产学研协同创新成本分摊机制研究

产学研协同创新是推动技术创新的一条重要路径,但创新成本分摊机制是影响产学研协同合作的一个重要问题。通过构建充分竞争市场下的多阶段博弈模型,从成本分摊机制角度探究了如何有效推进产学研协同创新。通过模型扩展与求解,获得成本分摊后的帕累托改善以及产学研协同创新的可行路径。结果表明：企业和学研方基于自身收益最大化而进行的成本分摊协商无法实现帕累托最优,而轮流出价博弈模型下的成本分摊形成机制能够有效改善各方收益,并使整体收益达到帕累托最优,因此是一条现实可行的帕累托改善路径,其中,各方获得的收益增量与耐心程度的对比有关。     

军民融合企业技术创新生态系统协同机制研究

本文在共生视角下研究军民融合企业技术创新生态系统的协同演化机制,分析政府干预下"学研机构—军民融合企业"的主从博弈策略,探讨"政企学研"组成的技术创新生态系统在独立生存合作、协同创新合作和联盟共存合作三个阶段的运作机理.主要考虑两种政府干预情境:一种是针对一般技术创新,政府不进行补贴激励;另一种是针对高精尖技术创新,政府会对其进行补贴激励.针对两种政府干预情境和三个演化阶段,采用主从博弈分别确定学研机构的技术创新程度和技术转移费用以及军民融合企业的边际收益.研究表明:学研机构和军民融合企业采用成本分担机制共同进行技术研发,有助于提高技术创新程度;协同创新合作阶段的成本分担机制可使创新生态系统获得帕累托改进;在大部分情形下不存在使学研机构和军民融合企业都满意的创新成本分担契约;联盟共存合作阶段的利润共享机制可以消除创新生态系统的双重边际效应,获得帕累托最优.     

风险投资中的双向道德风险与帕累托有效的合约区间-讨价还价的视角

该文在双向道德风险的模型下,从讨价还价的角度,研究了风险投资家和创业者之间的帕累托有效合约区间的确定问题.该文首先在给定条件下分析了帕累托有效合约区间的构造条件,并在此基础之上探讨了双方的努力效率和风险投资家的声誉动机对合约的帕累托有效区间的影响,以及投资额对帕累托有效合约的可行区间的影响,进而从理论角度解释了现实风险投资合约中存在的部分现象.     

治理交通拥堵中的政府失灵

"治理交通拥堵"作为一种公共物品,市场机制不能有效解决,政府组织却责无旁贷。文章认为,跟市场失灵一样,我国政府在治理交通拥堵时也出现了失灵,未能使得治理交通拥堵的边际社会成本等于边际社会收益;虽然实施"政府再造"能矫正政府失灵,但受限于我国现行政治体制,治理交通拥堵的帕累托最优状态无法实现,而通过限制私家车的行车里程和在行车收费上区别对待也能实现帕累托改进。     

风险投资中的双向道德风险与帕累托有效的合约区间-讨价还价的视角

本文在双向道德风险的模型下,从讨价还价的角度,研究了风险投资家和创业者之间的帕累托有效合约区间的确定问题。本文首先在给定条件下分析了帕累托有效合约区间的构造条件,并在此基础之上探讨了双方的努力效率和风险投资家的声誉动机对合约的帕累托有效区间的影响,以及投资额对帕累托有效合约的可行区间的影响,进而从理论角度解释了现实风险投资合约中存在的部分现象。     

一体化解构与企业合作绩效:理论探讨与实践启示

要解开企业归核化背景下资产专用性投资与一体化解构并存悖论谜团,需要考虑企业跨资源合作治理机制。在传统机制设计理论模型中增加一项承诺约束,可以分离出三种情境下的最优治理模式,并分别对应着Williamson关于从市场到科层的最优治理谱系区间。不同治理模式选择取决于资产专用性和交易关系复杂性两个变量,二者共同决定了合作绩效的大小。通过合作治理的设计,能够在多重帕累托改进均衡中寻找一种最优改进,且证明合作治理的最优解高于纵向一体化治理,说明合作对福利的改进空间比纵向一体化更大。     

论人力资本投资的限度

人力资本投资并非多多益善,它有一个合理的限度,即人力资本投资存在一个帕累托最优的水平。该文认为既定资源在物质资本投资上的边际报酬与在人力资本投资上的边际报酬相等,且人力资本给每一个厂商带来的边际报酬相等时,人力资本投资便实现了帕累托最优。这就要求全社会在人力资本与物质资本上的投资齐头并进;并且,只要政府在人力资本上的投资不超过帕累托最优水平,则个人的自利行为就会自动地填补"帕累托缺口"。     

"帕累托效率原理"与构建和谐社会

文章通过对帕累托改进原理内在逻辑的分析,结合中国经济改革实践的讨论,在肯定阿马蒂亚·森对帕累托最优原理适用于"从地狱到天堂"的质疑具有合理性的同时,认为帕累托改进原理具有巨大的普适性,"从地狱到天堂"的景象应通过,也可以通过帕累托改进而加以避免.在此基础上,文章还就中国经济改革如何调整帕累托改进的选择方向,努力实现社会和谐,提出了若干政策建议.     

基于博弈论视角的贸易分析

从博弈论的角度分析了不完全竞争条件下的国家之间的贸易,通过分析在不同情况下企业、国家的收益,说明自由贸易可以给各国带来收益,并且通过国家间的合作,可以使关税降到比较低的水平,达到整个社会的帕累托最优。     

三峡工程筹资模式分析

三峡工程具有巨大的外部性.其现有的筹资模式不能实现资源配置的帕累托最优和分配的公平,存在政府行为的政府成本-收益约束与社会成本-收益约束不对称、中央政府行为与地方政府行为的社会成本-收益约束不对称.三峡工程筹资渠道及筹资模式需要不断改进,移民补偿问题应引起特别关注.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.