Rethinking banking. Debt discounting and the making of modern money as liquidity

The article radically challenges the conventional view of modern banking as financial intermediation and rejects the mutually related notion, firmly entrenched in both the mainstream and alternative imaginary, of fractional reserve banking. By contrast, it argues that modern banks are peculiar financiers which, far from banking other people's money, are originally and primarily involved with making money by creating a most fundamental institution of capitalism: liquidity. Crucially, central to the bank-engendered creation of liquidity is a negotiation of value that does not involve any formal lending of cash by a creditor – in fact, it does not require a creditor at all. Instead, it relies on a quid pro quo of debts performed by means of discounting whereby a regime of fluid property relations of mutual indebtedness, commonly known as debt finance, is established. In this regime of liquidity, money is constructed as entirely a debtors’ money: it is the outcome of a process of monetisation of bank debts entangled with a capitalisation of other people's debts.     

声誉、债务与会计稳健性——信任视角的一项经验研究

文章从信任的角度研究了公司声誉如何影响债务契约对会计稳健性的要求。声誉较好的债务人能够赢得债权人的信任,从而降低债务契约对会计稳健性的要求。文章运用我国上市公司的数据,采用三种声誉度量方法,实证检验发现债务水平对会计稳健性有正向影响,债务人的良好声誉能够降低这种正向影响。文章以信任概念为基础整合了声誉和会计稳健性的理论关系,拓展了财务会计研究的视野,并为声誉对法律的替代作用提供了新的经验证据。     

Putting ‘merchants of debt’ in their place: the political economy of retail banking and credit-based financialisation in Germany

Why did household debt in Germany not increase after the year 2000? This article offers a supply-side explanation for this deviant debt trajectory by tracing the historical evolution of retail banking in the German political economy. It argues that at the end of the 1990s and in the light of European Monetary Union, profitability issues and banking fragmentation became severe enough to interrupt the path towards credit-based financialisation as prevalent among other capitalist economies. These factors interacted with a traditional lack of tools and incentives for rapid credit expansion, even though they were renegotiated in the processes of financial liberalisation, internationalisation and innovation. By employing historical-qualitative as well as statistical evidence for the argument, the paper’s contribution becomes twofold. First, it introduces and conceptualises retail banking as a focal point in the analysis of national financial systems and their transformation. Second, it complicates the standard accounts of German non-financialisation and reveals the ‘contested’ character of financial reform.     

为什么要复制银行:自由银行业思想的回归?

从自由银行时期至今,商业银行一般都有严格的进入限制。在此背景下,非银行金融机构为什么要复制银行,为什么能复制银行?本文通过梳理自由银行时期前后英国和美国的银行特许权演变历史发现,复制银行的动力包括两种因素。一方面,商业银行的特许权内涵在不断扩大,由最初的发钞特许权演变为吸收存款、发放贷款、发行短期债务等普通业务特许权,与此同时,特许权价值随着金融自由化、金融创新和商业银行自身活动表外化等因素则不断降低。另一方面,美国的金融监管制度呈现整体放松趋势,尤其是约束影子银行体系的两个重要方面——货币市场的证券发行和信贷资产投资主体资格——的法律都得以放松。这两个方面的因素均源于一种思想——自由银行业思想的反复回归,最终促成现代影子银行体系得以复制银行功能并获得迅速发展。     

Legal institutionalism: Capitalism and the constitutive role of law

Social scientists have paid insufficient attention to the role of law in constituting the economic institutions of capitalism. Part of this neglect emanates for inadequate conceptions of the nature of law itself. Spontaneous conceptions of law and property rights that downplay the role of the state are criticized here, because they typically assume relatively small numbers of agents and underplay the complexity and uncertainty in developed capitalist systems. In developed capitalist economies, law is sustained through interaction between private agents, courts and the legislative apparatus. Law is also a key institution for overcoming contracting uncertainties. It is furthermore a part of the power structure of society, and a major means by which power is exercised. This argument is illustrated by considering institutions such as property and the firm. Complex systems of law have played a crucial role in capitalist development and are also vital for developing economies.     

A Crisis of the Overcrowded Future: Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation

This article focuses on the role the shadow banking system played in the financial crisis of 2007–9. Engaging with emergent theories of shadow banking, I inquire into its structural role in contemporary capitalism. My main premise here is that the crisis of 2007–9 is distinct in financial history because it did not centre on any organised market. Rather, it was crisis of the overcrowded financial channels bridging the present and the future, which have become congested because of the massive concentration of financial values generated, yet not sustained, through the shadow banking network. My analysis suggests that shadow banking has determined the nature of financial crisis of 2007–9 and continues to play a necessary role in financial capitalism based on futurity. Drawing on scholarship in financial Keynesianism, contemporary legal studies and early evolutionary political economy, I argue that shadow banking is best seen as the organic institutional infrastructure of financialised capitalism based on debt and geared towards futurity, a concept originally developed by John Commons.     

