旅游流网络结构韧性特征变化及其影响因素——以贵州省为例

文章通过网络爬虫获取贵州省2010—2022年旅游流数据,构建旅游流网络及其结构韧性的综合评估及攻击指标体系,并借助复杂网络、指数随机图等方法,实证探讨了贵州省旅游流网络结构韧性的变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)贵州省旅游流网络结构韧性呈现先下降后上升的态势,旅游流网络联系的增强并未带来网络结构韧性的提升。韧性水平较高的地区多为东南部的旅游中心城市;(2)分维度来看,贵州省旅游流网络形成了较为典型的“核心—边缘”层级结构,网络的匹配性明显,传输性在不断提升,小团体集聚现象开始凸显;(3)旅游流网络结构在随机攻击下呈现出鲁棒性特征,而在蓄意攻击下脆弱性较为显著,且在蓄意攻击下网络承受能力随时间推移整体呈现上升趋势,旅游流核心网络不断拓展;(4)网络内生结构、个体属性以及外生网络变量共同影响着旅游流网络结构韧性变化。其中,网络互惠性、经济水平、产业结构、政府支持与接待能力对旅游流网络结构韧性变化具有显著正向影响,市场规模对旅游流网络结构韧性变化的正向作用不断凸显,而网络边数与空间距离对旅游流网络结构韧性变化具有明显的抑制作用。     

长三角城市群城市经济韧性测度与时空分异特征分析

文章选取2006—2020年长三角城市群27个城市的面板数据,对长三角城市群城市经济韧性进行测度,采用Dagum基尼系数分解法、K-Means聚类法及莫兰指数分别探究长三角城市群城市经济韧性水平的差异化特征、空间演变过程及空间集散特征,最后运用空间杜宾模型进行影响因素分析。研究发现：（1）在样本期内,长三角城市群27个城市的经济韧性水平总体呈上升趋势;（2）江苏省与浙江省的经济韧性差异最小,上海市与安徽省的经济韧性差异最大,且各省市间经济韧性的差异逐渐趋于稳定;（3）长三角城市群的城市经济韧性具体表现为以上海市为核心的“中心外围”格局;（4）城市经济韧性呈现明显的空间相关性和集聚特征,由高高集聚和低低集聚为主的城市经济韧性空间关联模式逐渐演化为多样类型;（5）投资、文化建设、社会信息化程度、行政调控力和环境治理对长三角城市群城市经济韧性具有显著的正向影响。     

经济外部性对中国保险业空间集聚的影响

保险业是城市经济和社会稳定发展的基本工具和重要途径,作为保险业发展的基本空间单元,不同城市发展保险业的动力机制和模式选择存在差异。文章采用2006—2016年地级以上城市的保险业数据分析中国保险业发展的空间集聚特征并从经济外部性视角分析其驱动机制。研究发现:①中国保险业规模快速增长,样本期内,保费收入年均增长高达18.56%;城市间保险业发展的相对差异和集聚水平呈现下降趋势;②中国保险业具有显著的非均衡性特征,热点城市主要分布在胡焕庸线以东,相对优势地区为东部城市群、中心城市和东北与西北地区的部分城市,京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群呈现高—高集聚模式;③经济外部性影响中国保险业空间集聚发展,制度外部性、市场外部性和技术外部性对保险业具有不同程度影响,其中,制度外部性影响最为显著;④城市所处区域、城市等级和城市规模对经济外部性影响保险业发展具有调节作用。     

中国三大城市群高速铁路网络结构与特征

构建长三角、珠三角、京津冀城际O-D高铁运营频次矩阵,运用社会网络分析法研究三大城市群高铁网络结构与特征,结果表明:高铁整体关联性京津冀紧密,长三角次之,珠三角松散;然而长三角内部高铁城市联系与高铁网络不均衡性最强;长三角东部比其西部高铁联系密切,珠三角北部强于群内其他区域,京津冀高铁流动频繁区集中在京津;省域内部高铁紧密性:江苏浙江广东河北安徽;城际视角,深圳—广州、上海—南京、上海—苏州、南京—苏州、上海—无锡属于点对点间高密度联系。三大城市群高铁网络均具有显著的"小世界"效应特征,京津冀与长三角的"小世界"效应更明显,其中合肥—苏州—镇江—南京—无锡—六安为长三角重要辐射集群,广州—惠州、深圳—东莞、天津—沧州为重要辐射力的高铁城市对,上海、南京为长三角高铁网络核心,广州与深圳为珠三角核心,北京与天津为京津冀核心。     

