Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Devising futures for universities in a multi-level structure: A methodological experiment

Universities have traditionally been key players in producing and validating new scientific knowledge, but other actors have also become major research performers. Meanwhile, the notion of research has been extended considerably, and the environment of universities is also undergoing fundamental changes. Thus, it is timely to consider alternative futures for them, to be better prepared for their new roles. A review of recent works on the future of higher education shows that the starting point in these exercises is either an existing or an abstract university. This approach has three major shortcomings: (i) the broader socio-economic systems, in which universities operate, are not addressed in these analyses, and thus neither the potential changes in these broader settings, nor their impacts on higher education can be explored; (ii) the huge diversity of higher education systems and individual universities cannot be reflected; (iii) the role of other research actors, and more importantly, the links among universities and those other research players are often disregarded.

This article offers an alternative approach, using the case of EU universities as an example, to rectify these shortcomings. A set of ‘cascading’ visions are devised to demonstrate the close links between three levels. First, alternative futures are developed for the EU by considering (i) the overall rationale of EU policies; and (ii) the standing of the EU vis-à-vis the Triad. Second, the different directions are identified, in which the European Research and Innovation Area can evolve. Third, skipping the national level, futures are built for the universities themselves, focussing on their research activities.

The modest intention of the futures presented in this paper is to demonstrate how to use the proposed new approach, and initiate meaningful and lively dialogues among stakeholders. Their diverse accumulated knowledge and experience, as well as distinct viewpoints are indispensable for building policy-relevant visions. The proposed three-level structure of futures – or ‘cascading’ visions – offers several advantages for policy-makers at various levels, the stakeholders of universities, as well as academics interested in prospective analysis of innovation systems.     

Copyright reform and business model innovation: Regulatory propaganda at German music industry conferences

Inspired by new digital technologies, diverse actors in cultural and creative industries propagate conflicting visions of how to adequately innovate – or rather preserve and strictly enforce – copyright-related business models, which has resulted in substantial amounts of regulatory uncertainty. Looking at a decade of regulatory discourse at industry events in the popular music industry in Germany, we investigate how these actors make sense of and strategically shape this uncertainty in the process of industry transformation. Our longitudinal argumentative discourse analysis reveals cycles of regulatory propaganda of two discourse coalitions that do not engage in debate, but aim to find support for competing business models among regulators and the public. Organizing, canceling, and participating in industry events are discursive strategies used effectively to transport their claims by both industry lobbyists and challenging actors, but industry incumbents are failing to use these sites for testing out and introducing new business models. We conclude that regulatory struggles, not least at industry events, mediate between disruptive technologies and business model innovation.     

Foresight studies : A new approach in anticipatory policy making in the Netherlands

Selection and priority setting in technology policies become more and more urgent. Confronted with budget constraints, policy makers need planning methods for well-argued choices. But how can we assess technology fields of particular interest to our countries? Prospective analysis can help us. The author develops an empirical model for foresight studies as a tool in strategic decision making. It is based on a Dutch experiment in recent years and illustrates how several stakeholders in a nation can be mobilized to assess emerging technologies, develop a common field of reference in judging these technologies, and coordinate the joint actions of the actors in this field. Foresight seems to be a rather interactive planning method in which governments have to plan the process rather than the outcome. In reflection on action, the author makes clear that foresight can reduce complexity when it is a process of concerted action in which public and private actors operate as coproducers.     

Is the transport system becoming ubiquitous? Socio-technical roadmapping as a tool for integrating the development of transport policies and intelligent transport systems and services in Finland

This paper examines the main development characteristics within the transport system as we are approaching the ubiquitous phase of the information society. Particularly the challenges in designing transport policies on a rapidly evolving technological frontier are emphasised. The theoretical background of the paper stems from policy assessment as well as futures studies, especially from technology roadmapping. The paper presents a socio-technical roadmapping method as a tool to integrate the technology developments better with societal developments and transport policy design. The method is tested with a Finnish case study, which provides three thematic, complementary roadmaps of the potential transport system technology services of the future. The roadmaps illustrate what kind of technologies, services, actors and related policy relevant knowledge is needed in satisfying the demands of transport policy development in the future's ubiquitous society. The case study reveals several changes in the transport system: pluralised number of actor roles and actor networks in the system, emergence of a new kind of business and service layer because of the new dynamic inter-linkages between the actors, and further, possibility to capture the service layer with the concept of “technology service”. The changes require also re-conceptualisation of knowledge production to support transport policies. In conclusion, the socio-technical roadmapping holds great potentials as a tool for aligning technology development with transport policy development.     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Mapping the emerging field of genome editing

Targeted genetic modification (TagMo) technologies are being used for new approaches to genetic engineering often called ‘genome editing’. These approaches are in the early stages of development, and basic understandings of what TagMo is, of its likely future, and how it should be governed are still being established. In order to inform these discussions and increase their transparency, we map the scientific landscape of TagMo using advances in tech mining and bibliometrics and in consultation with experts in the field. We assess the sub-topics and disciplines associated with TagMo research, and the actors, institutions, and nations involved, while making observations about the funding of research and the collaborative patterns among actors. The technology assessment approach used in this article has important implications for anticipatory governance of TagMo plant products. It is designed to help scientists, managers, and policy-makers understand trends in TagMo technological development in order to prepare for future governance.     

