增加公共教育支出能够缓解“二代”现象吗?——基于CHNS的代际收入流动性分析

文章基于我国社会"二代"现象的现实背景,从公共教育支出的视角,依据代际收入流动理论,采用我国各地区教育经费支出和生均教育经费数据以及"中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)"数据,运用多重门槛模型对我国公共教育支出影响居民代际收入流动的作用机制与程度进行了理论与实证分析。研究发现:(1)当前我国代际收入流动性较低,各地区公共教育支出水平会影响代际收入流动性的大小,加入公共教育支出变量后,代际收入弹性为0.548,公共教育支出对子代收入的弹性为0.154;(2)随着政府教育支出水平的提高,公共教育支出水平越高的地区代际收入流动性的增加越显著;(3)各地区公共教育支出对代际收入流动性的影响程度并不随地区经济发展水平差异而不同。因此,无论经济发达地区还是落后地区,政府对公共教育的投入都应该持续进行,只有累积到一定程度后才能显著改善代际收入流动性,缓解"二代"现象。     

代际收入流动性与收入不平等——基于面板数据联立方程模型的分析

利用CHNS数据,在测度收入不平等的代际传递性的基础上,通过面板数据联立方程模型实证分析代际收入流动与收入不平等之间的关系。实证研究结果表明,收入不平等程度的上升阻碍了代际收入的流动,而代际收入弹性的提高也会导致收入不平等状况的恶化。     

收入流动性与我国居民长期收入不平等的动态变化:基于CHNS数据的分析

收入不平等是世界各国面临的共同难题.大多数文献在分析收入不平等时,通常是以年度截面收入为基础进行估算的,而如果考虑到收入流动性的存在,长期收入不平等程度将可能有所减小.文章的研究显示:根据CHNS提供的数据,通过居民收入5等分转换矩阵可以看出,由于收入流动性的存在,各收入层级长期收入所占份额较为接近,长期收入的基尼系数也大大低于年度平均值.文章还以Shorrocks平等化指数量化了收入流动性对长期收入不平等的影响,发现1989-2011年期间,收入流动性使以长期收入衡量的不平等程度降低了24.4％,但近年来,收入流动性出现了下降趋势,抑制了长期收入的平等化.由于收入流动性会影响到长期收入的不平等,因此建议通过深化改革公共政策和提高居民受教育程度来提高流动性,进而实现长期收入平等.     

代际收入流动性度量及其影响因素的分析:一个综述

代际收入流动性研究是经济学研究的前沿领域之一。代际收入流动性强意味着子代相对于父代更具有独立性。促进代际流动有助于实现机会和收入的平等并提高社会效率。在流动性的度量中,主要使用回归系数法和转换矩阵法。代际收入流动受到多因素的影响,包括人力资本投资、社会关系网络、选型婚配、生理遗传等。西方代际收入流动性的考察往往忽略了这些因素背后的制度因素。     

家庭借贷约束、公共教育支出与社会流动性

人力资本投资是增强社会流动性的重要手段,然而借贷约束使得底层家庭无力对子女进行最优的人力资本投资;与此同时,富裕家庭则不受借贷约束的影响,总体结果是社会流动性减弱。利用中国健康与养老追踪调查和全国综合社会调查数据,本文发现,借贷约束确实提高了居民收入和教育的代际传递弹性,降低了社会流动性。在匹配政府公共教育支出数据后发现,公共教育支出可以缓解家庭层面人力资本投资的不足,提高教育水平的代际流动性。     

收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪的影响

本文利用1988—2006年中国省级面板数据,采用动态面板数据估计了收入分配不平等对刑事犯罪率的影响。研究发现,控制跨省人口迁徙、福利支出、失业率等因素并作相关的稳健性检验以后,以基尼系数度量的收入分配不平等上升1个百分点,刑事犯罪率将至少上升0.185个百分点,并且收入不平等程度不断上升会导致政府增加福利支出以降低刑事犯罪率;城市化会导致刑事犯罪率上升;提高人力资本水平和增加福利支出都会对遏制犯罪发挥重要影响。     

我国人力资本投资与居民收入差距之间“循环累积因果”效应研究

特殊的国情,导致我国收入差距具有特殊的形成机理——"人力资本陷阱",即人力资本与收入差距之间具有明显的"循环累计因果效应"。一方面,人力资本状况通过影响居民的就业状况、劳动生产率以及非劳动收入,拉大人力资本状况不同居民之间的收入差距。另一方面,收入差距又会通过影响居民人力资本的投资行为、代际传递以及获得公共人力资本投资的能力等方面,加剧不同收入阶层之间人力资本状况的差距。这种人力资本与收入差距之间的"循环累积因果效应",决定解决我国收入差距问题必须长、短期政策相结合,短期措施是采取激励相容的福利政策,长期则要以改善低收入阶层的人力资本为主。     

