中国金融抑制问题的政治经济学

本文从利益集团理论的视角对中国金融抑制问题给出了一个政治经济学解释,认为中国金融抑制的制度安排内生于给予改革当中利益受损集团金融补贴的需要,为了维护转轨时期的社会稳定,降低改革成本,在财政能力持续下降的情况下,中央政府通过加强对金融体系的控制,以利差租金和货币发行收益为主要路径向国有企业、政府财政提供金融补贴。但近年来,随着居民收入在国民收入分配中所占比例的下降,由金融抑制引发的社会风险的累积、金融效率损失等问题使得中国如果继续维持金融抑制政策将产生巨大的社会成本和效率损失。     

Toward state funding of elections in india? a comparative perspective on possible options

This paper explores the issue of introduction of state funding of elections in India, focussing on the incentive structures of electoral finance reforms. After summarising the main points in the history of political finance reform in other democracies, and in India, the historical pattern of fund-raising and election expenditures of major parties in India is surveyed. Six electoral finance reform options for India are outlined. It is argued that the time is now ripe for state funding of elections from the point of view of the incentives facing parties and donors.     

TAX-PRICE REFORM WITH DIRECTLY UNPRODUCTIVE PROFIT-SEEKING (DUP) ACTIVITIES*

This paper explores the extent to which insights available from existing writings on directly unproductive profit-seeking (DUP) activities in international trade modify rules of tax and tariff reform in normative public economics and examines in what way these should affect advice on tax policy usually given to developing countries. The analysis proceeds by developing two models. The first incorporates revenue seeking directly into a standard open economy public finance model and examines whether analysis of policy reform and economic costs of distortionary tariffs must be modified. The second includes a political component in the form of lobbying for subsidies – the expenditure side of the budget – as well as a normative economic component that raises taxes – the revenue side – to finance the social costs of such lobbying. The model can be used to determine the effects of politically determined expenditures on tax setting. The analysis shows that the grammar of welfare-theoretic arguments that underlies the reform and design of tax and tariff structures is robust to the inclusion of DUP activities of the type considered here. In particular, the latter lend no presumption in favor of uniformity in tax and tariff structures. It is argued that existing policy advice on tax and tariff reform derived from models where DUP activities have traditionally played no role continues to be appropriate when account is taken of formal treatments of DUP-type phenomena extant in the current literature.     

Environmental Protection for Sale: Strategic Green Industrial Policy and Climate Finance

Industrial policy has long been criticized as subject to protectionist interests; accordingly, subsidies to domestic producers face disciplines under World Trade Organization agreements, without exceptions for environmental purposes. Now green industrial policy is gaining popularity as governments search for low-carbon solutions that also provide jobs at home. The strategic trade literature has largely ignored the issue of market failures related to green goods. I consider the market for a new environmental good (like low-carbon technology) whose downstream consumption provides external benefits (like reduced emissions). Governments may have some preference for supporting domestic production, such as by interest-group lobbying, introducing a political distortion in their objective function. I examine the national incentives and global rationales for offering production (upstream) and deployment (downstream) subsidies in producer countries, allowing that some of the downstream market may lie in nonregulating third-party countries. Restraints on upstream subsidies erode global welfare when environmental externalities are large enough relative to political distortions. Climate finance is an effective alternative if political distortions are large and governments do not undervalue carbon costs. Numerical simulations of the case of renewable energy indicate that a modest social cost of carbon can imply benefits from allowing upstream subsidies.     

取消燃气和电力补贴对我国居民生活的影响

分析取消能源补贴对居民生活的影响是完善能源补贴改革的重要基础。本文首先应用价差法估算了中国2007年燃气和电力的补贴规模;其次考虑到中国居民贫富与区域差异,将城乡居民按收入水平分为10组,引入"能源预算"概念并设计"影响指数"、"承受力指数"等核心指标,结合投入产出模型,从直接和间接两方面综合研究了取消燃气和电力补贴对不同收入阶层居民生活的影响,分析结果表明无论从直接影响还是间接影响的角度,取消燃气和电力补贴对低收入阶层居民,尤其是农村低收入居民的冲击更大。最后基于实证分析结果,提出阶梯化定价机制与补贴转移等能够让低收入阶层居民真正获益的能源补贴改革建议。     

Political Pressure or Rent Seeking? The Role of Mutual Funds in China's Split Share Structure Reform

In this paper, we provide further evidence on the role of mutual funds in China using the split share structure reform as an experiment. We find no supportive evidence for the political pressure hypothesis of Firth et al. (2010), but provide a set of unique results that are consistent with rent‐seeking behaviour by mutual funds. In addition, fund‐level governance can weaken the negative relationship between compensation ratio and fund ownership. Finally, we document a specific form of private benefits that can contribute to rent‐seeking behaviour by mutual funds.     

