加入WTO对我国区域经济发展的影响

加入WTO将使我国正在实施的区域发展战略面临巨大挑战。因为对我国经济增长产生更大作用的境外企业投资仍将集中于东部地区 ,而且这种集中程度还会更高 ;生产要素市场化改革进程加快 ,将使要素继续流向收益高的东部地区 ;国际市场的扩大 ,延缓了东部劳动密集型产业向中西部地区的转移进程 ,并在一定程度上影响了东部企业进入中西部地区投资和兼并。因此 ,在短期内中西部与东部的发展差距将进一步扩大。     

产业地理集中与地区经济差距

文章通过对1990年～2005年中国人均GDP省际差距及其变化进行产业分解,认为1990年以来我国地区经济差距的决定性因素是第二产业的地区差距,而第二产业向东部地区的集中又是推动我国地区经济差距扩大的主导性因素。20世纪90年代以来,随着以制造业为主的非农产业向东部沿海地区集中,中西部地区逐渐成为"边缘化"区域,中国的地区经济差距也由此持续扩大。基于此,文章认为缩小地区差距的关键是推进中西部地区制造业发展,缓解非农产业地区分布的不平衡状况。     

从区域经济差异角度看我国的人口流动

伴随着我国区域经济发展差异化的不断扩大,出现了大规模跨省区的人口流动.尽管影响人口流动的因素很多,但当前引起我国区域间人口流动的主因素乃是经济因素,经济利益是激发人口流动的强大动力.改革开放以来,我国不同区域间经济发展水平不一,地区间、城乡间差距拉大,使得人口迅速以较大规模由欠发达的中西部地区向发达的东部沿海地区流动.因此,要引导人口合理流动,缩小区域经济差异.     

市场规模、地区投资吸引力与地区经济差异的逻辑解释及实证

计量分析发现,地区市场规模是当前我国地区投资吸引力的主要决定因素,即使我们能够将中西部地区的软硬投资环境建设得同东部地区同等优良,东部同样会因为其占绝对优势的市场规模而成为投资的重点地区.然而,由此造成的我国生产向东部地区的进一步集中并不应该成为我们担心的理由,我们应该担心的是,在生产进一步向东部地区集中的同时,由于制度限制,我国人口不能相应地向东部地区集中,造成生产与人口分布的进一步失衡,从而引起更严重的地区经济差异.     

我国区域经济发展战略思想

我国区域经济发展战略及其实施，大体上可分为三大阶段。历史表明，既不能寄希望以人为手段短期内缩小区域经济发展水平让的差距，也不能置区域间发展差距于不顾，长期使政策和投资向东部沿海地区过度倾斜，从我国区域经济发展的基本态势出发，既要重点发挥东部沿海地区作用，又要加快中西地区开发，使其各展所长，优势互补，协调发展。     

2011/2012年我国区域经济发展态势分析

2011年我国区域经济增长速度普遍放缓。从地区比较看,我国中西部经济增长速度连续第5年超过东部,远西部地区经济发展水平继续超过各省区平均水平,东西部差距继续向趋缓方向发展。从增长、总量和发展水平三大区域格局看,区域增长速度再次变为"远西部、大中部、新东部"排序格局,东西部增长速度差继续逆向扩大;区域经济总量继续呈"东部大、中西部小"格局;区域经济发展水平继续呈"新东部和远西部高、大中部低"格局。2012年在世界金融危机继续深化,特别是欧洲主权债务危机继续发酵演变的情况下,我国区域经济可能继续趋缓,各地区增长速度大体在15.0%—7.5%之间;区域差距将继续保持"相对差距略有缩小、绝对差距扩速放缓"态势;2012年我国区域经济将呈现各地区经济增速继续有所放缓、一些重大基础设施项目建成使区域投资环境得到改善、经济和城镇化重点地区将呈现新变化等基本趋势,为保持区域经济协调发展良好势头,提出进一步制定和出台一些急需的空间规划、出台有利于中小城镇发展的经济社会政策、利用结构性减税的机会建立我国地区差异化税收体制、建立全国性生态补偿机制等若干条对策建议。     