人力资本积累模型及其动态演化仿真

我们在分析人力资本积累动态演化时,放松柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的假定,同时采用世代交叠模型,可以得出的具体含义有:基本生活开支增加或流动性约束加强会导致人力资本发展陷阱临界值变大;教育系统效率改进则使发展陷阱临界值下降且稳态均衡值上升;人力资本替代弹性越大越有利于经济走出发展陷阱;产业技术密集度上升会使稳态均衡值上升,但同时会导致发展陷阱临界值变大。     

代际收入流动性的所有制差异研究

本文基于中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)1989-2011年的调查数据,通过工具变量法、代际收入转换矩阵法及MLM模型研究了代际收入流动性的所有制差异。研究结果表明:(1)不同所有制部门的代际收入流动性存在显著差异,在国有部门工作的父代对其子代收入的影响更大。(2)不同所有制部门处于收入阶层两端的代际收入流动情况差异较大,国有部门最高收入阶层的代际收入传递程度高达60%;而非国有部门最低收入阶层的代际收入传递程度高达44%。(3)人力资本是影响不同所有制部门代际收入向上流动的主要因素,而家庭背景在不同所有制部门发挥的作用不同。     

公共教育水平的提升如何增强代际收入流动性——基于CFPS和CHFS数据的实证分析

本文从理论和实证两个角度对公共教育如何影响代际收入流动性的机制进行研究。研究结果表明，首先，中国的代际收入流动性仍处于较高水平。其次，当子女受教育程度较低时，子女收入更多地依赖于父母；而当子女受教育程度较高时，子女收入更多地依靠自身的努力，无需依赖父母。第三，公共教育水平的提高有利于提高代际收入流动性。当公共教育水平较低时，公共教育无法发挥对代际收入流动性的调节作用。当公共教育处于中等水平时，公共教育对代际收入流动性的提高有一定的促进作用。当公共教育水平较高时，公共教育对提高代际收入流动性的作用最大。基于以上结论，本文提出提高公共教育水平、促进机会公平的对策建议。     

Long-run investment under uncertain demand

In the literature investigating the impact of uncertainty on short-run and long-run investment, most authors have used a log linear profit function. This functional form has been generally considered a reasonable approximation for a more general one and has the advantage of providing closed form solutions for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation. In this paper, we consider the profit function for the case of a monopolistic firm facing a linear demand function with additive shocks. Under this assumption, analytical solutions, for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation, are not available. We then 1) propose an analytical approximation of the short-run investment rule and 2) show how such approximation can be used in order to derive the corresponding i) steady-state distribution of the optimal stock of capital and ii) the long-run average rate of capital accumulation. Finally, we compare the long-run rates of capital accumulation calculated under both profit function specifications. We find that, within a plausible range of parameter values, the two rates are significantly different. Hence, we conclude that the choice of a log linear functional form has a non-trivial impact on the magnitude of the long run rate of capital accumulation.     

Factor mobility and skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the presence of internationally traded product varieties

Most existing studies examine the issue of skilled–unskilled wage inequality by using models that are relevant only in the long-run. In addition, studies that utilise product variety models assume that varieties of producer services are non-traded. Using a product variety model, this paper examines the issue of the skilled–unskilled wage inequality when producer services are internationally traded. The paper shows that, irrespective of the size of income share of capital, inflow of capital (which can also be interpreted as foreign direct investment) has no effect on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short-run. However, in the long-run, inflow of capital can decrease the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. An increase in the price of the agricultural good can decrease the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the short-run.     

The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the interaction between the distributionof human capital, technological progress, and economic growth.It argues that the composition of human capital is an importantfactor in the determination of the pattern of economic development.The study demonstrates that the evolutionary pattern of the humancapital distribution, the income distribution, and economic growthare determined simultaneously by the interplay between a local home environment externality and a global technologicalexternality. In early stages of development the local home environmentexternality is the dominating factor and hence the distributionof income becomes polarized; whereas in mature stages of developmentthe global technological externality dominates and the distributionof income ultimately contracts. Polarization, in early stagesof development may be a necessary ingredient for future economicgrowth. An economy that prematurely implements a policy designedto enhance equality may be trapped at a low stage of development.An underdeveloped economy, which values equality as well as prosperity,may confront a trade-off between equality in the short-run followedby equality and stagnation in the long-run, and inequality inthe short-run followed by equality and prosperity in the longrun.     

