基于组织生态理论的创意产业创新生态系统演化规律研究

创意产业创新生态系统演化具有类似于自然生态系统内种群演化的行为特性,二者在结构功能、运行机理、演化发展等方面都存在着众多的相似性。创意产业创新生态系统的模仿机制、竞合机制和知识传导机制类似于自然生态系统内的遗传、变异与选择机制; 创意产业创新生态系统演化也呈现出明显的阶段性特征和生命周期性; 创意产业创新生态系统种群具有自己特定的生态位,种群之间的演化遵循特定的规律。     

创意产业创新生态系统演化机理研究

创意产业创新生态系统类似于自然生态系统,二者在结构功能、运行机理、演化发展等方面都存在着众多的相似性。创意产业创新生态系统的演化过程类似于生物群落的进化现象,创意产业创新生态链中各主体之间进行物质和能量的流动与交换。创意产业创新生态链包括横向产业生态链和纵向产业生态链,其演化规律包括创意的产业化与产业的创意化。决策部门必须不断完善创意产业创新生态系统的生态因子。     

工业互联网产业集群生态系统构建——基于文本挖掘的质性研究

关于工业互联网这一虚拟产业集群的研究缺乏对构成要素和系统结构的深度解析,如何促进工业互联网产业生态发展亟需理论支持。从生态系统视角探讨工业互联网产业集群,利用文本挖掘技术开展质性研究。通过新闻热点挖掘与政策演化分析,提炼工业互联网领域关键元素,抽象形成工业互联网核心要素及其关联关系。进而结合生态系统理论,探讨各要素之间的组织方式及作用路径,构建平台核心—链式关联—生态网络三层结构的工业互联网产业集群生态系统模型。通过剖析工业互联网产业集群的运作机理和结构特性,为工业互联网平台建设与生态发展提供实践参考和理论支持。     

基于城市创新的产业集群生态:系统关联对接与结构演化

基于城市创新形成的产业集群生态系统是一个具有开放性和远离平衡的经济、科技和社会共生发展的复杂系统。城市创新与产业集群在依存空间、创新系统、功能目标及生态特征等方面的关联对接,是集群生态系统形成与发展的基础。系统内各要素联系互动形成的"两层四群"网络结构,决定着系统功能。在非线性作用下,各要素竞争协作,形成了系统的自组织演化机制,推动了系统的演化发展。     

城市物流产业集群生态系统结构及演化机理分析

城市物流产业相关企业及支撑机构在城市一定空间聚集,耦合共生形成一类具有自组织、自调节、自适应功能的产业生态系统。文章按生态经济学原理和产业集群经济规律,界定了城市物流产业集群生态系统的概念及组成要素;结合复杂系统自组织和生物种群进化理论,分析了城市物流产业集群生态系统演化的前提、诱因、动力和方式,进而从系统内部企业个体、种群、集群与外部环境协同演化三个层面分析了城市物流产业集群生态系统的自组织演化机理,为认识城市物流产业集群发展规律、科学制定调控政策等提供了新的思路。     

产业技术创新生态系统演化机理研究

自然界的生态群落理论对产业技术创新生态系统的发展有着重要启示,从技术创新系统的生态特点出发,构建了产业技术创新生态系统模型。分析系统模型中技术的遗传、衍生和变异等演化模式及对应的消化吸收、集成创新、原始创新三种创新方式,探讨了产业技术创新生态系统的运行机理,提出了创新系统生态化的实现途径。     

中国节能产业创新生态系统耦合机理研究

为了提高节能产业创新生态系统对于生态经济发展的服务能力,通过分析中国节能产业创新生态系统耦合的特性、功能及构成要素,明晰构建节能产业创新生态系统的重要途径和技术支撑,从节能企业间链式耦合、创新生态系统要素间网式耦合及节能产业创新生态系统空间耦合3个方面,阐述了节能产业创新生态系统耦合机理,并强调了节能信息资源利用在节能产业创新生态系统耦合中的重要性,提出了通过构建节能信息服务平台支撑节能产业创新生态系统耦合运行的构想。     

文化创意产业协同创新生态系统构建对策研究

文化创意产业能否成为中国国民经济支柱性产业关系到“两个一百年”奋斗目标和“中国梦”的实现。研究文化创意产业创新发展对于促进产业结构优化、推动经济可持续化发展具有十分重要的现实意义。在对创新生态系统以及文化创意产业特点梳理总结的基础上,结合现有创新生态系统结构模型,提出了与中国文化创意产业发展相适配的协同创新生态系统结构模型,并就中国文化创意产业创新生态系统构建提出了相关对策建议。     

中国再生资源产业园区演进阶段与驱动力研究

再生资源产业园区是我国再生资源产业集群式发展的主要载体。从再生资源产业园区顶层设计视角概括了我国再生资源产业集群化发展的演化历史,根据再生资源产业集群特性设计园区新建和运行驱动机制,并将产业集群钻石体系理论应用于再生资源产业园区的转型升级,形成组织驱动要素体系,初步为我国再生资源产业园区的新建、运行和转型升级构建了完整的驱动力理论体系。     

演化博弈视角下创意产业集群企业创新竞合机制分析

产业集群中存在着大量的企业竞合行为,它是影响集群创新能力的关键要素。以创意产业集群为例,在阐释集群企业创新竞合机理的基础上,运用演化博弈理论的分析方法,构建了创意产业集群内企业创新战略竞合选择过程的演化博弈模型,并对策略的选择进行了演化动态稳定性分析,最后得出了竞合过程的演化结果主要受合作收益、合作成本以及采取合作创新策略成功的概率3个因素影响的结论。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.