区域经济非均衡协调发展政策及其影响

改革开放后,中国实施以非均衡为重点的区域协调政策,优先发展区位优势明显的东部地区,带动其他区域共同发展,最终达到不同地区协调发展目的。区域经济非均衡协调发展政策在中国经历了两个不同的发展阶段,呈现出5点基本特征。极大地促进了东部地区的发展,使资源向东部地区集中,同时对中西部地区经济的发展起了很大带动作用。     

中部崛起问题的再思考

我国的中部地区东临我国经济发展速度最快的东部地区，西濒我国资源充裕经济贫困的西部地区，是连接我国东西部地区，对建立我国区域间良好的产业合作交流机制和实行区域经济协调发展战略有着重要作用的核心枢纽要地。对于中部地区来说，如何利用自己的区位优势来选择正确的发展战略，对于加快区内经济的发展以缩小地区经济发展上的差距是十分重要的。本文将利用研制的区域间投入产出模型，从实证角度研究中部与各区域的经济关系，对中部的崛起问题进行再思考。     

2001—2010年中国人口与经济的空间集聚与均衡特征分析

采用增量分析、不均衡指数等统计分析方法,从地市级尺度对2001—2010年我国人口与经济的空间集聚特征与均衡过程进行了讨论,研究表明:①我国人口和经济的空间变化过程存在较强的规律性,主要呈沿海、沿江等主要空间发展轴及中西部核心节点城市集聚分布态势;②该时期东部地区人口集聚态势明显,中、西部及东北部地区人口比重多数呈减少趋势,而中西部地区GDP比重在这一时期有所上升,恰恰与其人口比重增减趋势相反,从而导致东部与中西部地区人口和经济要素集聚的势能差缩小,使得我国区域人口和经济总体上向空间相均衡方向演进;③我国"东强西弱"的国土空间发展格局并没有发生根本性转变,东西区域差距在较长一段时间内仍占主导地位。     

“十二五”初期我国区域经济发展态势分析

2011年我国区域经济增长速度普遍放缓。从地区比较看,我国中西部经济增长速度连续第5年超过东部,远西部地区经济发展水平继续超过各省区平均水平,东西部差距继续向趋缓方向发展。从增长、总量和发展水平三大区域格局看,区域增长速度格局再次变为"远西部、大中部、新东部"的排序,东西部增长速度差继续逆向扩大;区域经济总量格局继续呈"东部大、中西部小"态势;区域经济发展水平格局继续呈"新东部和远西部高、大中部低"态势。2012年在世界金融危机继续深化,特别是欧洲主权债务危机继续发酵演变的情况下,我国区域经济可能继续趋缓,各地区增长速度大体在15.0%～7.5%之间;区域差距将继续保持"相对差距略有缩小、绝对差扩速放缓"态势;2012年我国区域经济将呈现各地区经济增速继续有所放缓、一些重大基础设施项目建成使区域投资环境得到改善、经济和城镇化重点地区将呈现新变化等基本趋势,为保持区域经济协调发展良好势头提出进一步制定和出台一些急需的空间规划、出台有利于中小城镇发展的经济社会政策、利用结构性减税的机会建立我国地区差异化税收体制、建立全国性生态补偿机制等若干条对策建议。     

An Evaluation on the Effects of the Policy of the Great Campaign of Western Development of China in the First 10 Years Based on the Kuznets Regional Inverted-U Theory