制度-垄断地租与中国地方政府竞争:一个马克思主义分析框架

竞争性地方政府作为改革以来形成的重要制度形式,在相当程度上决定了中国社会主义市场经济体制的特点。本文不仅承续了既有文献中将地方政府的经济动机归于租金,并将土地财政视为地方政府利用租金开展战略投资的观点,而且试图在一个马克思主义框架内进一步发展这一观点。为此我们对租金的生产性利用和国家的经济作用的关系做了初步探讨,并将大卫·哈维的制度-垄断地租理论运用于分析中国地方政府围绕营建环境的投资活动。本文的基本结论是,中国地方政府在以土地财政为核心的战略投资中,充当了租金的生产性分配者和使用者的角色,并因之嵌入了原本由企业之间的竞争所带来的相对剩余价值生产过程,形成了中国经济特有的相对剩余价值生产双重结构,从而在相当长的时间内造就了世所罕见的高投资率,推动了中国经济的持续快速增长。     

Has Nguyen Phu Trong's Leadership Curbed Economic Reform? Economic Reform Trends in Vietnam

This paper argues how the features of Vietnam's political‐administrative system and their recent changes have affected economic reform, particularly reform of state‐owned enterprises. After the 12th Party Congress in 2016, the Party Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong's administration has seemed to exaggerate its conservative and totalitarian‐looking rule in the political arena. In contrast, the economic reform policies introduced by Trong's administration seem more transformative and progressive. This paper suggests that this contradiction must indicate changes in the policies relating to the state management of economic entities and/or a disguised form of reform to retain state influence over economic management, both of which tend to end up with pervasive rent‐seeking practices.     

The social cost of rent seeking in Europe

Direct measurement of the social cost of rent seeking is impeded by non-observable and non-reported activities. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to compute the social cost of rent seeking in Europe. Our estimate is based on competition among interest groups for privileges provided by governments, including income transfers, subsidies, and preferential tax treatment. The model, which is calibrated to the euro area as a whole and also to individual euro member countries for 1980–2003, performs well vis-à-vis the data. We find that significant proportions of GDP are extracted as rents available to be sought by rent seekers.     

Was Mancur a Maoist? An Essay on Kleptocracy and Political Stability

Much of Mancur Olson's work explored the link between government structure and economic development. This paper provides a framework for thinking about this link that exposes both the powerful insights and the deep tensions in Olson's work. In The Rise and Decline of Nations Olson argued that instability was good for democratic accountability because it upset entrenched interests. In contrast, after the fall of the socialist regimes in Europe and the Soviet Union, Olson argued that the stability of a single autocrat or "stationary bandit" was superior to the competitive rent seeking of competing "roving bandits." I argue that there is a real inconsistency in Olson's thinking on the role of stability and change in political life; I do this by developing the connections between Olson's classic Logic of Collective Action and his subsequent writing. The paper concludes by building on Olson's insights to point the way to a more complete analysis of democracy and transition.     

政府研发补贴促进企业创新了吗

政府补贴能否促进企业创新一直存在争议。与以往从资源视角探讨政府补贴与企业创新关系的研究不同，基于信号理论视角，以2012—2016年沪深A股非金融类上市公司为研究样本，通过剔除非研发补贴的噪音并控制样本自选择偏误，实证检验中国转型经济背景下，政府研发补贴对企业创新的微观政策效应，以及企业层面制度因素（产权性质）和区域层面制度因素（制度环境）对该效应的调节作用。研究发现，政府研发补贴释放的积极信号能够帮助企业获取外部创新资源，有效促进企业创新；相比于国有企业，政府研发补贴对非国有企业创新的激励效应更强；制度环境越好，政府研发补贴对企业创新的激励效应越强。研究理论丰富了科技创新政策有效性和信号理论相关研究。同时，研究发现，政府应继续加大对企业创新活动的补贴额度，不断深化所有制改革，为企业创新营造良好的外部制度环境；另外，企业还应充分发挥政府研发补贴信号的杠杆效应，拓宽外部创新资源获取渠道。     

The politics of technology management: influence and tactics in project selection

It is observed that technical information presented in aformalized way is used as ‘rational’ evidence to suport one particular point of view during the process of project selection. This ‘political’ action increases the chances of a favoures course of action being carried through provided that its output lends support to the actor's prior viewpoint. It is argued that the framework provided that its output lends support to the actor's prior viewpoint. It is argued that the framework provided by the rational actor model gives a biased and unrealistic view of the selection process because this political dimension is ignored. In the evidence presented here, and attempt is made to identify the discriminating factors associated with the supportive use of technical information at the level of the individual, the organization and the project. The data indicate that technical information is most likely to be used in a political manner by mature managers working in relatively small, low-tech companies. It is concluded that the supportive role played by technical information is political and symbolic in nature.     

