COMPARING POST-COLD WAR MILITARY CONVERSION IN THE UNITED STATES AND RUSSIA

According to the conventional wisdom, military conversion in Russia would be more difficult than in the United States because Russia does not have the developed market infrastructure and institutions that help western defense firms redeploy resources for civilian production. A closer look raises doubts about these arguments. Western defense firms have had difficulties with conversion because they cannot compete with the existing relatively efficient civilian firms. Meanwhile, the principal competitors of the Russian defense firms, the large Russian civilian enterprises, are closer in nature to defense enterprises than to efficient market firms. While this does not bode well for the Russian economy in general, the defense enterprises should not find themselves at a significant disadvantage in the civilian markets. Two effects can be distinguished. On the one hand, due to the more developed market infrastructure, the U.S. economy is presumably good at redeploying defense-related resources across firm boundaries. On the other hand, the large and efficient civilian sector in the United States makes the marginal "civilian" value of the redeployed resources low. It is the interaction of these factors, rather than the degree of development of market infrastructure alone, that determines the relative difficulty of military conversion. Additionally, empirical evidence based on regional data indicates that despite enormous defense expenditure cuts, the economic performance of Russia's regions is only relatively weakly correlated with the regions' dependency on defense industry.     

THE CONCEPT OF MACROECONOMIC COST AND ITS UTILITY

The proposed "Variable Domestic Cost" includes all net payments by sectors belonging to the productive system (enterprises, credit institutions and government) to all other sectors (households, private non-profit organizations and the rest of the world). Compared with the rate of growth of demand, represented by Gross Domestic Marketable Product at current prices, the rate of growth of VDC per unit produced forms the "profitability function of the nation." Profitability is positively related to the rate of economic growth and to the price/cost relation. A relative deceleration of unit VDC stimulates economic growth, which enlarges the positive difference between price and cost, and that, in turn, accelerates economic growth. Inversely, a relative acceleration of unit VDC brakes economic growth, while a slowdown in production raises unit costs and depresses prices. The resulting fall in profitability stops economic growth.
The main explanatory variables of demand are World trade, monetary and fiscal policy and import prices. The main components of VDC are enterprises' wage costs, social benefits minus social contributions and the government wage bill minus direct taxes payable by households. The fact that in West Germany all these unit costs were increasing more slowly than in France explains why Geman economic growth, much slower than French before 1975, outpaced it after that year, achieving a lower rate of inflation, a larger positive balance of trade and a higher appreciation of the national currency.
The concept of VDC is a useful contribution to the theories of inflation and of economic fluctuations and provides a possible explanation of structural unemployment. Maintaining VDC at a lowest possible level should be considered a major object of economic policy.     

国防工业军民融合发展国际化：路径与实现

国防工业军民融合发展国际化是发达国家国防工业发展的普遍做法。从已有研究成果看，学界尚未就国防工业军民融合发展国际化问题进行专门系统的研究。依据学界对国际化和军民融合发展的理解，界定国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本内涵，在此基础上将国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本路径区分为国防工业军民融合发展“引进来”和“走出去”，揭示军用民用产品跨国贸易、军民品跨国研制生产、军事民用领域跨国投资、军民领域跨国经济合作、军民标准运用跨国对接、军工民用企业跨国联盟等国防工业军民融合发展国际化实现形式的内涵机理。推进国防工业军民融合发展国际化，有助于更好地利用国内外军民两种资源优势、发挥国内外军民两个市场作用，从而加快国防工业军民融合深度发展,提高国防工业发展质量效应。     

国防工业军民融合发展国际化：路径与实现

国防工业军民融合发展国际化是发达国家国防工业发展的普遍做法。从已有研究成果看，学界尚未就国防工业军民融合发展国际化问题进行专门系统的研究。依据学界对国际化和军民融合发展的理解，界定国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本内涵，在此基础上将国防工业军民融合发展国际化基本路径区分为国防工业军民融合发展“引进来”和“走出去”，揭示军用民用产品跨国贸易、军民品跨国研制生产、军事民用领域跨国投资、军民领域跨国经济合作、军民标准运用跨国对接、军工民用企业跨国联盟等国防工业军民融合发展国际化实现形式的内涵机理。推进国防工业军民融合发展国际化，有助于更好地利用国内外军民两种资源优势、发挥国内外军民两个市场作用，从而加快国防工业军民融合深度发展,提高国防工业发展质量效应。     

