The Role of Agricultural Productivity on Structural Change

Many authors have estimated and found that the productivity growth in agriculture is higher than that in non‐agriculture in today's richest countries. Several papers suggested that growth in agricultural productivity was essential for today's richest countries to take off early. However, few articles noticed that growth in agricultural productivity is critical in driving structural change in today's richest countries. This paper studies a two‐sector neoclassical growth model with subsistence agricultural consumption and shows that growth in agricultural productivity plays a more important role than growth in non‐agricultural productivity in governing massive structural change in today's richest countries.     

Income Level and Income Inequality in the Euro‐Mediterranean Region,C. 14–700

Was the Euro‐Mediterranean region at the time of the Roman Empire and its Western successor states more unequal than the European Union today? We use some scant evidence on personal income distribution within the Empire and differences in average regional incomes to conclude that the Empire was more homogeneous, in terms of regional incomes, than today's EU, and inter‐personal inequality was low. Moreover, income inequality was likely less around year 700 than in Augustus's time. The latter finding contrasts with a view of rising inequality as the Western Roman Empire dissolved.     

清末民初工商企业家群体认同意识的形成及其社会影响

清末民初的工商企业家在社会经济发展的同时,自身也在不断地强大起来.特别是他们在思想意识方面与以往有了很大的不同,最为突出者就是群体认同意识的产生和发展,有力地推动了民族资产阶级走向联合,其标志就是以业缘为特征的商人组织--商会的产生和发展.商会在社会和经济等各个领域都发挥了作为社会调节的中介组织的作用,沟通了政府与企业之间的联系,维护了企业的合法权益,同时也为社会做了大量的公益事业,成为推动当时社会进步的一股不可忽视的力量.     

The Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings at the Berlin Stock Exchange, 1870–96

Abstract. In this article, we evaluate underpricing of initial public offerings at the Berlin Stock Exchange between 1870 and 1896. In contrast to modern data, first‐day returns were extraordinary low and averaged less than 5%, even during the speculative period of the early 1870s. Moreover, standard underpricing theories based on asymmetric information, signalling mechanisms or litigation risk cannot explain underpricing. In contrast to modern markets, underpricing was higher during hot issue markets. Finally, we show that cash‐flow relevant information contained in the corporate charter was readily factored in the first market price. Thus, the historical capital market differed from today's market, but seems to have been efficient.     

Should Mobile Marketers Collect Data Other Than Geo‐Location?*

We take today's mobile marketing data landscape as a starting point and consider a duopoly model of third‐degree price discrimination in which firms can complement geo‐location information with data on consumer flexibility of varying quality. We show that, depending on consumer heterogeneity, higher‐quality flexibility data affect profits according to three different patterns. In equilibrium, both firms tend to acquire data if the data are of high quality, while only one acquires data if the data quality is low. Firms are likely to gain from additional data if consumers have similar preferences and/or when data are precise. Although social welfare (weakly) improves, consumers can be harmed.     

Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Historical National Accounts, 1840–19121

This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterized by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth.     

IT'S ABOUT TIME: EFFECTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT DEPENDENT COVERAGE MANDATE ON TIME USE

We examine how the Affordable Care Act's dependent coverage mandate (DCM) affected young adults' time allocation. Exploiting more accurate measures from the American Time Use Surveys, we find that the DCM reduced labor supply. The question then arises, what have these adults done with the extra time? Estimates suggest a reduction in job‐lock, as well as in the duration of the average doctor's visit, including time spent waiting and receiving care. The latter effect is consistent with substitution from emergency‐department utilization toward more routine care. Estimates suggest that the extra time has gone into socializing, and into educational and job‐search activities. (JEL I1, J2, H0)     

Chronicles of a democracy postponed

We explain a lack of civic culture in today's Russia, closely related to a democratic deficit in the country, by a path dependency which has originated at the critical juncture of transition to market economy. Suppression of democracy in the early 1990s to expedite unpopular reform exposed the new institutional order to oligarchic capture and set in motion a vicious circle of extractive economic and political institutions. The latter have been shaping views and attitudes in the society via institutional learning, continuously suppressing civic culture and solidifying social foundations for extractive institutions. We present evidence from the World Values Survey supporting the above conclusions.     

