农村剩余劳动力转移的一个不完全信息静态博弈模型与实证分析

工业化对于一个国家或地区经济腾飞的重要性,已经被西方发达国家的经验和道路所证实。在实现工业化的过程中,农村劳动力转移是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的重要课题。农村劳动力转移的动因和机制是十分复杂的,本文运用不完全信息静态博弈模型分析了农村劳动力转移的个人微观决策机理及其影响因素,并采用2003-2006年国家农村固定观察点的数据,建立Probit模型对纳什均衡的结果进行了实证分析。研究发现:农民工是理性的,他们是以收益最大化来决定自己的转移行为,只有用工企业的工资估价大于农民工的工资估价,雇佣才可能发生,农村劳动力才能实现顺利的转移。     

风险、不确定性与社会资本对促进农民工迁移的重要作用

农村劳动力迁移是指农业剩余劳动力向非农产业、农村剩余劳动力向城市及城镇的转移过程,涉及到产业与空间的双重转移。农业劳动力向非农产业转移是工业化过程的基本内容,农村劳动力向城市、城镇转移是城市化的主要特征,而工业化与城市化本身是相互联系、相互影响,是经济发展与结构变革同一过程的两个方面。劳动力转移的规模与速度,取决于农村地区发展的层次、农民劳动力的人力资本、城乡社会制度的衔接、工业化、城市化的发展等等。     

英国农村劳动力转移及对中国的启示

农村劳动力转移是世界各国从传统农业社会向工业化社会转变过程中共有的现象 ,本文分析影响巩固农村劳动力转移的各种因素和英国农村劳动力转移特点 ,并对英国农村劳动力流动进行历史评价 ,在此基础上探讨对我国农村劳动力转移的启示     

贵州省工业化、城镇化、农业现代化与农村劳动力转移研究

为了弄清贵州省工业化、城镇化和农业现代化对贵州省农村劳动力转移的影响程度,运用一元线性回归的方法,分别对贵州省工业化水平、城镇化水平和农业现代化水平与农村劳动力转移的相关性进行分析,发现贵州省工业化水平的提高对贵州省农村劳动力转移的吸纳作用不是很大,但是贵州省城镇化和农业现代化的发展却对贵州省农村劳动力的转移具有明显的拉动作用。     

英国工业化过程中农村劳动力产业间转移的次序及对我国的启示

农业劳动力向第二、第三产业转移是社会经济发展的必然结果,是实现农业社会向工业社会过渡的必要条件。文章以世界上最早实现工业化的英国为研究对象,从工业化过程中的不同阶段(工业化初期、工业化中期、工业化后期)考察英国农村劳动力在产业间转移的次序。这为处于不同工业化进程地区的中国农村劳动力在三次产业间的转移提供许多有益的启示和借鉴。     

劳动力转移的基本原则和对策

农业剩余劳动转移的基本原则应当考虑是否有利于统筹城乡发展和统筹经济社会发展,是否有利于工业化发展和全面现代化与城市化的实现。拓宽工业化发展的渠道,建立城乡二元工业化结构体系,规范农业剩余劳动力跨区域转移,构建劳动力转移的长效机制,充分发挥农村农业化对劳动力转移的促进作用,全面推进农业产业化,坚持农业产业化、农村工业化、农村城镇化三化联动,无疑都是解决农业剩余劳动力转移的最佳途径。     

中国二元经济与农村富余劳动力转移就业——理论分析与政策选择

农村劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移就业，是中国从乡村型农业社会向城市型工业社会这一历史转型期最为突出的特征，是工业化和现代化发展的必然趋势。影响中国农村富余劳动力转移有制度因素、供给因素和经济因素，针对中国目前二元经济的特殊性，应强化对农村劳动力转移就业的组织推动工作，加快城镇化、农村工业化进程，健全农村劳动力培养培训机制，建立良好的劳务输出服务体制等，以引导农村富余劳动力平稳有序转移，促进城乡经济社会协调发展。     