区域一体化能够增强城市韧性吗？——基于城市韧性多维度的视角

探究区域一体化策略对城市韧性的影响对于城市治理水平和宜居程度的提升具有十分重要的意义。文章基于2003—2020年285个城市面板数据,使用多期双重差分法探讨以中国十大城市群为单位的区域一体化对城市韧性水平的影响、异质性及其内在作用机制。结果表明：（1）区域一体化能显著提高城市韧性水平,通过一系列稳健性检验后结果依然成立。（2）区域一体化在东部地区、超大规模城市群以及多中心城市群更能发挥其对城市韧性水平的提高作用。（3）区域一体化能够通过结构优化效应增强城市经济韧性,通过多样性效应增强城市经济韧性和社会韧性,通过规模效应减弱城市生态韧性,而对城市工程韧性没有显著影响。并且,区域一体化对城市经济韧性和城市社会韧性的增强作用大于其对城市生态韧性的减弱作用,因此区域一体化对城市整体韧性水平呈现增强作用。文章基于城市韧性多维度视角,分析区域一体化对城市韧性各维度的作用机制,为充分发挥区域一体化对城市韧性的促进作用提供了经验证据。     

长三角协同创新网络韧性演化及驱动机制研究

构建以网络节点韧性、网络结构韧性以及网络群落韧性为核心的城市网络韧性评价体系,并运用ERGM模型分析创新网络韧性形成的驱动机制。研究表明：①创新网络节点韧性分布格局呈动态演进特征,由以“沪宁”为强韧性核心形态向以“沪苏锡”为强韧性核心再向以“沪宁苏杭”为强韧性核心形态转变;②网络结构类型相对稳定,三元结构中以核心节点散射联系的网络结构为主,四元结构中以散射联系及三元结构为基础的网络结构为主,随时间演进,整体网络结构韧性表现为曲折提升趋势;③创新网络群落逐渐减少,聚集指数持续上升,长三角创新一体化程度不断加深,抵御外部冲击能力增强;④创新合作互惠性及交互性逐渐成为创新网络韧性强化的驱动因素,产业结构及对外开放的驱动作用也较为显著,而创新网络韧性与信息距离网络存在强依赖性。     

高速铁路对城市群经济发展格局的影响及其作用机制

本文详细阐述了高铁开通对城市群发展的影响机理,以2005-2018年中国五大城市群92个地级市的数据为样本,从城市群视角出发,通过构建DID估计模型考察了高铁开通对经济发展格局的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：从整体城市群层面来看,高铁开通提升了五大城市群的经济增长水平,并缩小了城市群经济差距；从分城市群层面来看,高铁开通对每个城市群的经济增长均产生了正向效应,并显著地缩小了京津冀、长江三角和珠三角城市群的经济差距,有利于实现经济一体化；人才集聚、资本集聚、技术创新在高铁开通影响经济发展格局的过程中起着中介作用。     

基于多中心性分析的中国交通网络互补性的空间格局

基于强度、介数和紧密度多中心性指标,构建城际交通互补度模型,刻画了中国地级及以上城市间铁路、公路与航空网络的互补性空间格局:中国过半城市为铁路—公路"双轮驱动型",主要连绵呈片状展布于东北、东南沿海及中部地区,以航空为主导交通方式的城市基本呈点状镶嵌于一线或省会城市;铁路与公路互补程度最高,且高值区高度集聚于西部省份,铁路与航空互补度高值区相对集中于东北、中部和西部城市群,以及东部京津冀和珠三角,而公路与航空互补度峰值区分布零散,主要呈点状分布于各省会城市;整体上,综合交通互补度的空间自相关较弱,局部以铁路—公路互补度集聚程度最高,热点区集聚于西南,冷点区则散落分布于多个省份。     

绿色发展视角下长三角城市群城市创新网络结构特征研究

以长三角城市群41个主要城市为研究单元,研究了绿色发展视角下的城市创新网络问题。通过引力模型得出各城市创新联系强度,进而运用社会网络分析方法研究城市群创新网络结构特征。结果表明：绿色发展视角下长三角城市群创新网络密度较低,阻碍了创新要素的传递,网络中心势不高,集中程度低,网络凝聚力不强;根据网络节点中心度数发现,以发达城市为核心的半轮轴型集聚格局基本形成;网络中结构洞数目不断增加,网络结构不断优化;网络核心-边缘结构呈现,核心区域空间集聚效应明显;由块模型得出8大子群,子群特征呈现多样化。     

