保险精算方法在新型期权定价中的应用

本文利用公平保费原则和价格过程的实际概率测度-保险精算方法给出了欧式新型期权的定价公式,包括欧式双向期权、外汇期权以及可转换债券的定价.     

标的资产服从不对称跳扩散过程的期权VAR计算

期权因为涉及到对标的资产未来的价格预测，风险价值VAR的计算本质上是和标的资产的价格过程是联系在一起的，因此，标的资产的价格模型会影响到VAR的计算。本文在股票价格服从不对称跳扩散过程下给出欧式期权的VAR的计算方法。     

基于MATLAB的Black-Scholes-Merton欧式期权定价模型的计算研究

本文以Black-Scholes-Merton期权定价公式为研究对象,利用MATLAB的求导功能求得了Black-Scholes-Merton期权定价敏感性指标的计算公式.从MATLAB金融衍生产品工具箱中各个求解函数的M源文件的算法结构出发进行追源,发现了MATLAB金融衍生产品工具是基于Black-Scholes-Merton期权定价模型设计的,并指出了MATLAB金融衍生产品工具箱的默认计算对象是有红利支付的Black-Scho-les-Merton模型,而非红利为零的Black-Scholes模型.最后,在Notebook环境下调用金融衍生工具箱中相关命令编写了一个“Black-Scholes-Merton欧式期权定价模型及其敏感性指标通用计算模板”,成功实现了在Word中进行欧式期权价格及其敏感性指标的快捷计算.     

基于异质理念的欧式股票期权价格模型

著名的B-S期权定价方法以及随后的鞅方法等都秉承了经典经济学的代表性经济人分析范式,忽视了人的行为本身所具有的异质特征,导致了理论模型与实际相悖诸多疑难.本文充分考虑投资者的异质理念,引入能够代表不同投资者情绪的参数,给出个体对欧式无红利看涨和看跌期权价格的预期.理论和实证分析显示,对看涨期权,参数越小于零,投资者越乐观,他的预期价格越高;参数越大于零,投资者越悲观,他的预期价格越低;参数等于零, “理性”投资者的预期价格与B-S公式一致.由于个体的预期价格与市场价格不尽相同,通过比较两者,投资者可以决定是否参与交易或进入多/空头.这样由于投资者间异质理念的存在,形成了交易,解释了期权交易的存在.     

使用拟蒙特卡罗模拟的欧式看涨期权的定价

传统蒙特卡罗模拟使用伪随机数序列 ,而拟蒙特卡罗模拟采用的是完全确定的拟随机数序列 (又称低差异数序列 )进行模拟。本文对比了低差异序列与伪随机数序列的统计特点 ,应用两种模拟方法对欧式期权的价格进行了模拟计算。实验结果显示拟蒙特卡罗模拟在计算精度高于传统蒙特卡罗模拟 ,并且计算速度也更快     

B—S期权定价法在高新技术企业价值评估中的改进与测算过程

在明晰期权概念的基础上,揭示了期权内在价值和价格的性质。通过大量实证研究将B—S模型分别针对长、短期期权进行改进,主要涉及期权有效期和企业红利政策的影响,并说明了红利收益率y的确定过程和波动率σ的计算方法。在改进后给出了模型的实用案例分析和计算实现,使期权定价更为实用、简单和程序化。     

基于TSOPM模型的两状态期权定价

文章主要阐述了基本两状态期权定价模型(Two-State Option Pricing Model, TSOPM)。该模型在数学上是比较简单的,但能运用到很多复杂的期权定价问题中去。TSO PM没有使用随机微分方程的求解,而是从代数方法中得到结论。首先,文章给出模型的数学表达,并阐述其在简单形式期权定价问题中的运用;其次,讨论了模型的统计特征,说明了模型中的参数如何估计并运用于实际问题的求解;最后,将模型运用于无分红、有分红股票的欧式与美式看涨期权、看跌期权的定价问题。此外,文章还将模型运用于其他估值问题:一个含有息票支付债券的公司,对其股权和债券进行估值;债务证券的期权估值;固定利率银行贷款承诺的定价。在附注中,还运用两状态接近法推导了Black-Scholes公式。     

中国权证市场理论价格与实际价格差异分析

中国权证市场近年得到了快速发展,但仍存在诸多问题,如何进行合理的价值评估就是其中一个方面。Black—Scholes期权定价公式作为期权定价的经典方法,其有效性在发达国家已得到验证。本文通过比较中国权证市场上交易品种的理论价格和实际价格的差异,并分析相关的影响因素,来为中国权证市场的追一步完善提出自己的建议。     

美式看涨——看跌期权在支付红利情况下的价差估计式

在标的资产支付红利的情况下，欧式看涨一看跌期权平价公式已经问世，但由于美式期权可以在到期日之前的任何时刻实施，所以讨论美式期权在分红情况下的平价关系尤为复杂并且具有很强的应用价值。扩展了最初欧式看涨～看跌期权平价公式，给出了在支付红利情况下，美式看涨一看跌期权价差的估计范围，这个结论给美式期权的定价提供了理论范围，如果美式看涨期权和美式看跌期权定价的价差范围不满足St-Dt-K≤C^At-P^At≤St-Ke^-r（T-t），那么必然存在套利机会。     

平方根双币种权证之创新及定价

随着国际资本市场日趋一体化和我国已加入WTO，设计结构简单且具有较低权利金的双币种金融产品对于吸引国际投资者的兴趣，提高券商的核心竞争力至关重要。设计出所谓的平方根双币种欧式期权，用鞅定价方法求出其精确的定价公式，并用模拟的方法对平方根双币种欧式期权和Reiner(1992)的双币种欧式期权的避险功能进行比较。结论表明：与Reiner的双币种欧式期权相比，平方根权证具有降低权利金和易于避险的功能。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.