上市公司财务舞弊现象透析

20世纪90年代以来,中国乃至世界范围上市公司的财务舞弊行为日益活跃,给投资者及相关财务信息使用者带来了严重损失,也给资本市场带来很大冲击。应从多视角透视上市公司财务舞弊现象,总结其舞弊手段,制止并减少财务舞弊行为。     

基于贝叶斯分类的可疑金融交易识别研究

国内外反洗钱工作的大量实践表明,金融交易活动是洗钱犯罪行为的一个重要环节,通过分析金融机构的客户信息和交易数据,采用科学的方法识别可疑金融交易进而发现洗钱线索,已成为反洗钱研究的核心工作.文章将数据挖掘方法与金融领域知识相结合,首先通过对金融交易信息的多层次分析,总结出不同信息层次上的可疑金融交易特征;其次针对不同层次的交易信息,选择合适的数据挖掘方法,并结合客户背景资料,识别出可疑金融交易记录;最后依据贝叶斯判定原理,综合各层次的可疑信息,得到交易记录的整体可疑度,最终为反洗钱监测提供快速准确的参考.实验结果证明该方法是可行和有效的.     

DOES GNP EXAGGERATE GROWTH IN “ACTUAL” OUTPUT? THE CASE OF THE UNITED STATES

Measures of national product can be misleading because there is nonmarket production. There are also distortions due to transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. For 1950–89, this study recalculates output for the United States, adjusting for transactional activities and nonmarket production. Due to relatively rapid growth in transactional activities, GNP overstates output growth in the 1950s; because there was slow expansion of transactional activities in the early 1970s, GNP understates actual output. Since 1974, increases in transactional activities and shifts to market production lead GNP to exaggerate improvement of "actual" output per capita.     

The revenue potential of a financial transaction tax for US financial markets

This paper estimates the revenue potential of a financial transaction tax (FTT) for US financial markets. We focus on analyzing the revenue potential of the Inclusive Prosperity Act that was introduced in the US House of Representatives in 2012 and the US Senate in 2015. The tax rates stipulated in this Act include 0.5% (50 basis points (bps)) for all stock transactions, 0.1% (10 bps) for all bond transactions and 0.005% (0.5 bps) on the notional value of all derivative trades. We examine three sets of evidence to generate potential revenue estimates: 1) the levels of transaction costs in US financial markets over time and within the range of financial market segments; 2) the extent of trading elasticities under various trading conditions; and 3) the current level of trading activity in US financial markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that a US FTT operating at the tax rates stated above would generate about $220 billion per year, equal to about 1.2% of the current US GDP.     

收购方为什么要在兼并交易中雇用投资银行

本文考察了当兼并交易具有哪些特征时,收购方公司更可能会在兼并交易中雇用投资银行作为其兼并交易的财务顾问。研究结果表明,在下列情况下,收购方公司更有可能雇用投资银行作为其兼并交易的财务顾问：兼并交易较复杂,收购方公司的兼并交易经验不足,收购方公司仅收购目标公司部分资产或股权,兼并交易价格较高,兼并交易为敌意收购,收购方公司在金融行业运营,目标公司在很多行业经营。     

Economic Coordination across Divergent Institutional Frameworks: Dissolving a Theoretical Antinomy

Economic theory contains a significant theoretical antinomy. Markets are thought to secure coordination in self-organized fashion. In contrast, polities are portrayed as securing coordination through planning and administration. Doing this is to commit what Michael Resnick calls the ‘centralized mindset’, which is to attribute an observed order to some ordering agent. This article seeks to dissolve this theoretical antinomy by explaining how the same coordinative principles are at work throughout a society. All societies operate in generally coordinated fashion, due to the operation of transactional processes within societies. Markets and polities both operate through transactional relationships, though political transactions are constructed somewhat differently than market transactions. This article sets forth an approach to explaining coordination throughout a societal ecology where that coordination is achieved through different forms of transaction.     