中国港口业与区域经济增长的时空关联模式演变

以中国五大港口群作为研究对象,选取1994—2014年时间段,运用时空自相关和时空偏自相关函数确定最优时间滞后期数和空间延迟阶数,同时用全局时空自相关STI指数和局部时空自相关PSTI指数,对五大港口群在全局和局部之间的港口业与经济增长的时空关联模式变化进行研究。结果表明:(1)长三角港口群和珠三角港口群STI值较高,港口业—经济发展一直处于较高的集聚状态,发展水平较高,西南沿海港口群STI值较低,集聚状态较弱,环渤海港口群STI指数先减小后增大,时空正相关性有轻微波动,东南沿海港口群STI指数始终为正且缓慢增加。(2)环渤海区域整个H-H型区域朝渤海湾移动,辽东半岛以大连为中心向北向东辐射,形成了港口经济腹地;长三角区域由南京向江苏中东部方向辐射移动,形成了以上海港、苏州港为干线港,南京、南通等长江下游港口为周边港的港口布局;东南沿海区域以宁波、舟山为中心向浙江西部和福建东部呈"V"字型扩散,港口业和经济的中心南移;珠三角区域整体范围内时空集聚性增强,但局部差异进一步扩大;西南沿海区域以南宁为中心向西北延伸,形成了以南宁、百色、河池为中心的辐射经济区。     

Resilience in the Dynamics of Economy-Environment Systems

The ecological concept of resilience has begun to inform analysis of change in economy-environment systems. The linkages between resilience and the stability of dynamical systems are discussed, along with its role in understanding of the evolution of such systems. Particular linkages discussed include those between resilience, biodiversity and the sustainability of alternative states. Recent developments in modelling the resilience of joint economy-environment systems suggest the advantages of analysing change in the system as a Markov process, the transition probabilities between states offering a natural measure of the resilience of the system in such states. It is argued that this ‘emergent property’ of the collaboration between ecology and economics has far-reaching implications for the way we think about, model and manage the environmental sustainability of economic development.     

Sustainable Development and Resilience in Ecosystems

Two new important developments in environmental and resource economics is presented—non convex dynamics of ecosystems and wealth as an indicator of sustainable development. Non convex dynamics imply existence of resilience, that is the robustness of systems to withstand exogenous perturbations. Resilience can be regarded as an insurance against flips of the system into different basins of stability. Sustainable development, according to the Bruntland report, is the provision of productive resources to future generations to make it possible for them to live as well as the present generation. Thus, the value of changes in productive assets is therefore an index of whether an economy is on a sustainable path or not. Resilience can be regarded as one such productive asset and the paper discusses how one can define the value of this asset.     

The Resilience Agenda in Neoliberalising Cambodia

The paper provides a critical assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience strategies in Cambodia with reference to resilience. The paper argues that resilience is a part of and correlated to the localised practices of a specific form of neoliberalisation in and of Cambodia. As a result, disaster risk strategy is a potential means of managed neoliberal state-led intervention capacity in sub-regions to pre-empt and manage particular forms of land and social conflict. The paper links current state-led resilience policy to the Cambodian government’s increasing interest in ensuring land for infrastructure connectivity as its national development plan in the context of regional economic integration.     

Resilience and Dynamism of Embedded Financial Transactions in Cameroon

Following the recent financial crisis, institutional economists have issued a “call” for institutionalist research on alternative financial systems. While suggestions have been forthcoming, (for example, in Volume 48, Issue 4 of the Journal of Economic Issues), most have centered on national-level innovations in advanced capitalist countries, prompting further calls for “community” and individual level anti-capitalist financial relations. With this article, we respond to such calls. We show how networks of finance in Cameroon bridge the formal/informal dualisms in lending/savings activities. We demonstrate that any debates about whether to formalize informal financial institutions or leave them alone weaken in Cameroon because, through networks, people access both formal and informal financial institutions for different purposes and at various stages in the life of these institutions. This dynamism explains why, in spite of the growth of money markets in Cameroon, informal financial institutions have not disappeared, nor declined. In fact, they have expanded, contrary to predictions in existing new institutional economics research. While informal institutions have evolved, they have not necessarily become formal banks, microfinance, or stock markets. Rather, the informal financial institutions have adopted and adapted in terms of both lending and saving practices in a country where growing formal financialization has become the norm. Our findings challenge neoclassical and new institutional economics theories about money, credit, and the actors in the money market.     

