老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新——基于全球跨国面板的实证分析

选取全球87个国家2000—2016年的数据,分析了老龄化与资源依赖如何对技术创新产生影响,并运用工具变量二阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了实证检验。研究思路主要基于人力资本这一传导机制,通过计量模型也证实了人力资本在老龄化、资源依赖与技术创新间的传导作用。研究结果表明:老龄化对技术创新并非阻碍作用,反而会促进一国技术创新发展。然而,资源依赖与大多数研究结论一致,会对技术创新带来消极影响。全球各国应该提高资源利用效率,防范自然资源依赖对人力资本投资的挤出效应,并且应注重人力资本投资,应对日益严峻的老龄化现象,提高区域技术创新水平。     

Discursive Contestation on Technological Innovation and the Institutional Design of the UNFCCC in the New Climate Change Regime

ABSTRACT

Under the new climate change regime ushered in by the 2015 Paris Agreement, technology development and transfer have emerged as essential means of global action for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, technological innovation has appeared as a leading component to be accelerated, encouraged, and enabled under the Paris Agreement. However, while making the rule book to implement the Paris Agreement, a clash has occurred between developed and developing countries over the meaning of technological innovation and the intervening policies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to support innovation in developing countries. By exploring rule-making processes and expert-meetings under the UNFCCC, this paper examines how this discursive contestation has progressed in relation to the meaning of technological innovation and the creation of an appropriate institutional design to support developing countries’ achievement of technological innovation. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework of discursive contestation between the two discourses of de-regulatory ecological modernisation and green governmentality with right-to-development. This research concludes by positing some policy implications.     

企业基础研究行为驱动模型构建

鉴于后互联网时代下我国企业从事基础研究的紧迫性,从学理上探讨如何引导企业广泛参与基础研究。通过文献编码分析方法得到范畴逻辑关系,构建由发达国家挤压、社会舆论敦促、强国战略要求、市场生存压力和企业责任担当5类主体行为共同作用的企业基础研究行为驱动机制。其中,发达国家挤压、社会舆论敦促、强国战略要求、市场生存压力为外部环境驱动,企业责任担当为企业内部驱动。研究提示,应从外部创新环境改善和企业内部研发积极性激发着手,综合推进企业基础研究进程,构筑我国科技强国梦。     

Do technology externalities justify restrictions on emission permit trading?

International emission trading is an important flexibility mechanism, but its use has been often restricted on the ground that access to international carbon credits can undermine the domestic abatement effort reducing the incentive to innovate and, eventually, lowering the pace of climate policy-induced technological change. This paper examines the economics that is behind these concerns by studying how a cap to the trade of carbon offsets influences innovation, technological change, and welfare. By using a standard game of abatement and R&D, we investigate the main mechanisms that shape these relationships. We also use a numerical integrated assessment model that features environmental and technology externalities to quantify how limits to the volume, the timing, and the regional allocation of carbon offsets affect climate policy costs and the incentive to invest in innovation and low-carbon technologies.Results indicate that, for moderate caps on the amount tradable emissions permits and sufficiently high technology spillovers, global innovation and technical change would increase and that this additional innovative effort could lead to economic efficiency gains. The numerical analysis confirms that when constraints are close to 15% of domestic abatement, efficiency losses are small because they are partly compensated by more technological spillovers and lower energy prices. Under a broad range of parameters, restrictions are costly for the constrained countries, but always beneficial for unconstrained ones.     

东道国科技创新、制度质量与中国OFDI门槛效应分析——基于“一带一路”视角

“一带一路”应当成为科技合作之路和创新之路。以2003-2017年“一带一路”沿线50个东道国面板数据为基础构建门槛回归模型，以东道国制度质量为门槛变量考察东道国科技创新对中国直接投资的影响。研究表明：东道国政治稳定程度、施政有效性、规制质量、法治程度、贪腐控制和公民参政与问责6个制度质量指标均存在单一门槛，说明东道国制度质量对其科技创新及中国直接投资具有影响。但是，6个制度质量指标的回归系数各不相同，说明东道国制度质量各指标的相关影响也不尽相同，中国企业在投资决策时应具体分析。最后，“一带一路”沿线国家科技水平普遍不高，而其较低的制度质量更是制约了各国科技创新，中国企业在“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资时应注意防范“技术陷阱”。     

Technological innovation and multinational expansion: A two-way link?

