人口政策调整的一般均衡分析

随着我国人口老龄化日益严重,学界和公众关于调整"一胎"生育管制政策的呼声日高。那么不同的人口政策到底会对中国经济产生多大的影响?按户主年龄和家庭规模大小对家庭类型细分为12组,并引入动态CGE模型中,定量分析了不同人口政策调整对中国经济增长和结构的影响。完善单独、推行二孩晚育政策下的基准情景的人均GDP水平最高;执行严厉计划生育政策的LOW情景的GDP增长率和人均GDP水平最低;完全放宽人口政策的HIGH情景,虽然经济增长速度较快,但是承受着巨大的资源环境压力和人均GDP水平不如基准情景。从人均GDP和环境压力角度来看,我国应该完善"单独"政策,适当推行"二孩晚育"的人口政策,既有利于经济的发展,又能适当减轻社会环境的承载压力。     

中国未来生育政策的选择

近年来社会上对是否应该放开中国的计划生育政策有很多争论。争论的起因是由于一些调查数据反映的和某些学者估计出的我国目前生育率非常低;鉴于低生育率已经给比较发达的国家带来了很多问题,所以有人呼吁中国的生育政策应该放开。通过对放开生育政策和不放开生育政策两种情形可能导致的人口学后果进行估计,结合国外的经验和教训,从低生育率的长期后果来分析如何合理地选择生育政策。为了避免人口达到零增长后的快速负增长、快速老龄化和人口规模的迅速减少,国家应该密切关注人们生育意愿的变化,必须在适当的时候放开生育政策,使生育水平保持在2.0左右,从而尽可能地避免长期的、过快的负增长给国家和社会带来更为严重的人口与社会经济问题。     

生可生 非常生——我国人口生育发展趋势的细分化研究

低生育是后计生时期的标志性特征,在当前,我国人口生育已经进入超低生育水平阶段。与人口控制决策因素相伴随的是人口惯性的产生,因此,反映在人口总量上仍然表现为增长趋势,然而事实上,人口的低生育水平已经远远背离了生育更替水平的基本要求。值得关注的是,人口低生育的持续发展,又会给经济、社会与人口安全带来严峻的后果,为此,根据人口的不同背景,实行生育决策细分化,其中包含有差别的生育放开决策,就是势在必行之举。为此,我们总的指导思想是:生可生,非常生。     

后人口转变时期中国人口政策的思考

人是生产力中最活跃、也是最具决定性的因素。人口形势决定一个国家一定时期的宏观决策。中国因执行"一胎化"计划生育政策,30年间少生了4亿人口,不仅有效扼制了人口过快增长,且为后来经济发展奇迹打下了坚实基础。但该政策也累积了严重的负效应,给人口安全、经济增长和社会稳定带来一定隐患。如果继续推行该政策,生育率会持续下降,且再难以逆转,负效应会更加凸显。面对后人口转变时期的人口趋势,中国当前应在坚持"计划"生育的同时,尽早把握时机,调整生育政策,在未来30年间,从允许生育二胎向鼓励生育二胎转变,从控制人口数量向提升人口质量转变,以使人口与经济、社会能够协调发展和可持续发展。     

从以人为本看我国人口问题与生育政策

我国人口低生育水平正在摆脱"人工控制"性质,越来越具有由经济社会发展驱动的自然性质。人口多少是个相对于经济社会发展的问题,只要经济社发展,人口多也不是大问题。在进入低生育率20年以后的今天,我国人口控制任务已接近基本完成,目前人口较多是历史遗留产物,继续保持超低生育率并不能解决人口多的问题,相反对未来人口、经济、社会平稳发展构成巨大威胁。我国人口多还会持续相当长时间,对此需坦然面对和积极应对。从以人为本科学发展观看,放宽现行生育政策势在必行,取消-孩政策迫在眉睫,这不仅是为了人口经济社会长期平稳发展,更是生育权利的合理回归和保障家庭发展与幸福。     

西南财大出版社新书推介

正为您开拓一片知识的天空书名:低生育水平下中国经济增长的可持续性研究作者:曾祥旭定价:38.00元出版日期:2012年11月内容简介:本书运用人口学及经济学的相关理论和研究方法,在理清人口与经济增长的理论脉络基础上,分析低生育率与经济增长的关系和机制,并从人口规模和人口结构的相关变量出发,确立低生育水平下人口红利、人口老龄化问题等方面对经济增长影响的主体框架,最后提出相关政策建议。本书共分为八章,八章共同构成了本书的四个部分,即研究基础、基本状况、现实考察、结论对策。这四个部分相互联系,层层递进,具有较为严密的逻辑关系。     

