International support of climate change policies in developing countries: Strategic, moral and fairness aspects

International transfers in climate policy channeled from the industrialized to the developing world either support the mitigation of climate change or the adaptation to global warming. From a purely allocative point of view, transfers supporting mitigation tend to be Pareto-improving whereas this is not very likely in the case of adaptation support. We illustrate this by regarding transfer schemes currently applied under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto framework.However, if we enrich the analysis by integrating distributional aspects, we find that international adaptation funding may help both the developing and developed world. Interestingly this is not due to altruistic incentives, but due to follow-up effects on international negotiations on climate change mitigation. We argue that the lack of fairness perceived by developing countries in the international climate policy arena can be reduced by the support of adaptation in these countries. As we show - taking into account different fairness concepts - this might raise the prospects of success in international negotiations on climate change. Yet, we find that the influence of transfers may induce different fairness effects on climate change mitigation negotiations to run counter.We discuss whether current transfer schemes under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto framework adequately serve the distributive and allocative objectives pursued in international climate policy.     

低碳农业发展核心目标:减缓和适应气候变化

减缓和适应是人类应对气候变化行动中两种相辅相成的措施。中国农业在应对气候变化中,减缓和适应同等重要:一方面,农业在减缓气候变化中具有独特的作用;另一方面,农业适应气候变化比减缓气候变化更为现实的迫切。积极发展低碳现代农业实现减排增汇,中国农业生态系统可以作为一种非常重要的固碳增汇措施,纳入全球CO2减排措施中去。中国低碳农业在减缓和适应气候变化中具有巨大潜力。     

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

We explore the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation and distributional preferences, by which we mean individuals’ opinions about who should be responsible for climate change prevention and whether the share of climate change impacts borne by the poor is a cause for concern. We use 1,770 responses to an online stated preference survey. The domestic costs in our survey’s policy choice scenarios are expressed as a set of randomized shares across four different payment vehicles, and the international cost shares are randomized across four groups of countries. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions of the likely regressivity of climate change impacts under a policy of business-as-usual. WTP is higher when larger cost shares are borne by parties deemed to bear a greater responsibility for mitigation, and when respondents believe (and care) that the impacts of climate change may be borne disproportionately by the world’s poor. That WTP for an environmental policy depends on the distributional consequences of the policy is an unsettling result: efficiency assessments are typically assumed to be separate from equity considerations in most benefit-cost analyses.     

Identification of national priority areas for adaptation to climate change in China

The problem of global warming has been identified as the first in the list of the top ten environmental problems in the world. As climate change will seriously affect the social and natural world that people live in, so it may lay serious repercussions on economic progress, social improvement, and sustainable development. International bodies everywhere and many of the countries＇ governments are responding urgently to this call In recent years, climate change has affected different regions in China in different ways. In its national agenda, the Chinese government should address the problem of climate change and its negative impact on socio-economic development. In this endeavor the nation should introduce policies which will help its people and economy to adapt to these effects and changes. Priority-fields of adaptation to climate change are the sensitive areas or departments which are more vulnerable to the negative influences of climate change. The negative impacts of climate change in some parts of China are considered to be very serious indeed as they affect the whole economy and community. As a result, priority should be given to these more affected regions for the limited state financing. This paper defines adaptation and discusses the basic principles and programs in the identi.fication of national priority areas where adaptation should be exercised. Based on the past studies, four priority areas in China are identified, namely, disaster prevention and mitigation, water resources, agriculture, and ecosystem. An analysis on the identification procedures, and the reasons and tasks involved are given for each.     

辽东湾、渤海湾、莱州湾三湾生态系统服务价值评估

海洋生态系统服务价值对海洋资源开发和海洋综合管理具有重要的意义。研究应用联合国千年生态系统评估框架,构建了食品生产、原料生产、基因资源、氧气生产和气候调节、废弃物处理、生物控制、休闲娱乐、科研文化、初级生产以及物种多样性维持等10项服务价值的评估方法。对辽东湾、渤海湾和莱州湾进行了上述10项生态系统服务价值的评估,结果表明,三个海湾服务功能的总价值量为1 485.11×108元,单位面积价值为4.52元/(m2 a)。其中,辽东湾价值量最大,占三个海湾总价值量的56.7%,其次是莱州湾,占总价值量的23.3%,渤海湾最小,占总价值量的20%。各项服务中,食品生产的价值量最大,占总价值量的71.0%。食品生产、氧气生产和气候调节、初级生产这三项服务价值之间表现出显著相关性,主要是由于三项服务有着共同的初级生产者。研究结果可为相关管理部门制定生态补偿政策提供理论依据。     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.     