The paper examines how investment in research influences the form of foreign expansion chosen by the firm, and vice versa. We consider a two-country model where a monopolist producing in one country can choose between export and foreign direct investment. We assume process innovation, where the cost-reducing technological innovations are an outcome of the firm's investment in R&D. The role of technology transfer costs is explored. The model shows that, with low costs of technology transfer, there is a two-way link between the firm's R&D effort and multinational expansion. We also prove that both the research choice and the multinational choice have a positive effect on consumers' welfare in both countries.     

Bottom‐up world climate policies: Preserving fossil fuel deposits vs. capping fuel consumption

The policy of purchasing fossil fuel deposits for preservation is an alternative to the demand‐side climate policies that predominate in practice and in professional studies. This paper analyzes the deposit purchase approach and compares it to the standard demand‐side policy in a model with international trade and non‐cooperative governments that account for the effects of their policies on equilibrium prices. We investigate how the two regimes differ with respect to their equilibrium allocations and, in particular, with respect to the countries’ mitigation effort and welfare. If countries are symmetric, mitigation is stronger in the demand‐side than in the supply‐side regime and the transition from the latter to the former is welfare enhancing for all countries. If countries have different endowments of deposits in a two‐country economy, the country with higher extraction costs does not purchase deposits for preservation, and the country with lower extraction costs is better off with the supply‐side than with the demand‐side policy. Finally, we consider the case of combined policies and find surprisingly that no equilibrium in pure strategies exists, when heterogeneous countries apply both policy instruments.     

Building ‘mass’ and ‘momentum’ – a latecomer country’s passage to large technological systems – the case of China

This paper focuses on how a latecomer country can bring a large (infrastructural) technological system (LTS) to a market already dominated by the entrenched systems of global technology leaders. We construct a conceptual framework, building on Hughes LTS theory (1983) and insights from social studies of technology into the specificities of infrastructural sociotechnical systems to analyse the development of China’s 3rd Generation mobile telephony system. We explore the complex dynamics surrounding the distributed governance of innovation, highlighting changes in key system builders. We note the role of the state in addressing critical problems (‘reverse salients’), both in terms of aligning players through legitimating and sense-making and also, building the necessary mass and momentum. This includes a more radical reconfiguring of the field to secure the substantial commitments needed to materialise and embed a new LTS infrastructure.     

Poverty traps in a frictionless world: The effects of learning and technology assimilation

We study an endogenous growth model of technology assimilation through an adaptive learning process defining the accumulation of technological knowledge among both workers and industrial clusters. The assimilation of new technology and the arrival rate of innovations are both based on the distance from the technological frontier to the current technological development level of the country. We illustrate how, even if technological innovations become immediately available to all countries, and absent educational and institutional frictions among countries, differences in technological development levels allow for the existence of poverty traps leading to the economic stagnation of technological laggards.     

Re-evaluation of global innovation index based on a structural equation model

The Global Innovation Index (GII) was proposed to observe the innovation capability and efficiency levels of individual countries using input and output factors. However, it does not consider potential structural relationships among factors affecting the innovation performance of a country. In this study, we proposed a structural equation model (SEM) based on the hypothesised national innovation structure among seven factors representing inputs (institution, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, and business sophistication) and outputs (knowledge and technology outputs, and creative outputs). Using GII data from 2013, we discovered that business sophistication and infrastructure have the strongest direct and indirect effects on creative output, respectively. In addition, a new ranking is obtained based on the fitted SEM. We provide feedback information to improve innovation capabilities.     

