当前中国大学生就业难的理性分析

运用社会学和经济学的观点对中国高等教育发展中的教育观念，国家产业结构和高等教育的结构现状进行了分析。根据经济禀赋结构的现状，提出了要发展有比较优势的劳动密集型产业和现代服务产业，这些产业可以提供大量的就业岗位，解决就业压力；配合当前产业结构调整，高等教育要调整结构，要培养适合经济发展所需的人才以缓解结构性失业；以科学的高等教育发展观为指导，以人为本，树立战略指导思想，正确处理规模、结构、质量、效益的关系，使高等教育健康可持续发展。     

试论中加高等教育模式的比较分析

加拿大高等教育的国际化和全球化，独特的管理模式，以学生为本的管理服务理念。深入人心的素质教育是其高等教育模式的特点。文章通过对中加两国高等教育模式多方面的比较。找到中国高等教育的不足之处，借鉴加拿大诸多成功的发展经验，让中国的高等教育发展走得更快更好。     

我国高等教育大众化发展现状与对策研究

从1999年实行扩招开始，中国的高等教育已走了上大众化的道路，但其通过精英教育的体制来完成高等教育大众化的策略存在着根本缺陷。从分析目前我国高等教育大众化的问题入手，以西方尤其是日本高等教育的大众化为借鉴，对中国高等教育的大众化提出了相关的建议与对策。     

论地方综合性大学评估的意义

教学评估可有力地促进学校建设和发展，对高校明确办学方向、改善办学条件、完善教学管理有重要作用。本文主要以新疆财经大学为例，分析高等教育大众化背景下的高等教育评估的效果，重点阐述高等教育评估对提高教育质量和办学效益、发展高等教育事业所具有的重要意义。     

未来十五年福建高等教育适龄人口预测

2005年福建高等教育毛入学率已达到19％，其高等教育发展规模已步人大众化阶段。未来福建高等教育发展走向如何？其高等教育发展规模的潜能如何？我们知道人口是教育发展的必要前提，高等教育适龄人口则是高等教育持续发展的潜在能源，在当今高校招生人数不断增加、高校规模不断扩大的情况下，未来十五年福建高等教育发展规模是否能可持续发展？本文特以福建省2000年人口普查资料0-90岁组的人口数为依据，运用生命表技术预测福建省未来十五年高等教育适龄人口数，分析其变化趋势并与全国未来十五年高等教育适龄人口的发展变化进行比较，发现福建未来十五年高等教育适龄人口下降幅度远远高于全国的下降幅度；并针对该问题，对福建高等教育的发展提出几点建议。     

纵观布鲁贝克的《高等教育哲学》

本就布鲁贝克的《高等教育哲学》一书中对以高深学问为逻辑起点的两种高等教育价值观进行了阐述，并分析了由此引发的高等教育哲学中的学术自治和学术自由等基本问题，认为两种高等教育哲学观趋向平衡并在实践中可以实现统一。     

增强非财政性投融资能力：缓解高等教育投入不足的重要途径——基于云南高校的探索与分析

投入不足、投资效益低、渠道狭窄一直是困扰我国高等教育发展的深层次问题。在保持国家投资主体不变的同时，积极探讨多渠道、多方式办学的新路子，以解决困扰高等教育投资长期不足的问题，促进高等教育的发展。     

福建省建设高等教育强省的战略意义、挑战与推进路径

在深刻认识建设高等教育强省战略意义的基础上，通过分析福建省建设高等教育强省面临的学科发展水平和科技创新能力亟待提升、高层次人才短缺、支持产业发展能力还需提高、高等教育办学经费投入不足等挑战，提出以国家“双一流”建设为着力点、学科建设为龙头、高质量的产教融合为抓手、优化治理机制为突破口、闽台高等教育融合为特色，统筹推进高等教育强省建设，不断提升高校服务经济社会发展的能力，增强高校的办学动能，谱写福建高等教育新篇章。     

端正认识，实现民办高等教育政策新发展

随着社会主义市场经济体制的逐步建立，以及非公有剖经济比例的逐步扩大，也需要进一步促进民办高等教育的不断发展。这种发展，首先是政策的发展，这就需要端正认识、修正不合理政策，以真正实现民办高等教育政策的发展，最终实现民办高等教育的发展。     

陕西民办高等教育产业竞争力的实证分析

民办高等教育产业带动了地区相关产业的发展，培养了大批劳动力和专业人才，对地区经济发展作出了突出的贡献。本文选取陕西民办高等教育产业作为实证分析的案例，以波特的“钻石模型”为分析手段，对陕西民办高等教育产业的竞争力进行定性分析。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

The greenhouse effect: Damages,costs and abatement

The buildup of so-called greenhouse gases in the atmosphere — CO₂ in particular-appears to be having an adverse impact on the global climate. This paper briefly reviews current expectations with regard to physical and biological effects, their potential costs to society, and likely costs of abatement. For a worst case scenario it is impossible to assess, in economic terms, the full range of possible non-linear synergistic effects. In the most favorable (although not necessarily likely) case (of slow-paced climate change), however, it seems likely that the impacts are within the affordable range, at least in the industrialized countries of the world. In the third world the notion of affordability is of doubtful relevance, making the problem of quantitative evaluation almost impossible. We tentatively assess the lower limit of quantifiable climate-induced damages at $30 to $35 per ton of CO₂ equivalent, worldwide, with the major damages being concentrated in regions most adversely affected by sea-level rise. The non-quantifiable environmental damages are also significant and should by no means be disregarded.The costs and benefits of (1) reducing CFC use and (2) reducing fossil fuel consumption, as a means of abatement, are considered in some detail. This strategy has remarkably high indirect benefits in terms of reduced air pollution damage and even direct cost savings to consumers. The indirect benefits of reduced air pollution and its associated health and environmental effects from fossil-fuel combustion in the industrialized countries range from $20 to $60 per ton of CO₂ eliminated. In addition, there is good evidence that modest (e.g. 25%) reductions in CO₂ emissions may be achievable by the U.S. (and, by implication, for other countries) by a combination of increased energy efficiency and restructuring that would permit simultaneous direct economic benefits (savings) to energy consumers of the order of $50 per ton of CO₂ saved. A higher level of overall emissions reduction — possibly approaching 50% — could probably be achieved, at little or not net cost, by taking advantage of these savings.We suggest the use of taxes on fossil fuel extraction (or a carbon tax) as a reasonable way of inducing the structural changes that would be required to achieve significant reduction in energy use and CO₂ emissions. To minimize the economic burden (and create a political constituency in support of the approach) we suggest the substitution of resource-based taxes in general for other types of taxes (on labor, income, real estate, or trade) that are now the main sources of government revenue. While it is conceded that it would be difficult to calculate the optimal tax on extractive resources, we do not think this is a necessary prerequisite to policy-making. In fact, we note that the existing tax system has never been optimized according to theoretical principles, and is far from optimal by any reasonable criteria.During the academic year 1989–90 Dr. Ayres was at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.During the summer of 1989 Mr. Walter was a member of the Young Scientists' Summer Program at IIASA.     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.