PFI与BOT项目融资模式比较及应用探索

PFI和BOT都是项目融资中的典型模式,都属于PPP模式的范围,是解决政府财政资金在公共基础设施建设上投资不足的重要途径.本文从产生背景、概念界定、组织结构、应用领域等方面对两种模式进行了比较研究,分析了两种模式的优缺点,最后提出了我国实施PFI和BOT需要解决的问题及措施.     

PPP的认识误区与公共服务改革

通过查阅大量国外文献,试图厘清公私合作(PPP)的家族谱系,纠正对PPP、BOT、PFI等融资模式的误解。通过论述政府采购的特征,阐明PPP不是政府投资而是政府公共服务采购。根据我国PPP的发展阶段以及政府在各类PPP模式中发挥的作用,提出公共服务改革的10项建议。     

英国开展公私合作伙伴关系的经验及借鉴

正英国是较早采用PPP模式开展基础设施建设的国家,从20世纪70年代末开始,英国对电力、电信、自来水和煤气供应等进行了大规模民营化改革,但考虑到民营化改革的影响和冲击,在英国提供公共服务最重要的领域——教育、医疗等却没有选择民营化。1990年梅杰接任撒切尔夫人后,由于面临经济衰退,公共支出不断扩大,1992年首次提出了私人融资计划(PFI)。PFI是购买公共服务的一个重要技术,但只是PPP模式中众多采购方法的其中一种,PFI占英国整体公共部门投资的11%。目前,为了降低项目风险,提高公共部门权益,保证项     

评英国PFI改革的新成果PF2

简要阐述了英国PFI的历史和改革历程,综述了PF2对PFI的改革要点,并提出了对PF2的评论性意见。     

金融支持城镇化建设模式研究——基于公私合营(PPP/PFI)项目融资的视角

“十二五”时期,是我国推进城镇化的关键时期.城镇化建设的主要矛盾在于资金供给远远不能满足资金需求的矛盾.当前的城镇化融资模式主要有银行贷款、信托基金、开发性金融支持等方式.但这些方式各有局限性,在城镇化建设实践中无法依赖任何单一方式进行融资.公私合作项目融资方式是一种近年来在国外广泛运用的融资模式,但在国内由于政策、体制和观念上的原因应用有限.本文将PPP/PFI融资模式与开发性金融支持城镇化建设等现有融资模式进行有机融合,构建了一种适合我国现阶段城镇化建设需要的融资模式.该模式有效地发挥了地方政府、企业、金融市场和开发性金融等各方面的作用,为解决现阶段城镇化建设融资困境提供一种较好的思路.     

以PPP模式推动“一带一路”建设的思考北大核心SSCI

“一带一路”沿线发展中国家大多基础设施建设落后。严重制约了其经济发展。“一带一路”倡议将设施联通作为合作重点之一,为社会资本参与沿线国家基础设施建设提供了诸多机遇。PPP模式将社会资本引入基建领域,既可以弥补资金缺口,又可以为发展中国家带去先进的技术和管理经验,是值得推广的合作模式。本文总结了沿线发展中国家PPP模式的发展现状和特点,分析了在沿线发展中国家开展PPP模式面临的主要风险,并从政府层面、行业层面、企业层面对中国企业在沿线发展中国家开展PPP模式提出政策建议。     

PFI项目融资:英国和日本模式的比较研究

本文对英国和日本的PFI项目融资模式进行了比较研究,一方面总结了它们的共性,即PFI的内涵;另一方面,分析了两种模式在管理体制、资金支持、项目监督、专业咨询等方面的特点与差异.同时,指出了两国的成功经验对我国推广PFI的启示.     

基于多视角的PFI项目风险评估研究

PFI（Private Finance Initiative）是目前发达国家广泛推行的一种新的民营资本参与公共投资的项目建设管理模式。政府在确定PFI项目的时候,需要考虑众多因素,从不同角度客观论证项目的可行性。这其中,项目的风险是PFI项目决策时必须考虑的问题。PFI项目相对于传统公共项目而言,风险体系的建立、风险评估的方法都会有其特殊性。同样的风险对于不同的主体会产生不同的影响。本文建立了PFI项目的风险评估指标体系,并且在利益相关者分析的基础上,综合三大主要利益相关者——政府公共部门、SPC、使用者（公众）的群体意见,运用基于格栅获取的模糊Borda数方法实现了PFI项目风险的多视角评估。对多个备选PFI项目中进行多视角评估,可实现项目决策的优先排序;对单一项目进行多视角评估,可反映项目的风险水平;最后通过算例验证该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。PFI模式在我国适逢良好的发展机遇,相关的理论研究正成为热点,风险管理就是其中的一大方面,对此所作的探讨是必须且有意义的。     

水利建设项目中引入PFI模式的研究

PFI模式是源自英国为鼓励私人资本参与公共项目的融资模式。我国目前已在上海外环隧道采用该模式进行了运作。讨论了在我国新的水利产业法的条件下 ,水利项目中引入PFI模式的可行性和需要解决的问题。提出应该在法律制度环境、人才培养、市场环境等方面促进PFI模式在我国水利项目中的应用     

PPP模式在我国保障性住房中的应用研究

随着我国在公共产品与服务的供给中,对于社会资本所发挥的作用的日益重视.PPP模式作为一种政府部门与社会资本合作的机制,得到了社会广泛的关注与试点实践.相较于传统的公共产品与服务提供方式,PPP模式通过引入社会资本竞争、建设与运营,具有更高的效率,且能在一定程度上减轻政府财政负担.将PPP模式引入我国保障性住房中,对于增加保障房供给数量,破解资金来源不足,提高运营效率等方面均具有重要的意义.本文阐述了PPP模式与保障性住房的基本概念,对我国公共租赁住房PPP项目的运作模式、操作程序进行了说明并探究了推进我国保障性住房应用PPP模式的四点关键.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.