In order to reduce the regional differentials or narrow the gap in economic development between eastern and western areas and prevent the intensification of contradictions resulting from the regional inequality during the development process, the government of China launched the Great Campaign of Western Development （GCWD） in 2000. In this paper, we will evaluate the effects of the first 10 years＇ GCWD and use the latest Chinese annual data from 1978 to 2010 to investigate the problem of regional differentials in the development process, evaluate the effects of GCWD policy and test whether there is a regional Kuznets inverted-U curve in the regional development of China. The result shows that there are both good and bad news： the good news is that the inverted U-shaped curve of absolute differential between eastern and western areas finally emerges （the previous studies showed that the inverted-U curve did not appear and the differentials between eastern and western areas became worse） and the bad news is that the differential is in the first half of the inverted U-shaped curve in our choice of time span （1978-2010）, that is, it is still in the situation of deterioration, and the turning better point will emerge in 2025. Although the western areas have benefitted from GCWD, the absolute gap has been still widened. To narrow the gap, the western areas should accelerate the industrial development and the government should adjust the policy and make more efforts to support the development of the industry in the western areas, especially cultivate and support the development of the western characteristic and advantageous industry rather than just supporting the construction of infrastructure in the western areas.     

Urban–rural gap and poverty traps in China: A prefecture level analysis

Urban–rural gap and regional inequality are long-standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This article examines the dynamic behaviours of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The analysis is conducted by using a distribution dynamics approach, which have advantages in examination on persistence, polarization and convergence clubs. The results show that persistence and immobility are the dominant characteristics in the income distribution dynamics. The prefectural urban and rural areas converge into their own steady states differentiated in income levels. This pattern of urban–rural gap also exists in three regional groups, namely the eastern, central and western regions. Examination on the dynamics of the poorest areas shows that geographical poverty traps exist in both urban and rural prefectural areas. Our results indicate that more policy interventions are required to narrow down the urban–rural gap and to eliminate the poverty traps in China.     

应用DEA方法评测中国各地区健康生产效率

本文将地区健康系统视为健康生产决策单元,通过数据包络分析方法(DEA)对地区健康生产进行效率评测和影响因素分析。我们发现:各年份处于生产前沿面上的省份各不相同,而远离前沿面的省份基本一致,总体而言平均健康生产效率不断提高;根据效率和产出可以将全国划分为六类具有不同的效率提高路径的地区;健康生产效率在东、中、西部,东、西部和东、中部之间存在显著差异;地区人口密度与健康生产效率之间存在显著的相关关系,公共健康投入比例与健康生产效率之间呈现并不十分显著的负相关关系,这可能是公共财政支出不当偏重倾向的结果;城乡居民在支付能力与健康生产效率之间的关系上恰好相反,这可能与城乡之间截然不同的收入水平和公共服务待遇相关,因而应当采取有针对性的医疗卫生政策。     

Finance and inequality: a study of Indian states

Although a large literature exists on finance and economic growth, few studies have empirically examined the relationship between finance and inequality. Using grouped national household sample survey data on monthly household consumption expenditure at the sub-national level for the years 1999–2000 to 2006–2007, we examine the relationship between Financial Development (FD) and rural and urban inequality in India. The results indicate that FD is associated with a reduction in inequality, but only in the urban areas. Further, inequality is found to be higher in the richer states compared to less developed and low income states, and as state income increases, inequality also increases both in the rural and urban areas. Finally, our results show that increase in population per bank branch leads to higher inequality in urban areas but decline in rural areas.     

Estimation of Concentration Measures and Their Standard Errors for Income Distributions in Poland

Measures of concentration (inequality) are often used in the analysis of income and wage size distributions. Among, them the Gini and Zenga coefficients are of greatest importance. It is well known that income inequality in Poland increased significantly in the period of transformation from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. High income inequality can be a source of serious problems, such as increasing poverty, social stratification, and polarization. Therefore, it seems especially important to present reliable estimates of income inequality measures for a population of households in Poland in different divisions. In this paper, some estimation methods for Gini and Zenga concentration measures are presented together with their application to the analysis of income distributions in Poland by socio-economic groups. The basis for the calculations was individual data coming from the Polish Household Budget Survey conducted by the Central Statistical Office. The standard errors of Gini and Zenga coefficients were estimated by means of the bootstrap and the parametric approach based on the Dagum model.     

