自然灾害对长期经济增长的影响

本文构建了一个包含自然灾害的两部门内生增长模型。研究发现,自然灾害对长期增长的影响幅度取决于其造成的人力资本存量损失。同时,灾害发生会促使经济主体更多地投资于人力资本。本文应用跨国数据分析了自然灾害风险、经济增长和人力资本投资间的长期关系,发现自然灾害对宏观经济活动有重要影响,并主要通过影响人力资本投资行为发生作用。     

20世纪全球自然灾害及其防治

１９６５至１９９９年自然灾害发生的主要趋势早在１９８８年，位于布鲁塞尔的流行灾害研究中心就着手建立了世界各地自然灾害数据库并设有专人进行跟踪研究。在该数据库中，仅仅搜集了死亡人数不少于１０人、受伤人数不少于１００人的大型自然灾害的有关信息。研究中心还对３５年（１９６５至１９９９年）来世界发生的自然灾害进行了搜集、研究和整理。其中包括６３５８起对居民家庭造成重大损失的大规模自然灾害案例。该组织将火山喷发、极限温度、滑坡现象等信息列入了“其它自然灾害”类，大体上掌握了世界上类似灾害的发展趋势。专家们…     

分析水利工程施工中常见的问题和解决方案

我国高度重视水利工程项目这要是由于我国的地域条件引起的,由于我国地域辽阔、水力资源丰富,同时也是经常发生各种自然灾害的地点.因此,为了降低自然灾害引起的经济损失以及人员伤害,就需要加强水利工程的建设质量.除此之外,水利工程项目关系到民计民生问题,因此水利工程项目建设不仅需要我国的相关部门加强自身的认识,还需要制定相关的政策规范,大力发展水力资源.     

减轻自然灾害对农业生产的影响

吉林省由于地处气候脆弱区,加之地理因素复杂多样,以及对生态环境的破坏,导致多种自然灾害的频繁发生和不断加剧,严重地阻碍了农业和国民经济的稳步发展。一、主要农业自然灾害的类型和分布全省农业自然灾害主要有7种类型,其基本情况是:(一)低温冷害低温是最重要的农业自然灾害,分布和危害均大于其它灾害。据统计,白城、长春、四平、吉林、通化、延边地区近40年(1951-1990年)发生地区性冷害共27年,发生率高达67.5%,其中全省性大范围低     

加强云南边疆民族地区自然灾害应对的研究

随着近几年自然灾害的频繁发生,特别是云南边疆民族地区自然灾害频发,加强自然灾害应对是对边疆民族地区政府能力的考验,也是社会经济发展的关键和维护边疆民族地区和谐稳定的关键.本文结合云南省地方特点,积极探索了云南边疆民族地区在应对自然灾害中的经验和不足,提出加强自然灾害应对的措施,对于云南边疆民族地区在自然灾害中加强政府管理有着十分显著的现实意义     

法国应对气候灾害的研究及措施

法国是一个自然灾害频发的国家,为了应对气候灾害,法国长期致力于气候变化机理及其影响的基础研究和自然灾害预防研究,积极建立和完善各类保险制度,并创新性地开发金融工具应对自然灾害.     

自然灾害对河北省农业经济的效应分析

从分析河北省主要自然灾害特征入手,探讨自然灾害对河北省农业经济的影响;重点研究自然灾害对粮食产量与价格、河北省农民收入以及河北省农民消费水平的影响等问题;在此基础上提出加大政府投入、风险管理创新等对策,对河北省农业减灾和农业经济的发展有重要的指导作用。     

灾害经济损失的评估方法探讨

中国是一个自然灾害频仍的国家,最近十多年发生了多次特大自然灾害,其中一些灾害引起了全社会包括国际社会的关注。应该根据自然灾害的发生时间特征,对自然灾害引起的各种经济损失进行分类,并在此基础上分别对灾前经济损失、灾时经济损失和灾后经济损失进行评估。     