关系交易、交易结构与经济绩效——东亚与中国经济解释的新视角

离散交易、关系交易和科层组织可看作交易一体化的一个光谱,离散交易和科层组织是两个极端,而关系交易是一种中间状态.这个一体化过程的关键变量就是交易间关系强烈的程度.交易间关系影响交易成本和交易方式.不同交易间关系形成不同的交易结构,包括交易的时空结构、信息结构、成本与收益结构和治理结构等.不同交易结构在不同的背景下影响经济绩效.本文超越契约范式,提出了交易结构的理论框架,并对东亚经济和中国经济问题做出了新解释.     

我国商品住宅交易费用测量研究——以2008年北京市商品住宅交易费用为例

房地产业作为第三产业,是交易服务部门,其中存在大量的交易活动,交易就会产生摩擦成本。由于房地产的特性及其行业市场交易的特征,房地产市场中的交易主要表现为权益交易,交易过程要受到制度的严格约束,所以其摩擦成本也是相对稳定的,可以通过定量分析测算。本文以房地产业为研究对象,按照房地产行业的交易部门特性及其所有费用来测算2003年至2008年我国房地产业的宏观交易费用;并选取商品性住宅为样本,根据诺思在人类行为理论基础上对交易费用和转换费用的划分,只测量通过市场的各种交易费用的启示,把商品性住宅开发分为生产阶段和交易阶段,生产阶段的交易费用部分和交易阶段的所有费用定义为交易费用,通过分析其价格构成,列出可测量的交易费用和转换费用单项,然后运用正向相加法和逆向剔除法,测量2008年北京市商品性住宅微观交易费用,为优化该行业效益提供实证分析基础。     

Credit in Times of Stress: Lessons from Latin America during the Global Financial Crisis

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis disrupted the provision of credit in Latin America less than in previous crises. This paper tests whether specific characteristics at both the bank and country levels at the onset of the global crisis contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in this region during the crisis. As shown, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity, and bank efficiency in the pre‐crisis period, played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks that had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit the most. Among country‐specific characteristics, we found evidence that balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short‐term debt) were key variables in explaining credit growth resilience.     

Did Open Access Integrate Natural Gas Markets? An Arbitrage Cost Approach

Several studies, using analyses that measure the correlation between prices in various markets, have argued that deregulation of natural gas pipeline contracts has reduced the transaction costs between natural gas markets. Correlations approaches, however, have potentially serious problems. Given these problems, this article estimates transactions costs directly. Deregulation is found to have lowered transactions costs to and from the Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas regions, but increased transactions costs from the Rocky Mountain area. Deregulation of pipeline contracts, by lowering the cost of using the market and therefore increasing demand for pipeline capacity, may therefore have differential impacts upon transactions costs between markets. This study implies that the transactions cost approach may be able to overcome several difficulties inherent in the correlations approach.     

“诺思第二悖论”及其新破解

在新制度经济学家看来,制度的一个重要作用是降低作为经济运行的"摩擦力"的交易费用。理论上,交易费用会随着一国制度的进步和完善而降低。但是,据瓦利斯和诺思测算,美国自1 870年到1 970年的1 00年间总量交易费用占GNP的比例不仅没有降低,反而越来越高了。这种理论(随着制度的进步交易费用应该越来越低)与实际(测量到总量交易费用越来越高)的矛盾被称之为"诺思第二悖论"。瓦利斯和诺思测量到的总量交易费用并非交易费用的全部,表面上测量到的总量交易费用上升了,但"理论上"的总量交易费用是下降的,即是说,随着制度的进步,不仅每笔交易的交易费用下降了,理论上的总量交易费用也是下降的,所谓"诺思第二悖论"是不存在的。     

Financial innovations and currency demand: Some new evidence

This paper presents new evidence on the importance of financial innovations for the demand for currency. We use Finnish data on credit card transactions to estimate a currency demand equation which fits the data very well, implies meaningful elasticities and does not suffer from obvious diagnostic problems such as parameter instability. As far as the key elasticities are concerned, it turns out that credit card transactions have a strong offsetting effect on currency demand. By contrast, inflation and tax evasion have only an insignificant demand effect.     

WILL RECENT HIGH GROWTH RATES OF MONEY REVIVE INFLATION?

