工业与农业相互依存的内生增长模型——工业反哺农业的理论基础

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想,将两部门的技术进步同时内生化,本文提出了一个工业和农业相互依存的二元经济内生增长模型,并以此对目前争议颇多的"工业反哺农业"的时机和政策问题,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析.本文认为,通过促进农村劳动力向工业部门转移可以推动中国经济的持续增长,加大对农业的投入和加快资本积累是推动农村劳动力转移、实现二元经济结构转换和经济持续增长的关键,因此工业反哺农业是我国经济均衡发展的必要条件.     

新疆经济二元结构的实证分析

我国作为发展中国家,整体上二元经济结构普遍存在.新疆经济发展较慢,在传统经济部门和现代经济部门之间,存在着明显的差异.新疆二元经济结构严重的基本原因是产值转换的不对称.农村劳动力转换受阻是导致新疆二元经济结构严重的关键所在.     

河南省二元经济结构演化过程分析

二元经济通常是指在社会经济系统中,存在着以农业为代表的传统经济部门和以工业为代表的现代经济部门,二者在生产规模、技术水平、投入要素、组织方式、增长特征和工资率等方面都存在着重大差异。二元经济结构是制约经济发展的主要原因,因而研究二元经济结构转换的过程具有重大意义。河南省具有比较明显的二元经济结构特征,这也成为制约河南省经济发展的关键所在。     

社会资本影响东亚经济增长吗?——兼与西方经济体比较的视角

“东亚奇迹”、“东亚模式”反映了经济学界对东亚经济快速增长的肯定,在促进东亚经济增长的因素中除了物质资本、人力资本、技术进步等传统因素外,是否还存在着社会资本因素是本文试图回答的问题.本文运用了东亚十一个国家和西方经济体十个国家2000-2008年的面板数据,实证分析了社会资本对东亚经济增长的影响和在不同经济体中作用程度的差异,最后文章就东亚国家培育和发展社会资本给出了相应的对策建议.     

农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献

本文针对农业劳动力流动对中国经济增长的贡献,在二元经济结构和增长源核算框架下给出新的度量和结果。研究发现:(1)采用劳动再配置效应经典公式评估这种贡献时,通常会产生漏测或过测。在马塞尔增长源分解模式中嵌入劳动的制度异质性,可以得到一个具有比较优势的近似测算公式。(2)1985—2011年中国农业劳动力流动对经济增长的贡献具有递减的趋势,与经济增长具有相似的波动特征。(3)市场化改革以来,由于非农部门劳动的制度异质性被固化和农村劳动力教育增速放缓,农业劳动力流动促进经济增长的潜力受到了抑制。(4)实施相应制度创新之后,农业劳动力流动仍可为延续"中国奇迹"做出贡献。     

经济开放、劳动市场与二元经济结构转化

本文在内生经济增长理论的框架内,将对外开放和失业引入二元经济增长模型,分析了在开放条件下存在失业的二元经济结构均衡,并运用数值模拟试算和计量分析等方法探讨了对外开放在二元经济结构转换中的作用。本文的分析表明,一国采取对外开放政策会对其二元经济结构转化产生促进作用,较快的对外开放步伐能加速二元经济结构向现代一元经济结构转化的进程。随着我国对外开放的深入,FDI和对外贸易对我国二元经济结构向现代一元经济结构转化将起到越来越重要的促进作用。     

"二元经济"条件下的我国劳动力转移问题研究——基于我国农村的农地制度对"民工荒"现象的理论探讨

我国当前的经济是典型的二元经济,传统农业生产部门生产率低于现代非农生产部门,农村劳动力流向非农部门可以促进经济增长.我国当前的土地产权制度安排,不利.于经营者进一步投资从而提高单位土地产出率,制约了土地流转、集中,制约了劳动力从传统部门向现代部门流动,造成了社会福利损失.提出了赋予农民土地所有权,降低农业生产部门劳动力向非农转移的成本,促进劳动力在部门间流动的政策建议.     

