An evaluation of government- sponsored vocational training programmes for the unemployed in urban Russia

This is the first study on the effects of active labour marketprograms such as training in Russia. We use the data from theofficial unemployment register combined with information fromthe follow-up survey in a large industrial city in the year2000. The method of propensity score matching was applied tolearn whether participation in the training programmes increasedthe monthly salaries of participants. The findings suggest thatindividuals tend to benefit from the participation in the trainingprogrammes. However, one year later, this effect disappeared.     

THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERS

The short‐run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long‐run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J‐curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long‐run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J‐curve hypothesis.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

The role of farmer cooperatives in promoting environmentally sustainable agricultural development in China: A review

Environmentally sustainable agricultural development is an essential part of the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations in 2015. This article systematically reviews studies on the role of farmer cooperatives in promoting environmentally sustainable agricultural development and uses China as a case study to analyze the measures and function mechanisms of farmer cooperatives in promoting the adoption and scaling of sustainable farming practices by farmers. Farmer cooperatives in China influence farmers’ farming practices and benefits by not only serving farmers with various information and technologies but also supervising farmers’ production processes. Nevertheless, farmer cooperatives, both in general and in China in particular, face challenges in effectively promoting the adoption of environmentally sustainable farming practices. A few policy implications are proposed based on these analyses.     

An economic evaluation of market development programmes for US dairy products

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers.     

欧美创业研究:发展历程、研究异同与力量根源

当前,中国创业研究快速发展,已有文献对国外相关理论和研究进展进行了较为详尽的综述,但缺少对美国和欧洲这两个创业研究最前沿国家和地区整体状况的研究。将美国和欧洲的创业研究划分为3个时间段,采用文献共引分析方法,对引文和研究主题进行纵向分析和横向比较。研究发现:在创业领域发展初期,欧美创业研究差异很大;但是随着领域的不断发展和成熟,两个地区研究主题的相似性和引文重合度不断提高。将上述现象归因于情境力量和内部力量的作用,并对相似与内部力量、差异与情境力量进行了讨论,最后总结了对中国创业研究的启示。     

中国金融发展与农民收入增长

本文在对中国金融发展与农民收入增长进行制度和结构分析的基础上,运用1952—2003年的实际数据,对中国整体金融发展、农村金融发展与农民收入增长的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示:中国金融发展对农民收入增长具有显著的负效应,用金融发展与经济增长的正向作用关系直接替代金融发展与农民收入增长的关系,与我国经济发展的事实并不相符;同时,也验证了制度和结构分析所揭示的“中国金融发展中防止结构和功能失衡至关重要”的命题。在此基础上,文章就金融发展促进农民收入增长提出了简要的政策建议。     

Meta‐Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation

We review previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta‐analysis. We survey 71 papers analysing the different periods of Chinese economic development since the 1950s that were published in English or Chinese. We confirm that Pacific Rim economies in particular have relatively high business cycle correlation with China. It appears that many characteristics of the studies and authors influence the reported degree of business cycle synchronization. For instance, Chinese‐language papers report higher correlation coefficients. Despite this, we do not detect robust evidence for publication bias in the papers. Moreover, we show that the broad evidence does not confirm the popular decoupling hypothesis.     

The current status and systematic framework of talent programmes in basic research in China: a system theory perspective

Talent programmes are treated as a strategic foundation for social–economic development in China. With increasing levels of funding for basic research, talent programmes in basic research are becoming more complex. This increased complexity leads to inefficiencies because it is difficult to coordinate and manage these talent programmes effectively. This paper reports a survey of talent programmes in basic research in China. The results show that talent programmes in basic research have not yet formed an integrated system and that there exist some weaknesses in integration, structure, hierarchy and chronological order. Based on these conclusions, this paper proposes a framework for the talent programme system in basic research using system theory. Furthermore, measures to address weaknesses in the existing talent programme system are provided and analysed according to China's national talent strategy. These measures should be helpful for promoting the operation of talent programmes and optimising their overall performance.     

