China's New Role in the International Financial Architecture

The rise of China is challenging the international financial architecture in a number of ways. This paper highlights three that are of critical importance: the challenge of absorbing massive Chinese savings; the incorporation of China into a cohesive global financial safety net; and the organisation of China's participation in funding the demand for international investment projects. The global financial architecture needs to be reformed. But what role should China play? The paper defines the options open to China and the opportunities and barriers it will face. We argue that China can work with the established economic powers in reforming the existing architecture. At the same time, China seeks cooperation in building new institutions and organisations that fill gaps in the existing arrangements. But no matter how international financial diplomacy plays out in the near term, deep financial and economic reform at home will alone deliver China a central role in the international financial architecture. Domestic reform could also attend to some of the challenges that currently plague China's impact on the system. The success or failure of these domestic reforms will be at the crux of the strength or fragility of the international financial architecture in the years ahead.     

Insider and Outsider Strategies of Influence: The BRICS’ Dualistic Approach Towards Informal Institutions

ABSTRACT

The challenge of ‘emerging’ countries in the 21st century has been conducted in a much more peaceful manner than in past eras when power transitions were most commonly accompanied by war. The hallmark of this peaceful transition has been the elevation of the G20, a forum in which established and emerging powers jointly deal with global economic issues and which – despite or precisely because of its informal character – has become the prime forum for global economic governance. Significantly, however, this new openness and flexibility of the international system and its increasing informalism have not only provided an avenue for emerging powers to be integrated into the inner circle of global economic governance, but have also allowed them to set up alternative institutions. By forming their own exclusive BRICS group in parallel to their membership in the G20, emerging powers have pursued a dualistic strategy that allows them to be simultaneously institutional ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. The article focuses on this seemingly ambiguous international behaviour and explains why the BRICS have opted for this dualistic approach. Far from being socialised into the established system, the oppositional psychology of the past has not disappeared completely.     

超越旧模式：试论新型大国关系的若干基础

＂新型大国关系＂理念的提出不是偶然的,它建立在新中国外交以和平共处五项原则为基础而建构的新型国家间关系的实践基础上。今后要使新型大国关系得以顺利发展,还必须深入探讨新型大国政治的、价值观的、哲学的、世界观和方法论等方面的基础。今天的中国既是政治大国,也成长为经济大国,不长的时间内将会成为一个科技大国,中国在本世纪内也必将成为一个文化大国,也就是说,中国将成长为综合实力强大的文明的、走社会主义道路的世界性大国。中国就是以这样的身份或者以这样的地位为基础,和西方世界的头子美国谈建构新型大国关系的。随着中国综合实力的越来越强,美国也将会更加愿意听取中国的新型大国观的提议,一定程度上会正面响应中国的倡议,走新型大国之路。     

New Protagonists in Global Economic Governance: Brazilian Agribusiness at the WTO

The existing international economic order has been heavily shaped by US power and the US has been a key driver of globalisation and neoliberal economic restructuring, prompting speculation about whether the rise of new developing country powers could rupture the current trajectory of neoliberal globalisation. This paper analyses the case of Brazil at the World Trade Organization (WTO), a core institution in global economic governance. In the last decade, Brazil successfully waged two landmark trade disputes against the US and EU and created a coalition of developing countries – the G20 – which brought an end to the dominance of the US and EU at the WTO and made their trade policies a central target of the Doha Round. Brazil's activism has been widely hailed as a major victory for developing countries. However, I argue that rather than challenging the neoliberal agenda of the WTO, Brazil has emerged as one of the most vocal advocates of free market globalisation and the push to expand and liberalise global markets. I show that Brazil's stance has been driven by the rise of its export-oriented agribusiness sector. This case demonstrates that business actors from the Global South are becoming significant new protagonists in global economic governance; they are taking the tools created by the states and corporations of the Global North – in this case, the WTO and its neoliberal discourse – and turning them against their originators. At the same time, their interests are being wrapped in and advanced through a discourse of development and social justice and a strategic mobilisation of the politics of the North-South divide.     