协同·融合：创新生态、创新治理与新兴技术创新

以协同融合和产学研合作促进创新生态系统建设,对我国实施创新驱动发展战略、加快建设创新型国家和世界科技强国具有重要意义。结合第九届科技进步论坛暨第五届中国产学研合作创新论坛研讨成果,对产学研协同创新和军民融合创新、创新生态治理理念和方式、科技创新瓶颈和价值困境破解、创新治理体系机制构建以及创新发展的对策路径等进行述评。在此基础上,着重对创新生态、创新治理与新兴技术创新进行理论诠释,根据复杂适应系统理论构建创新生态、创新治理与新兴技术创新之间非线性效应影响机制模型框架,展望创新驱动及创新生态研究趋向。     

A tale of two countries: Directed technical change,trade and migratory movements

We propose a North-South model that reconciles trade and production strategies, flows of innovators and the path of economic divergence, or convergence, between countries. We explain the mechanisms behind these forces and show how the technological and economic gaps can be reversed if southern countries stop imitating northern goods and, instead, produce complementary goods. Such a strategy of complementarity on production yields the necessary incentives to innovators to engage in research in southern countries, which enhances the catching-up process between countries. It is also shown that migratory movements of unskilled labor between countries are also relevant to understand the dangers and benefits of different trade strategies for economic growth. This paper suggests a positive (negative) correlation between technological innovation in the North (South) and the level of substitutability in production, while under complementarity, technological innovation catches up in the South, therefore fostering the economic catching up process. A positive correlation between inflows of skilled and unskilled labor and substitutability of production between countries is also verified.     

Rethinking a National Innovation System: The Small Country as 'SME'

Most debates and discussions regarding trends towards globalization and localization, occur in the over-arching context of the knowledge economy, and focus on the impact of these trends on innovation and competitiveness in the 'Triad' of Europe, Japan and the USA. However, in the knowledge economy, competitiveness is increasingly based upon access to knowledge, in the form of skills and capabilities, wherever it is located in the world including the smaller industrialized countries. This paper extends the discussion of the impacts of globalization and localization to encompass other nations and their 'national innovation systems'. Policy underpinning national systems to encourage innovation is increasingly being called into question by the general move towards globalization and localization. Multi-national enterprises (MNEs) and localized clusters in the emerging technologies determine and control technological paths beyond and through national borders. Small industrialized nations which have neither a broad technological base, extensive science and technology infrastructure or resources, nor MNEs based in the country, run the risk of being marginalized when competing globally, through an inability to become involved in these international economic networks. A traditional policy response by small countries to the impact of globalization is to metaphorically 'batten down the hatches' against the invasion of MNEs and the exploitation of local resources. However, an exploration of the drivers of both globalization and localization in the knowledge economy, and the observed impacts of globalization on New Zealand, suggests that a suitable strategy for small nations might be the reverse scenario. By using the analogy of the small country as a small and medium sized enterprise (SME) in the global economy dominated by large nations and MNEs, SME advantages and disadvantages are mapped onto potential small country advantages and disadvantages. The simile is extended to propose a small-country strategy based on exploiting the documented advantages of SMEs, such as flexibility and use of external networks, for an outward-looking, supplier-orientated innovation policy. Such a policy has to be designed for rapid communication and flexibility, and has to encourage committed technological accumulation and networking, to maximize national absorptive and transformative capacities.     

Rethinking a National Innovation System: The Small Country as 'SME'

Most debates and discussions regarding trends towards globalization and localization, occur in the over-arching context of the knowledge economy, and focus on the impact of these trends on innovation and competitiveness in the 'Triad' of Europe, Japan and the USA. However, in the knowledge economy, competitiveness is increasingly based upon access to knowledge, in the form of skills and capabilities, wherever it is located in the world including the smaller industrialized countries. This paper extends the discussion of the impacts of globalization and localization to encompass other nations and their 'national innovation systems'. Policy underpinning national systems to encourage innovation is increasingly being called into question by the general move towards globalization and localization. Multi-national enterprises (MNEs) and localized clusters in the emerging technologies determine and control technological paths beyond and through national borders. Small industrialized nations which have neither a broad technological base, extensive science and technology infrastructure or resources, nor MNEs based in the country, run the risk of being marginalized when competing globally, through an inability to become involved in these international economic networks. A traditional policy response by small countries to the impact of globalization is to metaphorically 'batten down the hatches' against the invasion of MNEs and the exploitation of local resources. However, an exploration of the drivers of both globalization and localization in the knowledge economy, and the observed impacts of globalization on New Zealand, suggests that a suitable strategy for small nations might be the reverse scenario. By using the analogy of the small country as a small and medium sized enterprise (SME) in the global economy dominated by large nations and MNEs, SME advantages and disadvantages are mapped onto potential small country advantages and disadvantages. The simile is extended to propose a small-country strategy based on exploiting the documented advantages of SMEs, such as flexibility and use of external networks, for an outward-looking, supplier-orientated innovation policy. Such a policy has to be designed for rapid communication and flexibility, and has to encourage committed technological accumulation and networking, to maximize national absorptive and transformative capacities.     