突破障碍,在发展中实现农村富余劳动力转移就业

农村富余劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移．是工业化和现代化的必然趋势。中国正经受着农村富余劳动力转移的压力。发展才是解决这一问题的关键，本文从破除农村劳动力转移的障碍入手．提出了在发展中实现富务劳动力转移就业的策略。     

当前农村劳动力转移就业现状、问题及对策

农村富余劳动力向非农产业转移,是工业化和现代化的必然趋势。促进农村劳动力转移就业,有利于整个社会的发展。为从体制上根本解决农村劳动力无序流动的状况,建议设置管理全国农村劳动力转移就业工作的专门机构,以适应农村劳动力转移就业工作新形势的迫切要求,彻底改变农村劳动力转移就业工作多头管理、分散负责的局面,尽快将农村劳动力转移就业工作纳入统一、规范、高效的管理轨道。介绍了当前农村劳动力转移就业的基本情况,分析了农村劳动力转移就业中存在的问题,提出了相应的政策对策建议。     

劳动力转移:当前农村发展最具挑战性的问题

我国农村已发展到劳动力转移对其发展具有决定意义的新阶段。劳动力转移必须立足农村和农业,重点抓好农业结构调整、农业产业化、农村工业化、农村城市化和劳务输出。通过观念更新、信息服务、智力支持和政策引导来改善农村劳动力转移的条件。     

新农村建设背景下农村剩余劳动力转移研究——以河北省为例

社会主义新农村建设背景下农村劳动力的转移问题是关系到我国城乡统筹协调发展,关系到中国工业化和城镇化进程.经研究得出,目前河北省农村劳动力转移带来积极经济效应的同时,也带来了一些复杂的社会问题,尤其是弱化了新农村建设的主体.中央和地方政府应该制定积极的惠农政策,进一步推进农业生产的产业化、规模化,加快农村的新型工业化的步伐,引导农民工回乡创业,实现新农村建设和城市化进程的均衡发展.     

农产品价格上涨的经济学分析——以陕西省为例

农业的深层危机来源于农民和土地。工业化、城市化的发展使农村大量耕地被占用;伴随农村劳动力向城市的转移,农业劳动力老龄化、文化程度低、以女性为主的特点导致农业生产技术利用率低,单位面积产量低;土地质量的下降又进一步制约着农产品产量增长。然而,在农产品市场供给降低的同时,人口消费、饲料消耗、工业用粮的增长却使消费需求不断增加。农产品供给与需求的失衡是农产品价格不断上涨的根本原因。     

Immigration as industrial strategy in American meatpacking

Abstract

This paper examines the connections linking recent changes in Latino migration, the American meatpacking industry, and American immigration policy. As the meatpacking industry has vertically integrated and shifted to rural non-union areas throughout the South, it has grown increasingly dependent on short-term low-skilled employees. This process can be understood as the industrialization of meatpacking, where profitability depends on continuous high-throughput production. To succeed, the industrialization of meatpacking requires a large pool of easily replaceable labor that has no control over the pace work on of the shop floor. At the same time, as immigrants have been drawn to these new company towns, American immigration policy has turned increasingly towards border enforcement. We argue that the presence of illegal immigrants within the factories reduces the bargaining power of shop workers and increases employer control. Most studies of immigration have focused on the supply of migrant labor, the immigrants attracted to higher paying jobs. We argue that valuable insight is gained by looking at the manufacturers' demand for cheap labor and the implementation of an industrial strategy that requires it.     

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation: a village-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new socialist countryside. Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from[bur villages in northwest GuangxL China, Daxin Lixin, Longhe and Yongchang. We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. A bout 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one fam- ily member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middte school and higher More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high (80%). And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income significantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some "compulsory course" in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in poverty al-leviation. This is the first step in the construction of the new socialist countryside.     