Arms production,national defense spending and arms trade: Examining supply and demand

Scholars have estimated demand functions for national defense spending and investigated international arms trade for a long time. The relationship between supply and demand for military goods has, however, only been examined on aggregate level or in formal models yet. I investigate how the supply of military goods by arms-producing companies and the demand for military goods by both the national government and foreign governments are related by using a panel of up to 195 arms-producing companies in 21 countries for the period 2002–2016. The results show that if the demand for national defense spending increases by 1%, the arms sales by a country’s largest arms-producing companies increase by up to 1.2%. If exports of major conventional weapons increase by 1%, sales increase by up to 0.2%. Arms imports do not affect domestic arms sales because imported and domestically produced arms are complements, and countries mainly import those arms they do not produce themselves. Country-specific estimation results suggest that differences among countries in geopolitical conditions and international relations determine whether a country’s arms industry serves economic rather than security purposes.     

美联储金融监管体制、影响及其启示

长期以来,美联储从本国利益出发制定经济监管政策,在美国和世界经济体系中创造了过量的信用,导致美元在全世界泛滥,美国人放弃储蓄,过度投资和消费;美国主体经济从制造业转向了非出口服务业;美国的债务,不管是从国家角度还是从个人角度都达到了前所未有的高度,这一切最终演变成了这次全球金融危机.对于中国这样的经济大国,一定要从中吸取教训,扬长避短,并建立科学发展的核心价值观.     

专用性人力资本与非正式制度激励

自主创新是国防科技工业发展的灵魂,但发现和创新不可能是无源之水、无本之木.自主创新需要坚实基础,这个坚实基础就是国防科技专用性人力资本的投资水平.然而,由于专用性投资固有的“套牢”和“敲竹杠”问题,员工一般自发进行专用性人力资本投资量总是不足,这一点可以从相对较高的国防科技人才流动率上窥豹一斑.文章通过构建国防科技专用性人力资本投资的“囚徒困境”模型,说明了国防科技专用性人力资本自主性投资不足的现状,并针对此现状,分析了非正式制度的基本功能,剖析了非正式制度对于国防科技专用性人力资本投资的激励机理,最终得出结论:在国防科技工业组织内,构建积极向上的合作性的非正式制度,不失为激励理性的国防科技人员积极投身于自身专用性人力资本的一个好办法.     

DIVERSITY AND ECONOMIC EVOLUTION: FAILURES OF COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

This paper has two themes. First, diversity of relevant attributes driving the dynamics of socioeconomic systems, including industrial systems'is often needed to increase their likelihood of transiting to a superior state. However, systems left to their own devices do not always evolve to states where they possess sufficient or optimal diversity for further evolution or growth to a superior state. Evolutionary market mechanisms can be of this nature. Structural adjustment policies and globalization seem to be adding to industrial and other types of uniformity. Hence, real danger exists that global industrial structures influenced by field effects will become "piled up" and reduce the likelihood of the global economic system evolving to a superior economic state. Furthermore, diversity is an important driving force in other growth processes, e.g., those adding to the stock of knowledge. Second industrial diversity of techniques and behaviors may be potentially Paretian valuable as a means of optimal adjustment to continual technological change and as a manifestation of specialization according to differences in individual abilities and in those of organizations. Insofar as attempts at benchmarking try to ensure uniform adoption of "best practice" in industry, they are likely to be doubly damaging because short-run potential Paretian benefits are forgone, and in stifling industrial diversity they may also undermine industrial diversity as a source of future economic growth. (JEL D00, D89, O30, 014)     

民营企业准入国防科技工业的经济分析

国防科技工业在国民经济发展中具有关键性的地位,直接关系着国家战略和国家安全,属于政府高度管制的行业.当前,军民融合成为世界各国普遍采用的国防建设发展模式,而民营企业进入国防科技工业是实现军民融合的有效路径之一.民营企业进入国防工业领域面临着诸多壁垒,因此要通过制度创新来积极推进民营企业的进入,为民营企业参与国防工业生产提供有效的支持.     

