Driving forces of chemical risks for the European biodiversity

In the framework of the EU-funded research project ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks with tested Methods), an original method combining the DPSIR (driving forces–pressures–state–impacts–responses) framework and an analysis based on the distinction between the four spheres of sustainability (environmental, economic, social and political) has been developed. This paper presents the application of this method, called “the tetrahedral DPSIR” for the identification and analysis of driving forces of environmental chemicals risks for biodiversity, in Europe. The purpose of this methodology is to help reduce the pressures on biodiversity through modifying the driving forces behind them by offering scientific advice to policy makers. We frame our analysis in the context of the current policy, namely the implementation of REACH (Regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of CHemicals).     

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach

Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to biodiversity and the functions of ecosystems. The stress on biodiversity is far beyond the levels imposed by the natural global climatic changes occurring in the recent evolutionary past. It includes temperature increases, shifts of climate zones, melting of snow and ice, sea level rise, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. Natural systems are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socio-economic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyses observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses. The latter can be divided into mitigation and adaptation measures. Both strategies are needed, mitigation in order to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and adaptation in order to adjust to changes that have already occurred or cannot be avoided. One mitigation option, increased biofuel production, which is also a response to oil depletion, would change land use patterns and increase human appropriation of net primary production of biomass, thereby threatening biodiversity. By considering the first order and second order impacts of climate change on biodiversity when developing policy measures, it will be possible to integrate ecosystem and biodiversity protection into decision-making processes.     

Multi-level driving forces of biological invasions

Biological invasions are human-induced processes affecting biodiversity. Information on biological invasions can be organized following the categories of the DPSIR model. This paper examines the state of the art in the application of this model to the study and management of biological invasions.The paper focuses on driving forces and pressures, clarifying the different levels at which drivers operate and promote invasion processes. Identifying driving forces is necessary not only to understand the processes behind biological invasions but also to generate policy initiatives that address threats to biodiversity at different levels of governance. Thus driving forces and pressures on biological invasions are identified taking into account the multi-level character of such processes. The final section reviews the role that different stakeholders play in biological invasion management and finally elaborates a list of indicators derived from the analysis that can be used in decision making concerning invasion processes.     

An empirical, small scale ‘Traded–Nontraded Goods’ model for New Zealand

In this paper, an empirical model of the traded–nontraded goods model was built in order to examine the effect of various policy variables on the real exchange rate and resulting impacts on the variation in industrial supply, demand and employment levels. This framework was also built to search and simulate alternative policy settings to 1984 economic reforms of New Zealand, that would possibly decrease the short-term adjustment costs of 1984 reforms. It was found that, particularly the output contraction and employment loss in exportable industries, would have been lower if the liberalization in the exportable and importable industries had followed similar timing.     

Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed.     

Economic valuation of the vulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline

There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price elasticities of − 1.5 to − 0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories - namely fruits, vegetables, and stimulants - will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does not take into account the strategic responses of the markets.     

Monetary policy in Germany: A cointegration analysis on the relevance of interest rate rules

The paper attempts to identify an empirical relationship that characterizes the way the Bundesbank adjusted its short-term rate with respect to various objectives. By building on a careful exploration of the properties of the variables involved, it is established that interest rate rules —often remarkably similar to the Taylor rule— remain valid and relevant in a Vector Error Correction framework, and thereby proposing a distinctive interpretation of German monetary policy during the period 1975–1998.     

The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on output in the three largest euro area economies – Germany, France and Italy (EMU3) – by applying a new VAR identification procedure. The results show that monetary policy innovations are at their most potent in Germany. However, apart from Germany, it remains ambiguous as to whether a rise in interest rates concludes with a fall in output, showing a lack of homogeneity in the responses. Homogeneity in response to a monetary shock is crucial in a one-size-fits-all framework. Nonetheless, the lack of similarity between the responses, which is hypothesised to cause de-synchronised business cycles in optimal currency area literature, is often based on the premise that monetary policy itself is a major source of business cycle fluctuations. This paper concludes that monetary policy innovations play, at most, a modest role in generating fluctuations in output for the EMU3. Consequently, it is less important whether the effects of monetary policy are homogenous.     

Is Private R & D Spending Sensitive to Its Price? Empirical Evidence on Panel Data for Italy

In this paper empirical evidence is presented on theelasticity of private R & D spending on its price. Acensored panel-data regression model with random effectsis applied to a balanced panel of 726 Italian firms overthe 1992–1997 period. Implied estimates point out thatItalian firms' response to policy measures (including taxcredits), aimed at reducing the user cost of R & D capital,is likely to be substantial (1.50–1.77). Furthermore, wealso find that the elasticity of R & D spending is higherin recession (2.01) than in expansion (0.87).     

