生态赤字税：绿色发展与税制改革*

本文在量化生态占用并评估生态价值基础上,提出运用税收实现超额生态占用价值补偿的税收方案,也称生态赤字税。根据税制生态化的改革思路,本文运用CGE模型分析了征收生态赤字税和降低所得税的政策效应。本文研究发现：(1)在各税收方案中,生态赤字减少,就业增加,支持双重红利假说,全行业中间投入减少相对总产出减少更大,名义GDP保持增长;(2)实际GDP在生态赤字税基础上仅减少企业所得税的方案中下降,同时减少个人所得税则能实现增长,此时减税额低于生态赤字税收入;(3)在开征生态赤字税同时,降低个人所得税在保持经济增长方面较好,降低企业所得税在减少生态赤字方面较好,但降低企业所得税所减少的生态赤字价值低于降低个人所得税时劳动和资本增加值的提高。本文建议在完善生态占用核算基础上开征生态赤字税,并减轻所得税,促进经济增长由资源环境消耗转向劳动和资本投入的绿色发展。     

长三角地区碳排放影响因素分析——基于IPAT改进模型

随着经济发展、人口与能源消耗的增长,以及不合理的能源结构,导致了长三角地区碳排放的不断增加。文章以人口增长率、GDP增长率、能源消耗量、能源技术进步率、能源结构优化系数变动率为影响因素在对IPAT模型进行改进的基础上,对2006-2011年间长三角地区碳排放的影响因素进行定量分析。主要结论是长三角地区能源技术进步率与能源结构优化的减排作用还不能抵消人口与GDP的快速增长的影响,受能源结构优化系数变动比率逐步增加的影响,碳排放量受人口增长率与GDP增长率的影响呈逐年减小趋势,能源技术进步率与能源结构优化的减排作用日趋显著。     

The material basis of the global economy: Worldwide patterns of natural resource extraction and their implications for sustainable resource use policies

Material flow accounting and analysis (MFA) has been established as an influential framework for quantifying the use of natural resources by modern societies. So far, however, no reference data for overall scale and trends of global extraction of natural resources and their distribution between different world regions has been available. This paper presents the first comprehensive quantification of the material basis of the global economy, i.e. used domestic extraction in a time series from 1980 to 2002. We analyse time trends for major material groups (fossil fuels, metals, industrial and construction minerals, and biomass) disaggregated into seven world regions. This allows for (a) an illustration of the global economy's physical growth driven by worldwide processes of economic integration over the past decades, and (b) an indication of the worldwide distribution of environmental pressures associated with material extraction. The results show that annual resource consumption of the world economy increased by about one third between 1980 and 2002. This indicates that scale effects due to economic growth more than compensated for other effects, such as the relative increase of the service sectors' contribution to GDP (structural effect) and the use of new production technologies with higher material and energy efficiency (technology effect). The observed growth of natural resource extraction is unevenly distributed over the main material categories, with metals showing the highest growth rate. The regional analysis shows the increasing importance of Asia and Latin America in global resource extraction. On the global level, material intensity, i.e. resource extraction per unit of GDP, decreased by about 25%, indicating relative decoupling of resource extraction from economic growth. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for a more sustainable use of natural resources.     

Net primary production and gross domestic product in China derived from satellite imagery

Since the 1980s Chinese economic reform has greatly accelerated its economic growth while in contrast China's environment is increasingly degraded. The Chinese government has recognized that environmental protection and sustainable economic development can promote mutual and sustainable co-development of the economy and the environment as a basic national principle. This paper examines the interactions between economic development and environmental change in China that were compared and analyzed for the years 1996 and 2000. Net primary production (NPP) was selected as a proxy evaluator of ecosystems and gross domestic product (GDP) was chosen as a proxy evaluator of economic development. An NPP change map was produced with Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) summed annual NPP imagery products. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime imagery was used to produce a Chinese GDP change map. An integrated map was produced to exhibit the combined changes of NPP and GDP. This map showed that in the regions with increased GDP, NPP decreased but the regions with no GDP change were smaller in area for NPP increase while larger in area for NPP decrease. The changing pattern of NPP varied with the developing level of GDP at province level. A province's development of GDP is controlled by its accessibility to natural resources. Interactions between NPP and GDP are greatly affected by factors of spatial location aside from human factors and natural systems' characteristics.     

Economic Growth Theory and Natural Resource Constraints: A Stocktake and Critical Assessment

Society is facing significant environmental challenges. The effects of climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental degradation are being increasingly felt worldwide. In recent years, researchers have attempted to adapt neoclassical and endogenous growth theory to account for constraints imposed by scarce natural resources. In this article, we review where, and how, researchers tend to incorporate natural resources and natural capital into growth theory. We then outline areas and questions that remain unanswered, including how novel impact investing and the eroding trade-off between GDP and the environment affect growth theory.     