自然灾害经济学研究新进展

社会复杂度的显著增加导致自然灾害与社会经济之间的关系变得日趋复杂,早期的自然灾害经济学研究已不能满足当下的灾害治理需求。近年来,随着数据可得性的提高与信息技术的飞速发展,自然灾害经济学研究也进入新阶段,研究对象不再局限于区域层面上的直接经济损失,而是重点考察宏观或微观层面的间接经济影响。本文基于现有最新文献,首先总结了自然灾害经济损失评估领域的新进展,包括直接经济损失评估和间接经济损失评估;然后分别从长期经济增长、劳动力市场、消费者行为以及婚育意愿四个方面对自然灾害事件的间接经济影响进行梳理归纳;最后总结了现有研究存在的不足,以期为未来我国的自然灾害经济学研究提供有用的参考。     

我国循环经济发展现状与主要问题刍议

近年来,自然灾害愈演愈烈,我国在经济飞速发展的同时,巨大的人力、财力和物力投入或损失在了频频发生的自然灾害中.面对大自然的报复,环保经济、循环经济再一次被提上议程.文章论述了我国循环经济的现状及存在的主要问题,并在此基础上分析了我国循环经济发展缓慢的原因,并提出了解决途径.     

大衰退孕育着大创新——解读英国第一份以创新应对危机的报告

当前席卷全球的金融危机正深刻地影响和改变着世界经济的发展。英国作为危机的主要受创国之一，在应对危机方面有着独特的理论视角。由英国国家科技和艺术基金会出版的《应对衰退：创新如何拯救低靡》报告，成为英国以创新为主题促进社会长远转型的理论先声。报告提出危机孕育创新，应该从当前所采取的经济拯救计划中，孕育未来，促进社会长远转型，而不是简单的应对和危机管理，并第一次定义了这次危机是全球经济高度网络化的结果，必须构建新的网络结构予以应对（网络化衰退，网络化措施）。这些观点被理论界认为是介于凯恩斯主义和熊彼特创新理论之间的中间路线，提倡供需两方面推动，特别提倡创新是从长远角度增加需求和供给的现实选择。本文详细分析了报告的思想内涵，提出了在全球化、网络化背景下我国在制定创新政策时一定要具有全球视野等观点，对我国以创新应对危机具有一定的参考价值。     

Incentives and targets in hospital care: Evidence from a natural experiment

Performance targets are commonly used in the public sector, despite their well known problems when organisations have multiple objectives and performance is difficult to measure. It is possible that such targets may work where there is considerable consensus that performance needs to be improved. We investigate this possibility by examining the response of the English National Health Service to high profile waiting time targets. We exploit a natural policy experiment between two countries of the UK (England and Scotland) to establish the global effectiveness of the targets. We then use a within-England hospital analysis to confirm that responses vary by treatment intensity and to control for differences in resources which may accompany targets. We find that targets met their goals of reducing waiting times without diverting activity from other less well monitored aspects of health care and without decreasing patient health on exit from hospital.     

Vicious and virtuous circles — The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA

This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment for the UK and the US interwar period. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to mainly demand shocks and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks.     

Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market

Supply shocks in the global gas market may affect countries differently, as the market is regionally interlinked but not perfectly integrated. Additionally, high supply‐side concentration may expose countries to market power in different ways. To evaluate the strategic position of importing countries with regard to gas supplies, we disentangle the import price into different components and characterize each component as price increasing or price decreasing. Because of the complexity of the interrelations in the global gas market, we use an equilibrium model programmed as a mixed complementarity problem (MCP) and simulate the blockage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This enables us to account for the oligopolistic nature and the asymmetry of the gas supply. We find that Japan faces the most severe price increases, as the Japanese gas demand completely relies on LNG supply. In contrast, European countries such as the UK benefit from good interconnection to the continental pipeline system and domestic price taking production, both of which help to mitigate an increase in physical costs of supply as well as in the exercise of market power.     