Financing technology transfer: assessment of university-oriented proof-of-concept programmes

This study analyses the characteristics of the proof-of-concept (POC) programmes initiated by university and public research organisations in Europe, as a mechanism to address funding gaps and improve the transfer of research-based inventions to markets. We contribute to the literature on investment readiness of new ventures and on financing technology transfer by assessing the structure of such funding instruments and identifying critical success factors for their design and implementation. The analyses rely on seven in-depth case studies of university-oriented POCs in Europe.     

PRC Outward Investment in the USA and Europe: A Model of R&D Acquisition

In this paper, I present a theoretical framework designed to explain People's Republic of China (PRC) outward foeign direct investment in the USA and Europe, in search of research and development (R&D) acquisition modeled as positive “spillover effects” in a two‐country model with firms distinguished by their ability to innovate. The motivation for this paper is the growing PRC merger and acquisition activity in Europe and the USA. The fact that the PRC, despite its many successful internal reforms, cannot induce innovation activity designed to alter its external sector from one that is based on cheap labor to one that is based on innovation‐rich products, has forced it to use its extensive reserve holdings to acquire the necessary R&D via merger and acquisition. These acquisitions will allow the PRC to alter their domestic and export product mix and thus avoid the middle‐income trap.     

Labour market programmes and the equity-efficiency trade-off

This paper studies optimal labour market policy in a society where differently gifted individuals can invest in training to further increase their labour market productivity and where the government seeks both efficiency and equity. Frictions in the matching process create unemployment and differently skilled workers face different levels of risk of unemployment. We show that in such an environment, training programmes that are targeted at the disadvantaged workers complement passive transfers (UI benefits), unlike general training subsidies. Combining passive subsidies with a training subsidy conditioned on the individual being unemployed (for a period) – the typical Active Labour Market Programme – creates a favourable trade-off between equity and efficiency and this encourages high spending on training.     

Measuring the effectiveness of voluntary emission reduction programmes

This paper examines the evaluation of state environmental policies aimed at reducing ground level ozone in order to meet air quality standards set by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Several states with metropolitan areas that violate federal air quality regulations have adopted voluntary emission reduction programmes. These programmes focus on emissions from mobile sources, with the chief source being the automobile. States are allowed to claim credit towards bringing their metro areas closer to compliance with regulations only if they can provide credible evidence that these voluntary programmes are successful in reducing emissions. A model is developed to forecast aggregate traffic volumes so that one can assess the impact of the programme in reducing traffic flows during ‘Ozone Action Days’. Background information on the difficulties of measuring the ozone problem and on the recent policies adopted by the US EPA is provided. Using data from the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area, the accuracy of the model is demonstrated and preliminary analysis of whether the programmes which began in the summer of 1998 has had the desired impact is provided.     

Does democratization spur growth?

Many studies have considered how democratization affects economic growth. We expand this work by allowing short‐ and long‐run effects of democracy upon growth to differ since effects during political transitions need not coincide with those under established democracies. We also allow these short‐ and long‐run effects to differ across world regions since history, demography and geography vary across regions. Using annual, cross‐county data from 1960 to 2010, we find that democratizations increased growth rates in sub‐Saharan Africa both in the short run and in the long run but lowered them in Europe. Effects in other regions appear less strong. Our results suggest that democracy could be most beneficial for growth in poorer, less stable regions. We also do not find any evidence of a transitional cost. Stronger evidence arises that these effects come from rising productivity rather than through greater investment. Finally, some support though mixed suggests that democracy's ability to mitigate the effects of ethnic heterogeneity provides a partial explanation for the cross‐regional heterogeneity.     

