Long‐Term Impact of Minimum Wages on Workers’ Careers: Evidence from Two Decades of Longitudinal Linked Employer–Employee Data

We analyze the impact of high youth minimum wages, relying on two decades of linked employer–employee data and a major law change. Alternative treatment/control groups follow from two strands of the literature, one tracking low‐skilled workers employed before the law change, who are eligible for a large wage increase, and one tracking the employment of full cohorts, whether working or in school when the law changed. High minimum wages led to a short‐term wage gain, which faded over time. They did not jeopardize employment prospects. Changes in the hours worked by part‐time workers point to increased job attachment.     

Duration of disability,job mismatch and employment outcomes

Workers with disabilities have functional limitations that affect their productivity in some, but not necessarily all, jobs. Workers who find a job that is a good match for their functional limitations (i.e. a job where their limitations have little or no impact on important job functions) should expect better employment outcomes (e.g. higher wages, longer job tenure) than workers with similar disabilities who are mismatched in their jobs. Merging data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation with O*Net data on job demands, we construct two continuous measures of job mismatch for workers with physical disabilities. We then extend the literature on disability and employment by exploring relationships between duration of disability, job mismatch, wages and hours worked. The results indicate that workers with long durations of disability are employed in jobs that are a better match to their physical limitations than are similar workers with shorter durations of disability. And, workers who are mismatched earn lower wages and work fewer hours than their counterparts whose jobs are a better match. Overall, the findings suggest that disability employment policies should include systematic efforts to help workers with disabilities find good job matches.     

THE DECLINE IN MALE EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA: A COHORT ANALYSIS

We use Census data to investigate the sources of the decline in the level of employment of working age males in Australia in recent decades. Alternative measures of the male employment rate are considered before settling on two complementary measures: the full‐time employment rate and the full‐time equivalent employment rate. The latter measure weights part‐time jobs according to the fraction of a full‐time job they represent. Models of the determinants of these two employment rates are estimated using data from the Censuses conducted between 1971 and 2001. We construct a pseudo panel by ‘stacking’ the seven Census data sets ( Deaton, 1997 ; Kapteyn, et al., 2005 ). This facilitates the tracing of birth cohorts over time, in turn making it possible to control for cohort unobserved heterogeneity that may bias cross‐sectional estimates of effects of other characteristics, in particular age and year/time period. We produce evidence that a number of factors have contributed to the decline in male employment, including the decline in couple households with dependent children, growth in income taxes and welfare replacement rates and changes in the structure of labour demand away from traditionally male‐dominated industries. We also find that, all else (observable) constant, more recent birth cohorts have no lower – and possibly higher – employment rates than earlier birth cohorts.     

Earnings Instability and Tenure

We study the effect of tenure on earnings instability in Italy using the reforms of temporary employment contracts, which affected the average tenure of workers differentially across cohorts. We develop a model of earnings dynamics, and we exploit the variation of tenure and instability over time and across birth cohorts to estimate policy‐relevant parameters. Our results indicate that each year of tenure on the job reduces earnings instability by 11 percent; the drop is faster in the first three years of the match. Workers on a temporary contract have an earnings instability up to 100 percent higher than workers on a permanent contract.     

POLICY ANALYSIS IN A MATCHING MODEL WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS*

The large differences in hours of work across rich countries reflect large differences in both employment to population ratios and hours per worker. We imbed the canonical model of labor supply into a matching model to produce a model with operative intensive and extensive margins, and assess the implications of several policies for changes along the two margins. Tax and transfer policies lead to decreases along both margins, whereas regulations that increase the cost of creating or maintaining a job may lead to decreases in employment, but necessarily lead to increases in hours per worker.     

A better job thanks to personal networks? An evaluation for migrants who arrived in France before age 18

It is more difficult for migrants than natives to find a job in their host country, so many of them have to accept, at least temporarily, a job that is below their level of qualification. This represents a waste of human capital for society and can undermine social cohesion. Relying on social relationships might help them to bypass some of the obstacles that prevent them from finding a job that matches their skillset. We focus on migrants who arrived in France before the age of 18 years, who were educated entirely or partially in France. We use the rich French Trajectories and Origins dataset for 2009 to study the impact of personal contacts on the quality of the current employment. We measure the job quality using an indicator based on the educational requirement for a given occupation. To address the endogeneity between our dependent variable (holding a suitable job or not) and the variable of interest (employment found through a personal contact or not), we use the variable ‘sibling(s) in France’ as an instrument: this variable influences an individual’s probability of finding a job through contacts but does not influence directly the quality of the employment. Our results indicate that for these migrants, finding a job through personal contacts strongly and positively impacts the occupational status attained: it raises both women’s and men’s probability of holding a suitable job by more than 0.40 points.     

