中国的对外外包与出口——基于制造业行业数据的经验研究

依据1997～2007年三张投入产出表的数据计算了我国28个制造业行业的对外外包水平,并以固定效应模型和随机效应模型估算了外包对制造业出口的影响,此外还计算了对外外包对制造业就业的影响。检验结果表明:我国工业品出口数量增长和产品结构提升部分得益于高质量中间投入品的进口。我国的对外外包具有"节约劳动"的特点,降低了制造业的劳动需求。这主要是因为高质量中间投入品的进口替代国内中间品生产,使最终产品生产链条中的劳动需求下降。     

公司内中间品贸易:基于全球价值链的理论考察与实证研究

公司内贸易和中间投入品贸易已成为当代经济全球化过程中两个不可或缺的重要因素,且二者往往基于全球价值链交迭发生.本文用以中间投入品进口为因变量的回归模型估计了公司内进口在中间投入品进口中的绝对和相对重要性,阐释了中间投入品贸易的决定因素,并探讨了公司内贸易和中间投入品贸易的交集及其相互作用.     

中美制造业双边贸易对美国相对工资差距的影响研究*

在新古典贸易理论一般均衡的框架之下,运用1997-2014年中美两国的投入产出、贸易和工资数据,本文定量考察了中美制造业产品的双边贸易同美国制造业相对工资差距的关系。结果发现,美国从中国的净进口对美国制造业非熟练劳动力和熟练劳动力相对工资差距扩大存在影响,但影响幅度较小,贸易并不是引起相对收入差距扩大的唯一原因。但随着中美双边制造业贸易的进一步发展,美中贸易对美国工资差距的影响可能越来越大,以保护非熟练劳动力为名对中国产品实施贸易限制的呼声将会更高。     

国际生产关联带来技市溢出了么?——基于中国制造业中间投入品技术水平的研究

国际生产分工的发展加速了知识和技术的行业间流动,是发展中经济体获得外部技术溢出的重要途径之一.利用全球投入产出数据和产品出口贸易数据构造中间投入品技术水平指标,从中间投入品技术水平视角评估国际和国内生产关联对中国制造业的技术溢出效果.研究发现,上下游行业中间投入品技术水平的提升能通过技术嵌入和生产转换推动制造业技术升级;行业生产关联的技术溢出效应在国内生产网络中更为显著,而在国际生产关联中,高技术进口中间投入品对中国制造业的研发投入产生挤出效应,不利于中国制造业技术升级.在后疫情时期国际产业链加速变革的新形势下,中国应充分利用国内生产关联的技术溢出机制,加强技术创新和行业间技术共享,对外主动对焦国际高技术产品需求,以高水平参与国际生产分工推动制造业技术升级.     

中间投入品进口、产品转换与企业要素禀赋结构升级

本文构建了一个引入多要素投入和中间投入品要素密度差异的一般均衡贸易模型,分析企业进口中间投入品及其产品转换行为对企业要素禀赋结构的影响。结论表明:高生产率企业更倾向于进口中间投入品;企业会根据中间投入品要素密度调整进口种类的数量与规模,发生产品转换行为;通过进口产品转换,中间投入品生产要素流动引起企业要素密度的变动,最终提升企业的要素禀赋结构。经验研究显示,进口中间投入品提升了企业资本密度大约40个百分点,进口产品转换则提升了企业资本密度大约26个百分点。企业通过进口的二元边际提升资本密度,但扩展边际的作用要大于集约边际。因此,通过进一步的贸易自由化、便利化,减少企业中间投入品进口及其进行产品转换的外部政策约束,将有助于提升企业的要素禀赋结构,并进而改善整个经济体的生产与贸易结构,最终推动中国贸易发展的转型与升级。     

贸易结构调整、要素市场扭曲与要素收入分配

笔者把哈里斯-托达罗模型引入H-O模型,分析贸易结构调整、劳动力有限流动、劳动节约型技术进步对收入变动的作用机制.结果发现:要素收入分配与贸易商品要素密集度转变存在密切联系,劳动所有者收入下降是贸易商品结构调整的结果;资本深化和劳动节约型技术进步不利于劳动所有者;作为一个劳动力相对丰裕的国家,贸易商品结构从劳动密集型转向资本密集型,出现和要素密集度背离的现象,原因是要素市场的资源配置扭曲和产品内贸易的发展.     

进口中间投入对中国就业结构的影响——基于中国货物贸易行业数据的再检验

文章根据世界投入产出数据库中提供的相关数据,从进口中间投入、进口服务业中间投入和进口货物中间投入、来自不同国家和地区的进口中间投入三个层面,考察了进口中间投入对中国货物贸易行业就业结构的影响,结果表明:进口中间投入对中国货物行业中高技术劳动相对就业的影响为正,对中技术劳动相对就业的影响为负;进口服务中间投入对中国货物行业中高技术劳动相对就业和中技术劳动相对就业的影响均为负,进口货物中间投入对二者的影响则为正;来自东亚、欧盟和美国的进口中间投入对中国货物行业高技术劳动相对需求和中技术劳动相对需求的影响均为负,来自除上述国家和地区之外的世界其他国家的进口中间投入对中国货物行业高技术劳动相对需求和中技术劳动相对需求的影响均为正.     