Study on Medium- and Long-Term Fiscal Policies to Cope with Climate Change under the “Dual Carbon” Goals

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality constitute an extensive, profound and systemic economic and social change. It is worthwhile to explore how fiscal policy, as a key institutional arrangement in the public policy system to cope with climate change, can play a fundamental and pillar role. Based on literatures, theories and empirical materials, this paper systematically explores the relationship between climate change and public finance. The fiscal impact of climate change will eventually be reflected in fiscal behavior, fiscal costs and fiscal relations, and the fiscal system has the adaptability of an “automatic stabilizer” and the proactiveness to enable the Discretionary Approaches function when facing climate change impacts. This implies such a governance logic of fiscal policy that is systematic, forward-looking and flexible in addressing climate change. In the future, it is necessary to further incorporate climate change or related environmental factors into the fiscal policy framework, target the two key aspects of mitigation and adaptation, and carry out a holistic, systematic and forward-looking reform of the existing fiscal expenditure policy, fiscal revenue policy, fiscal investment and financing policy, government budget system, government procurement policy and ecological compensation policy. While highlighting the “governance” function of fiscal policy in addressing climate change, Chinese government needs to strengthen the coordination and collaboration between fiscal policy tools and other public policies, and magnify the governance effectiveness of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change. This paper helps understand the positioning, role and influence of fiscal policy in the process of addressing climate change, provides a basis for better playing the fundamental and underpinning role of the modern fiscal system in the governance of ecological civilization, and presents an analytical framework for building a theoretical system of ecological fiscal governance.     

中国适应气候变化的科技政策变迁与展望

适应气候变化的科技政策是该领域科技活动的重要保障。以2007—2020年期间212份适应气候变化的中央科技政策文件作为分析样本,采用共词和聚类方法,分析不同时期适应性科技政策主题聚焦点演进和变化。研究结果显示,“技术研发”“技术成果应用推广”“资金保障”“监测应急能力发展规划”“水利科技发展支持”等主题发生了明显的政策逻辑变迁。整体来看,适应性科技政策呈现密切结合国家气候适应战略演进而深化发展的特点,未来中国适应气候变化的科技政策应进一步引导适应技术科研方向,助力气候适应科技成果转化,提供财政、信息等资源支持。     

Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy

Economic evaluation of climate policy traditionally treats uncertainty by appealing to expected utility theory. Yet our knowledge of the impacts of climate policy may not be of sufficient quality to be described by unique probabilistic beliefs. In such circumstances, it has been argued that the axioms of expected utility theory may not be the correct standard of rationality. By contrast, several axiomatic frameworks have recently been proposed that account for ambiguous knowledge. In this paper, we apply static and dynamic versions of a smooth ambiguity model to climate mitigation policy. We obtain a general result on the comparative statics of optimal abatement and ambiguity aversion, and then extend our analysis to a more realistic, dynamic setting, where we introduce scientific ambiguity into the well-known DICE model of the climate-economy system. For policy-relevant exogenous mitigation policies, we show that the value of emissions abatement increases as ambiguity aversion increases, and that this ‘ambiguity premium’ can in some plausible cases be very large. In these cases the effect of ambiguity aversion on welfare is comparable to that of other much studied welfare parameters. Thus ambiguity aversion may be an important neglected aspect of climate change economics, and seems likely to provide another argument for strong abatement policy.     

