结构变迁与工资差距

本文构建一个现代部门技术选择内生的经济结构转变模型,来讨论结构变迁(经济结构转变)与熟练工人和非熟练工人间工资差距的关系.由于现代部门的技术选择内生于劳动力市场的供给结构,经济结构转变既影响劳动力市场的供给结构,又影响其需求结构.本文认为,在经济结构转变过程中,现代部门通过调整其技术结构,可以增加对传统部门剩余劳动力的需求,加快经济增长,同时缩小工资差距.     

产业内贸易对中国技能 工资差距的影响

本文试图考察产业内贸易对技能工资差距的影响,理论分析表明：它随劳动力条件的变化而变化,在劳动力无限供给条件下它取决于技术劳动力的绝对需求,由于产业内贸易必能刺激技术劳动力的绝对需求,因此必然会扩大工资差距。但在劳动力条件转向有限供给后,它又取决于技术劳动力的相对需求,而产业内贸易未必使之扩大,特别是对两类劳动力替代弹性较大的部门来说,可能会使技术劳动力的相对需求下降,并使技能工资差距收缩。本文基于中国33个产业的5年面板数据验证了上述假说。     

无就业增长与非均衡劳工市场动态学

本文直接模拟了劳工市场的非均衡过程、工资动态轨迹、经济人的最优行为和适应性优化行为。劳动供给源于家庭的效用最大化 ,劳动需求源于企业的利润最大化。企业的适应性优化行为和若干制度因素构成了工资刚性的基本要素 ,劳工市场的供求力量也是影响工资变动的重要因素。根据劳动生产率的变化对工资进行适应性的调节是现实世界企业工资决策的普遍实践。工资刚性与高劳动生产率并存是造成无就业增长的真正原因     

Foreign Trade of Manufactures and Men and Women’s Employment and Earnings in Germany and Japan

Using factor content analysis, this paper provides estimates of the effects of manufacturing trade expansion on men and women's employment in Germany and Japan, with breakdowns by world, OECD, and non-OECD trade. Evidence is found that foreign trade expansion had a more negative effect on women's than men's manufacturing employment in Japan and a roughly equal effect in Germany, with the difference between the countries driven by non-OECD trade. In spite of this, demand shifted away from women's manufacturing employment in Germany after the early-1970s, for both the manufacturing sector as a whole and for manufacturing industries with high female shares of employment, while no such labor demand shifts occurred in Japan. In the face of these differences in labor demand and of very similar increases in female labor supply, male-female hourly wage differences narrowed in Germany and widened in Japan, for both manufacturing and non-agricultural employees. It is concluded that shifts in neither labor supply nor labor demand fit with observed trends of male-female wage differences in Germany and Japan.     

The Manufacturing Wage Inequality in Latin America and East Asia: Openness, Technology Transfer, and Labor Supply

This paper examines wage inequality in the manufacturing sector for a panel of Latin American and East Asian economies during the last three decades. A labor supply and demand model is presented where three main determinants of wage inequality are investigated: trade openness, technology transfer, and labor supply. Findings indicate that wage inequality in the two regions has responded differently to the various determinants enumerated above. Some lessons from the comparative experience of the two regions are drawn.     

Money disillusion and stagflation

In the conventional income-expenditure model with rigid wages, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping. Increases in demand therefore imply increases in real output and employment. We demonstrate here that this conclusion depends on the form of money illusion implied by the rigid wage assumption. If we assume instead that labor supply is more sensitive to price increases than to wage increases, the aggregate supply curve is negatively sloped, and the conventional policy multipliers are thereby reversed. In the second section, we show that this result also follows if labor supply depends on the expected real wage.     

The potential imposition of wage controls on nurses: a threat to nurses, patients, and hospitals

When there are shortages of RNs, hospitals and health care organizations in competitive nurse labor markets respond by increasing wages: some hospitals will respond faster and some will offer higher wages than others. The wage increase brings about two important short and long-run outcomes that, together, will increase the supply of RNs in the labor market. Because wage controls prevent the flexibility of wages to adjust, they can cause a shortage to develop when the demand for RNs is increasing (as in the 1970s), and wage controls will lengthen the duration of a shortage once it has begun. The impacts of prolonged RN shortages are multifaceted and destructive to nurses, patients, and hospitals. Looking ahead over the next 15 years when the demand for RNs is expected to grow by roughly 3% per year and the supply of RNs by much less than that, a new nursing shortage is projected to develop and reach a deficit of 285,000 RNs by 2020. The worst thing that could happen to the nursing profession would be to impose wage controls on nurses as this would prevent the needed short and long-run labor supply responses from developing and thereby eliminate the shortage.     

Recycling of carbon/energy taxes and the labor market

This paper provides a quantitative assessmet of a cost shift from labor to energy by means of a carbon/energy tax. The analysis utilizes a general equilibrium model for the European Community, placing the emphasis on the modeling of labor supply. The paper highlights the importance of the feedback from an induced increase in labor demand to wage formation. It shows that the goals of CO₂ reduction and improved employment are complementary, provided the reduction in labor costs financed by the carbon/energy tax is not offset by increased wage claims. Under this condition, reduced CO₂ is consistent with an increase in GDP.     