Lending technologies,banking relationships,and firms’ access to credit in Italy: the role of firm size

This paper analyses the role of lending technologies and banking relationships on firms’ credit access in Italy. Using EFIGE firm-level data, we show that the depth and strength of firm–bank relationships have heterogeneous effects on credit demand and rationing probabilities depending on the size of the borrower. Multiple banking relationships alleviate financial constraints for small firms, while borrowing from a large number of lenders hinders access to credit for large companies. Small and medium-sized enterprises with a higher share of debt with the main bank have a lower probability of being credit denied, as debt concentration contributes to overcome the opacity problems typical of the SMEs. Long-lasting relationships, by reducing information asymmetries, significantly improve access to credit for small and large firms. Conversely, we find that medium-sized enterprises are more exposed to financing constraints as relationship duration increases, due to possible lock-in effects. Finally, firms maintaining banking relationships based on transactional technologies are more likely to be credit denied, while the use of relationship lending technologies improves credit availability for both small and large enterprises.     

债务型经济增长:当代发达国家的经济特征

2008年美国金融危机和近年一些发达国家相继发生的主权债务危机,从根本上不同于以往历次危机,展现了当代发达资本主义国家经济的债务化特征,即一方面资本过剩(流动性过剩)推动了金融资本投机性投资,依靠金融创新制造的"财富效应"来刺激虚假的购买力;另一方面,发达国家政府依靠债务来维持其庞大的财政开支。债务型经济增长是不可持续的,终将爆发危机进行强制性调整。     

The emergence of English commercial law: Analysis inspired by the Ottoman experience

Thirteenth-century England was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners. To accommodate and encourage foreign merchants, England modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders. Among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both Englishmen and foreigners. By introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally, England created a level playing field that enabled English merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later Middle Ages. England's ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of English law, the representation of merchants in Parliament, and legal pluralism. Medieval England contrasts sharply with the early modern Ottoman Empire. The latter created special institutions for foreign merchants, which eventually put Ottoman Muslims at a competitive disadvantage.     

债务结构、政府干预与市场环境

使用2002—2005年上市公司的面板数据对上市公司负债融资结构的影响因素研究发现:除一些企业内部的具体因素影响了企业的债务结构外,企业外部环境因素也影响了企业的债务结构。尤其表现在,企业所处地区的政府干预越多,市场化程度越低,法治水平越差,银行债务占总负债的比例越高;企业所处地区的政府干预越少,市场化程度越高,法治水平越好,信用债务占总负债的比例越高。     

信用评级机构在次级债危机形成中的角色解析

由于现代金融体系的全球化,这场涉及美国众多金融机构的次级债危机很快在全球蔓延开来,逐步演变成了一场全球信用危机,而一贯被人们寄予厚望的信用评级机构在这场愈演愈烈的危机中却备受指责.论文重新审视了芙国信用评级机构运营机制的固有缺陷,通过揭示信用评级机构对次级债危机形成的责任,提出我国要以次级债危机为鉴,通过规范信用评级行业的发展,使信用评级机构真正承担金融风险监督者的责任.     

The democratic (dis)advantage: The conditional impact of democracy on credit risk and sovereign default

Many have argued that democracies are able to make credible commitments to repay their debts and consequently enjoy higher sovereign credit ratings. In contrast to this expectation, I argue that the advantage of democracies in credit ratings is conditional on the countries' level of financial vulnerability and adjustment needs. Because democracies have more diffuse decision-making and are more accountable to the public, they encounter greater difficulty than autocracies in passing unpopular economic adjustment measures. Thus, I argue that democracies with high debt levels and low foreign reserve assets experience worse credit outcomes, whereas democracies with low vulnerability experience more positive outcomes. In a sample of up to 96 developing countries, I show that democracies have worse credit ratings and CDS Spreads and are more likely to default than their autocratic counterparts when foreign reserves are low relative to external debt. Notably, I also show that large debt burdens increase credit risk mainly in more democratic countries. I further test the causal pathway of the democratic advantage by constructing democracy scores of “market-friendly” and “adjustment-difficulty” democracy, finding that democracy worsens debt outcomes due to adjustment difficulty. These findings help to revise and clarify the causal logic surrounding the democratic advantage hypothesis.     

