企业规模异质性与产业集聚：来自中国制造业的证据

基于中国制造业数据,本文检验了企业规模异质性与制造业地理集中的互动联系。研究表明企业规模因素对制造业地理集中具有显著影响。按素密集度对制造业的分类回归进一步表明,上述影响存在行业差异：劳动力与资源密集型行业的相关性不稳健,但资本技术密集型行业的结果是稳健的。这意味着资本技术密集型行业的企业规模分布具有地理集中倾向：大市场集中分布了更多大规模企业。这一结论表明制造业集聚具有规模异质性：小规模企业通过集聚经济,促进生产率提高形成制造业集聚,大规模企业则通过集中分布在大市场而形成制造业集聚。另外,从制造业集聚的驱动力量看,制造业集聚的强化效应与地区异质因素两股力量都在推动制造业地理集中,由此可以判断制造业集中趋势还将持续。     

The Path and Threshold Effect of Digitalization on the Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Export

Since its traditional comparative advantages are on the wane, China should use digital economy to enhance its competitiveness of manufacturing export. Based on microscopic data of various regions in China from 2013 to 2020, this paper studies the relationship between digital economy and China’s competitiveness of manufacturing export, the internal mechanism of their influence, and the boundary conditions for the establishment of the relationship between digital economy and competitiveness of manufacturing export. Our conclusions include that: there is a significant positive spatial correlation between digital economy and export competitiveness; digital economy can not only enhance the export competitiveness of the region, but also have a positive impact on that of adjacent regions; innovation efficiency, the accumulation of human capital and synergistic agglomeration exerts a mediating effect when digital economy impacts China’s export competitiveness; and with the share of import trade as the threshold variable, the facilitating effect of digital economy on the export competitiveness of the western region is lower than that of the eastern region before the threshold, but significantly higher than that of the eastern , central and northeastern regions as well as the whole country after the threshold. Therefore, China should vigorously promote the construction of new digital infrastructure in the western region, and give full play to the role of new digital infrastructure in promoting trade upgrade. Through the improvement of human capital quality, the centralized development of digital economy and the overall improvement of innovation efficiency, we should gradually improve the international competitiveness of China’s export enterprises.     

专业化与多样化集聚如何影响劳动力错配 --基于制造业细分行业的研究

要素的优化配置对实现经济高质量发展意义重大.基于2006—2016年28个制造业细分行业的面板数据,探讨了专业化集聚、多样化集聚对劳动力错配的异质性影响机制.研究发现:专业化集聚与多样化集聚对劳动力错配的影响机制存在异质性.专业化集聚与劳动力错配程度之间呈非线性关系,在专业化集聚程度较弱时,集聚能够改善劳动力错配;随着专业化程度逐渐深入,集聚开始恶化劳动力配置.多样化集聚对劳动力错配的优化强度随集聚程度加深减弱.产业集聚主要通过影响劳动力结构作用于劳动力配置.研究结论对改善中国制造业劳动力要素错配具有参考价值.     

Interrelationship among foreign presence,domestic sales and export intensity in Chinese manufacturing industries

Using panel data on six Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2005–2007, this article explores the interrelationship among foreign presence, domestic sales and export intensity of local firms. We find that the domestic sales and exports are complementary for local firms in China’s pharmaceutical industry, whereas in the case of the textile, transportation equipment, beverage, communication equipment and general equipment manufacturing industries, domestic sales and exports are substitutes. An increase in the average domestic sales increases foreign presence in all industries. The same applies to an increase in the average export intensity. An increase in the level of competition in China’s textile industry increases the export intensity as well as domestic sales of local textile firms. However, an increase in the level of competition in the pharmaceutical industry leads to a very large decrease in export intensity of local pharmaceutical firms. In the case of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry, an increase in the level of competition decreases domestic sales of local firms. Furthermore, an increase in the firm size increases domestic sales of Chinese firms in all six manufacturing industries.     