中间产品进口、技术溢出与中国制造业的工资不平等

中间产品进口的技术溢出是国际贸易影响熟练劳动与非熟练劳动之间工资不平等的一个重要机制。本文运用中国制造业的面板数据,实证检验了中国制造业从R&D资本存量丰富的发达国家进口中间产品及其技术溢出对中国工资不平等的影响。结果表明,由于物化型的技术溢出,中间产品进口既通过实现熟练劳动力与国际先进R&D资本互补效应,又通过技能偏向的知识学习效应和劳动生产率效应,提高了中国制造业熟练劳动力的工资和就业份额,扩大了熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间的相对工资差距,加剧了工资不平等。随着熟练劳动力供给的增加,工资不平等呈现出先上升后下降的趋势。     

中国出口贸易利益测算与行业差异分析——基于出口收入指数的方法

本文以出口收入指数方法为基础构建出口收入份额指标,计算和分析了2001-2009年期间中国出口的相对贸易利益及其分行业状况。中国在世界平均出口收入指数中的相对份额虽然呈现出一定的上升趋势,但主要是在低技术行业依靠出口规模而获取贸易利益,在高技术行业中国获得的市场份额和贸易利益都很少。面板数据计量检验显示,中国制造业各行业出口收入份额与技术投入、资本和劳动要素投入比例呈现较弱的正相关关系,与外资进入以及参与产品内分工的程度呈现较显著的正相关关系。中国欲摆脱以代工方式加入全球价值链而赚取低廉代工费的现实处境,须致力于物质资本和人力资本积累,提高自主创新能力,从而形成以技术为主导的竞争优势。     

中国收入不平等的贸易诱因探析

文章主要运用现代计量经济学的分析方法剖析了影响中国收入不平等的具体贸易因素。在采用Jo-hansen协整检验法验证了贸易自由化水平与收入不平等存在长期稳定的因果关系后,运用强制进入和逐步剔除相结合的回归方法,筛选出显著的影响因素。结果表明,对基尼系数影响最为显著的变量有贸易依存度、贸易条件和技能劳动的需求量。最后,文章依据实证分析的结果,从贸易的角度提出了一些缓解收入分配的不平等的政策措施。     

The impact of material and service outsourcing on employment in Thailand's manufacturing industries

With increasing emphasis on the importance of outsourcing, the ‘fear of job losses’ has been of significant interest, not only in the developed countries, but also in the developing countries. In this article, we empirically investigate the impacts of intermediate inputs (material) and services outsourcing on the relative demands for skilled and unskilled labour in Thailand's manufacturing sectors from 1999 to 2003. Based on the aggregation of establishment-level data at 4-digit industrial classification, we find that both intermediate inputs and service outsourcing are relatively skill-biased. Further, our results show that intermediate inputs outsourcing has negative impacts on the relative demands for skilled and unskilled workers, whereas service outsourcing shifts the demand towards skilled workers at the expense of unskilled workers.     

Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world

We investigate empirically, and explain theoretically, how the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers vary with their relative supplies in open economies. Our results combine the insights of simple labour market and trade models. In countries that trade, relative wages respond inversely to variation in skill supplies, but the response decreases with the degree of openness to trade and is small in very open countries. To reconcile our results with standard estimates of the elasticity of substitution between skilled and unskilled workers, we allow also for the influence of directed technical change and income elasticity of demand for skill-intensive goods.     

Heterogeneity of imported intermediate inputs and labour: evidence from India’s input tariff liberalization

This article explores whether the nature of imports matters when examining the effects of trade on plant-level labour outcomes. Previous literature that examines this question mainly considers imported intermediate inputs as a homogenous group and is unable to reach a consensus on the effects of input tariff liberalization on employment and wages of skilled and unskilled workers. Exploiting detailed product-level information available on intermediate inputs from plant-level data for the Indian manufacturing sector, I distinguish between plants that import mainly for quality considerations as opposed to plants that seek imports as cheaper alternatives to domestic inputs. I find that strong complementarities exist between skilled workers and imported inputs for plants importing high-quality inputs. For plants importing intermediate inputs mainly as a cost-cutting strategy, input tariff liberalization leads to an increase in employment of both skilled and unskilled workers, but a decline in skill composition. This can best be explained as a strategy that achieves economies of scale. On average, as input tariffs liberalize, importing plants employ more workers and pay higher wages than non-importing plants.     