国防科技产业军民深度融合模式与路径研究

军民融合式发展是促进国防科技产业快速发展和统筹国防建设与经济建设协调发展的必由之路,国防科技产业是军民深度融合的最佳载体和重要平台。将国防科技产业领域军民融合发展归纳为院所自转、军工自转、院企联转、校企联转、军民共转、民企参军等6种模式,在此基础上,从技术、资本、人才、制度、组织、市场、产业链等7个方面探索相应的军民深度融合路径,以期为形成军民深度融合发展格局提供有益借鉴。     

中国国防工业全要素生产率测算与分析

利用2004—2020年中国11大军工集团财务报表数据，从企业微观角度出发，运用LP方法计算国防工业全要素生产率并分析其变化趋势。结果表明，样本期内，我国国防工业全要素生产率总体呈波动上升趋势，其增长率高于制造业整体水平但低于高技术产业增速，说明国防工业技术进步比较明显，但进步速率还不够高；各细分军工行业全要素生产率存在较大差异，电子工业和船舶工业全要素生产率均值比其它军工行业高。收敛性分析表明，国防工业中，全要素生产率较低企业对较高企业具有追赶效应。建议军工行业必须转变增长方式，向集约型发展方式转变，提高发展质量；加大研发投入力度，重点扶持技术发展相对缓慢的行业，促进军工行业协调发展；贯彻军民融合发展战略，促进先进民用技术转军用。     

国防科技工业产业集聚机理与路径研究

作为推动经济建设与国防建设融合发展的重要载体，国防科技工业产业集聚发展在推动军民两用知识创造和技术溢出、吸引军民高端要素集聚及聚合区域创新动力中发挥着重要作用。在梳理我国国防科技工业产业集聚发展现状和问题的基础上，基于“空间—政策—技术—产业”4个维度分析国防科技工业产业集聚内在机理，提出完善基于系统耦合的国防科技工业产业集聚政策制度体系，构建基于区位优势的军民资源开放共享平台，形成基于完整价值链的国防科技工业产业集聚形态以及构建基于军民协同创新的区域创新网络等国防科技工业产业集聚发展的主要路径，为推动国防科技工业产业集聚发展，建设中国特色先进国防工业体系提供决策参考。     

论海南岛国家公园生态认证管理

随着海南国际旅游岛建设上升为国家战略,海南岛国家公园的筹划建设,近年来海南旅游迅猛发展,为在经济、社会、环境效应方面寻找平衡点,生态旅游认证成为积极有效的手段和工具。目前我国非政府组织还很不发达,特别是在海南省。因此,海南省政府在生态旅游认证体系的初期构建中起主导作用。通过对政府部门、生态旅游供给者和生态旅游者的问卷调查,对海南岛国家公园构建生态旅游认证过程中面临的关键问题进行了分析,并在调查基础上提出了海南岛国家公园进行生态认证管理的对策。     

国防工业军民融合效益评价研究

国防工业是我国军民融合发展的重要领域。因此,国防工业军民融合也是深入实施军民融合发展战略的题中之义和集中体现。从理论上深入分析了国防工业军民融合效益问题,指出国防工业军民融合效益主要体现为军民融合发展的国防效益、经济效益、社会效益,以及综合效益。最后,借助模糊集算法、经济贡献率法、层次分析法,探讨了国防工业军民融合效益评估方法。     

国防科技工业跨部门合作治理网络动态演化研究

随着国防科技工业治理复杂性提升以及传统治理理论失灵，准确厘清包含军民两大治理主体、公私两大职能部门治理机构间合作网络、关系结构与演化过程，已成为我国国防科技工业治理现代化的重要议题。基于“元治理”理论思想，以1998-2018年发布的614条政策为研究样本，应用社会网络分析法，对不同时期国防科技工业治理网络结构、机构间互动关系、主体角色定位进行考察。结果表明：关系网络是随着国防科技工业政策变迁不断演化的自组织网络，网络结构由“松散”向“耦合”转变、网络核心由“单核”向“多核”转变、治理模式由“碎片化回应”向“协同共治”转变；个体节点在不同时期展现出不同的角色定位，主要表现为协作主导者、牵头主导者、互惠跟随者以及边缘跟随者4个群体，并得出核心机构角色演变规律。最后，从“元治理”视角对国防科技工业异质主体跨部门合作治理关系进行再审视，并提出相应治理策略。     