An open economy model of the effects of unilateral environmental policy by a large developing country

In this paper, we pose the following question. Why is it that despite the universal recognition of the need for global environmental protection, developing countries have been lax in instituting stringent environmental regulations? Addressing this question from an economic standpoint, we show that there are plausible theoretical circumstances in which a large developing country can be worse off if it chooses to implement environmental policy in an uncoordinated fashion. The empirical dimension of this question is stressed and the key parameters – such as elasticities and marginal propensities to consume – which are germane to any policy discussion regarding this issue are identified. Second, we study – once again from the perspective of a large developing country – the possibility of using the domestic tax structure optimally to attain environmental policy objectives in a second-best environment. This scenario involves taxing pollution indirectly, by using product taxes. Finally, keeping the empirical dimension of the question in mind, we show how to compute optimal externality correcting taxes. These taxes are primarily a function of different kinds of elasticities.     

Towards an integrated framework for analysing sustainable innovation policy

An integrated framework for the analysis of sustainable innovation policy was developed, based on a combination of the transition management (TM) framework, the strategic niche management approach, and policy recommendations, resulting from technological innovation system (TIS) studies. In the framework, the multi-level view from TM has been integrated with the functions approach from the TIS literature. The integrated policy framework shows that specific policy goals and measures can be found at the specific points of intervention related to (the interfaces between) landscape, regime, TIS and niches. The integrated framework suggests that stimulation of a TIS only makes sense when this action is well aligned with landscape and regime developments. The framework should be used in empirical studies for further testing and refinement.     

中国省域高质量绿色发展水平评价与演化

基于DPSIR模型建立高质量绿色发展评价指标体系,运用熵权法和探索性空间数据分析技术对2013—2017年中国省域高质量绿色发展水平进行实证研究,分析其发展水平与时空演化情况,并从“环境状态”和“环境响应”两个维度进行分类。结果表明:考察期内中国高质量绿色发展水平整体呈现逐年上升趋势;从各省区数据来看,其高质量绿色发展水平高低、驱动因素与薄弱环节存在显著差异,可以分为“成熟发展型”“趋于成熟型”“快速发育型”“雏形发育型”四种类型;从空间格局上,各省区之间存在明显的正向空间自相关,形成“扩散效应型”和“低速增长型”两大空间聚集区。     

Minimac : A small integrated model of the financial and real sectors of the Swedish economy

The model emphasizes the financial part of the economy and the channels through which the central bank and the government can affect it. The model combines a complete flow of fund matrix with an income–expenditure scheme in a common framework. The consistency of the flow of funds matrix is achieved through residual determination of one asset/liability from each financial balance identity. The model describes the Swedish credit market after the abolition of credit market regulation. Thus the policy instruments included comprise – among others – the interest rate scale, the cash reserve requirement, the exchange rate, government consumption and differential tax rates but no direct regulation of bank advances or investment in government securities. The model mechanisms are illustrated with policy simulations. Those display, in some instances, processes which after some periods tend to reverse the intended effects of the original policy measure. They therefore point to the need for a strategy which involves a sequential use of several policy instruments.     

Cost efficient pesticide reductions: A study of Sweden

The minimum cost for reducing the farmers' use of pesticides is calculated. The measures include are; (i) a decrease in use of inputs, (ii) an improvement of the insurance system, and (iii) application of an ecotechnology where 5–10 meters along the borders of the fields are left untreated with pesticides. The cost of reducing the use of pesticides is measured by means of pesticide demand functions and the cost for improving an insurance system is measured as the risk premium. The empirical results indicate that the minimum cost for reducing the use of pesticides by 50% in Sweden corresponds to about 6 per cent of farmers' incomes from crop production. A simple comparison of policy instruments shows that the cost of a quota system is about 40 per cent higher than the costs of the charge and permit market systems. The farmers' decreases in incomes under a charge system are twice as high as under the other two policy instruments. The results are, however, sensitive to the levels of the pesticide price elasticities.     

