Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

Theory and practice of integrated impact assessment : The case of the western energy study

Four aspects of an applied technology assessment of western energy development are examined: the social and political context, the analytical approach, organization and management, and participation and utilization strategies. The value of technology assessments in addressing the uncertainties and value conflicts created by technological change depends in large part on organizational and management devices, particularly interdisciplinarity, external review, and participatory research strategies. While these approaches provide no guarantees, they help to compensate for inadequate theories and methodologies in providing integrated research findings.     

Collective Influence on Information Technology in Virtual Organizations-Emancipatory Management of Technology?

This contribution addresses the question of how to create an agency for emancipatory management of technology. Unions are suggested as a collective actor, since steps towards democratization and micro emancipation have few chances if they rely on management practitioners alone. Instead, unions, shop stewards and employees should acquire and demand elements of emancipatory management of technology on the basis of collective power rather than waiting for managers to change their praxis. The article looks at union activities related to virtual organizations in manufacturing companies. It is argued that although virtualization is modest, it still challenges traditional union strategies. Based on case material stemming from action-oriented research, a number of levels of possible influence and politicization are discussed ranging from the workplace to the national level, which unions can pursue in becoming a collective actor in the development of ICT and organizations.     

Collective Influence on Information Technology in Virtual Organizations-Emancipatory Management of Technology?

This contribution addresses the question of how to create an agency for emancipatory management of technology. Unions are suggested as a collective actor, since steps towards democratization and micro emancipation have few chances if they rely on management practitioners alone. Instead, unions, shop stewards and employees should acquire and demand elements of emancipatory management of technology on the basis of collective power rather than waiting for managers to change their praxis. The article looks at union activities related to virtual organizations in manufacturing companies. It is argued that although virtualization is modest, it still challenges traditional union strategies. Based on case material stemming from action-oriented research, a number of levels of possible influence and politicization are discussed ranging from the workplace to the national level, which unions can pursue in becoming a collective actor in the development of ICT and organizations.     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中的应用研究

目的多指标决策分析法作为一种重要的决策分析方法,其在卫生技术评价中的应用引起了国内外许多学者的关注。本文主要研究多指标决策分析在卫生技术评价中应用的可能性。方法选取多指标决策分析的两种类型,将其应用于具体的卫生技术评价案例中进行分析。结果在满足一定的假设条件下,多指标决策分析可以应用于卫生技术评价。结论在卫生技术评价中引用多指标决策分析,仍有许多相关问题有待深入研究和探索。     

Emerging technologies: quantitative identification and measurement

Emerging technologies present both challenges and opportunities for national technology strategies. National governments may therefore want to monitor the technological horizon on a systematic basis. This article outlines the quantitative approaches available for such monitoring. Among the standard types of bibliometric data, proposals and publications are most likely to be useful for this purpose since they capture information earlier in the cycle of technology development. Patents, in contrast, trail behind. Analysis can proceed with keywords or citations, and algorithms are available to use the information structure inherent in these kinds of data to identify and measure emerging areas. There are limitations, however, in all the available approaches and the authors therefore recommend using them in conjunction with expert methods by focusing the qualitative assessment in particular areas.     

Innovations in meta-analysis and social impact analysis relevant for tech mining

In the social sciences, non-utilization of knowledge is a major problem. Many publications stored in libraries or available on the Internet should be used more than they are now. Conventional approaches like providing abstracts and lists of keywords have proven to be insufficient. For more than thirty years already, meta-analysis is available for the accumulation and dissemination of scientific knowledge. In the social sciences, meta-analysis has been used on a limited scale only, mainly because there still remains a gap between the knowledge available and its application in policymaking. Recently, value transfer has been introduced as an additional method to bridge the gap between available knowledge and the demands for knowledge in new problem areas. Not only in the social sciences but also in the information sciences non-utilization of information is a major problem. It is the mission of tech mining to contribute to a mitigation of this non-utilization. In this article, we will show how tech mining could profit from innovations in meta-analysis and social impact assessment. Special attention will be paid to research on technology generations, research on social change in cohesive social systems showing solidarity at work, and tech mining in support of the Lisbon Strategy of the European Commission.     

