中国外汇制度对货币政策的影响

探讨中国外汇制度对货币政策的影响,我们首先应当知道货币政策、外汇制度这两个词的内涵和外延,然后再具体分析中国的外汇制度和货币政策,最后来分析影响.我国现采取的是有管理的浮动汇率制,并且在市场化的进程中我国正在逐步放松外汇管制.将有管理的浮动汇率制简化为固定汇率制和浮动汇率制进行分析,我们发现,在固定汇率制下货币政策因冲销干预而失效,在浮动汇率制下货币政策作用能得到强化.     

我国现行汇率制度的政策效应分析

现行人民币汇率制度,名义上是以供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,实际上是一种钉住单一美元的固定汇率制度.在此汇率制度下,中国货币政策不仅丧失了有效性,制约了利率市场化改革,而且增加了人民银行干预外汇市场的负担和成本.要发挥货币政策对实现内部均衡的积极作用,就应改革现行人民币汇率制度.     

发展中国家钉住汇率制的选择与困境

国际经济环境的变化,使汇率制度经历了固定汇率制-浮动汇率制-固定汇率制-各国自由选择汇率制度的演变历程.在当今国际社会中,各国根据自己的实际情况选择适合于本国的汇率制度,从而使汇率制度呈现多样化的特点.经济学史上,对于固定汇率制和浮动汇率制孰优孰劣的争论由来已久,至今尚无定论.……     

发展中国家钉住汇率制的选择与困境

国际经济环境的变化,使汇率制度经历了固定汇率制-浮动汇率制-固定汇率制-各国自由选择汇率制度的演变历程.在当今国际社会中,各国根据自己的实际情况选择适合于本国的汇率制度,从而使汇率制度呈现多样化的特点.经济学史上,对于固定汇率制和浮动汇率制孰优孰劣的争论由来已久,至今尚无定论.     

固定与浮动汇率制度下货币投机的难度比较分析

在主要经济体货币竞争性贬值风险加大,国内政策对增长减速的容忍度增加的双重背景下,外汇制度的改革将成为今年货币政策的重点。其中很重要的一项政策便是进一步扩大人民币汇率的波动区间。本文通过建立模型,对两种极端汇率制度下投机性货币攻击的盈利模式进行了比较,验证了一国受到货币的投机性攻击时,浮动汇率制优于固定汇率制的结论。     

汇率制度选择"角点解假说"的兴衰

根据各国的自身特点,每个国家的汇率制度各有不同;不过总体上可以分为固定汇率制、浮动汇率制和介于两者之间的中间汇率制三种。强调汇率制度应该选择“舍中间,取两端”的“角点解假说”,在90年代得到迅速盛行,但是近年来由于阿根廷危机的爆发以及许多新兴市场国家纷纷调整原来的汇率体制,使得“角点解假说”受到很大的冲击,这主要是由于其理论缺陷所致。     

汇率-资本流动性的制度安排和财政-货币政策的有效性研究

笔者通过拓广的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,并突破了传统的"三元冲突"汇率制度安排理论的研究路径,考虑引入资本流动性相对强度系数的概念,又在固定汇率制下引入"冲销"干预政策因素,提出了一个在固定和浮动汇率及不同资本流动性制度安排下财政-货币政策有效性指数曲线的新假说,对汇率-资本流动性制度安排对于宏观经济政策(财政-货币政策)综合有效性的影响问题做了一些较为深入的探讨.笔者认为,我国作为一个经济大国应尽可能地拥有宏观经济政策的自主权,考虑到我国当前金融市场体系尚不够完善,货币政策传导机制还存在严重障碍,所以在近期财政政策的权重应大于货币政策,从而在我国汇率制度改革过程中,为保留宏观经济政策的自主权,在加快放宽人民币汇率弹性的同时必须加强相应的资本管制.     