Constitutional politics within the interest-group model

I examine constitutional politics using the interest-group model of politics. Constitutional economics argues that rent seeking is inevitable in majoritarian democracy and genuine reform is possible only at the constitutional level. By implication the constitutional equilibrium must differ from the political equilibrium. I examine reasons that such a difference might exist but find weak prospects for a general-interest victory over the special interest in constitutional politics. Although implicit constitutional change (for example, through Supreme Court reinterpretation) and explicit violation are substitute means of altering the constitution, the former dominates the latter. This suggests that a third factor participates in constitutional politics in addition to the general and special interests, which is support for the Constitution itself. Effective rules to restrain rent seeking need to ensure the congruence of the constitutional and general interests.     

Political Competition, Rent Seeking and the Choice of Environmental Policy Instruments

This paper investigates the impact of political lobbying on the choice of environmental policy instruments. It is argued that the prevalence of pollution emission standards over more efficient policy instruments may result from rent seeking behaviour. The model further predicts that when an emission standard is used to control pollution, rival political parties have an incentive to set the same standard. There is therefore a convergence of policies. Moreover, it is shown that emission taxes are more likely to be supported and proposed by political parties which represent environmental interest groups. This feature appears to accord with the observed support for environmental taxes by Green parties in Europe, Australia, New Zealand and elsewhere.     

Analyzing the effect of advanced agriculture development policy

This paper broadens the scope of current theoretical studies, divides rural agriculture into two sectors—advanced and traditional, and takes into consideration the land factor and the urban informal sector. Under the assumption that wages in the advanced agricultural sector are higher than in the traditional agricultural sector, this paper analyzes the effect of policies to promote advanced agricultural development with the comparative static method. The main conclusions of this paper are: wage subsidization of the advanced agricultural sector, in addition to having the same economic impact as interest subsidies on the advanced agricultural sector, could also increase the land employment in the advanced agricultural sector and reduce that in the traditional agricultural sector. Therefore, the effect of wage subsidizing policies is stronger than that of interest subsidies, while land rent subsidies for the advanced agricultural sector have the same economic effect as wage subsidies.     

On the Sale of Production Rights and Firm Organization

It is argued that the owner of production rights may not be indifferent across organizational structures of producers. In particular, the owner may prefer to grant some or all of the rights to labor-managed firms. The reason is that such firms adopt a less competitive strategy and so generate more industry rent, which the owner can capture as fee payments. A mixed duopoly may be particularly attractive. The conflict between revenue-raising and the pursuit of efficiency as objectives of government privatization programs is highlighted, and the relevance to East European reform discussed.     

The politics of technology management: influence and tactics in project selection

It is observed that technical information presented in aformalized way is used as 'rational' evidence to suport one particular point of view during the process of project selection. This 'political' action increases the chances of a favoures course of action being carried through provided that its output lends support to the actor's prior viewpoint. It is argued that the framework provided that its output lends support to the actor's prior viewpoint. It is argued that the framework provided by the rational actor model gives a biased and unrealistic view of the selection process because this political dimension is ignored. In the evidence presented here, and attempt is made to identify the discriminating factors associated with the supportive use of technical information at the level of the individual, the organization and the project. The data indicate that technical information is most likely to be used in a political manner by mature managers working in relatively small, low-tech companies. It is concluded that the supportive role played by technical information is political and symbolic in nature.     

Do tax subsidies for retirement saving affect total private saving? New evidence on middle-income workers*

We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark to estimate the effect of tax subsidies on total private saving. We present new evidence on individuals in the middle of the income distribution and show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. The reform changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers in Denmark. We find that for each unit of reduced saving in this pension scheme, only 64 percent is substituted to other types of saving.     

Putting in politics: A review of economic models with endogenous determination of policy

The new political economy includes formal models in which the notion of general equilibrium extends to political as well as economic processes. Policies are determined endogenously. This paper first reviews models in which trade taxes and subsidies are tied to the optimal tariff of the median voter, to the interests of industry-specific lobbies and an incumbent politician, or to the attempts of competing parties to maximize the probability of their election. The paper then briefly considers models focusing on fiscal policy, macroeconomic stabilization, and the sequencing of economic reform. At the end of the paper, several critical questions are raised.     

政府补贴强度对资源型企业实质性创新产出的影响

政府补贴如何高效激励企业创新产出是当前的重要课题。基于补贴强度异质性视角,以2012—2018年我国资源型上市公司经验数据为观测对象,利用门限回归模型、动态面板数据模型等计量方法,实证检验政府补贴强度对资源型企业实质性创新产出的影响效应,结果表明,政府补贴对资源型企业实质性创新产出的门限效应显著,存在补贴强度的最优区间。但基于企业政治关联异质性的分析表明,补贴的最优区间在国有企业、具备政治关联的民营企业和不具备政治关联的民营企业中存在显著差异。进一步研究发现,政府补贴主要通过提升企业创新意愿和能力,促进企业加大研发投入强度,进而提升实质性创新产出,但目前资源型企业创新成果还未能普遍实现经济价值转化。