Export and import market-specific characteristics

Using a rich firm-level dataset on the Italian manufacturing industry, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the role that firms and market characteristics play in shaping firms’ trade activities. We enhance the previous analyses by considering firms’ engagement in international transactions, by focusing on either exports or imports. We show that the determinants of a firm’s export participation and value across countries also drive import behavior. Our research is consistent with the presence of country-specific sunk costs and with a qualitatively similar role of gravity forces and other country attributes on both sides of trading activities. Our evidence, however, militates in favor of a framework where variations in market characteristics have a larger impact on imports than exports.     

国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的影响——来自企业层面的微观证据

当前,以贸易保护主义为主要特征的"逆全球化"思潮涌现,国外的贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口增长构成严重的威胁.那么,这些贸易保护措施对中国制造业的出口到底产生了怎样的影响?其内在机制是什么?文章采用2009?2011年GTA数据库与中国海关统计数据库的合并数据,从企业这一微观层面定量识别国外贸易保护措施对中国制造业出口的实际影响.研究发现:(1)国外贸易保护措施的实施显著地降低了受影响企业的出口规模,贸易保护措施的数量每增加1次,受影响企业的出口将下降17%左右;贸易保护强度每增加1个单位,受影响企业的出口将下降52%左右.(2)从影响机制看,国外贸易保护措施对制造业出口的抑制效应是通过降低出口的数量和质量来实现的.(3)贸易融资对制造业出口的边际影响最大,而贸易救济措施是对制造业出口整体影响最大的贸易保护措施.(4)国外贸易保护措施对外资企业、同质产品以及中间品出口的抑制作用更明显.文章的研究结论既为理解贸易保护主义的危害提供了经验证据,也为中国在持续推动对外开放背景下如何应对贸易保护壁垒提供了决策依据.     

Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth in Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the effect of agglomeration economies on productivity growth in Indonesian manufacturing industries during the first decade of this century. Productivity growth is measured at the firm level using the Färe‐Primont Productivity Index. Each firm's productivity growth is then regressed against a set of firm and industry characteristics, including three measures of agglomeration representing the effects of specialisation, diversity and competition. The results show evidence of a positive specialisation effect and a negative diversity effect for aggregate manufacturing and sub‐sectors. Furthermore, there are mixed effects across industries, suggesting that Porter's competition externalities stimulate firm productivity growth under some conditions but not others.     

开放因素对中国制造业部门的技术溢出效应研究

利用2004～2008年间的动态面板数据模型,对开放因素为中国制造业部门所带来的技术溢出效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)开放因素对制造业部门的总体技术溢出效应存在很大差异,出口贸易对中国制造业部门具有显著的正向技术溢出效应,而外商投资对制造业部门的技术进步则存在负面影响;(2)分部门看,外商投资的技术溢出效应主要体现在高技术制造业和中高技术制造业部门,而出口贸易对所有制造业部门都具有显著的正向技术溢出效应。     

产业互动外部性、生产性服务业集聚与城市创新力--对我国七大城市群的一项实证比较

城市群经济在我国经济版图中扮演越来越重要的角色,正成为创新扩散的主要载体和经济增长的新引擎。生产性服务业作为高技术含量的知识密集型产业,其分布与结构的合理性对城市及城市群形成创新竞争力有重要意义。从产业互动外部性与产业集聚外部性角度切入,将城市群作为产业集聚的空间载体,利用2003-2016年我国七大城市群127个城市的面板数据构建动态空间面板模型,考察生产性服务业相对专业化集聚及相对多样化集聚对城市创新力的影响,进而探讨这种影响在城市群之间的差异性。实证结果显示:(1)生产性服务业相对集聚具有空间溢出效应,即某一城市创新力受当地和相邻地区生产性服务业相对集聚水平的影响。(2)就全国整体而言,对城市创新力有持续性影响的主要是相对多样化集聚而非相对专业化集聚,通过生产性服务业嵌入制造业价值链形成动态比较优势来实现城市创新能力的提升。(3)考虑区域异质性的回归结果表明,生产性服务业相对集聚程度对不同发展阶段不同发展模式的城市群内城市创新产生显著的差异性影响。     