结构变迁与工资差距

本文构建一个现代部门技术选择内生的经济结构转变模型,来讨论结构变迁(经济结构转变)与熟练工人和非熟练工人间工资差距的关系.由于现代部门的技术选择内生于劳动力市场的供给结构,经济结构转变既影响劳动力市场的供给结构,又影响其需求结构.本文认为,在经济结构转变过程中,现代部门通过调整其技术结构,可以增加对传统部门剩余劳动力的需求,加快经济增长,同时缩小工资差距.     

二元结构、劳动力转移与经济增长

我国经济存在典型的二元结构,大量农业劳动力的转移直接关系着我国的经济发展,改革后我国农业劳动力的转移速度较快,农业劳动力就业份额年均下降0.86个百分点,结构转换的资源再配置效应对经济增长的平均贡献率为17.26%,但目前我国二元经济结构还很明显,农业劳动力转移的任务还很艰巨,今后,应站在城乡统筹和经济持续发展的战略高度,考虑从两个途径采取措施,促进我国二元经济结构转换过程中的劳动力转移问题.     

就业向服务业转移对经济增长影响研究

本文采用“Baumol服务悖论”中的两部门模型,同时吸纳技术进步模型中的两个观点,即服务消费促进人力资本积累和制造业生产的“Learning-By-Doing”带来技术进步.因此,服务业和制造业的生产率增加是内生决定的.最初,劳动力份额向服务部门的转移降低了人均实际GDP增长率,但到达一定程度,这种转移开始提高人均实际GDP增长率.因此,随着经济由萧条变为繁荣,服务业劳动力份额增加的过程中存在一个内生性阶段转换.     

Growth, Trade, and Government Policies of a Small Open Economy

Utilizing a linear endogenous growth model, the paper provides an economic rationale for two empirical findings: the positive correlation between export growth and income growth, and the association of rapid structural changes with fast income growth. In the benchmark case, the small open economy converges eventually to a balanced growth path along which exports and total output grow at the same constant rate as consumption. Government policies affect the pattern of specialization and trade since they change the autarky or foreign relative price. Only taxation on the capital goods sector can affect asymptotic growth rates.     

Differences in growth with international capital markets and financial innovation

This paper presents a model in which technological progress affects the productivity of the financial sector. When technological progress moves quicky, the financial intermediation costs are low, which increases the incentives to invest in new technology. This feedback process involves two types of long-run equilibria: one with low financial intermediation costs and high growth, and the other with high financial intermediation costs and low growth. These divergences in growth rates among countries hold even in the presence of international capital markets with free capital mobility, a very unusual result in the endogenous growth literature.     

Growth and Wage Inequality in a Dual Economy

Who benefits from economic growth? This paper analyses the distributional impact of different types of growth within a two‐sector model. The paper first presents necessary and sufficient conditions for unambiguous changes in wage inequality in a dual economy, based on analysis of the entire Lorenz curve. These conditions are then applied to the Harris–Todaro model with an urban non‐agricultural sector and rural agriculture. It is shown that capital accumulation or technical progress in agriculture can shift the Lorenz curve inwards and reduce wage inequality, while the effects of development in non‐agriculture are typically ambiguous.     

CONFORMISM AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE

Using a simple, multisector model of endogenous growth, we show that commodity‐specific consumption externalities can be a source of structural change. When the degrees of consumption externalities are different between goods, each sector grows at a different rate. However, the aggregate economy exhibits balanced growth in that capital stock and expenditure grow at the same constant rate. A three‐sector version of our model may reconcile Kaldor's stylized facts with empirically plausible profiles of industrial structure transformation.     