加速东部沿海欠发达地区发展的有效路径研究

依据众多的经济发展理论分析沿海欠发达地区存在着五方面的问题：技术创新与制度创新能力弱,生产力发展水平低下;农业比重过大,产业缺陷较明显;地理位置偏僻,中心城市的经济辐射作用相当有限;经济发展落后,人口规模相对偏低;平均国民收入水平低,消费与投资均陷入不足的恶性循环。因此,应该改善当地的交通条件,促进制造业产业集群的形成,加快沿海欠发达地区城市化发展进程,扶持服务业,大力发展旅游业,以加速东部欠发达地区的发展。     

Using data envelopment analysis approach to estimate the health production efficiencies in China

By using Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we treat the health production system in a certain province as a Decision Making Unit (DMU), identify its inputs and outputs, evaluate its technical efficiency in 1982, 1990 and 2000 respectively, and further analyze the relationship between efficiency scores and social-environmental variables. This paper has found several interesting findings. Firstly, provinces on frontier in different year are different, but provinces far from the frontier keep unchanged. The average efficiency of health production has made a significant progress from 1982 to 2000. Secondly, all provinces in China can be divided into six categories in terms of health production outcome and efficiency, and each category has specific approach of improving health production efficiency. Thirdly, significant differences in health production efficiencies have been found among the eastern, middle and western regions in China, and among the eastern and middle regions. At last, there is significant positive relationship between population density and health production efficiency but negative relationship (not very significant) between the proportions of public health expenditure in total expense and efficiency. Maybe it is the result of inappropriate tendency of public expenditure. The relationship between abilities to pay for health care services and efficiency in urban areas is opposite to that in rural areas. One possible reason is the totally different income and public services treatments between rural and urban residents. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust health policies and service provisions which are specifically designed to different population groups. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2006, (7): 92–105     

INCOME INEQUALITY IN GERMANY DURING THE 1980s AND 1990s

The paper estimates a variety of inequality measures for three sub-samples of the German population using cross-sectional data on equivalent income from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The sub-populations under consideration are residents of West Germany including foreigners for the years 1984 to 1996, residents of East Germany for the years 1990 to 1996 and a comprehensive German population for the years 1990 to 1996. Bootstrap methods are applied to test whether changes in inequality are statistically significant. In order to account for panel attrition and over-sampling, sample weights are incorporated into the estimation procedure. The empirical results confirm the relative stability of the West German income distribution. While income inequality in West Germany has generally not altered in an economically relevant way over the period 1985 to 1996, inequality in East Germany has increased after reunification. Despite this increase, inequality remains substantially higher in the western part of the country. Convergence of eastern mean income to the western level generally overcompensated the rise in inequality in East Germany, so that the level of inequality in unified Germany is lower in 1996 than in 1990.     

中国的机会不平等水平与特征研究*——兼论城市规模的影响

中国经济快速增长的同时，收入差距也在不断扩大。本文依托Roemer的“环境—努力”二元分析理论，采用事前参数法，利用中国劳动力动态调查数据（CLDS）测度近年来我国机会不平等的变化趋势；对机会不平等进行了分解，分析了户籍、家庭、性别等因素对机会不平等的影响程度，探讨城市规模、城市的区位差异和行政等级差异对机会不平等的影响。研究表明，中国的机会不平等程度呈上升趋势，从东部沿海到西部内陆存在明显上升的地区差异，在城乡、性别和年龄等方面都呈现出不同的特征；且与城市规模之间呈倒U型关系，直辖市、省会等高等级城市倾向于有更低的机会不平等水平。     

A TREATMENT OF ABSOLUTE INDICES OF POLARIZATION*

Absolute polarization indices remain unchanged under equal absolute augmentation in all incomes. This paper identifies the class of absolute polarization indices whose orderings of alternative income distributions agree with the rankings generated by nonintersecting absolute polarization curves. We explore the possibility of using the Kolm (1976) – Blackorby‐Donaldson (1980) ethical absolute inequality index in polarization measurement. We establish that although inequality and polarization are dissimilar concepts, different absolute inequality indices can be employed to design alternative absolute polarization indices. A numerical illustration is provided using Indian data and it is shown that inequality and polarization are different issues in income distribution analysis.