Endogenous product versus process innovation and a firm’s propensity to export

This article provides an empirical analysis of the effects of new product versus process innovations on export propensity at the firm level. Product innovation is a key factor for successful market entry in models of creative destruction and Schumpeterian growth. Process innovation helps securing a firm’s market position given the characteristics of its product supply. Both modes of innovation are expected to raise a firm’s propensity to export. According to new trade theory, we conjecture that product innovation is relatively more important in that regard. We investigate these hypotheses in a rich survey panel data set with information about new innovations of either type. With a set of indicators regarding innovation motives and impediments and continuous variables at the firm and industry level at hand, we may determine the probability of launching new innovations and their impact on export propensity at the firm level through a double treatment approach.     

Environmental impact of customs union agreement with EU on Turkey's trade in manufacturing industry

In this study, we analyse Turkey's manufacturing industry trade by estimating sectoral import and export demand equations for 1980–2000. The study aims to understand whether the trade in the manufacturing industry complies with pollution haven hypothesis, and whether the free trade environment provided by the customs union (CU) agreement altered the trade pattern of the clean and dirty industries. Results of our econometric models have shown that while CU positively affects the import demand, it does not have any significant impact on the export demand of Turkish manufacturing industry. In terms of the environmental impact, distinction between clean and dirty industries turns out to be significant for both import and export demand. In general, our findings suggest that both clean and dirty industries’ import demand increased during the study period. In terms of export demand, clean industries’ export demand declines whereas dirty industries’ export demand increases compared to the total demand.     

Inequality,public good provision and the composition of trade

This paper investigates the effect of trade liberalization on the provision of public goods and shows that inequality also plays a vital role here. Public goods help enhance the productivity of firms, lower prices and raise profitability. The provision of public goods has different effects in closed and open economies. In an open economy, the impact of productive spending on increasing profit is stronger. Consequently, the opening up of the economy shifts the benefits of productive public goods from consumers to firms. As the median voters’, share of the firm’s profit rises, public goods become more appealing and flourish. Consequently, the manufacturing export is boosted by a rise in productivity.     

企业出口与生产率的关系——基于中国工业企业数据的实证研究

采用1998—2007年中国工业企业数据,对出口与生产率的关系进行了再探讨,具体研究了出口企业是否具有更高的生产率、企业在做出口决策的过程中是否存在自我选择机制以及出口行为本身是否能促进企业生产率的增长。研究结果显示:当用TFP衡量生产率时,企业出口决策中存在自我选择机制,因此出口企业的生产率相对较高——这与异质企业贸易模型的预期结果一致;当用劳动生产率(人均附加值)衡量企业生产率时,则"生产率悖论"存在,即出口者的生产率反而较低;当企业刚进入出口市场时,其生产率会经历短期的快速增长,但从长期来看,出口对企业生产率增长的作用在整体上是负向的。     

The impact of world manufacturing growth on Australia's trading position

Michal Kalecki's pricing analysis is found to provide a fruitful basis for an examination of the impact of world business cycles on Australia's international trade. Australia's terms of trade are found to move procyclically with world manufacturing production as implied by application of the analysis. Implications of the change in the terms of trade for domestic producers and consumers are developed by adapting Kalecki's analysis to an open economy context. Fluctuations in world manufacturing are found to have a negligible impact on Australia's export volume and a strong positive impact on her import volume as expected based on application of the adapted analysis.     

Effects of Islamic religiosity on bilateral trust in trade: The case of Turkish exports

Using a rich firm level data set for Turkish manufacturing, we test whether sharing similar religious beliefs with potential contracting parties drives a firm’s first time entry into export markets. We exploit variation in the practice of Islam across Turkish NUTS3 regions and we find that firms located in regions characterised by stronger religiousness are more likely to enter export destinations with a higher share of Muslims among their population. This result is robust to the control for past trade, common language, cultural and migration ties as well as for selective trade policy in favour of politically connected religious business groups. In particular, religious proximity eases export entry for producers of “trust intensive” goods, it favours subsequent foreign market entries and reduces the export exit probability. All in all, our evidence supports an export enhancing effect of religious proximity working through export sunk costs reduction rather than through similarity in preferences.     