发展中国家钉住汇率制的选择与困境

国际经济环境的变化,使汇率制度经历了固定汇率制-浮动汇率制-固定汇率制-各国自由选择汇率制度的演变历程。在当今国际社会中,各国根据自己的实际情况选择适合于本国的汇率制度,从而使汇率制度呈现多样化的特点。经济学史上,对于固定汇率制和浮动汇率制孰优孰劣的争论由来已久,至今尚无定论。但是,近年来东南亚金融危机和阿根廷经济危机的爆发,使得经济学界开始重新审视许多发展中国家和地区实行的钉住汇率制度。本文试图通过对发展中国家和地区维持钉住汇率制度所需条件以及东南亚国家和阿根廷经济危机成因的分析和比较,揭示其发生危机的深层原因,以对钉住汇率制在发展中国家和地区的经济发展中的作用有一清醒的认识。     

汇率制度的选择问题

汇 率制度的选择是当前国内外经济学家所关注和研究的一个热点问题。特别是对于转型国家和发展中国家 ,汇率制度的选择对其宏观经济的稳定和发展起着至关重要的作用。 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,前苏联、东欧国家从计划经济向市场经济转型过程中出现的宏观经济振动 ,墨西哥金融危机、东南亚金融危机 ,以及近期发生的阿根廷金融危机等 ,都证实了汇率制度选择对一国宏观经济的影响和重要性。最近 ,我国面临来自一些西方国家要求人民币升值和改变现人民币汇率生成机制的压力 ,这都使得我们有必要对汇率制度选择进行探讨。一、汇率制度选择的评价标准和理论无论是固定汇率制度 ,还是浮动汇率制度 ,都有它们各自的优点。对于固定汇率制度来讲 ,其主要优点是 :(1)可在任何产出水平条件下控制其物价水平 ;(2 )有利于促进国际贸易和投资 ;(3 )防止国家间出现竞争性贬值 ;(4 )避免出现投机泡沫。对于浮动汇率制度来讲 ,其主要优点是 :(1)一国能实行独立的货币政策 ;(2 )能对来自贸易的振动作自动的调整 ;(3 )避免投机攻击。面对不同汇率制度下的各自特点 ,一国在选择汇率方面 ,到底是选择固定汇率制、浮动汇率制 ,还是选择介于前两者之间...     

财政、货币政策的有效性与汇率制度的选择

近些年来，政府以积极的财政、货币政策为中心，通过采取诸如增发国债、降低利率等措施，对促进我国国民经济的平稳复苏与持续增长起到了促进作用。然而，由于我国目前仍实行相对僵硬的汇率制度，也从相当程度上影响了扩张性财政、货币政策的经济效应。本文运用开放经济下的蒙代尔—弗莱明模型，通过对不同汇率制度下财政、货币政策有效性的比较分析，提出了我国应实行更加灵活宽松汇率制度的基本设想。 一、不同汇率制度下财政、货币政策的有效性 　　要分析不同汇率制度下财政、货币政策的有效性，需要以蒙代尔—弗莱明模型作为研究的…     

货币政策工具与中介目标选择:基于法定准备金操作的研究

利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题,目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具与利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究实际上隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。基于法定准备金操作的研究表明,法定准备金操作和货币量之间存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的。导致利率和法定准备金操作关系不确定的主要原因,则是IS曲线斜率正负性的不确定性;同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率正负性是不稳定的。因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。     

美联储量化宽松政策对全球资产价格的非平衡溢出效应

本文采用全局向量自回归模型分析了美联储QE对采用不同货币政策框架、汇率制度和资本流动管理制度国家和地区的不同影响。“货币政策钉住货币供应量+宽松钉住汇率制度+资本账户可兑换”的国家其货币政策应兼顾本国物价水平稳定，同时加强宏观审慎政策对资产价格的逆周期调节，避免出现实体经济紧缩而金融繁荣的现象。“货币政策钉住通货膨胀+浮动汇率+资本账户可兑换”的国家应强化宏观审慎政策对资产价格的调节以应对金融资产泡沫。     

A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

As the Chinese economy becomes more market based and continuesits rapid integration into the global economy, having an independentand effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectiveswill become increasingly important. Employing modern principlesof monetary policy in light of the current state of China'sfinancial institutions, we motivate and present a package ofproposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime.Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflationobjective, operational independence for the People's Bank ofChina (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government,and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinesebanking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). Weargue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflationobjective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tiedown inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policyto make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financialstability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoringof money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to playa useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a moneytarget would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor.(JEL codes: E5 and P2)     

泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验

本文运用历史分析法和反应函数法首次将中国货币政策运用于检验泰勒规则。通过计算中国货币政策中利率的泰勒规则值 ,并与其实际值进行比较表明 ,泰勒规则可以很好地衡量中国货币政策 ,利率规则值与实际值的偏离之处恰恰是政策操作滞后于经济形势发展之时。这表明泰勒规则能够为中国货币政策提供一个参照尺度 ,衡量货币政策的松紧。对中国货币政策的反应函数GMM估计表明 ,通胀率对利率的调整系数小于 1 ,这是一种不稳定的货币政策规则 ,在这一制度下 ,通货膨胀或通货紧缩的产生和发展有着自我实现机制。     

Monetary Policy Coordination and the Level of National Debt

This paper uses the Canzoneri-Henderson benchmark framework of monetary policy coordination in interdependent economies to analyze how high levels of national debt affect monetary policy interactions. Using a two-country model, I first study how central banks interact in a flexible exchange-rate regime. I find that a low-debt country is better off interacting with a country with high debt, when both economies are affected by an aggregate inflationary shock. I also consider a political dependence scenario, in which central banks are subject to political pressure. In the case of a debt-burdened country, the political incentive to reduce interest payments on debt will spur a Gordon–Barro like inflation bias. However, under a flexible exchange-rate regime, the low-debt country will not be affected. Under a monetary union instead, political pressure may affect the low-debt country as well, and possibly create an inflation bias even greaterthan in the flexible exchange-rate regime. This scenario presents another example of how Rogoff's counterproductive monetary cooperation may arise under European Monetary Union.     

中国货币政策有效性问题研究

货币政策有效性的标志在于货币政策目标的实现程度。经验实证表明 ,中国 18年货币政策操作经历了反通货膨胀和反通货紧缩两方面的考验 ,总体来说是有效的。当前妨碍中国货币政策有效性的主要因素是中国的银行主导型金融体系内部存在信贷收缩机制。要提高货币政策有效性 ,关键在于进一步深化国有商业银行改革和放宽中小金融机构的市场准入。     

Stability of Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Papua New Guinea (PNG): An Error Correction Model Analysis

An error correction model (ECM) is used to study the Properties of money demand and to evaluate the appropriate monetary policy in PNG. The study confirms that the determinats of money demand are real GDP, nominal interest and inflation rate. The income elasticity of money demand is very low. The demand for money in PNG was stable during 1979-95, suggesting that the monetary targeting regime by the PNG Central Bank is feasible. However, as PNG proceeds with economic reforms that Includes financial sector reform and a floating exchange rate regime, the stability of the demand for money may have to be re-examined periodically. The best approach for conducting the monetary policy in PNG is to target the inflation rate. [E41, E52, C22]     

Financial distress and fiscal inflation

Is inflation ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ or is it fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon? The answer hinges crucially on the underlying monetary–fiscal policy regime. Scant attention has been directed to the role of credit market frictions in discerning the policy regime, despite its growing importance in empirical macroeconomics. We augment a standard monetary model to incorporate fiscal details and credit market imperfections. These ingredients allow for both interpretations of the inflation process in a financially constrained environment. We find that introducing financial frictions to the model and adding financial variables to the dataset generate important identifying restrictions on the observed pattern between inflation and measures of financial and fiscal stress, to the extent that it overturns existing findings about which monetary–fiscal policy regime produced the U.S. data. To confront policy regime uncertainty, we propose the use of dynamic prediction pools and find strong cyclical patterns in the estimated historical regime weights.     

Alternative Strategies for Monetary Policy

The aim of the paper is to emphasize the importance of the central bank's alternative strategies for macroeconomic equilibrium. Using a constrained maximization process founded on a behavioural equation, we underscore the relevance, for monetary policy, of the assumptions adopted by policymakers regarding how the economic system works. In particular, under a flexible exchange rate regime, the relevant hypotheses are those concerning the supply curve. Under a fixed exchange rate regime the relevant assumptions are those related to the maintenance of the currency agreements and to the internal sustainability of an interest rate setting policy. We demonstrate that these hypotheses define the objective pursued and the strategy followed. Furthermore, if they do not coincide with the actual characteristics of the market, the adjustment dynamics of aggregate income and inflation do not allow convergence toward equilibrium. We use the tools of New Consensus Macroeconomics to discuss the implications of the model and to offer an enhanced analytical framework for teaching intermediate macroeconomics without necessarily adopting the mainstream hypotheses.