Endogenous technological progress in a multi-sector growth model

This paper presents an endogenous growth model driven by human capital, where human capital can be allocated across three sectors: the production of the final consumption good, the educational sector and the production of technological capital (in the form of knowledge or ideas). In our model, which also includes public expenditure and population growth, labor augmenting technical progress is endogenous and this enriches the transitional dynamics of the economy. With respect to ideas-based growth models, we assume knowledge is produced according to a neoclassical technology, combining ideas and human capital. Such an assumption is motivated by empirical works showing the existence of significant decreasing returns in the creation of ideas at the aggregate level (as Kortum, 1993; and Pessoa, 2005) and of the weak relationship between some inputs of the knowledge production process (as the number of researchers) and the total factor productivity growth rate (as Jones, 2002). Under some general conditions, this economy exhibits the existence of a steady state equilibrium and an unstable multidimensional manifold. Numerical examples are provided to show the existence of stable arms.     

Trade,capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore's unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore's unemployment rate.     

The Intersectoral Terms of Trade and Their Impact on Urbanisation in China

The historical experience of developed countries shows that the economic development process and accompanying urbanisation represent a structural transformation from an economy dominated by agriculture to one dominated by non-agricultural activities. Therefore it is generally believed that the agricultural sector needs to make a net transfer of resources, both capital and labour, to other sectors in the processes of economic transformation and urbanisation. However, the process of urbanisation in a socialist economy can be negatively affected by its pattern of resource generation. On the basis of an analysis of the 'scissors' pricing mechanism to which the state had recourse for financing its industrialisation, this article argues that this kind of resource transfer did not necessarily favour a high rate of urban employment and urbanisation, regardless of the magnitude of the seizure of resources from the agricultural sector.     

“引进式技术进步方式”下的中国 经济增长与不平衡结构特征

中国经济保持高速增长的同时也伴随着诸多的结构问题。本文以引进式技术进步方式为基本假设条件，对高速增长和结构不平衡等问题进行了系统论述。中国经济不平衡增长方式是在国际产业转移和国内技术引进背景下形成的，并且要保持高速经济增长就必须采取不平衡增长方式。在引进式技术进步方式下，高端部门对低端部门具有生产力和收入传递效应。在理论研究基础上，本文对高低端两部门的不平衡结构演变及结构演变与经济增长的关系还进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：随着中国经济发展和国际环境的变化，原有经济增长方式难以维系，结构调整和发展方式转变才能使得中国经济向更为可持续的方向发展，而结构转变的核心在于技术进步方式的转变，只有自主创新替代技术引进才能从根本上解决中国经济结构问题。     

Another Look at Wage Distortion in a Developing Dual Economy

The paper focuses on an endogenous wage distortion in a developing dual economy where an efficiency wage in the urban sector triggers rural-urban migration. Because of the endogenous nature of the distortion, this migration reduces the severity of distortion by creating more jobs and reducing the actual wage differential between the sectors. These results are in sharp contrast to the outcomes of an exogenous wage distortion (minimum wage) where rural-urban migration increases the severity of unemployment and calls for costly policy mechanisms that might be either politically or economically difficult to implement. Furthermore, in contrast to the case of an exogenous distortion, interregional migration with endogenous wage distortion increases urban industrial output and structural transformation works its way into the development process. This structural transformation is maintained even when this dual economy engages in the production of non-traded goods. Although this paper does not engage in policy ranking to bring in zero unemployment equilibrium, it shows that it is possible to achieve socially desirable level of migration by influencing detection rate of shirking or disutility of work effort instead of using costly distributive parameters such as taxes and subsidies.     

Externalities,Productivity and Sustained Growth

This paper shows that the existence of endogenous growth, in the closed‐form solution, in a single sector economy with a convex technology in an overlapping generations (OLG) framework, which attempts to fill the current gap in endogenous growth theory. It finds there is an unbounded growth when trade, in the form of knowledge spillover, affects labor productivity through the formation of human capital with self‐education that is not an independent sector but builds the human capital here. This conclusion holds even though there is the “limited income” expressed as the “non‐increasing wage/investment ratio” for each generation. Moreover, it shows the convergence of growth rates for each country, which is unique and constant, while the growth rate per capita negatively relates with each country's population growth rate. Also, there is no “poverty trap” with the introduction of externalities that is different from existing literature.