Competition,variety and technological evolution: A replicator dynamics model

In this paper a model of technological evolution based on replicator dynamics is developed. Such a model is based on a twin characteristics representation of product technology and on a population approach. The model can give a general representation of technological evolution, but this paper concentrates on the relationship between variety and competition. Variety is considered to be a very important variable influencing economic development. By means of the characteristics and population approach adopted in this paper it is possible to distinguish between inter-and intra-technology competition. In this paper it is demonstrated that the variety of the system can only increase if intra-technology competition is more intense than inter-technology competition. Intuitively this implies that new technologies will only be able to emerge if incumbent technologies experience the competition coming from the new ones to be weaker than their own internal competition.     

Policy assessment and simulation of actor orientation for sustainable development

Understanding, assessing, and simulating behavior requires knowledge of the precepts that are explicitly or implicitly orienting behavior. Human actors can be viewed as (conscious) self-organizing systems attempting to remain viable in a diverse environment containing other self-organizing systems (other human actors, organisms, ecosystems, etc.), all driven by their own viability (sustainability) interests. These fundamental system interests, or basic orientors, have emerged in response to general environmental properties and are therefore identical across self-organizing systems: existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability, coexistence. Even in simulated actors learning to ‘survive’ in a difficult environment, the basic orientors emerge in the (simulated) evolutionary process — but different actors may evolve into different ‘cultural types’ with different orientor emphasis. Since balanced attention to all basic orientors is crucial for viability, the set of orientors can be used to derive indicators that facilitate comprehensive viability and sustainability assessments. The paper outlines the theoretical approach of ‘orientation theory’ and its application to the assessment and simulation of sustainable development issues. The formal approach of mapping indicators on basic orientors and assessing sustainability dynamics is illustrated using Worldwatch indicator time series. In an actor simulation this approach is used to successfully guide a small global model onto a sustainable path with high ‘quality of life’.     

关键核心技术产学研协同创新机理研究——以芯片光刻技术为例

产学研协同创新是突破关键核心技术“卡脖子”问题、实现科技自立自强的重要途径,但鲜有研究揭示面向关键核心技术创新的产学研协同机理。基于复杂系统管理理论,构建关键核心技术产学研协同创新机理系统框架,揭示产学研非线性互动协同创新规律,并以芯片光刻技术为例,借助社会网络分析法实证解析该框架。研究发现：(1)资源整合—主体交互—系统涌现是基于复杂系统管理视角提升产学研协同网络成效、加快关键核心技术突破的有效途径;(2)主导者—桥梁—辅助者权力分配规则能够有效促进多元主体在交互过程中通过嵌入性社会关系推动关键核心技术创新的价值增值;(3)模块化—松散耦合的网络结构能够消除主体间交互障碍、最大化结构红利,是产学研协同复杂网络在系统结构层面涌现的关键核心技术创新突破规律。最后,通过芯片光刻技术专利合作网络实证解析关键核心技术产学研协同创新机理,提出强化面向关键核心技术产学研协同创新、助力高水平科技自立自强的对策建议。     

Meanings and practices of learning from incidents: a social constructivist perspective of incident reporting systems

Incident reporting systems (IRSs) are used in many organisations as tools that promote safety by allowing to collectively learn from incidents. In this paper, we propose a social constructivist approach to learning from incidents, in which the focus is not purely on safety, but on the technology of incident reporting itself. We employ Wiebe Bijker’s work on the Social Construction of Technology to open up the analysis of a specific IRS in use at the Belgian Nuclear Research Center. For this purpose, we carried out 28 interviews with key local actors and collected documents and observation notes. Such social constructivist perspective provides detailed insight into the practices of reporting and the meanings of learning from incidents. Our research shows that various actors within the organisation frame the IRS differently. These framings each have their own implications for the vulnerability of the organisation.     

Science and industry: a theory of networks and paradigms

The recent interest in 'network' forms of organization serves as a starting point to understand better the dynamic characteristics of technology development. Network theory allows one to describe the relationship between 'actors' involved in the development of new technologies, both cross-sectionaily and longitudinally, and, as a consequence, to model the structural and behavioural developement of a community of actors (regardless of whether this 'community' is defined as a set of individuals, e.g. the 'scientific' community, or is defined as a collection of organizations, e.g. an industry). In this paper, this network approach is used to develope a theoretical framework to undersiand the knowledge transition from 'scientific' paradigm status to a 'technological' paradigm status. It is belived that the propositions made in this paper will enable truly empirical studies on the nature of the development of 'scientific' and 'technological' paradigms.     