Epistemological issues of technology assessment

The most important function of a technology assessment is to reduce the level of ignorance about the costs and benefits of technological changes. The distinction between technique and technology serves to focus on technology assessment as an analytical process for the study of the relations of technology, society, and public policies. Some of the epistemological issues that threaten the claim to legitimacy of this process are traced to competing theories of social and political changes. It is suggested that phronesis rather than value-free rational analysis is an appropriate model for technology assessment. The proper role of technological forecasting and public participation, two problematic activities, is discussed. It is concluded that technology assessment makes an important contribution to the political process in providing information from a broad perspective.     

Social assessment of technology and some of its international aspects

Search for some means of social management of technology has become a major concern for science and technology policy in recent years. Social Assessment of Technology (SAT) is considered as a potentially important instrument of this new orientation of policy. The concept of social assessment of technology leads to a reappraisal of the role of science and technology in a contemporary society, both with regard to policy, and to final objectives. It is a new approach to a better informed decision-making. Though it is of interest to all segments of the policy-making process, one would expect that social assessment of technology should be closely linked to technology policy. However, from the institutional point of view, technology has no place of its own. The term “technology” was only recently added to that of science in the relevant national government agencies. This is a purely formal link. To arrive at an operational outline of technology policy, a much deeper understanding of technology and the innovative process in general is still necessary.The lack of an appropriate institutional “niche” makes it particularly difficult to envisage technology assessment studies at an international level. The work accomplished by OECD is of interest, since it is the first experience of its kind. Theoretical and factual investigations had led to the publication of a comprehensive analysis, Society and the Assessment of Technology, and a report on Methodological Guidelines for Social Assessment of Technology. This was followed by an attempt to test the social assessment approach in applying it to real problems of interested member countries. International cooperation in the field of social assessment of technology is hampered by a number of major difficulties such as changing objectives of national policy, secrecy, race for a competitive advantage, insufficient diffusion and understanding of the concept itself, and the unwillingness or inability of decision-makers to consider middle- and long-term policies.     

The analysis of expert judgment

Expert judgment is a necessary component of technology assessment. But current methods for attempting to integrate expert judgment with social value judgments in the formation of public policy are inappropriate and ineffective. This article advocates the scientific analysis of experts' judgments. Such analysis produces quantitative, pictorial models of expert judgment, thereby providing an explicit and retraceable procedure for a) documenting and comparing reasons for differences in expert judgment, b) helping experts to resolve such differences, and c) conveying information to decision makers in a clear and useful fashion. The proposed approach provides an alternative to the ineffective method of public hearings and recently proposed adversarial approaches such as the “science court.” Two studies are described to illustrate this approach.     

Exploring the future of ecological genomics: Integrating CTA with vision assessment

Interactive approaches to technology development provide opportunities for the development of innovative technologies which clearly connect with social practices and address the positive and negative effects as perceived by relevant actors. The challenge is to start an interactive approach early in the development of new technologies, when many options are still open for exploration and there are good possibilities for steering. Early involvement of societal actors is, however, challenged by the absence of concrete applications on which they can develop their own visions from the perspective of their own needs, interests, norms and values. Integrating Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) with vision assessment is proposed as an approach to overcome this dilemma in the field of ecological genomics and bridge the knowledge gap between parties closely involved with ecogenomics research and other relevant actors. We present, evaluate and discuss the process of identifying guiding visions of the technology developers as a first step in this approach and end with some suggestions on how desirable futures for ecogenomics can subsequently be assessed from the perspectives of different actors.     

Pro-social Motivation and the Delivery of Social Services

This article provides an overview highlighting some major themesof the recent literature on the role of pro-social motivationin the provision of social services. We focus on the insightsobtained from two alternative ways of modelling pro-social motivation;action-oriented and output-oriented altruism. This literaturehas implications regarding the design of optimal incentives,the selection of motivated agents and its interaction with monetaryrewards, and the optimal organizational form required to exploitsuch motivations. We also discuss the implications for governmentprovision of social services from the perspective of a parallelliterature that emphasizes the non-contractible nature of output,and contrast it with the implications derived from work emphasizingthe role of pro-social motivation. (JEL codes: H11, J32, J45,L31, L33)     