Conjectural Variations, Market Power, and Optimal Trade Policy in a Vertically Related Industry

The paper introduces the conjectural variations and bargaining approaches into a vertical model wherein a foreign upstream firm supplies one input to two downstream firms that produce differentiated products for the export market. Various downstream firms’ competition modes and upstream's pricing schemes emerge as special cases of this formulation. The authors show that the optimal export policy of a downstream country depends crucially on the downstream firms’ conjectures of rivals’ responses, the upstream firm's pricing schemes, their relative bargaining powers, and the degree of product differentiation. If the upstream's pricing or bargaining power is strong (weak) and if the downstream's degree of competition is high (low), a tax (subsidy) is optimal owing to a strong (weak) vertical profit‐shifting effect and a weak (strong) horizontal effect.     

Effects of foreign equity participation on recipient firm exports

We offer new evidence on the role of foreign investment in domestic firms’ export decisions, both at intensive and extensive margins, using balance sheet data from a panel of manufacturing firms in India. In contrast to the existing literature, we analyse the effect of foreign investment at different levels, where the levels correspond to percentages of foreign equity. We use a selection procedure to control for the potential self-selection of firms into export participation. Though we do find that foreign investment increases a domestic firm’s likelihood to export, firms with majority foreign equity are found to serve domestic market more, once the self-selection is accounted for.     

制造业集聚、技术进步与绿色创新绩效

基于我国区域制造业集聚的时空异质性分析，考虑不同技术进步路径，实证考察了制造业集聚、制造业集聚与技术进步的关联效应对绿色创新绩效的影响机理。研究表明：东部地区绝大多数省份呈现高度制造业集聚（MI≥0.05）状态，中西部地区大多数省份则呈现中度制造业集聚（0.02≤MI＜0.05）状态，且随着时间延伸，中西部地区制造业逐渐往东部地区集聚;对于技术进步路径变量，自主研发创新显著正向影响绿色创新绩效，技术引进和国内技术购买对绿色创新绩效呈现微弱或不显著负向影响;制造业集聚与绿色创新绩效间呈现倒“U”型曲线关系;制造业集聚与自主研发创新的协同效应显著正向影响绿色创新绩效，而制造业集聚与技术引进及国内技术购买的正向协同效应却受到抑制，甚至负向影响绿色创新绩效。     

Export Spillovers of FDI on China's Domestic Firms

This paper examines the horizontal and vertical export spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China's manufacturing domestic firms by using firm‐level census data over the period of 2000–03. Based on a Heckman two‐step procedure combining first differencing and instrumental variable regression techniques, it is found that FDI has had a positive impact on the export value of domestic firms mainly through backward technology spillovers and a positive impact on the export‐to‐sales ratio of domestic firms through horizontal export‐related information spillovers. After decomposing FDI by different market orientation and domestic firms by different ownership, the paper finds that the positive impact on domestic firms' export values is mainly from the nonexporting and the exporting foreign‐invested enterprises while the positive impact on domestic firms' export‐to‐sales ratios is mainly from the high‐exporting foreign‐invested enterprises. Both types of export spillovers are mainly diffused to domestic non‐state‐owned enterprises.     

Does Investing in Technology Affect Exports? Evidence from Indian Firms

The authors use firm-level data from Indian manufacturing industries to explore the determinants of exports, focusing on the role played by technology. The empirical analysis, which distinguishes between a firm's decision to export and the volume of its exports conditional on its having decided to export, reveals that investments in technology via R&D and technology transfer agreements can facilitate the entry of Indian firms into export markets. However, their influence on the volume of exports is fairly limited. Factors with a more broad-based influence on both export participation and volumes include labor intensity and, especially, firm size.