On the economics of regulated early closing hours: some evidence from Canada

In many countries such as Australia, Canada and Britain, the hours of daily retail operation are controlled through the political process. This paper tests one hypothesis for why regulation is adopted. The hypothesis is that early closing hours are a low cost institutional response to net social costs that can arise when time is used competitively to redistribute customers spatially. Competition produces this result when stores's marginal customers value longer shopping hours more highly than the average customer. Evidence is presented on the characteristics of 45 Ontario cities that had the choice of whether or not to adopt early closing hours and logit analysis is used to test the model's predictions. The estimates of the probability of choosing early closing hours are then used to test the model's prediction on store density. In general, the evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that municipal control over shopping hours in Ontario is appropriate.     

西方财政学在近代中国的传播

西方财政学在近代中国的传播历经清末、北洋政府和国民政府几个历史时期,日渐深入。清末,西方财政学的传播基本上仅限于常识层面;北洋政府时期,深入到理论层面;国民政府时期,西方财政学在中国的传播达到相对成熟的阶段。西方财政学在近代中国的传播呈现出鲜明的特征:首先,瓦格纳强调以财政政策改善收入分配状况的财政理念对国人的影响特别大;其次,西方财政学的传播服务于近代中国的财政改革运动。     

High corruption income in Ming and Qing China

We develop an economic model that explains historical data on government corruption in Ming and Qing China. In our model, officials' extensive powers result in corrupt income matching land's share in output. We estimate corrupt income to be between 14 and 22 times official income resulting in about 22% of agricultural output accruing to 0.4% of the population. The results suggest that eliminating corruption through salary reform was possible in early Ming but impossible by mid-Qing rule. Land reform may also be ineffective because officials could extract the same rents regardless of ownership. High officials' incomes and the resulting inequality may have also created distortions and barriers to change that could have contributed to China's stagnation over the five centuries 1400–1900s.     

WELFARE REFORM AND CHILDREN'S EARLY COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT

In this paper, we use a dynamic structural model to measure the effects of (1) single mothers' work and welfare use decisions and (2) welfare reform initiatives on the early cognitive development of the children of the NLSY79 mothers. We use PIAT‐Math scores as a measure of attainment and show that both the mothers' work and welfare use benefit children on average. Our simulation of a policy that combines a time limit with work requirement reduces the use of welfare and increases employment significantly. These changes in turn significantly increase children's cognitive attainment. This implies that the welfare reform was not only successful in achieving its stated goals, but was also beneficial to welfare children's outcomes. In another policy simulation, we show that increasing work incentives for welfare population by exempting labor income from welfare tax can be a very successful policy with some additional benefits for children's outcomes. Finally, a counterfactual with an extended maternal leave policy significantly reduces employment and has negative, though economically insignificant, impact on cognitive outcomes. (JEL I38, J22, J18)     

A dynamic model of altruistically-motivated transfers

This paper studies a dynamic Markovian game of two infinitely-lived altruistic agents without commitment. Players can save, consume and give transfers to each other. We identify a continuum of equilibria in which imperfectly-altruistic agents act as if they were a perfectly-altruistic dynasty which is less patient than the two agents themselves. In such equilibria, the poor agent receives transfers until both effectively pool their wealth and tragedy-of-the-commons-type inefficiencies occur. We also provide a sharp characterization of strategic interactions in consumption and transfer behavior. This provides new insights relative to existing two-period models. It allows us to differentiate between the Samaritan's dilemma – e.g. a child runs down its assets inefficiently fast in anticipation of transfers – and what we refer to as the Prodigal-Son dilemma – e.g. parents do not leave an early bequest, anticipating a child's profligate behavior.     

High corruption income in Ming and Qing China

We develop an economic model that explains historical data on government corruption in Ming and Qing China. In our model, officials' extensive powers result in corrupt income matching land's share in output. We estimate corrupt income to be between 14 and 22 times official income resulting in about 22% of agricultural output accruing to 0.4% of the population. The results suggest that eliminating corruption through salary reform was possible in early Ming but impossible by mid-Qing rule. Land reform may also be ineffective because officials could extract the same rents regardless of ownership. High officials' incomes and the resulting inequality may have also created distortions and barriers to change that could have contributed to China's stagnation over the five centuries 1400–1900s.     