Time-Series Wage Differential in Taiwan: The Role of International Trade

Rising relative wages between skilled and unskilled workers in developed countries has been a popular subject of recent studies. This paper analyzes Taiwan, a semi-developed economy, where the relative wage reveals a declining trend since the mid-1980s. The authors study the role of international trade. A major point of departure is to distinguish the effects of net exports to OECD countries from those to non-OECD countries. The paper also differentiates the effects of net exports to China from those to non-OECD countries except China. It is found that net exports to the OECD countries raise the relative wage of skilled workers, whereas net exports to non-OECD countries and China diminish the relative wage. Moreover, the impacts of net exports to China are much larger than those to OECD and other non-OECD countries. The documented wage effects of international trade in this work diverge from what existing works have argued based on Heckscher–Ohlin theory.     

Skill Composition,Fertility, and Economic Growth

While high fertility persists in the poorest countries and fertility declines with per capita income in developing countries, fertility and per capita income are now positively associated across most developed countries. This paper presents a model where a U‐shaped relationship between overall fertility and per capita income reflects within country differences in workforce skill composition and household choice of occupation, fertility, and childrearing. The fraction of skilled workers rises with economic growth. By allowing for both differences in the fertility of skilled and unskilled workers and purchased childrearing inputs, we explain a poverty trap with high fertility, fertility decline with economic development, and the possible reversal of fertility decline in a developed economy where most workers are skilled.     

A Regional Analysis of the Impact of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment on Wages in Mexico, 1984–2000

The conventional Heckscher–Ohlin model of trade predicts an equalizing effect of trade on wages in developing countries abundant in less‐skilled labor. Contrary to these predictions, skill premiums and skill demand increased in Mexico following trade liberalization. “New” trade theories have offered several channels through which trade can increase relative wages and demand for skilled workers. One such channel is foreign direct investment and outsourcing. Using the Mexican Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) covering 1984–2000, the author examines the relationship between the demand for skill and maquiladora employment across regions and states. In contrast to previous studies based on manufacturing data for the 1980s, little evidence is found that growth in maquiladora employment is positively related to the increase in relative wages or wage‐bill share of more educated workers.     

国际垂直专业化与工资收入差距——基于工业行业数据的实证分析

文章从理论上分析了国际垂直专业化对不同参与国工资收入差距的影响机制,并在此基础上运用我国工业行业面板数据,实证分析了我国参与国际垂直专业化的工资收入差距效应.结果表明:国际垂直专业化是影响我国工资收入差距的重要因素,国际垂直专业化程度的加深会扩大我国工业行业熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力之间的工资收入差距;行业技术进步同样会扩大工资收入差距,但前者的工资收入差距扩大效应显著高于后者;当考虑行业要素密集度差异时,无论是国际垂直专业化还是行业技术进步在资本相对密集的行业都要比劳动密集型行业的工资收入差距效应更为显著.     

Skill distribution and income disparity in a North‐South trade model

Abstract. What are the impacts of free trade agreement on the welfare of different types of workers in a developed country? What is the impact of free trade on a developed country's income disparity? What is the effect of free trade on the skill distribution of a developed country? The objective of this paper is to address the above questions in a two‐sector general‐equilibrium North‐South trade model in which both countries produce one final good and one high‐tech intermediate input. The final good is produced with the use of a high‐tech intermediate input and unskilled workers. Horizontally differentiated skilled workers produce the high‐tech intermediate input. Each country is populated by a continuum of unskilled workers with differential potential ability. Workers in the North and South can acquire skills by investment in training or education. Thus, skill distribution in the North and South is determined endogenously in the model through a self‐selection process. I characterize two different types of equilibria: a closed‐economy equilibrium without trade and a free trade equilibrium. Then, I investigate the impact of free trade, in the presence of training costs, on the skill distribution within each country, income disparity, and social welfare. JEL classification: D63, F10, J31     

APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY AND INCOME DIFFERENCES

This article studies the relative productivity of skilled to unskilled workers across countries. Relative productivities are broken down into the human capital embodied in skilled workers and relative physical productivities (reflecting production techniques). I find that skilled workers from poorer countries embody less human capital and are also relatively less physically productive. Furthermore, results show that production techniques are inappropriate for most low‐income countries, and these countries experience large increases in GDP per capita by increasing the relative physical productivity of skilled to unskilled workers. This suggests that there are significant barriers to the adoption of skill‐complementary technologies.     

Firms’ location decision across asymmetric countries and employment inequality

This paper analyzes the effect of globalization (lower trade costs) on production and trade patterns if, firms are vertically linked, stages of production differ in labor-factors intensity and countries differ in labor-factors prices. In order to reflect the “Continental Europe” experience, relative wages are assumed fixed and spatial changes in production are translated into changes in relative (skilled to unskilled) employment levels. The asymmetry in factors prices across countries results in a unique agglomeration equilibrium for a broad range of trade costs. At low trade costs, firms’ location depends on production costs—vertical specialization occurs. This paper also provides a consistent explanation of the observed increase in employment inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in relatively high-unskilled wage countries.