Economic policy uncertainty in the US and China and their impact on the global markets

The recent US-China trade conflict has caused substantial uncertainty in the global markets. What is the rationale of this conflict? Is the rising of Chinese economy imposing a realistic threat to the US-led post-war international system? Using economic policy uncertainty in each of these two key global economic players as a measure of policy stance, this paper builds a time series model following Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to estimate the influence of both the US and China on several key international markets, namely, stock, credit, energy and commodity markets. We find that, although China has become more influential, the US's dominant position still holds in all the markets. The results suggest that concerns regarding China's competition with the US in shaping the global world order are more likely to be driven by political factors rather than economic motives.     

Rising Powers in Complex Regimes: South African Norm Shopping in the Governance of Cross-Border Investment

ABSTRACT

This article offers a critical engagement with the literature on contemporary global power shifts and the phenomenon of ‘regime complexity’. It does so by focusing on South Africa's role in the governance of cross-border investment, and using this case to explore the strategies used by rising powers to pursue their strategic aims in institutionally complex and fragmented global governance regimes. This article situates an understanding of regime complexity within a critical constructivist literature that highlights the ambiguity of international norms and the relationship between power and strategic rhetorical action. It argues that complex regimes create space for agency and strategic action by states and highlights one specific strategy – norm shopping – that rising powers can use to legitimate their actions and challenge dominant norms in complex regimes.     

世界经济结构与秩序进入裂变期的中国战略选择

本文认为当前世界经济结构与秩序正在经历一场裂变而非简单的分化，未来中国将面临大结构裂变、小结构混乱、局部冲突加剧的外部环境。一方面，全球经济增长及技术创新速度放缓，全球化红利逐渐消退；另一方面，国家间经济分化的趋势愈加明显，收入分配恶化、人口老龄化、债务积累和资产泡沫等深层次结构问题不仅没有得到解决，甚至有所恶化，民粹主义和贸易保护主义由此得以激发。当前，现有的国际治理结构趋于瘫痪，而新的双边体系尚未构建，全球治理有陷入“真空”状态的风险，未来几年应警惕一些极端情况出现的可能性。     

Asia and the Reform of Global Governance

Asia's growing economic weight in the world economy is unlikely to produce substantial changes in global economic governance. National economic capabilities are not easily translated into influence over governance outcomes or institutions. Governments must deploy strategies of engagement with key institutions; incumbent powers will attempt counterstrategies. Coalition-building within and outside the region confronts substantial obstacles that reduce Asia's bargaining leverage. Asian preferences over institutional design and policies are unlikely to diverge from the status quo. A more pessimistic scenario includes resistance to global surveillance, spillover from other issue-areas, and defensive regionalism that undermines global institutions.     

China's Post-Listian Rise: Beyond Radical Globalisation Theory and the Political Economy of Neoliberal Hegemony

While China's rise has been much discussed, its meaning continues to be contested. This is true in radical international political economy, where, for example, it was the subject of (often polarised) debates between Giovanni Arrighi and David Harvey prior to Arrighi's death in 2009. This reflected a broader debate in IPE between development theory and radical globalisation analysis. The key point of contention is whether China's rise represents a challenge to or further consolidation of neoliberal hegemony on a global scale. This article critically scrutinises some of the key assumptions of the radical globalisation approach, specifically, that China represents another form of the ‘competition state’ whose development aspirations have been radically constrained by global ‘new constitutionalism’ and American monetary power so as to conform to neoliberalism. Deploying a structurationist approach to global governance and an eclectic/regulatory analysis of the Chinese state, I argue that China has challenged neoliberalism by projecting its growing power through constitutionalised global governance. In the face of (declining) American power, global constitutionalism has provided an opportunity structure that may help China consolidate its long-term strategy of consensual development. Far from anchoring ‘neoliberal hegemony’, global economic governance is increasingly central to its unravelling.     