城市化进程中农村劳动力迁移意愿影响因素分析——基于吉林省松原市葛平村的实地调研

农村劳动力迁移是农村城市化的推动力量之一,研究其影响因素有助于加速农村城市化进程。文章以吉林省松原市葛平村为例,运用因子分析法对葛平村农村劳动力迁移意愿进行分析,找出了影响当地农村劳动力做出迁移意愿的主要因素,即对城市生活的预期是影响农村劳动力迁移意愿的主要因素。基于分析结果,提出政府可以在完善劳动力就业市场、解决农村社保问题以及改革农村迁移劳动力进城住房制度等方面做出努力,从而促使更多的农村劳动力迁移,推动农村城镇化进程。     

农村劳动力转移影响因素分析:29个省市的经验数据

在分析和评价传统理论和已有文献的基础上,突破单一的城乡收入差距影响农村劳动力转移的传统思维,构建出农村劳动力转移不仅受迁移地非农收入的实际效用因素的影响,受迁移成本变动因素影响的理论模型。根据全国29个省市1995-2006年的面板数据,经过单位根检验和协整关系检验,利用回归模型,估计分析了非农收入的实际效用因素和非农收入成本因素对农村劳动力转移的影响度。城乡收入差距、非农产业生产总值比率与农村劳动力转移呈正相关,城乡消费支出比率、城镇失业率分别作为农村劳动力转移的直接价格成本和就业风险成本与农村劳动力转移呈负相关关系。要进一步促进我国农村劳动力向城镇的合理转移,必须从两个方面着手:一是提高非农收入的实际效用,二是降低非农收入的成本率。     

论中国21世纪农业产业化中的剩余劳动力转移

中国 2 1世纪农业剩余劳动力转移 ,应该置之于农业产业化发展过程、运行框架中统筹安排、疏导、调节。作者认为 ,由于农业产业化能够提高劳动生产率和土地生产率 ,优化、提升农村经济结构 ,促进农业逐步形成合理规模 ,改善农业生产布局 ,能够使农业时序效益不断提高 ,所以 ,农业总体经济效益将大幅度增长 ,这将有力推动农村向城镇化方向发展。中国农村城镇化的结果是产生巨大的聚集效应 ,第二、第三产业迅速发展 ,从而吸收大量农村剩余劳动力。中国 2 1世纪农村剩余劳动力转移的历史任务 ,将在农业产业化———农村城镇化的浪潮中成功完成     

基于产业发展背景下的农村就业现状调查——以新疆伊宁县为例

产业集聚和农村就业是产业发展和人口集聚的双载体,是加快工业化、城乡一体化最基础、最核心的环节,是经济快速发展的新的增长极。在产业集聚的成长和发展过程中,集聚企业会有大量用工需求,这不仅给城镇人口提供了就业机会,加快了城镇化的步伐,同时也吸纳了大量农村人口,促进了农村劳动力有效转移。通过实际调研,在产业发展的背景下,分析伊宁县农村劳动力转移的现状及特点,并对该县农村劳动力转移的经验和做法进行了研究,使其能为其他县域农村劳动力转移提供借鉴。     

A general equilibrium analysis of production subsidy in a Harris-Todaro developing economy: an application to India

Since 1950s India has advocated import substituting industrialization policies to promote its manufacturing sector. The end result was creation of a dual economy: highly favored manufacturing sector with high and rigid wages and neglected agricultural sector with low wages and poverty. Because of the higher wages in the manufacturing sector, the rural laborers migrate to the urban sector, a typical characteristic of the Harris-Todaro developing economy. Realizing this crisis, the Indian government recently initiated policies to boost agricultural production to curb the labor migration and improve the welfare of the rural population. In this study, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for India by incorporating Harris-Todaro economic characteristics of unemployment, labor migration, farm dependant population, and labor-intensive agriculture. We use the model to analyze the effects of agricultural production subsidy policies on employment, factor price, output price, output levels, and welfare in agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Our findings show that agricultural production subsidy increases agricultural production, reduces unemployment, raises the wage rate in the agriculture sector, augments the consumption among the rural and urban households, and increases the rental rate for capital in agricultural sector.