Implications of market orientation on the environmental transformation of industrial firms

This article examines the role of industrial firms' market orientation as a moderator of the economic-ecologic conflict. Specifically, the authors consider the effect of industrial firms’ market orientation on perceptions of the environmental pressure exerted by stakeholders and the environmental practices implemented in response to that pressure. Because market orientation is related to the collection and assessment of and response to opportunities and threats, market orientation should act as a driver of perceptions of and responses to environmental pressures exerted by stakeholders. An empirical analysis of a sample of Spanish industrial firms shows that market orientation is linked to more intense perceptions of pressure from nongovernmental stakeholders. However, the results are not conclusive with respect to the relationship between market orientation and the intensity of the response to environmental pressures characterized by the implementation of environmental practices.     

Bio-economic modelling of soil erosion externalities and policy options: a Tunisian case study

Soil erosion is one of the most important of today’s environmental externalities and a major threat to sustainability of agricultural system. It constitutes the most widespread forms of land degradation throughout the world. The aim of this paper is to estimate the amount of soil erosion generated by the current cropping systems in Tunisia and to assess the economic and ecological impacts of policy instruments designed to handle this problem. The analysed policy options are based on soil conservation practices and direct incentive farming anti-erosive measures. The selected measures are the reduction of tillage, the avoidance of bare fallow and the use of legume-based crop rotation. A bio-economic modelling framework coupling the biophysical model EPIC to a non-linear dynamic programming farm model was used for this impact analysis. It was performed in a set of representative farms belonging to a region in North-Eastern Tunisia (Zaghouan) strongly affected by this phenomenon. The main finding of this research is the non-convexity of the crop yield—soil erosion space. That is, the use of more intensive techniques to increase productivity (i.e. crop yield) may be accompanied by rough changes in soil erosion (damage) curves, manifested either by non-monotony or non-convexity. In term of policy options and because of giving up convexity assumptions, incentive anti-erosive measures appear more efficient than conventional environmental policies such as Pigouvian taxes or quota systems. The implementation of soil conservation practices would leads to a net decrease in soil erosion and an increase in farm income. However, with the current interest rate of 7% the possible rise in income is not enough to stimulate farmers to invest on these practices. A maximum rate of 4% would be necessary to make this policy option more effective.     

Forest policy for sustainable commodity wood production: an examination drawing on the Australian experience

This paper presents a policy framework aimed at sustainability in Australia's wood-based industry. It commences with a historical overview to illuminate how culture and environment combined to fast-track Australia's plantation establishment. This maturing estate is now generating new choices about meeting wood needs and the future for native forests. The essence of the forest problem lies in the nature of commodity production where cost reduction, essential for the firm's survival, comes at the expense of native forest ecological integrity. The framework explicitly includes Australia's plantation wood resource that, by definition, is excluded from the ‘multiple use’ approach to managing native forests for wood production. Three systems are identified—native forests as self-regenerating ecosystems, wood production systems to meet human material needs and rural socio-economic systems—and a dual strategy developed to enhance their persistence capacity. This strategy combines shifting commodity wood production from native forests to plantations and adding value by domestic processing. The strategy works in a complementary way across the three systems, meaning that trade-off is avoided at this level. Native forest ecosystems cease to be threatened by the intensification pressures inherent in commodity production and relatively labour-intensive wood products manufacturers enhance their competitiveness by processing agriculturally grown wood. A highly integrated regional industry can enhance the economic viability of wood growing that helps buffer agricultural land against the price-cost squeeze of commodity production. The policy framework may not be economically efficient if, after removing government subsidies and props to the older and less competitive native forest based sector, further measures are required to stimulate investment in plantation processing. Under these conditions, a specific wood industry policy can be argued on environment grounds. Trade-off is between market interventionist industry policy and general economic efficiency—fundamentally different to the native forest conservation versus industry trade-off commonly understood.     

Examining Trends of Criteria Air Pollutants: Are the Effects of Governmental Intervention Transitory?

Despite its growth in other areas of economics,time series econometric methods have not beenwidespread in the area of environmental andresource economics. We illustrate one use oftime series methods by examining the time pathof US nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emission dataover the period 1900–1994. The analysishighlights that proper time series methods canaid in optimal regulatory policy as well asdeveloping empirical verification of theoriesput forth to explain economic phenomena. Inaddition, several interesting results emerge. First, we find that the emissions seriescontains both a permanent and random component. Second, if one attributed all of the emissionsreductions to regulatory policy, interventionanalysis suggests that the 1970 Clean Air Act(CAA) did not merely have transitory effects,but permanently influenced the NO_xemission path. In terms of total regulatoryimpact, an upper bound on the emissions saveddue to the 1970 CAA is in the range of27%–48%.