Marine renewables: a new innovation frontier

The UK has a large marine renewable energy resource and has been developing a range of wave and tidal technologies for exploiting it. However, progress on moving to the commercial scale has been slow, in part, it is argued, as a result of the way this area of innovation has been supported by the government. This paper looks at the technologies and how they are being developed in the UK and elsewhere. It notes that, although the UK is still in the lead in terms of novel device development, unless better support is provided, the UK might lose out to device developers from other countries in the race to capture the very large global market that is opening up for the relevant technologies.     

Uk Corporate Acquisitions In Latin America In The 1990s: Lost Opportunities In A New Economic Environment

During the 1990s, foreign direct investment flowed into Latin America at an unprecedented rate. Capital inflows associated with privatizations and private mergers and acquisitions (M&As) rose steeply. Drawing on original firm–level transactions data, this article examines the extent to which UK enterprises participated in the Latin American privatization and private M&A boom. The authors conclude that, relative to their counterparts in many other major industrial countries, UK enterprises adopted a cautious stance, largely eschewing privatization opportunities and concentrating M&A activities on relatively few operations, sectors and countries, in order to strengthen product and market positions. Moreover, the strategic logic guiding the most important corporate acquisitions centred on gaining access to domestic markets rather than attempting to create global export platforms.     

US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.     

英国技术前瞻研究工作全景

英国的技术前瞻研究工作发源于1994年的技术预测计划,现已成为英国政府的一项常规工作。英国技术前瞻研究组挂靠在商业、创新和技能部下属的政府科学办公室,有优秀的研究队伍和稳定的经费支持,其开展的项目涉及新兴科学和技术面临的挑战和机遇以及围绕科技能发挥作用的重大社会问题,例如,全球变化、应对肥胖和洪涝灾害等。技术前瞻研究项目的研究报告和提出的有关建议,不仅对英国政府制定政策提供了重要参考,也对国际社会关于一些重大问题的判断和应对措施产生了较大影响。通过对英国技术前瞻研究工作的由来、已经完成和正在开展的项目、核心研究团队、项目的遴选标准和特点等进行系统介绍,并以案例的形式阐述了其前瞻研究项目对政府部门的影响,旨在为我国开展相关工作提供参考借鉴。     

SHOULD A MANDATORY SUBORDINATED DEBT POLICY BE INTRODUCED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM? EVIDENCE FROM THE ISSUANCE ACTIVITY OF BANKS AND BUILDING SOCIETIES

Current research is beginning to question the role and effectiveness of traditional rules‐based bank regulatory oversight in favor of incentive‐compatible regulatory design and market discipline and, in particular, mandatory subordinated debt market discipline. However, research on the suitability of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSNDP) has focused primarily on the United States. The primary aims of this article, therefore, are to examine the market for subordinated debt (SND) issued by UK credit institutions and to assess the suitability of introducing an MSNDP into UK banking regulation. A further contribution of this article is that it explores SND issuance and its characteristics at a bank level and, uniquely, considers them in relation to regulatory, structural, and economic events that either are specific to the UK or otherwise affect international banks. The article compares the UK findings with research on SND markets in the United States and Europe and, in so doing, raises concerns over whether an MSNDP for the largest global credit institutions would be feasible. Although the focus of this study is the UK banking industry, the country‐focused bank‐level approach provides conclusions that might be relevant to other countries considering the implementation of an MSNDP.(JEL G18, G28)     

Global influences on UK manufacturing prices: 1970-2000

We introduce the first consistent series of domestic-product and related import price indices at the industry level for the UK, using the data to analyse both domestic and international determinants of UK manufactured product prices. Foreign influences on UK prices in domestic markets are always present, but domestic cost movements dominate. We show that the pass-through of world-price, tariff and exchange rate changes into product prices is partial in general and varies markedly between product categories. Standard tariff and exchange rate theories overstate price responses to global pricing determinants and fail to allow for variation between industrial sectors. Such theories can mislead when used for policy analysis and prediction.