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology

It is widely recognised that the world is facing climate challenges that necessitate transitions towards more energy-efficient buildings. A key challenge is that visions of energy efficient buildings in policies often fail to become aligned with existing local practices. In order to overcome such a gap between policy visions and their implementation in practice specific forms of strategic work is needed, according to new transformative ideas in spatial planning. The aim of this paper is to characterize the transformative capacities of this kind of strategic work at the spatial scale of the town in order to assess how such activities engage with sustainable transitions. The theoretical contribution of the paper is to compare strategic work performed in transformative forms of spatial planning with the strategic work intended in strategic niche management, which represent a change-management process for enabling transitions. The study outlines the proactive spatial planning of a Danish local authority in order to illustrate how the strategic work performed in this kind of local development project represents a special form of niche management that is able to create room for innovation and challenge existing socio-technical regimes in the building sector, but still different to typical strategic niche management processes. Based on this empirical study, the paper challenges the narrow focus on niches around technology development processes in strategic niche management by pointing towards niche planning in local development projects as another relevant context for niche management. However, as discussed in the paper, this assumes a more strategic form of planning than is often practised today, where more emphasis is put on how planning can contribute to promoting sustainable transitions.     

基于生态位的高技术产业演化结构分析

高技术产业与自然生物体一样,在它们生存与发展的过程中共同创造出自己的生态位资源空间。高技术产业生态位竞争研究的根本问题是高技术产业自身所处的生态环境以及采取适应该生态环境的经营管理对策的研究。高技术产业系统作为一个多因子系统,对高技术产业系统演化起主要作用的是产品、资源以及技术,它们构成高技术产业系统的核心要素,相对应形成了高技术产业市场生态位、高技术产业资源生态位和高技术产业技术生态位。高技术产业在发展过程中应当立足自身实力和优势,分析环境的特点以及产业与环境的协调关系,利用产业的能动性,依据行业发展态势和经济发展态势,构建适合自身的生态位,选择适当的生态策略。     

Expectations as a key to understanding actor strategies in the field of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles

Due to its environmental impact, the mobility system is increasingly under pressure. The challenges to cope with climate change, air quality, depleting fossil resources imply the need for a transition of the current mobility system towards a more sustainable one. Expectations and visions have been identified as crucial in the guidance of such transitions, and more specifically of actor strategies. Still, it remained unclear why the actors involved in transition activities appear to change their strategies frequently and suddenly. The empirical analysis of the expectations and strategies of three actors in the field of hydrogen and fuel cell technology indicates that changing actor strategies can be explained by rather volatile expectations related to different levels. Our case studies of the strategies of two large car manufacturers and the German government demonstrate that the car manufacturers refer strongly to expectations about the future regime, while expectations related to the socio-technical landscape level appear to be crucial for the strategy of the German government.     

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

Models of governance for converging technologies

The development of converging technologies (CTs) closely interacting with the human body might become one of the great challenges for science and technology governance in the years to come. This paper compares the visions and recommendations on CT policies by Roco and Bainbridge with those of the high-level expert group in the EU (authored by Nordmann), and documents differences in their respective conceptualizations of uncertainty, complexity and the future. While Roco and Bainbridge argue for the urgency of technological development, Nordmann recommends a thorough social process of upstream public participation in the framing of the technological goals to be achieved. However, a tension is seen in the Nordmann report regarding the role of public resistance in the development of technology.     

Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

The Story-lines of Technological Change: Innovation,Construction and Appropriation

The paper contrasts three story-lines of technological change, which represent three different ways to think about technology as a social process. Each story-line, or discourse, or narrative strategy, has its own special terminology and is derived from particular academic fields and intellectual traditions. And each has different ways of considering the forms of social agency that are relevant in relation to technological change. For the story-line of innovation, the relevant agents are the producers of commercial products, often referred to as systems of innovation; for the story-line of construction, agency is conceptualized as those particular actors that have an interest in a particular artifact and its promulgation. For the story-line of appropriation, the social agency is differentiated into various user communities. When we analyze the relations between technology and society, it is important to know which kind of story we are telling and which story-line, or narrative strategy we are following.     

Technology, Work Restructuring and the Orchestration of a Rational Narrative in the Pursuit of 'Management Objectives': The Political Process of Plant-level Change

In this article a narrative approach is used in the construction of a story about the political aspects of plant-level change. It is shown how different individuals may recount and reconstruct stories which reflect their own interests and how the maintenance of common organizational stories often reflects the influence and political action of certain powerful actors and groups. These dominant narrators are often actively involved in a political process by which a rational narrative is constructed, revised and modified over time and sustained within the context of other competing voices and views. In examining the uptake of cellular manufacturing, technology is not conceptualized as a determinant of outcomes but as a substance of the workplace initiative which is continually open to influence (the mutual shaping of the 'social' and 'technical') during the political process of change. Finally, a broad conceptualization of political process is adopted in order to enable the reader to critically reflect on the data in pursuing their own analysis and conclusions.