Modelling Loss of Resilience in Agroecosystems: Rangelands in Botswana

Economists have recently begun to consider the questions raised by the ecological concept of resilience – a measure of the degree to which a system can be perturbed before it switches from one stability domain to another. At a theoretical level, it has been argued that the loss of resilience in an ecological-economic system involves a change in its long-run productive potential, but no consideration has yet been given to the empirical investigation of this. This paper discusses an econometric approach to the problem, using the example of semi-arid rangelands. The long-run productive potential of the system is regarded as an unobserved state variable, change in which is irreversible or at least only slowly reversible. It is estimated by applying the extended (nonlinear) Kalman filter. The paper illustrates the approach using data from Botswana for the period 1965–1993. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters associated with the loss of resilience mechanism are non-zero. They indicate a small loss of resilience event at the end of the long drought in the 1980s. However, these parameters are very imprecisely estimated and are therefore statistically insignificant. We find that the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks varies with fluctuations in both economic and non-economic parameters. Contrary to what is usually thought to be the case, the sensitivity of the system to exogenous shocks is only weakly affected by variations in offtake prices, but is very strongly affected by variations in the cost of herd maintenance. This suggests that offtake prices may be a weak tool for controlling the size of cattle stocks and preventing a loss of resilience. On the other hand, taxes on cattle stocks or grazing fees may be very effective.     

Understanding Resilience in Climate Change and Conflict Affected Regions of Nepal

In the face of global climate change, strengthening community resilience becomes increasingly important, especially in conflict affected countries with fragile governance. Nepal is such a country, recovering from a decade of civil war while facing several climate and environmental risks, including floods, droughts and landslides. We aim to contribute to the understanding of resilience building by drawing on case studies from Banke, Dang and Rolpa districts in Nepal. To compare the resilience of the districts we conduct field research. None of the analysed approaches to strengthen the resilience are without unintended consequences. The provision of rice in Rolpa increases food security but also creates local preferences for rice that cannot be met sustainably. In Dang and Banke aid resources themselves have become a source of conflict. We conclude that a more holistic understanding of local realities is needed to minimise unintended effects and strengthen resilience under challenging governance and (post)conflict conditions.     

环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性评价

基于人海关系地域系统与弹性内涵，提出人海关系地域系统弹性内涵，构建“抵抗-适应-转换”人海关系地域系弹性研究框架和指标体系，运用递阶综合指数法和均值标准差分类法分析环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性的时空差异。结果表明：（1）环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性不断增强，17年间实现了由低弹性向高弹性发展阶段的跨越；（2）人海资源环境系统抵抗能力地区间差异较小，呈北-西-南抵抗能力逐渐减小的“梯度化”分异特征；人海经济系统适应能力较弱，区域间差异较小；人海社会系统转换能力突出，地区差异较大呈现“集群化”分异特征；（3）将环渤海地区人海关系地域系统弹性分为3类，弹性高级类型区（0.445～1.000）为天津市；弹性中级类型区（0.364～0.445）有大连、青岛、东营、烟台和威海；弹性初级类型区（0.000～0.364）有唐山、秦皇岛、沧州、丹东、锦州、营口、盘锦、葫芦岛、潍坊、日照和滨州。     

经济集聚对城市经济韧性的影响

本文利用2004～2018年中国285个地级及以上城市数据,研究了经济集聚对城市经济韧性的影响。研究发现:经济集聚显著促进了城市经济韧性的提升。将经济集聚影响城市经济韧性的路径分解为多样化集聚和专业化集聚后发现,多样化集聚显著提升了城市经济韧性,专业化集聚对城市经济韧性的影响为正但不显著。进一步将城市按照规模和区位进行划分后发现,大城市经济集聚对经济韧性的影响程度显著高于中、小城市;东部城市经济集聚对经济韧性的影响程度显著高于中部和西部城市;多样化集聚对提升大城市和中等城市的经济韧性作用显著,专业化集聚对提升小城市的经济韧性作用显著;多样化集聚对东部城市经济韧性促进作用最大,对西部城市促进作用最小;专业化集聚对东部、中部和西部城市经济韧性的影响均不显著。本文的研究对推进差异化的城市化战略具有重要的政策含义。     

组织韧性内涵、维度及测量

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