结构变化、效率改进与能源需求预测——以中国电力行业为例

本文利用宏观经济学的方法提出一个长期电力需求模型以分析影响中国电力需求的主要因素。如预期的一样 ,当各种因素受市场力量的进一步约束时 ,影响需求的各项变量之间的关系在中国经济改革以后更加稳定也更为显著。一个误差修正模型为预测中国电力总需求的短期波动提供了适合的框架。 1 978年经济改革以后 ,需求的GDP弹性估计为 0 .8左右 ,低于改革前 (1 978年以前 )。结果表明 ,虽然GDP仍是影响电力需求的最重要因素 ,但电力需求与中国的结构变化及效率改进是负相关的。这意味着对于一个快速增长的经济来说 ,GDP的高速增长并不总是伴随着高的电力需求 ,并解释了为什么 1 998年经济增长率为 7 8% ,但电力消费却只增长了 2 8%。     

PESER系统城市可持续发展能力环境影响评价经济运行模型

在传统的城市宏观经济运行过程模型的基础上,将世界银行所提出的真实储蓄理论经修正,引入到城市经济运行模式中,提出了(Population,Economy,Society,Environment,Resources,PESER)人口、经济、社会、环境及资源PESER系统城市可持续发展能力环境影响评价经济运行模型,并用此模型分析了西安市的可持续发展能力。     

2000—2005年我国省际经济增长差异及其因素分解

以经合组织(OECD)分析区域经济增长的方法为基础,测算了2000-2005年中国大陆31个省级行政单位GDP的变化,并分解为资本效率、人均资本、专业化、就业率、活跃人口等几因子.比较了各省区经济增长的差异及原因,并且进行了归类.结果显示,对所有省份而言,人均资本的增加是CDP增长的最重要推动因素,资本效率下降是重要的障碍;专业化具有明显的省际差异;就业率、活跃人口在多数省份为正面的影响,然而影响较小.     

Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities

"In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources."     

基于主要国家截面数据的虚拟水进口影响因素实证分析

基于39个主要国家的截面数据,选取反映资源、经济、制度、人口四个因素的11个变量,采用逐步回归分析方法对影响虚拟水进口量的因素进行实证分析。回归结果表明,国际储备、人均国内生产总值、耕地面积、粮食单产4个变量对虚拟水进口量具有显著影响且均具有正向效应。     

杭州市绿色GDP核算指标体系及应用研究

根据国内外的理论与实践经验,以及杭州市的具体情况,本文选取了资源和环境账户的典型重要因子,构建了杭州市绿色GDP环境扣减指标体系,包括自然资源损耗帐、环境污染帐、实际环境支出帐等3个大类的环境扣减指标,共计11个次级指标,18个三级指标。利用国内外常用的核算方法,以及2005～2008年的相关数据,核算了杭州市绿色GDP。核算结果表明,2005～2008年杭州市环境损失占GDP的比重在下降,即绿色GDP占GDP的比重在上升,到2008年环境损失绝对值也开始出现下降。应该说杭州市环境建设已经取得了一定成效。由于杭州市国民经济一直处于快速增长状态,因此也说明环境保护与经济增长可以实现共赢。但矿产品损耗、环境污染损失、环保支出、排污费和超标排污费、处罚等都处于上升阶段,因此杭州市环境建设还应继续加强。针对本文的研究,最后提出了几点政策建议。     

我国出口依存度与经济风险承受能力的非匹配性

近两年,受国际经济形势的影响,我国GDP增长速度、价格水平持续出现较大幅度的下降,同时失业率大幅度上升,这与我国长期以来的"低消费、高投资、高出口"的增长模式有关.2007年以前,出口高速增长虽然对我国的经济增长做出了一定贡献,但过高的出口依存度也给我国经济带来巨大的贸易摩擦风险、产业风险、就业与收入风险、经济安全风险.这些风险无论是从供求总量角度,或是从物价水平角度,还是从就业角度来看,都超出了我国经济的承受能力.我国出口依存度与经济风险承受能力的非匹配性是我国近两年经济下滑的主要原因.     

Resources,population, environment: An oversupply of false bad news

False bad news about population growth, natural resources, and the environment is published widely in the face of contradictory evidence. For example, the world supply of arable land has actually been increasing, the scarcity of natural resources including food and energy has been decreasing, and basic measures of U.S. environmental quality show positive trends. The aggregate data show no long-run negative effect of population growth upon the standard of living. Models that embody forces omitted in the past, especially the influence of population size upon productivity increase, suggest a long-run positive effect of additional people.     