Gross job flows in Ukraine

This paper documents and analyses gross job flows and their determinants in Ukraine using a dataset of more than 2200 Ukrainian firms operating in manufacturing and non‐manufacturing for the years 1998–2000. Job destruction dominates job creation in both 1999 and 2000. Another clear‐cut result of our analysis is the strong positive effect of new private firms on net employment growth. We also find an inverse relationship between job reallocation and size for both manufacturing and non‐manufacturing, while only in the latter sector is employment growth inversely related with size. The main focus of the paper is the effect of trade flows on employment adjustment in manufacturing. Our results show that both employment growth and job reallocation at the firm and two‐digit sector level are affected by strong exposure to import competition and product market competition in export markets. These effects are more pronounced when we consider trade flows to the world at large and to the EU than when the analysis is based on trade flows to the CIS. JEL Classifications: E24, F14, J63, P23.     

WAGES,HOURS OF WORK AND JOB SATISFACTION OF RETIREMENT‐AGE WORKERS*

I analyse, theoretically and empirically, the effects of pension benefits, family conditions and the personal characteristics of older individuals on their labour supply, wages, hours worked and job satisfaction, in the framework of the Nash bargaining condition whereby an older worker and a firm bargain over employment conditions such as wages, hours of work and job investment. It is stressed that as workers become older they tend to give greater priority to the number of hours worked, work environment and type of job than to wages, and try to improve these through job investment, even at the cost of lower wages.     

University research alliances,absorptive capacity,and the contribution of startups to employment growth

This paper examines how university research alliances and other cooperative links with universities contribute to startup employment growth. We argue that ‘scientific absorptive capacity’ at the startup is critical for reaping the benefits from university research alliances, but not necessarily for other university connections. We also estimate the aggregate employment contribution from startup firms and attribute those employment gains to university research alliances and other university connections. We find significant contributions to employment growth from university research alliances and other university connections, but scientific absorptive capacity is critical for university research alliances. Only 7% of the startup population maintained a university research alliance, but among these firms, 3.4% of their total jobs created were attributable to their alliances. These results suggest that university connections are quite important for job growth and university research alliances contributed substantially to job creation for those firms that had such alliances.     

提高大学生就业能力的对策研究

目前，全世界都关注的一个热点问题就是大学生的就业率问题、本文分析了大学生就业率低的主要原因之一是大学生的就业能力较差。针对该问题，本文提出了大学生就业能力模型；并在此基础上，针对目前大学生就业能力差的状况提出了相应的提高大学生就业能力的对策；     

助推力还是绊脚石？工作不安全感对个体创新行为的“双刃剑”影响

根据压力交互理论和调节焦点理论,构建工作不安全感对个体创新行为的“双刃剑”影响理论模型,探讨挑战性压力和阻碍性压力的中介作用、促进型焦点和防御型焦点的调节作用。选取12家高新技术企业60个团队414份领导和员工的两时间点配对调查问卷进行实证检验。研究发现：一方面,工作不安全感会通过挑战性压力认知和促进型焦点的调节导向对个体创新行为产生积极影响,成为个体创新行为的“动力”和“助推力”;另一方面,工作不安全感会通过阻碍性压力认知和防御型焦点的调节导向对个体创新行为产生消极影响,成为个体创新行为的“负担”和“绊脚石”。     

Understanding the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled workers: the role of implicit contracts

Abstract .  We examine the wage patterns of Canadian less skilled male workers over the last quarter-century by organizing workers into job entry cohorts. We find entry wages for successive cohorts declined until 1997 and then began to recover. Wage profiles steepened for cohorts entering after 1997, but not for cohorts entering in the 1980s – a period when start wages were relatively high. We argue that these patterns are consistent with a model of implicit contracts with recontracting in which a worker's current wage is determined by the best labour market conditions experienced during the current job spell.     

The participation of Russian households in the informal economy: Evidence from the VTsIOM data

This study presents the size and structure of secondary employment in Russia, analyses the determinants of Russian informal secondary employment, and discusses differences between job qualifications in a main job and those in a secondary job. We estimate that 27 percent of Russia’s GDP was produced in the informal economy during 1997–98 and informal secondary employment amounts to about 20 percent of value added produced in the informal economy. We found that the probability of holding an informal secondary job as opposed to a formal one is positively associated with higher wage rates and lower education. However, there is little evidence that low income is correlated with holding an informal secondary job. We also found evidence that an informal secondary job requires lower job qualifications as compared to a formal one. Again, low income is not significant in determining differences between job qualifications in a main job and those in a secondary job. JEL classification: J22, J24, O17, P20.     

