing new bilateral or regional trade arrangements with countries in East Asia.     

Do oil price changes really matter to the trade balance? Evidence from Korea-ASEAN commodity trade data

The contribution of this article is to assess the effect of oil prices have on the trade balance in the framework of bilateral commodity trade data between Korea and each of the four ASEAN member countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume the effects of oil price changes to be symmetric and apply the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to the subject. We find that the price of crude oil indeed has an important role in affecting Korea's trade balance with those four ASEAN economies in both the long- and short-run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the nonlinear ARDL method to reveal that there is evidence that changes in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on the trade balance for certain products in the long- and short-run.     

Do state trading exporters distort trade?

In this paper, we analyse the trade-distorting effects of state trading enterprises (STEs) which exist in some exporting countries. Because of these potential effects, several countries have raised the issue of state enterprises in the Doha Round negotiations in the WTO. The belief is that STEs in certain developed countries have trade effects which are equivalent to an export subsidy. STEs also exist in developing countries, though since the aim of government policy may differ from the developed country case, the trade distortion may be equivalent to an export tax. We present a theoretical model that is sufficiently general to allow us to consider the case of exporting STEs in developed and developing economies. The model is calibrated with data on two examples of STEs, one typical of an STE in a developed country, the other typical of an STE in a developing economy. In each case, we allow for differences in the nature of the STE's pay-off function. The overall conclusion is that STEs do distort trade and the trade distortion effect is potentially significant.     

How China is Reorganizing the World Economy*

We analyze the impact of China's integration into the global economy on other countries, Asian countries in particular. We first examine how the growth of China's exports is affecting the exports of other countries in Asia and the rest of the world. Our innovation is to distinguish exports of capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediates and to disaggregate textiles and consumer electronics, the most visible sectors where China's presence is felt. We next look to the impact of China on direct foreign investment flows. Here our innovation is to distinguish vertical and horizontal foreign direct investment (FDI) and to consider how they are affected by supply‐chain relationships. We then look more closely at factors influencing the articulation of these supply chains, the fragmentation of production, and the emerging international division of labor, focusing on two industries, electronics and autos, that exhibit very different responses. The results suggest that countries specializing in the production and export of components and raw materials feel positive effects from China's growth, while countries specializing in the production of consumer goods feel negative effects. Similarly, countries that compete with China for horizontal FDI find it more difficult to attract foreign investment as a result of that country's emergence, while countries that are potentially attractive destinations for vertical FDI find it easier to attract foreign investment as a result of trade links, especially in components and intermediates, that allow them to take advantage of supply chains involving their large and dynamically growing neighbor.     

Endogeneity of WTO in the gravity model： China and ASEAN

This paper studies the endogeneity of WTO dummy variable in the gravity model about the trade in the region of China and ASEAN. We first present a two-stage test approach for the endogeneity of WTO dummy, then transform the endogeneity problem to a simultaneous system about WTO and trade, and construct an MLE estimation approach to the simultaneous model. The estimate of the coefficient of WTO dummy is positive, as opposed to the negative sign in the exogeneity case. From the estimation of the endogenous model, WTO has creation fold effect and strong trade diversion effect on export model in the region.     

中国对虾出口贸易的影响因素及潜力分析——基于贸易引力模型

选取中国与主要对虾出口市场 2003-2017年的对虾贸易面板数据。运用引力模型对各影响因素进行回归分析。结果表明。出口市场的经济水平、中国的对虾产量以及 APEC成员对中国对虾的出口有着促进作用。中国与各出口市场的地理距离以及对虾疾病 EMS对对虾的出口有着较弱的阻碍作用。并根据引力模型测算了各出口市场的贸易潜力。其中美国等 12个国家和地区属于潜力再造型出口市场。加拿大属于潜力开拓型出口市场。日本、澳大利亚等15个国家和地区属于潜力巨大型出口市场。根据分析及测算结果分别从企业和政府的角度提出了促进对虾出口贸易发展的政策建议。     

Beyond Dutch disease

How does the deterioration of rule of law in Russia in recent years affect its ability to move away from an export pattern dominated by natural resources? We investigate this question using three datasets for Russia's bilateral trade relations for goods, services and investment at disaggregated level with its partner countries over the world. Our empirical analysis shows that the deterioration of the rule of law in Russia since 2003 has affected the long‐run trade performance of Russia in sophisticated and technology‐intensive manufactured goods, as well as its inward investments with advanced economies. It is precisely this type of trade that Russia should nurture to diversify away from hydrocarbons export dependence. Our statistical analysis also shows that Russia remains to a large extent an outlier within the multilateral trading system. It exports disproportionately less to partner countries which are or had become members of the WTO over our period of analysis. Russia's trade appears to have been negatively affected by the accession of these countries to the WTO. Russia itself finally acceded to the WTO in July 2012 amidst signs of a modest improvement of its rule‐of‐law indicators.     

Improving International Comparisons of Prices at Basic Heading Level: An Application to the Asia‐Pacific Region

The International Comparisons Program (ICP) run by the World Bank compares prices and real incomes across countries, and plays a pivotal role in the Penn World Table. Using a unique dataset consisting of over 600,000 price quotes from nine countries in the Asia‐Pacific region, we consider ways of improving the basic heading price indexes that form the building blocks of ICP. Current ICP methodology computes these price indexes using the country–product–dummy (CPD) method applied to the country average prices. We contrast this approach with: (i) a weighted version of CPD; (ii) CPD applied directly to the individual price quotes; and (iii) extended versions of CPD that include adjustments for unrepresentative products, urban–rural price differences, and different outlet‐types. Also considered are new CPD‐based methods for measuring urban–rural price differences, and the implications of our findings for the downward revision in China's GDP in ICP 2005.     

No time to look after the kids: The unintended consequences of export expansion on child health*

In this paper, we examine the effect of export expansion on the health of children under the age of 6 years in China. Using the CHNS survey, we exploit trade exposure variation among regions after China's entry into the WTO to construct a difference-in-differences and instrumental variable identification. We show that 1% increase in export expansion over GDP share exacerbates child' illness rates by 0.6%, and the effect is more pronounced for less educated parents. The increasing workloads and having less time to look after the child account for the increasing illness rates, especially for mothers.     

Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive

For many questions, it is crucial to know the extent of domestic value added (DVA) in a country's exports, but the computation is more complicated when processing trade is pervasive. We propose a method for computing domestic and foreign contents that allows for processing trade. By applying our framework to Chinese data, we estimate that the share of domestic content in its manufactured exports was about 50% before China's WTO membership, and has risen to nearly 60% since then. There are also interesting variations across sectors. Those sectors that are likely labeled as relatively sophisticated such as electronic devices have particularly low domestic content (about 30% or less).