The determinants of training participation in Singapore

This article uses the Singapore Labour Force survey data to examine the determinants of workers’ participation in training programmes in Singapore. The results show that different socio-demographic and employment related characteristics affect the training participation of workers. Well-educated and better paid workers are much more likely to participate in training programmes than others. Age has a positive impact on training participation for younger workers (under 37 years), but a negative effect on older workers’ participation. The results also indicate that occupational affiliations have a significant impact on training participation. We also find that married workers seem to be less likely to participate in training programmes, but the difference between married and single is only significant at the 10% level. Finally, gender does not have any significant effect at any conventional level although the coefficient on the female dummy is positive, suggesting females might be slightly more likely to participate in training programmes.     

Imperfect evaluation in project screening

This paper studies a model in which an agent considers proposing a project of unknown quality to an evaluator, who has to decide on whether or not to accept it. Earlier papers considered the case when the evaluation is perfect and showed than higher submission fees increase the expected quality of projects submitted for review by discouraging long-shot submissions. We examine the case of two-sided incomplete information where not only the agent’s, but also the evaluator’s assessment of the project is imperfect. We show that under this specification, an increase in the submission fee may lead to a decrease in the quality of projects that are implemented because of its adverse effects on the evaluator’s acceptance policy.     

农户对气候变化感知的有效性分析!——以江苏省水稻种植为例简

使用1980-2011年江苏省温度、降水量和风速的逐月资料以及2012年稻作区农户对气候变化感知的调研数据,检验了农户对气候变化感知的有效性,并使用排序数据模型分析了影响农户准确感知气候变化的因素。研究结果显示：1980年以来年江苏省不同地区的温度、降水量和风速的变化趋势均存在区域差异;农户对气候变化感知的平均有效性为78．22％,其中对温度上升趋势的感知准确度最高;感知有效性得分为1．42,说明农民基本上能够准确认知1～2个气象因子的变化趋势,但准确感知水平还有较大的提升空间;排序Probit模型的回归结果显示,是否参加村镇技术培训、农户文化程度、水稻种植规模和家庭非农收入对农民感知气候变化的有效性有显著的促进作用。     

从USPTO专利数据看中国手机产业技术优势

采用专利计量分析方法,选取美、日、韩3个手机产业强国为标杆,对中国手机产业技术优势进行了国际比较研究。从USPTO专利库中获取手机产业相关专利数据,对中、美、日、韩4国在手机技术领域的RTA、FGSI和CV值进行测定,并绘制相应的FGSI-RAT技术象限图进行分析。结果表明：与国际手机产业标杆国相比,中国手机产业在光学、半导体器件等技术领域存在技术优势,日、韩为中国手机产业发展中的主要参考学习与竞争对象,而美国表现出的疲态可为中国手机产业未来发展与转型提供借鉴。     

中国FDI宏观经济效应的一般均衡分析

文章从WEF对美国、英国、俄罗斯、波兰和中国制度建设情况的系统评估及比较出发,说明转型国家FDI宏观经济传导机制的特殊性,进而建立中国有FDI流入IS/LM/BP模型的新框架。认为在受到各种制度约束的情况下,中国FDI流入的国民收入效应仍然是确定的;但是,与发达市场经济国家相比,FDI促进中国国民收入的提高相对较少。以此为基础,提出了在中长期内缓解中国国际收支双顺差的理论基础和政策方向。     

Financial Constraints and the Extensive and Intensive Margin of Firm Exports: Panel Data Evidence from China

Some theoretical work suggests credit constraints to hamper exports while other work suggests that they deter firms' sales at large. Hence, credit constraints might reduce the export–sales ratio or not. This paper assesses the role of credit constraints for the export–sales ratio at the firm level. We explore this hypothesis empirically, using cross‐section and panel data on Chinese enterprises compiled by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. We approximate credit constraints by a firm's ratio of liquid debt to sales and, alternatively, the ratio of liquid assets to total assets. In particular, we estimate the impact of these financial fundamentals on the extensive and the intensive margins of firm‐level exports in two‐part fractional response models. Fixed effects panel regressions point to a negative relationship between export–sales ratios and credit constraints only at the extensive margin.