高等教育与社会资本:性别视角下的审视

使用中国人民大学中国调查与数据中心"中国教育长期追踪调查"数据,分析大学生求职就业中所呈现出的性别差异,社会资本对大学生求职的影响及作用机制的性别差异。女大学生社会资本存量、尤其是自致性社会资本存量并不低于男大学生,她们对于社会资本的利用程度也并不弱于男大学生,但社会资本对男女两性就业的影响体现出明显差异。相较于女性,社会资本对男性就业发挥更大作用。刻板化的性别意识会阻碍社会资本对女大学生就业的促进作用,从而难以缩小大学生就业的性别差异。     

The effect of career breaks on the working lives of women

In this paper we examine the effect of career breaks on the working lives of women using survey data from the state of Queensland in Australia. After estimating the income penalty faced by women with career interruptions – according to the duration of, and reasons for, the interruptions – we seek to address a wider set of issues regarding: patterns of job change and income gains or losses related to job change; determinants of career re-entry plans; and satisfaction with hours worked. As women increasingly combine motherhood and employment, they face both penalties and costs, particularly if they have taken a career break in order to care for their young. This general labor market failure that penalizes motherhood should be addressed by relevant measures related to their income, working hours, and the type and status of employment, particularly on their re-entry into employment after a child-related career break.     

JOB REALLOCATION, EMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND AVERAGE JOB TENURE: THEORY AND WORKPLACE EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

We explore determinants of job reallocation, employment change and average job tenure in this paper. A model which associates technological advances with the process of economic growth is modified and analysed. The features of this model allow for the possibility of asymmetric behaviour when looking at the net change in employment. Workplace data from Australia (AWIRS95) are used to test the predictions generated from the model for both employment change and average job tenure. Results are presented that provide clear evidence as to the nature of workplaces in which net employment growth is concentrated. We find that employment growth is asymmetrically related to expected changes in demand for the output of the workplace. We also find that employment is lower for workplaces that are larger, older, have greater union density, offer higher relative earnings, or are operating in a more competitive environment. The impacts on average tenure are as expected from the model and from these changes in employment. Overall there is a substantial degree of agreement between the predictions of the model and our empirical results.     

The Effects of Employment Insecurity on Demand,Productivity and Employment Levels

This paper investigates the effects of labour market deregulation on demand, productivity and employment levels in the short term. The focus will be on deregulation of labour contracts, i.e. on the transition from a legal system that guarantees permanent employment to a system of formal rules allowing for job insecurity. The idea is that the greater the deregulation of labour contracts, the higher the productivity and the lower the demand and employment levels.     

Trade Competitiveness and Employment: Job Creation or Job Destruction

This paper empirically examines the impact of fluctuations in international trade competitiveness on employment in the UK manufacturing sector over the period 1999–2010. We find statistically significant but economically small effects of a shock to international trade competitiveness on the level of employment. Our results show that the adjustment process in employment mainly works through job creation. We also find that compared to large firms, small firms contribute more toward job creation than job destruction. Our results that changes in GDP growth rate and average wages are significantly related to employment suggest that the UK labour market significantly responds to market forces. Finally, we find that the effect of changes in the real exchange rate on both job creation and job destruction differs between exporting and non-exporting firms.     

Computerization and immigration: Theory and evidence from the United States

Recent technological changes have been characterized as “routine-substituting” because they reduce demand for routine tasks and increase demand for analytical and service tasks. Little is known about how these changes have impacted immigration, or task specialization between immigrants and native-born individuals. In this paper, we show that such technological progress has attracted immigrants who increasingly specialize in manual-service occupations. We also suggest that openness to immigration attenuated the job and wage polarization faced by native-born from technological changes. We explain these facts with a model of technological progress and endogenous immigration. Simulations show that unskilled immigration attenuates the drop in routine employment proceeding from technological change, enhances skill upgrading for native-born and raises economy-wide productivity and welfare.     

Determinants of Labor Market Participation and Wages of North Korean Female Refugees in South Korea

This paper uses data from a survey on 289 North Korean female refugees who arrived in South Korea in 2007 to understand the determinants of their economic adaption in the South Korean labor market. More specifically, we look at the effects of job finding channels and government policies on the labor market participation and wages of these women. We find that job finding through both personal contacts and public employment networks increases the probability of finding employment, but the former, especially job finding through contacts with South Koreans, is the most effective route to finding employment. In addition, jobs with higher wages are acquired in employment attained from South Korean referrals, followed by South Korean government agencies and those from North Korean refugee contacts. We further find that labor market participation is negatively affected by both public benefits and private transfers possibly because of increases in the reservation wages of job seekers.