在线社群氛围对社群成员创新行为的作用机理研究

在线社群是企业创新活动的外部平台,探寻在线社群成员的创新动机是激发成员创新的关键。自我决定理论揭示了动机整合对行为的影响机理,指出外部环境对行为动机具有重要影响。鉴于此,运用实证研究方法,探索了在线社群氛围对成员参与创新行为的影响机理,发现在线社群支持氛围能够通过激发成员创新动机,进而促进其创新行为;成员因果定向水平显著调节在线社群氛围对成员创新动机的激发作用。     

国家自创区产业集群协同高质量创新模式与路径研究

中国已步入全球话语权竞争时代，我国高质量发展的必然要求是产业集群协同创新升级为协同高质量创新，而建设国家自创区是提升国家自主创新能力与全球话语权的战略举措，推动产业集群协同高质量创新是完善区域创新体系和构筑区域创新创业高地的重要路径。在梳理国家自创区产业集群协同创新状况与高质量创新特征的基础上，明晰基于价值链、产业链、知识链的产业集群协同高质量创新路径。在产业集群协同高质量创新模式方面，主要有企业引领型模式、人才支撑型模式、平台引导型模式、机构合作型模式，其是高质量创新的重要特质所在，也是理论创新之处。最后,针对如何进一步推动产业集群协同高质量创新发展，从整体规划、人才管理改革、科技创新管理、服务体系4个方面提出建议。     

科技创新促进长株潭经济增长的微观机理研究

经济与科技是现代社会的两大杠杆,科技创新与经济增长有着密切的内生联系。本文通过分析科技创新对长株潭经济增长的微观传导机制与促进区域经济持续增长的科技创新机制进行分析,得出结论：科技创新是区域经济高速增长的内生驱动器,加快构建长株潭一体经济快速增长的科技创新孵化体系,加大科技投入、扶持企业自主创新、发挥产业集群的协同优势、增强聚集效应、创造科技创新扩散机制是长株潭经济增长的必然选择。     

What drives cross-country differences in export variety? A bilateral panel approach

A worldwide event like the 2020 Coronavirus outbreak can only reinforce the interest in modelling trade diversification as a key factor in countries’ vulnerability to external shocks. This paper adopts a detailed relative framework to study the determinants of product-level export variety in a large bilateral panel of developing and developed economies (16,770 country pairs in the period 1988–2014). We find that country pairs characterized by large differentials in productivity and in the makeup of the labour force differ in export variety patterns. This result holds after controlling for other endowments and for trade costs. Further, productivity plays a significant role in the reduction of export variety dissimilarities between countries belonging to different income groups. Hence, without successful technological convergence the low-income economies will not be able to reduce their exposure to export risk.     

The clean development mechanism versus international permit trading: The effect on technological change

The clean development mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol may induce technological change in developing countries. As an alternative to the clean development mechanism regime, developing countries may accept a (generous) cap on their own emissions, allow domestic producers to invest in new efficient technologies, and sell the excess emission permits on the international permit market. The purpose of this article is to show how the gains from investment, and hence the incentive to invest in new technology in developing countries, differ between the two alternative regimes. We show that the difference in the gains from investment depends on whether the producers in developing countries face competitive or noncompetitive output markets, whether the investment affects fixed or variable production costs, and whether producers can reduce emissions through means other than investing in new technology.     

The gains from trade revisited

This paper revisits the issue of whether countries gain more from trading with countries that are similar to themselves, or with countries that are different. A model based on relative endowment and technological differences across countries is developed. The main result is that a country may experience a region of increasing gains from trade as its trading partner becomes more similar to itself in terms of relative endowments. The model also predicts that for countries with sufficiently similar relative endowments, both factors of production may experience gains from trade.