Ethnic Discrimination in Germany's Labour Market: A Field Experiment

Abstract. This paper studies ethnic discrimination in Germany's labour market with a correspondence test. We send two similar applications to each of 528 advertisements for student internships, one with a Turkish‐sounding and one with a German‐sounding name. A German name raises the average probability of a callback by about 14%. Differential treatment is particularly strong and significant in smaller firms at which the applicant with the German name receives 24% more callbacks. Discrimination disappears when we restrict our sample to applications including reference letters which contain favourable information about the candidate's personality. We interpret this finding as evidence for statistical discrimination.     

风景区公共厕所的设计创新研究 —— 以深圳市中科院仙湖植物园公厕改造为例

随着中国经济的快速提升，休闲旅游产业得到了蓬 勃发展，人们对旅游景区游赏环境及服务配套设施的要求亦日 渐提高，作为衡量一座城市文明指数的重要指标——公厕品质 需要被重新关注。从环境设计学角度出发，以深圳市仙湖植物 园公厕改造为例，从建筑设计的景观性、生态性、透气性，室 内设计的整体性、简洁性、艺术性，设施设备的标准化、国际 化、人性化，以及景区文化特色植入等方面进行研究，分析当 今景区公厕所面临的问题，提出景区公厕应是具有场地精神、 与周边环境相生共荣、功能性极强的景观生态建筑，为当今风 景区公厕建设和改造提供借鉴。     

论清代民间慈善活动的三种类型

清代民间慈善活动可以分为个人救助、宗族救助和民间慈善机构救助三类,它们在其救助的动机、范围、条件等方面各有不同。它是整个清代社会救助体系中的一个组成部分,弥补了清朝政府社会救助能力之不足。相对于清朝政府社会救助而言,它具有注重救助的血缘性、地缘性和友情性的特点,这种特点表现在选择救助对象的优先顺序上,就是由亲至疏、由近至远。     

Married women's labor supply and economic development: Evidence from Sri Lankan household data

Women's labor supply in Sri Lanka has increased steadily since the early 1990s following economic reforms, but remains well below the level predicted by national income, a feature shared by a number of Asian and Latin American countries that have undergone similar reforms and economic growth. To understand the microeconomic determinants of women's work in Sri Lanka's growing economy, this paper estimates a binary‐choice model of married women's labor supply using household survey data spanning a 23‐year period. Decomposition and cohort analysis reveal that women have been drawn into the workforce through falling fertility rates, rising tertiary education, and declining income effects among younger generations, but other factors have undermined this positive trend. Educational attainment reduces married women's labor supply except at the tertiary level, consistent with social stigmas associated with married women in non‐white‐collar employment. The strict sectoral segregation of married women by education level supports this hypothesis. In addition, growth has been concentrated in low‐skilled sectors with self‐employment more prevalent, reducing employment prospects of educated women and prompting their labor force withdrawal. This suggests it is the structure of economic development, rather than speed, that matters for women's labor force activity.     

无锡近现代“山水城市”建设探索的实践与启示

山水城市、公园城市是当前城市规划和风景园林领域的热词，在中国几千年的园林与城市发展历史上，却并不是个全新事物，山、水、城、园的融合始终是中国城市建设的基本原则和理想目标。山水城市建设是一个持续发展、没有完形的动态过程。在近现代历史上，无锡曾经在城市山水资源开发和园林建设方面，有过2次系统的创新实践，这些探索上承历史、下启当代，与今天的山水城市建设理论与实践具有很高耦合度。对此开展梳理和分析，既还原了无锡山水城市建设的历史过程和真相，也为推进当代山水城市建设提供了借鉴。     

董其昌书画理论对现代水墨画的启示

中国画经历过魏晋的自然、唐代的雄奇、两宋的精微、元代的散淡,发展到明朝直至董其昌的出现,引领着明清文人写意精神,成就中国画史又一具有深刻人文精神之画风。董其昌的书画对我国后世书画艺术的审美较为深刻、别树一帜,是当时书画艺术的风向标。对董其昌的书画理论进行了深入分析,并从“笔、形、境、写”等四个方面探析了董其昌的书画理论对现代水墨画的启示。