International and Regional Cooperation: Asia's Role and Responsibilities

Asia has emerged from the global financial crisis as an important stabilizing force and an engine of global economic growth. The establishment of the G-20 gives Asian economies the global forum that they need to both represent their interests in global governance and deliver on responsibilities concomitant with their growing weight in the global economy. The region has a host of cooperation arrangements in APEC, ASEAN+3, and EAS (East Asian Summit), all with ASEAN as the fulcrum. They are huge assets, but they need to be repositioned to relate effectively to the G-20 process and other global arrangements. They also need to comprehend the politics of the changing structure of regional power. This paper discusses the challenges that Asia faces in aligning regional and global objectives in financial, trade, and other areas of cooperation, such as climate change and foreign investment. It argues that Asia is now a critical player in the global system and has a central contribution to make in strengthening global governance and international policy outcomes. The paper sets out ways to fill gaps in regional cooperation and link the agenda for regional cooperation more effectively to Asia's new role globally. This is essential to sustain Asia's superior growth performance, correct imbalances, and support the global economic system.     

流行病应急响应的国际合作——联合国领导下的禽流感防疫机制透析

随着跨国公共卫生安全在全球治理中分量日益加重,流行病应急响应（Epidemic preparedness and response）的国际合作逐步被提上了全球日程。2005年,人感染高致病性禽流感在全球范围内的大规模传播,国际社会尤其是联合国领导下的相关组织如何构建防疫机制来应对这一形势成为焦点。经过多年的努力,联合国领导下的禽流感防疫机制日臻完善,该机制主要包括核心领导机构、法理基础、重要应急措施以及相关国际行为体参与4个方面。同时,该机制的有效性与局限性并存,值得引起人们的注意。     

中国参与北极国际合作研究综述

1925年 《斯匹茨卑尔根群岛条约》的签订，标志着中国开始参与北极国际合作。当前，北极问题正逐步成为一个全球性问题，我国作为近北极国家，北极地区的气候、环境的变化将对我国的生态、经济等各方面产生重大影响，我国参与北极国际合作刻不容缓。本研究主要从参与北极科研、经济、治理合作三个方面对已有文献进行整理分析，以对我国参与北极国际合作进行整体概述。可以发现，当前对北极国际合作研究的相关文献有逐年增长趋势，但对北极国际经济合作进行综合分析的文献并不多，随着冰上丝绸之路建设提出及《中国的北极政策》颁布，对中国参与北极国际经济合作的研究将会是以后的一个重要方向。     

American Economic Relations with Asia

The USA and Asia have an enormous stake in each others' continuing prosperity. This outcome is linked to the preservation of the open international economic order, which in turn faces challenges at both the interstate diplomatic level and at the domestic political level. The global financial crisis is probably the worst since the Great Depression and the domestic politics makes it increasingly difficult to formulate a constructive trade policy. In the absence of adequate reform at the global level, the alternative could be further fragmentation into competing regional blocs. Asia holds the key, combining both dissatisfaction with existing global arrangements with the resources to reconstitute, at least at the regional level, an alternative set of institutions and practices. How Asia responds, acting to strengthen reformed global institutions or undermine them in favor of regional alternatives, will partly depend on the policies of the dominant global power, the USA.     

Changing International Financial Architecture: Growing Chinese Influence?

It is often said that the 21st century will be the Asian century. Based on population and gross domestic product projections, it certainly looks as if this will be so. Will the existing international financial institutions give more voices, votes, and top positions to Asia? Or will Asia create its own institutions that would rival the old architecture? This present paper argues, first, that China, and possibly India, will be in a position to be so influential that the international financial architecture may have to go through significant changes. Second, the three large crises in the last 20 years have made Asian countries more confident that they can manage capital flows by accumulating large foreign reserves and by adopting sound macrofinancial policies. After 2009, China started to push various initiatives that will amount to creating its own sphere of influence with new regional institutions in the future.     

Some Social Economics Concepts for Future Research

Under the guidance of a recrudescent nineteenth century ideology, the governance of the global economy has been profoundly altered in the past three decades; indeed, a veritable Great Capitalist Restoration has emerged. It is important to view the transitioning economies and emerging market economies as part of this massive shift in governance. The concept of economic surplus offers a useful perspective on the political economy of governance regimes. Karl Polanyi’s post-Marxian view of lives and livelihood provides important insight into the nature of the Great Capitalist Restoration, its ideologically-driven impetus, and its eventual foundering on the shoals of instability, insecurity, inequality, and social and ecological unsustainability. The ineluctable crisis of the Great Capitalist Restoration provides another opportunity to construct a viable democratic economic future, one that avoids the pitfalls that brought down the corporate-welfare state, and offers more than inauthentic, joyless commodity consumption. To build the Road to this Future, we will need a powerful heterodox economic analysis of agency and governance, guided by a vision of an economy which is subordinate to the lives it provisions.     