Geographically explicit global modeling of land-use change, carbon sequestration, and biomass supply

This study aims to determine whether carbon sequestration policies could present a significant contribution to the global portfolio of climate change mitigation options. The objective is to model the effects of policies designed to induce landowners to change land use and management patterns with a view to sequester carbon or to reduce deforestation. The approach uses the spatially explicit Dynamic Integrated Model of Forestry and Alternative Land Use (DIMA) to quantify the economic potential of global forests. The model chooses which of the land-use processes (afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, or conservation and management options) would be applied in a specific location, based on land prices, cost of forest production and harvesting, site productivity, population density, and estimates of economic growth. The approach is relevant in that it (1) couples a revised and updated version of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios with the dynamic development of climate policy implications through integration with the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE); (2) is spatially explicit on a 0.5° grid; and (3) is constrained by guaranteeing food security and land for urban development. As outputs, DIMA produces 100-year forecasts of land-use change, carbon sequestration, impacts of carbon incentives (e.g., avoided deforestation), biomass for bioenergy, and climate policy impacts. The modeling results indicate that carbon sequestration policies could contribute to a significant part of the global portfolio of efficient climate mitigation policies, dependent upon carbon prices.     

Popular Support for Climate Change Mitigation: Evidence from a General Population Mail Survey

Using a sample of 1,651 US households, we explore some determinants of willingness to pay (WTP) for climate change mitigation programs. Our mail survey had a relatively low response rate, so we first use several additional data sources to build a detailed sample selection model. This model uses features of the survey instrument, measures of geographic vulnerability to climate change, seasonality, the political mix in the county, attributes of the address or addressee, and a set of factor scores from an extensive factor analysis of all census tracts in the US. We estimate this model jointly with a model to explain climate policy preferences as a function of the domestic and international distribution of policy costs as well as the climate change impacts that each respondent believes will occur under a policy of business-as-usual. Despite statistically significant patterns of nonresponse, selectivity effects are minimal in this case. WTP for climate change mitigation is greater when the domestic incidence of mitigation costs is borne mostly through higher energy taxes. It is also greater when costs are understood to be shared internationally with other groups of countries, rather than being borne mostly by a country group including the US. People are generally more willing to pay for climate change mitigation if they believe that the harm caused by climate change impacts will be substantial, rather than just moderate. The assistance of former UCLA undergraduate students Ivka Adam, Tashi Ghale, Michelle Gogolewski, Vilija Gulbinas, and Lindy Olsson was essential to survey development and administration. This paper is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 9818875 to UCLA, with additional support from the Raymond F. Mikesell Foundation at the University of Oregon. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of either the National Science Foundation or ICF International.     

Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements: Effects of mitigation, 1990–2080

Potential changes in global and regional agricultural water demand for irrigation were investigated within a new socio-economic scenario, A2r, developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with and without climate change, with and without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Water deficits of crops were developed with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)–IIASA Agro-ecological Zone model, based on daily water balances at 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude and then aggregated to regions and the globe. Future regional and global irrigation water requirements were computed as a function of both projected irrigated land and climate change and simulations were performed from 1990 to 2080. Future trends for extents of irrigated land, irrigation water use, and withdrawals were computed, with specific attention given to the implications of climate change mitigation. Renewable water-resource availability was estimated under current and future climate conditions. Results suggest that mitigation of climate change may have significant positive effects compared with unmitigated climate change. Specifically, mitigation reduced the impacts of climate change on agricultural water requirements by about 40%, or 125–160 billion m³ (Gm³) compared with unmitigated climate. Simple estimates of future changes in irrigation efficiency and water costs suggest that by 2080 mitigation may translate into annual cost reductions of about 10 billion US$.     

气候变化伦理研究评述

气候变化日益成为国际社会的一个热门话题。关于对气候变化问题的国际辩论经历了一个从科学、经济学和政治学争论到伦理争论的历程。气候变化是一个典型的＂全球伦理问题＂,气候变化伦理问题的关键是利益冲突。要解决＂缓解＂和＂适应＂气候变化、碳排量分配的合理性、发展中国家的发展空间及其补偿等一系列问题,必须要对气候公正原则、共同而有区别的责任等问题获得共识。     

Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change： establishment and application for implementation matrix

In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change, adaptation measures can be categorized as two groups：facilitation and implementation. Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity, while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards, or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors. This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change, through four different ways how adaptation can influencc the relevant elements of climate change. reducing the exposure, reducing the sensitivity, alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors, and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change, through application studies on the selected sub-systems, intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent, and put forward some new measures under the guidance of this matrix, which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.     