Keynes and a post-Keynesian controversy over the effect of debt on income expansion

The paper considers arguments of Robertson (1938) and Asimakopulos (1983) that the Keynesian multiplier expansion of output may be constrained by debt implicitly incurred in the financing of autonomous investment necessary to start the multiplier process. The task of this essay is to show that within the ‘short-period’ and static analytical framework of Keynes, this line of reasoning regarding the adverse effects of debt on multiplier-induced expansions of output is unwarranted. Nevertheless it is concluded that if the Keynesian framework is abandoned in favour of a dynamic framework in the manner of a steady trend rate of growth - a choice dependent on how one conceives of the economy, as inherently static or dynamic - then such arguments have troubling implications. In particular, the dependence of Keynes's approach on credit and hence debt forges links between ‘short-periods' whose distinctness from one another is crucial to Keynes's result.     

浮息债券基准利率创新分析

浮息债券基准利率的选择直接决定了浮息债券的投资价值。中国目前浮息债券基准利率有一年期定期存款利率和7日回购利率两种。本文主要通过对两种基准利率的生成机制以及市场波动特征进行分析,重点讨论了不同基准利率浮息债券的融资成本以及浮息债券基准利率创新对中国商业银行证券投资管理带来的新的挑战。     

债务限额、税收自主权与地方政府隐性债务风险*

债务限额管理对隐性债务风险的影响是目前相关研究中的薄弱环节。本文基于全国30个省份2010—2018年的面板数据，运用广义双重差分模型进行了实证研究。研究发现，债务限额没有起到约束隐性债务增长的作用，且债务限额空间减少会加剧隐性债务风险扩张。这一效应在中西部地区尤为明显，而提高税收自主权会减弱债务限额的不利影响。以地方官员集体决策制度（省级党委常委会）衡量的地区异质性分析发现，债务限额对地方隐性债务风险的不利影响在中央下派常委比例高的地区更小。进一步对债务限额进行细分研究发现，地方债置换和新增债券发行对隐性债务风险有不同影响。本文的政策含义是治理地方隐性债务风险需要将债务限额制度、官员行为、财税体制改革结合起来，标本兼治，才能真正实现隐性债务风险化解目标。     

个人信用与个人破产制度法律关系的分析——兼论我国建立个人破产制度的现实意义

目前,我国个人信用市场存在大量支付不能的债务无法通过现行法律妥善清理,导致个人信用风险难以得到有效控制和化解.本文从分析个人信用的法律保护入手,重点从内在逻辑联系以及个人破产制度的规则安排与个人信用的动态维护两方面,对个人信用和个人破产的法律关系进行了深入探讨,进而论证当前我国建立个人破产制度、推动个人信用风险管理的现实意义.     

Ownership, institutions, and capital structure: Evidence from China

We employ a unique data set to explore the role of ownership structure and institutional development in debt financing of non-publicly traded Chinese firms. We show that state ownership is positively associated with leverage and firms’ access to long-term debt, while foreign ownership is negatively associated with all measures of leverage. Surprisingly, firms in better developed regions are associated with reduced access to long-term debt, suggesting the availability of alternative financing channels and the tightening of the lending standards under the on-going banking reform. The combination of ownership structures and institutions explains up to 6% of the total variation in firms’ leverage decisions, while firm characteristics alone explain no more than 8% of the variation. Further, we show that non-state-owned firms tend to have lower total and short-term debt than their state-owned counterparts in less developed regions. Finally, we show that state-owned firms’ easy access to long-term debt is positively associated with long-term investment and negatively associated with firm performance.     

Sovereign debt, structural adjustment, and conditionality

The lack of a proper enforcement mechanism for sovereign debt generates a commitment failure. As a result, a sovereign may seek to improve its position in debt renegotiations and thus evade its debt obligations by reducing exports. Conditionality seeks to provide a solution to the incentive problem by addressing the commitment failure. Formalizing this argument, we show that conditionality helps the repayment of sovereign debt. In certain circumstances, it can eliminate debt overhang, especially when it is coupled with concessionary lending of sufficient magnitude. It is, however, unable to restore first best. When it is anticipated by lenders, conditionality may get international financial institutions and sovereign debtors into a trap where the debt overhang persist, debt rescheduling takes place periodically, and conditionality continues indefinitely.     

解决我国地方政府债务的思路

近年来,地方政府债务问题已成为影响我国经济长期稳定增长不可忽视的重要因素。解决我国地方政府债务的根本出路在于地方政府举债债券化,采用总体部署、阶段实施的解决方案,最终使地方政府债务走向透明化、法制化、市场化、规范化的道路。     

中国参与解决欧债危机的战略性探析

中欧在解决欧债危机问题上的战略选择关系到欧洲一体化进程、中欧关系走势和国际政治经济秩序建设。本文概述了在应对欧债危机问题上欧盟所采取的策略、中国在参与解决欧债危机问题上所采取的积极态度和行动，分析了在中国参与解决欧债危机问题上，欧洲缺乏对华政治信任的主要原因，并对中欧建立政治互信，共同应对欧债危机的战略意义进行了探索。