东北地区人力资本问题及其对经济发展的长期影响研究

东北地区人力资本问题主要包括人口增长停滞、生育水平长期过低、人口净流出规模增加、人口老龄化速度快程度高等。人力资本问题是东北地区经济陷入困境的重要原因之一,长期看将对未来经济发展产生负面影响,包括影响长期经济增长、长期消费需求、长期发展动力、社会保障体系等。因此,建议在全面放开二孩政策下保障和鼓励育龄人群按政策合理生育,充分发挥本地人力资本作用,有效开发利用老年人力资本,进而形成有利于东北地区经济发展的人力资本环境。     

中国与印度人口转变的经济效应——基于1960-2010年时间序列数据的实证分析

使用19个亚洲国家、1960-2010年的面板数据,比较了印度和中国人口转变的过程及所带来的经济增长,预测了中印两国人口发展趋势及对经济增长的贡献。样本期内,中国人口转变因素解释了人均GDP增长的35.3%,而印度为29.1%,态势上,印度人口转变对经济增长的贡献一直平稳上升;而中国经历了20世纪80年代的高点之后开始下降;未来发展趋势上,中国人口转变带来的人口红利会在本世纪30年代变为负数;而印度在2050年前一直维持较大的正值。     

西海固地区可持续发展中的人口问题研究

文章主要探讨西海固地区人口增长的特点，且在此基础上分析影响生育的经济、社会、政治等因素。结果表明该地区人口增长主要是由少数民族的人口增长过快所致，且人口素质相对低下。这种增长与经济发展水平落后、生态环境恶化、人口超载严重、文盲率高等现象相关。要改变民族地区经济落后的现状，既要调整经济的发展，又要制订适应当地的计划生育、社会保障等政策。     

中国区域经济分化与空间动能解析

1949—2019年，中国各省份经济总量不平等程度先下降后上升，在近十年的短周期内也呈现先下降后上升的态势；而人均实际GDP不平等程度则处于水平波动的状态，近年来呈现σ趋同态势，并在2019年出现β趋同的新迹象。创新能力较弱、政府债务率偏高和劳动人口占比偏低是当前落后地区增长动能匮乏的重要原因。研发支出、资本存量和就业规模是区域经济差距形成的主要原因，可以解释1999—2019年省级层面GDP差异的889%和人均GDP差异的591%，其中研发支出与就业规模是地区GDP总量分化的主因，研发支出与资本存量是地区人均GDP分化的主因。空间计量分析发现，中国区域经济增长的空间溢出效应显著存在，但研发支出、资本存量和就业规模的空间溢出效应存在明显区别，仅周边研发支出对地区经济增长存在正向空间溢出效应，并且东中西三大经济带的空间溢出效应存在一定差异。     

An econometric analysis of the effects of population change on economic growth: a study of Taiwan

This study used an econometric model, estimated from time series data, to evaluate the effects of demographic factors on the T aiwanese economy. The simulation results suggest that, in the short run, a stationary population produces significantly higher income per capita than rapid population growth; in the long run, however, rapid population growth produces a slightly higher income per capita. Under assumptions of very low fertility trends, the population size, equivalent adult consumers, and labor force can be expected to grow by no more than 50% in a century, whereas under the very high fertility trend assumptions, they would more than double. The reason that lower fertility populations produce a smaller gross domestic product per capita in the long run than the normal fertility population is that the negative effects of a slower growing labor force dominate the positive effects of a faster growing capital formation. In terms of the present values of annual income per capita, the slow growing population shows considerably better economic performance. Given the immediate economic advantages of lower fertility, it is important for developing countries with high birth rates to reduce fertility in order to produce higher per capita income effects and break out of poverty. It is considered of little importance that the slow growing populations eventually produce slightly smaller per capita.     