A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk

Is there a role for investments in climate change mitigation despite low expected return? We use a model of intertemporal expected utility maximisation to analyse this question. Similar to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) the rate of return depends on the correlation of risk between the return on investments in climate change mitigation and the market portfolio, but in contrast to the classical CAPM we admit the fact that economic and environmental systems are jointly determined, implying that environmental risk is endogenous. Therefore, investments in climate change mitigation may reduce risk via self-protection and self-insurance. If risk reduction is accounted for in cost–benefit evaluations, climate investments may be justified despite low expected return. These aspects of climate investments are not, however, communicated via standard cost–benefit analyses of climate policy. Optimal climate policy may therefore be more ambitious than previously considered.     

Adaptation and Mitigation in Long-term Climate Policy

The paper analytically explores the optimal allocation of investments into mitigation and environmental adaptation against climate change damages at a macroeconomic level. The economic-environmental model is formulated as a social planner problem where adaptation and abatement investments are separate decision variables. The existence of a unique steady state is proven. A comparative static analysis of optimal investments leads to essential implications for associated long-term environmental policies. It is shown that the optimal policy mix between adaptation and mitigation is lower for countries with higher economic efficiency for all applicable parameter ranges. Data calibration and numerical simulations are provided to estimate practical validity of theoretical outcomes.     

Royal Dutch/Shell

Climate change will affect security of individuals and populations as well as the security of states. The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts. I argue that climate security has been framed in public and policy debate over climate change such that climate change impacts are a threat to nation states in terms of their interests, their economies and their borders. This framing crowds out, subverts and constrains framing in terms of human-well being. I suggest that human security provides a broader and more encompassing notion of climate security than that focussed on security of states. Here, climate security focuses on the idea of freedom from harm and fear of individuals and communities and the capability to adapt to any imposed harm. From that human security perspective, the central analytical issues become those of vulnerability, adaptation and justice.     

Forest management for timber and carbon sequestration in the presence of climate change: The case of Pinus Sylvestris

Climatic changes will affect the dynamics of a forest ecosystem. Consequently, carbon sequestration costs can only be estimated correctly if changes in climatic conditions are considered. This article determines the changes in mitigation costs of an optimal forest management regime in the presence of climatic changes and varying prices, and takes account of substitution processes between timber production and carbon sequestration at the stand level. The study demonstrates that in the presence of climate change the sequestration costs per ton of carbon increase with higher amounts of carbon sequestered per hectare. This finding can be used to identify a threshold for the amount of sequestered carbon per hectare below which the costs of carbon sequestration are hardly influenced by climate change.     

Population–Environment Interactions: European Migration, Population Composition and Climate Change

The paper addresses the collision of two twenty-first Century transitions—the unprecedented change in the size, composition, density and distribution of the human population, and rapid change in the earth’s natural environment, in part a response to the above. It argues that it is important to consider these aspects of population change and environment together in order to understand the reality of any mitigation that may be made. Following a review of research which is beginning to address not only the environmental impact of population growth, but also of changes in density, distribution and composition, the paper turns to explore the interaction of population composition and density with environmental change through addressing interactions between migration, ageing populations and climate change. It considers a key population question facing the EU, that of the demographic deficit, and addresses how the mitigating role of migration will be affected by future climate change. It thus considers whether migration is a valid policy approach in the context of Europe’s demographic deficit and the impact of climate change on this relationship.     

Economic Analysis for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment: Synthesis and Scenario Valuation of Changes in Ecosystem Services

We combine natural science modelling and valuation techniques to present economic analyses of a variety of land use change scenarios generated for the UK National Ecosystem Assessment. Specifically, the agricultural, greenhouse gas, recreational and urban greenspace impacts of the envisioned land use changes are valued. Particular attention is given to the incorporation of spatial variation in the natural environment and to addressing issues such as biodiversity impacts where reliable values are not available. Results show that the incorporation of ecosystem services and their values within analyses can substantially change decisions.