From the end of 1984 through the middle of 1986, the monetary aggregate Ml growth rate has been extremely rapid by historical standards. The author argues that much of this rapid Ml growth reflects a transfer of funds out of banks' nonmonetary liabilities into banks' negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts. Prompting this transfer was the fall in market rates relative to rates offered on NOWs. In addition, the level of compensating balances that banks required of their corporate customers appears to have become more sensitive to market rates. Two measures are suggested to increase the usefulness of Ml targeting. The first is to use a shift-adjusted Ml series, that is, a series adjusted for the flow of funds between NOW accounts and time deposits of banks. The second is to adjust Ml targets in light of interest rate changes.     

Back to basics: The key to the velocity puzzle is M1

The recent instability in M1 velocity can be explained by recognizing that M1 consists of two types of transactions balances: those that are used for GDP transactions and those that are used for non-GDP transactions (mainly financial transactions). A model is developed to adjust for instability in the non-GDP transactions balancesvia measurements of portfolio adjustments between M1, non-M1 deposits, and nonbank assets. The model is much better in explaining post-1980 velocity instability, implying that portfolio adjustments induced by the rapid institutional change of this period are decisive factors in determining velocity changes. Also, an explanation of recent changes in V2 and V3 can be derived from the explanation of V1 changes.     

The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax

We provide a novel justification for a financial transaction tax for economies where agents face stochastic consumption opportunities. A financial transaction tax makes it more costly for agents to readjust their portfolios of liquid and illiquid assets in response to liquidity shocks, which increase both the demand for and the price of liquid assets. The higher price improves liquidity insurance and welfare for other market participants. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and find that the optimal financial transaction tax is 1.6% and that it reduces the volume of financial trading by 17%.     

论化解农村金融排斥的创新模式 ——林业碳汇交易引导资金回流农村的实证分析

目前,农村金融排斥已十分严重,极大地影响着农村经济发展,主要原因是政府出台的化解政策无法解决金融机构开展农村金融服务与实现利润最大化目标的矛盾。本文认为,发展林业碳汇交易是化解农村金融排斥的创新模式,能够引导资金回流农村,促进金融机构在支持林业碳汇交易的同时实现自身商业化可持续发展,并以广西珠江流域再造林林业碳汇项目为案例,对其化解农村金融排斥的成效进行了实证检验。开展林业碳汇交易顺应绿色环保潮流,具有持续化解农村金融排斥的作用。政府应大力促进林业碳汇交易发展。     

Information and capital flows: The determinants of transactions in financial assets

We show that a gravity model explains international transactions in financial assets at least as well as goods trade transactions. Our results support the hypothesis that informational asymmetries are responsible for the strong negative relationship between asset trade and distance. This result is very important for theories of asset trade, portfolio adjustments and home bias. We strengthen it by investigating the roles of explicit informational variables, as well as distance, in explaining separately cross-border trade in corporate equities, corporate bonds, and government bonds.     

Complementarities among Capability, Transaction and Scale-Scope Considerations in Determining Organizational Boundaries

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the conditions under which capability, transaction and scale considerations interact in determining organizational boundaries. It is argued that this interaction contributes to explaining the individual firm's performance and growth whenever cognitive competence is limited, radical uncertainty is present, some inputs and processes are indivisible and complementary, and some relevant knowledge is tacit, non-transmittable and characterized by set-up processes with high fixed costs. Under the above conditions, which are becoming increasingly important with the spread of the knowledge-based economy, the growth of the firm can be regarded as a consequence of managerial ability to set a strategy that exploits the mutually reinforcing advantages provided by the organizational coordination of capabilities, transactions and scale of processes, while limiting counteracting forces deriving from errors of strategy that are due to cognitive inertia and myopia, unclear allocation of rights and responsibilities, errors in identifying aims, imprecision in performance measuring, difficulty in focusing incentives, influence activities and problems of internal communication.     

The Japanese financial system in comparative perspective

Major elements of financial market structure in Japan and the U. S. are compared for the postwar period. It is found that the ratio of financial liabilities of the nonfinancial sector to GNP rose continuously in Japan, but was stable in the U. S. Intermediation was deeper in Japan than in the U. S., and the Japanese government's chief role was as an intermediary rather than as borrower or regulator. There was more competition in deposit collection in Japan than in the U. S. It is hypothesized that the depth and competition in Japanese financial structure helped raise savings, investment, and GNP growth.