我国城市用地扩张的驱动力分析

文章用较为详实的资料，对中国近15年城市土地扩张的基本态势及其3个影响因子，即人口、经济增长和城市环境改善的内在作用机制进行了分析。近15年来，中国城市建成区土地面积年均扩张速度为850km^2。单因子回归分析表明，城市用地(城市建成区)扩张与城市人口和GDP皆呈高度正相关关系；但通过偏相关分析发现，GDP增长更能解释城市用地的扩张，经济增长是城市用地扩展最重要、最根本的驱动因素。随着经济发展和收入的增加，人们对城市居住环境的要求提高，这也将刺激城市对土地的需求。     

ACCOUNTING FOR EXHAUSTIBLE RESOURCES IN THE CANADIAN SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: FLOWS, STOCKS AND PRODUCTIVITY MEASURES

The paper shows that the Canadian System of National Accounts includes exhaustible resources but treats them as if they were produced goods. Thus, the claim that conventional accounts ignore the contribution of exhaustible natural resources is partly true. To fully account for exhaustible resources, we present an alternative national accounting framework that incorporates natural resource flows and stocks. The framework modifies the measure of the net domestic product by a factor that differs from the Hartwick-Solow-Weitzman rule and leads to different estimates of GDP, national wealth, and productivity growth. An application to the Canadian oil and gas industry shows order-of-magnitude effects.     

Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh

In a poor, overly populated country such as Bangladesh, some believe that a high rate of population growth is a cause of poverty which impedes economic development. Population growth would therefore be exogenous to economic development. However, others believe that rapid population growth is a consequence rather than a cause of poverty. Population growth is therefore endogenous to economic development. Findings are presented from an investigation of whether population growth has been exogenous or endogenous with respect to Bangladesh's development process during the past 3 decades. The increase in per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a measure of development. Data on population, real GDP per capita, and real investment share of GDP are drawn from the Penn World Table prepared by Summers and Heston in 1991. The data are annual and cover the period 1959-90. Analysis of the data indicate that population growth is endogenous to Bangladesh's development process. These findings are reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.     

资源富集地区产业结构与就业关系研究:以内蒙古为例

资源富集地区就业弹性低于全国。向量误差修正模型显示,内蒙古GDP增长和固定资产投资增加都带动了就业,但带动作用越来越弱。与内蒙古整体状况相似,第二产业投资和GDP增长加速度每提高1%,就业加速度就分别提高、降低0.265%和0.464%。第一产业产出的就业弹性和投资弹性分别为0.253和-0.044。第三产业产出的就业弹性和投资弹性分别为0.799和-0.434。     

生态赤字税：理论与实证研究框架

文章基于生态足迹核算方法和生态服务价值理论所确定的价格体系,在核算生态赤字及其价值并提出其价值补偿的环境税方案的基础上,将生态占用作为一种要素投入,构建绿色社会核算矩阵和环境税 CGE 模型,通过数值模拟比较分析了在5%、10%和30%的补偿强度下税收方案的环境效应、就业效应、增长效应、分配效应和贸易效应。模拟结果表明：(1)生态赤字税方案具有减少生态占用和增加就业的双重红利效应;(2)各部门的总产出和中间投入总体上下降,但名义 GDP 增长,绿色 GDP 增幅更大,而实际 GDP 则下降,表明税收政策会造成价格指数一定程度的上升;(3)政府税收收入因生态赤字补偿额度较大而增长较快,且增速高于劳动和资本要素报酬的增长,但居民收入和企业收入比重略有下降。基于我国资源与环境等税收在总税收中的比重,以及 OECD 国家的税制结构和变化趋势,文章最后建议生态赤字税的补偿性税率应低于5%。     

区域适度人口研究方法的应用——以辽宁沿海经济带为例

未来辽宁沿海经济带人口增长及人力资源的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的大小。利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,在获取辽宁沿海经济带GDP、住房面积等资源总量的基础上,综合了经济、资源环境、社会公共功能三方面约束条件,对辽宁沿海经济带在两种标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析。     

税收努力、征税机构与税收增长之谜

本文运用省级面板数据研究了中国税收收入高速增长的影响因素,主要考察了经济基本面和征税努力水平对于税收收入的影响。我们利用成对样本(paired sampling)的数据结构,使用工具变量处理了税收努力度量误差带来的内生性问题,估计了国税和地税机构的征税努力对于税收增长的不同影响。这种模型设定的好处是既考虑到一个地区的国税和地税面对着同样的经济基本面,同时又可以识别两个机构征税努力的增收效应所存在的差异。我们发现,GDP增长对于税收的增长有接近45%的解释力,征管努力对税收收入也有重要的贡献,地税局税收努力水平的边际效应要高于国税局的边际效应。