中美新型大国关系：全球体系与力量转换理论的探究

作为新兴的全球性经济和地缘政治大国,中国对于一些大国而言,不论是在全球体系上,还是在次全球体系（区域）上都是一个政策性的困难抉择。对于如何构建与这些在中国外交总架构中居于＂关键＂地位的全球性大国的关系,中国新一代政治领导人提出了无论是在国际关系理论上,还是在近现代国际关系实践上都具有创新内容的＂新型大国关系＂的构想。这一构想在很大程度上是邓小平关于＂和平与发展是世界两大主题＂论断的逻辑性结果,也是在中国经济和地缘政治实力日益增长的情况下作出的蕴含着中国古代哲学＂和而不同＂和战略智慧的＂不战而屈人之兵＂的理性选择。这一构想有助于中国坚定和平发展的崛起新路径,同时也为其他新兴大国共同参与全球体系重塑和世界新秩序的构建打开了便捷之门。新型大国关系的构建有可能使美国在中国经济外交与外交攻势的双重作用下,接受中国的＂和平崛起＂的理念,弱化视中国为安全与战略＂威胁＂的观念,从而有利于世界力量的和平转移与全球体系的和平转型。在此层面上,新型大国关系的构想无疑有助于打破人类几千年历史上大国崛起与战争形影相随的宿命,对推动全球力量的和平转移有着深远的意义。     

论G20机制化及中国在全球经济治理中的策略

2008年金融危机以来，G20成为最重要的国际经济协商机制。本文对（320机制化的动因和制约因素加以分析，认为G20机制化的主要动因是金融危机后世界力量格局和经济结构的变迁。而由于G20受到内部和外部的双重制约，其机制化前景并不明朗，很难突破原有的G8模式。本文在此基础上提出中国在全球经济治理中的策略。     

全球失衡下中国参与全球经济治理研究：基于SWOT分析框架

目前全球经济失衡问题日益严重,主要发达经济体陷入经济困境,财政政策空间缩小,常规经济政策失效。各种经济保护主义政策,如贸易保护、汇率干预、资本流动管制等在世界范围内蔓延。全球经济治理的关键是重组全球产业分工和贸易金融体系,但是由于中国长期存在巨额贸易顺差和外汇储备,因此解决中国的双顺差现象被发达国家视为全球经济治理的核心议题之一,而中国参与全球经济治理的能力亟需提升。本文尝试运用SWOT战略分析框架,对中国参与全球经济治理展开实证分析,分析中国的比较优势、劣势、机遇、威胁以及核心竞争力,进而为中国参与全球经济治理提供决策依据和理论支持,实现国家利益和战略意图。     

中国对外直接投资有助于沿线国家绿色技术创新吗——基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的检验

“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色转型给中国承担新使命、促进国内国际双循环和绿色发展创造了新机遇。基于中国对外直接投资（OFDI）特征,研究其对“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新的影响及作用机制。研究发现,中国OFDI主要通过绿色技术溢出机制、增长机制影响“一带一路”沿线国家绿色技术创新;该绿色技术创新效应随着互联互通合作水平提升而显著增强,且对沿线国家绿色技术创新的改善效果主要体现在高收入组国家。     

OPTIMAL FOREIGN BORROWING REVISITED

Foreign capital has become increasingly important in financing investment and growth in developing countries. Foreign capital flows, however, can be volatile as is evident from the recent financial crises. It has also recently been noted by researchers that there is little systematic empirical evidence that foreign capital contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. In this context, this paper attempts to theoretically reevaluate the borrowing behaviour of a developing economy that relies on foreign borrowing for its capital formation. In particular, this paper investigates the implications of different lending policies of international financial institutions. It is found that no matter whether the borrowing interest rate increases with the level of foreign debt per capita or with the foreign‐capital/total‐capital ratio, the economy always moves toward the stationary state. The result holds even when the representative agent regards the interest rate given as constant. This implies that foreign borrowing does help economic growth, irrespective of lending policies of international financial institutions.