The cost of natural capital consumption: Accounting for a sustainable world economy

The System for integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been criticized in this journal for ignoring the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being. This paper argues that extended national accounts should not attempt measuring economic welfare. Rather, they could and should assess the environmental sustainability of economic activity as the cost of natural capital consumption. The global application of SEEA concepts and methods demonstrates the feasibility of international green accounting. For the world economy, sustainability costs run to about 3 trillion US$ or 6% of world GDP. Large variations at national and regional levels suggest that conventional economic indicators may significantly overstate economic progress in some parts of the world. Data gaps and lack of data comparability affect these first estimates. National and international statistical services should be more aggressive in greening the national accounts. More prudent and more sustainable economic policies might be the result.     

创新驱动发展下国防专利制度面临的问题与完善

随着创新驱动发展战略的实施,知识产权制度特别是国防专利制度面临新一轮改革。自主创新环境、激励相容的运用实施机制和运转高效的管理体制是创新驱动发展对国防专利制度的内在要求。现有国防专利制度尚不能完全满足创新驱动发展的需要,创新驱动发展下国防专利制度面临权利归属不清、运用实施不畅、管理水平不适应等问题,必须提高国防专利创造的质量和水平,加大对国防专利运用实施的激励强度,提升国防专利管理的能力和效率。只有这样,才能适应经济新常态下创新驱动发展战略对国防知识产权制度变革的内在要求,发挥国防专利对经济发展的驱动作用。     

THE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF REDWOOD NATIONAL PARK: COMMENT AND ELABORATION

In a recent issue of this journal, Walker (1984) emphasized the need for good economic analysis in public evaluation of national park expansions. We support this but would like to show that a possible reason the economic analysis referred to in Walker's paper was ignored may be the very narrow way in which his analysis was performed. In particular, the opportunity cost per visitor day of Redwood National Park may have been overstated by a factor of 10 by implying the sole benefits of the park expansion were associated with only 10 percent of the park's use days. More importantly, substantial literature on off-site economic benefits arising from preservation of natural environments is completely ignored. Since the legal purpose of the national parks is not solely related to recreation, this omission reflects a large error in the analysis. This paper's purpose is to apply sensitivity analysis to the opportunity costs per visitor day and illustrate some policy analysis tools commonly used by natural-resource economists, in and out of government, for evaluating the economic efficiency benefits of preserving unique natural environments. Applying these tools indicates the cost of Redwood National Park may have been as low as 90 cents per household in the United States.     

中国工程机械行业产业安全状况分析与评价

近年来产业安全问题逐渐成为世界各国的关注焦点,其关系到各关键产业的产业安全乃至国家的经济安全。工程机械行业作为装备制造业一个最重要的子行业,其发展将直接影响到装备制造业乃至国民经济的健康发展。本文从产业生存环境、产业国际竞争力、产业对外依存度及产业控制力四个方面进行了定量与定性分析,认为该行业存在一定产业安全风险,国有企业面临着维护中国工程机械行业产业安全的压力。     

TALL TREES, PEOPLE, AND POLITICS: THE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF THE REDWOOD NATIONAL PARK

Because individuals in the marketplace directly face opportunity costs, they must balance marginal costs against marginal benefits. In contrast, in politics, the opportunity costs facing decision makers are diluted. Estimates of the social costs of various public programs are generally understated, while the estimates of social benefits are exaggerated
This paper places the establishment and expansion of the Redwood National Park within this framework and analyzes it as a public investment decision. It is shown that in the initial creation of the Redwood National Park in 1968, the costs of land acquisition and employment loss were underestimated, while the projections for gains in tourism were excessive. Despite the opposition of local landowners and residents, the Park was further expanded 10 years later in 1978. There was again a misstatement of costs and benefits and also the creation of an expensive new entitlement program to defuse the opposition of labor
The experience with the redwood National Park illustrates the results of the political process, which allows decision makers to internalize benefits and externalize costs. Emotion and rhetoric tend to displace a careful weighing of marginal costs and benefits