跨国多期技术授权方式选择及社会福利分析--基于空间数量歧视竞争的框架

跨国技术授权作为企业获得竞争优势的重要途径已经受到理论界的关注。与以往的内部技术授权研究不同,文章构建了一个外国拥有技术的企业与东道国企业的空间数量歧视竞争模型,考察多期技术授权存在技术泄露、关税内生及空间竞争对外国拥有技术的企业的最优授权策略选择以及东道国社会福利的影响。研究表明：(1)外国拥有技术的企业偏好双重收费方式,且固定收费方式优于特许权收费方式;(2)双重收费方式不能同时实现拥有技术的企业和社会福利的最优,但可以实现社会福利的次优;(3)外国企业应该通过双重收费方式或固定收费方式进行技术授权,而东道国政府不应一味地提高关税水平,适当地降低进口关税有利于跨国技术授权的实现。文章的结论对于发展中国家的技术引进以及技术出口政策的制定具有一定的现实意义。     

Unveiling opportunities afforded by emerging technologies: evidences from the drone industry

In recent decades, researchers and practitioners have increasingly focused on how to develop breakthrough technologies. Notwithstanding this, companies still face the problem of understanding the opportunities enabled by technologies from the early stage of development. The technology management literature highlights that development is usually managed by adopting one of two approaches: normative or explorative. However, in using the latter approach focused on developing emerging technologies, unanswered questions remain. In particular, this paper aims to shed light on the strategies that companies adopt to unveil the opportunities enabled by emerging technologies. Analysing the drone industry using an exploratory case study approach, we investigate the strategies that companies implement to guide technology development to address more meaningful application fields. Using the Federal Aviation Administration database, we identify four possible strategies to develop emerging technologies: focus, deep, broad, and holistic.     

The generalized distance measures of technology

This paper presents a discriminant analytic framework for the measurement and assessment of technology. It circumvents entirely the problems associated with the other approaches to measurement of technology presented in the literature on technological forecasting and economic theory of quality change. The proposed framework is also capable of providing a whole new variety of systematic approaches to technology assessment. It has been pointed out that the present approach may be regarded as complementary to the dimensional analytical approach presented earlier by the author. In comparison of the two, the notion of process discriminant as distinguished from feature discriminant is advanced. A partial application of the framework to the illustrative case of piston-type aircraft technology is presented. The results of the study provide further support to the hypothesis that the majority of technological change occurs at the level of emperical rather than fundamental knowledge.     

Innovation Process 'Fuel Cell Vehicle': What Strategy Promises to be Most Successful?

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers' strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.     

Book reviews

This article takes as its point of departure the view that technological change is a social process involving negotiations between networks of players. The paper aims to inform the debate on technology management by identifying the dynamics of spaces and occasions where technological change is addressed and politicized. It takes as its focus the development of the information technology (IT) systems for manufacturing, known as Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems in Denmark. These systems, which started out 30 years ago as a visionary concept in the US, are now in daily use in Danish firms. This technology has been moulded by the twin forces of stability and negotiability, with the interplay of supplier and user constellations set out in the context of the relative stability of company social systems. The article discusses three spaces within which the social shaping of IT takes place: the user producer segments, the company internal scene and technological context with the competing pull of mass production of software and company customization. Strategic possibilities are shown to be of a shifting nature with the occasions shaping technology appearing both as ruptures and emergent options which are restricted by the strategies of participating players. Consequently no single player has a natural position to manage technological change and it is suggested that technology strategies should be subject to open debate and exchange of experiences from a multiplicity of positions and perspectives.     

Modes of biotechnology assessment in the USA, Japan and Denmark

Since the 1970s technology assessment by public bodies has become generally accepted as necessary. Modes of technology assessment differ from country to country, in terms of degree of institutionalization, acceptance by policy makers and level of public involvement, and these in turn depend on the goals, methods and organizational framework of the particular technology assessment. The varying social and political roles of technology assessment arise out of national political traditions and differing cultural views of technology. This article compares modes of biotechnology assessment in the USA, Japan and Denmark, focusing on the role of public discussion in the policy-making process. By analysing these three different contexts, the article seeks to uncover ways in which the cultural conditioning of technology policy takes place.     

Foresight in innovation policy: Shared visions for a science park and business–university links in a city region

Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for conventional cars with internal combustion engines. According to press releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile companies to fuel cell technology can be identified. These strategies match to a high degree the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing literature. A system dynamics model that reflects the beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to market) has been built. It examines the future prospects of the car manufacturers’ strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel infrastructure.