An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China

China has experienced a dramatic demographic transition since the latter half of the twentieth century, and thus, assessing the global economic implications is an important issue. This article uses time-series data on China to estimate the determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. According to the results of the presented co-integration analysis, population has a significantly negative impact on GDP per capita, while savings rate, total factor productivity and degree of industrialization have significantly positive impacts on GDP per capita. These results suggest that the share of the working-age population relative to the total population does not have a strong influence on GDP per capita. Therefore, the contribution of the working-age population to economic growth might not be as large as previously assumed. It is also possible that an increase in savings, remarkable industrialization and rapid technological progress have all stimulated economic growth in China greatly.     

Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.     

生育政策调整是否会影响我国“碳达峰”目标的实现?——基于STIRPAT和Leslie模型的实证研究

以中国人口生育政策调整为研究背景,基于STIRPAT模型和Leslie模型综合考察中国人口生育政策调整可能对实现“我国二氧化碳排放力争2030年前达到峰值”目标所带来的影响。结果表明,除了经济发展水平、能源技术水平、能源消费结构等因素外,人口年龄结构对人均碳排放也具有显著影响。在论文设置的四种生育率情景下,人口总量峰值分别出现在2025年、2027年、2031年和2027年。若生育政策调整能够有效提高社会总和生育率,人口规模和人口年龄结构的变化会使碳排放总量峰值推后出现。因此,中国逐步放宽的人口生育政策可能会给实现碳达峰目标带来一定压力。     

Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes

In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47–0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic ‘trap’.     

The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies.     

二元经济理论与人口流动问题分析

二元经济理论框架下的核心问题是劳动力在两个部门之间的流动。刘易斯模型在分析剩余劳动力的存在、两部门交易条件的变化、输入地有效就业和传统部门在经济增长中的作用等问题时具有高度科学性和实用性。用区域生产总值（GRP）的概念,以向量内积的形式建立简单模型求证人口转移数量。实证揭示了人口流动的主方向是人均GRP较低的区域向较高区域的移动,但也存在反向移动。     

Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?

Most of the developed countries have been experiencing sub-replacement fertility. This leads to worries over the sustainability of economic growth in these countries. Given this concern, we ask the following questions: Is there a force that would allow economic growth and declining population to coexist? Is there a mechanism that could reverse the decline in fertility? We argue that returns to human capital in production provide the key to understanding this relation. Our theoretical framework predicts that, when the degree of increasing returns to human capital in traditional production technologies falls, advanced economies switch their productive efforts from labor-oriented technologies that require a constant creation of young workforce toward human capital-oriented technologies that support an ageing population. We call this shift the “endogenous efficiency-augmenting mechanism”. This suggests that sustained economic growth and a declining population can coexist in the long run. Finally, we compare our model against the data and find: (i) The degree of increasing returns to human capital has been falling over time throughout the world along with population growth rates. (ii) Increasing returns to human capital and population growth rates are positively correlated. (iii) Predictions of our model are consistent with what the data reveal.     

技术增长率的部门差异和经济增长率的“驼峰形”变化

迄今的长期经济增长历史表明,经济增长速度具有"驼峰形"特征,即中等收入时增长速度快,人均收入水平高时次之,收入水平低时最慢。经济增长的历史同时表明,增长速度快的时期几乎都伴随着经济结构剧烈变化。本文试图在新古典理论框架内,构建经济增长模型来解释驼峰形特征以及促成它的经济结构变化。数值实验表明,模型结果合理地解释"驼峰形"的经济事实,而且与Kaldor事实和Kuznetz事实同时相容。     

主要英语国家经济与非英语国家经济的比较分析

20世纪90年代以来,发达国家当中,美国、英国、加拿大和澳大利亚等主要英语国家经济增长普遍快于日本、德国、法国和意大利等主要非英语国家.无论从经济增长速度、人均GDP增长,还是失业率,或者劳动生产率来看,都是主要英语国家好于主要非英语国家.造成这种差距出现的原因是:主要非英语国家由于宏观经济政策出现了一些失误,错失了20世纪90年代新经济发展的机遇,产业没有及时转型以及一些有强大势力的"利益集团"的消极影响,因而其经济增长速度放缓;而主要英语国家由于积极推进经济改革,及时调整产业结构,注重技术创新和提高劳动生产率,充分利用英语语言工具在全球中的优势,因而加快了本国经济的发展.主要英语国家经济与非英语国家经济的增长差别,给其他国家发展本国经济提供了许多有益的启示.