Credit constraints,growth and inequality dynamics

This paper examines how credit constraints affect the dynamics of wealth and thereby the dynamics of capital and output growth. We develop standard Ak growth models that display transitional dynamics, contrary to general belief, once the complete credit markets assumption is relaxed. The mechanism is that credit constraints make individual productivity differences persist, which in turn leads to the persistence of income inequality. The dynamics of inequality is jointly determined with the dynamics of aggregate capital. The economy thus passes through a transitional period of inequality, individual and aggregate capital dynamics before it converges to a long-run balanced growth path. The application of the model to the analysis of intergenerational mobility and inequality dynamics suggests substantial economic and policy significance. In particular, introducing credit constraints to the Barro Ak model, public investment could have an indirect impact on growth via its effect on inequality and mobility.     

Human capital and income inequality in India: is there a non-linear and asymmetric relationship?

The article attempts to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between human capital and income inequality in India in a non-linear and asymmetric framework. To capture both long-run and short-run asymmetries, we have employed the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach using the relevant data from 1970 to 2016. Findings of the article suggest that education expansion acts as a major factor in reducing prevailing high income inequality, that is an increase in average years of schooling results in more equal distribution of income. In contrast, high economic growth, inflation and trade openness create unequal distribution of income. The asymmetric causality test results indicate that there is unidirectional causality running from female human capital, economic growth and inflation to income inequality. From a policy perspective, we suggest that education expansion should be used as a powerful tool to mitigate income inequality by emphasizing the quality of education. At the same time, policies geared towards social benefits, inclusive education, training for unskilled workers and price stability should be encouraged to attain fair income distribution in India.     

Social mobility and inequality in urban China: understanding the role of intergenerational transmission of education

China’s rapid economic growth since the late 1980s has been accompanied by great economic and social transformations, which have resulted in a sharp increase in income inequality. This article contributes to the literature of social mobility in China by examining the impact of parental education on the education of their children. Using the 1990 and 2000 Chinese Population Censuses, we employ nonparametric estimation strategies to provide a systematic investigation of intergenerational transmission of education in urban China. We find evidence of increasing parents–children educational correlations. Our results raise concerns regarding economic inequality in urban China as high intergenerational persistence of education is expected to be a barrier to equal opportunities in children’s education attainments and their future labour market outcomes.     

Foreign enclaves and economic development: A theoretical analysis

We consider an urban foreign enclave with sector-specific foreign capital in an otherwise mobile-capital Harris-Todaro model. We consider the taxation of foreign capital. A dynamic version of this model is considered. The long-run equilibrium and the comparative steady-state effects are analyzed. We get some interesting effects of reduction in tax rate on foreign capital on the short-run and the long-run equilibrium levels of domestic factor income and national income under some meaningful conditions.     

代际流动约束下生育率与收入不平等关系的国际检验

收入不平等问题和人口生育率过低问题是当下中国面临的两大难题,但目前理论界关于人口因素与收入不平等关系的研究,很少从生育率视角来考察以及考虑代际收入流动在其中的作用.文章从理论与经验两个方面来考察生育率对收入不平等的影响,理论模型表明:在关于代际收入流动的假设下,一个经济体中生育率的提高会使穷人比重提高,进而拉大收入不平等.进一步地,文章利用1970-2011年76个国家(地区)面板数据的经验研究发现:(1)总和生育率的提高会拉大收入不平等,如果每个妇女平均多生育一个孩子,将会使基尼系数增加0.025;(2)以出生率作为总和生育率替代指标的实证结果与基准结果基本一致,这说明不同生育率测算指标高度相关且可相互替代;(3)对于代际收入流动弹性越高、收入水平越低或生育率越高的国家(地区),其生育率提高对收入不平等的拉大作用越大.文章关于生育率对收入不平等影响的作用机制和异质性特征的考察,对于我国如何在实施"全面二孩"政策下寻求应对严峻的收入分配问题之策提供了国际经验和启示.     

Intergenerational Mobility and the Process of Development

This paper offers an explanation for some evidence that intergenerational earnings mobility is higher in more developed economies and that mobility is positively correlated with wage equality. In the model mobility promotes economic growth via its effect on the accumulation and allocation of human capital. Growth influences mobility via its effect on incentives to acquire education and its effect on liquidity constraints upon such acquisition. In the process of development mobility increases and the distribution of education becomes better correlated with ability. Redistributive policy has a negative effect on growth in developed economies and a positive effect in developing economies.