The optimal minimum wage with regulatory uncertainty

For two different regulatory standards, we examine the optimal minimum wage in a competitive labor market when the government is uncertain about supply and demand. Solutions are related to underlying supply and demand conditions, and to the extent of uncertainty and of rationing efficiency. With expected earnings maximization, greater uncertainty widens the range of parameter values for which a minimum wage should be set. With expected worker surplus maximization and sufficiently efficient rationing, a minimum wage should always be set. However, in both cases regulatory uncertainty may require a low minimum wage that may not bind in equilibrium.     

Wage rigidity and destabilizing spirals

This paper investigates the impact of real wage rigidity on the (de)stabilizing role of demand feedback. I show that destabilizing supply–demand feedback driven by countercyclical precautionary savings demand against uninsured unemployment risk is fundamentally a matter of rigid real wage adjustments over business cycles. Given the estimated wage rigidity consistent with aggregate labor market dynamics in the United States, the quantitative results suggest that the unemployment risk channel has a minor impact on aggregate volatility.     

The estimation of a disequilibrium real wage equation for Britain

An aggregate wage equation is formulated based on a disequilibrium labor market model. The specification allows for an important special case to be tested, namely the equilibrium hypothesis that real wages move instantaneously to equate the demand for and supply of labor. The hypothesis that the British labor market has been in equilibrium is rejected. The adjustment path for real wages is monotonic and dominated by demand factors. Real wages move quickly to eliminate excess demand but the results contradict the monetarist contention that the aggregate labor market is continuously in a temporary, if not full, equilibrium.     

The rise of part-time employment in the great recession: Its causes and macroeconomic effects

During the Great Recession, the U.S. economy witnessed a substantial rise in part-time employment for a sustained period. We extend the New Keynesian unemployment model by Galí et al. (2012) to allow substitutions between full-time and part-time labor, and estimate the model’s parameters by using the Bayesian method. In our model, households and firms can optimally allocate full-time and part-time labor, and disturbances exist in part-time labor supply (household disutility from part-time labor) and part-time labor demand (firms’ efficiency to use part-time labor). As for the Great Recession, the initial increase in part-time employment at the outset of the financial crisis is mostly explained by the rise of the risk premia; the persistently high level of part-time employment in the later period is mainly explained by an exogenous increase in part-time labor supply. A part-time labor supply shock also explains a significant portion of slow recovery in the gross wage during the recession, as the shock lowers the part-time wage and the proportion of full-time workers in total employment. Notably, the results from our model suggest that though the transition from full-time to part-time jobs contributed to mitigating the sharp contraction in total employment and labor force during the Great Recession, it played only a limited role in relieving recessionary pressure.     

Nonlinearity in dynamic adjustment: Semiparametric estimation of panel labor supply

We estimate a semiparametric dynamic panel data model by the local linear kernel method and we interpret the slope of the nonparametric component function as a varying slope coefficient. Thus, the slope coefficient is a smooth, but otherwise unknown, function of some of the regressors. A Monte Carlo experiment is reported to examine the finite sample performance of the local linear estimator. We apply the estimation method to a labor supply equation for men from the triannual Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Specification tests based on the estimated labor supply elasticities, partial adjustment coefficients, and residuals demonstrate the improvements from a semiparametric partially linear model. Our empirical results point to a need by economists to revisit the issue of the speed of labor market adjustment to policy induced shifts in labor demand and to take more formal econometric account of heterogeneity in wage effects when studying the distributional consequences of tax reforms for labor supply earnings. First version received: July 2000/Final version received: January 2001     

A consistent model of the expectations augmented Phillips curve and inflation

The usual version of the expectations-augmented Phillips curve is shown to contain several inconsistencies. In particular, it does not take account of the dependence of labor demand and supply on the real wage, nor does it treat the goods and labor markets symmetrically. When the model is revised to meet these points, it is found that standard accelerationist results are largely unaffected. However, the important issue as to whether inflation accelerates depends not on wage but on price behavior. A unit coefficient on the expectations variable in the wage equation is seen to be irrelevant to this question.     

Excess demand for labor, unemployment, and theories of the Phillips curve

This article has two purposes. First, to examine the assumption that it is possible to map uniquely between unemployment and excess demand for labor; this assumption plays a key role in the theory of the Phillips curve. We show that as both unemployment and excess demand for labor are endogenous and simultaneously determined, in general it is not possible to obtain a unique mapping between unemployment and excess demand for labor and that the Lipsey and Barro and Grossman derivations of the Phillips curve are invalid. Secondly, the article recommends that wage, employment, and unemployment behavior be modelled using short-run supply and demand curves, that is, in a Marshall-Hicks temporary equilibrium framework.     

Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: The role of interest rates

This paper documents that, at the aggregate level, (i) real wages are positively correlated with output and, on average, lag output by about one quarter in emerging markets, while there are no systematic patterns in developed economies, and (ii) real wage volatility (relative to output volatility) is about twice as high in emerging markets compared with developed economies. We then present a small open economy model with productivity shocks and countercyclical interest rates. The model incorporates a working capital requirement and the Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009) preference that allows for flexible parameterization of the strength of income effects on labor supply. The model can account for the high volatility of wage and consumption relative to output and countercyclical trade balances that characterize emerging-market economies. During economic downturns, rising interest rates in emerging markets induce relatively large income effects on labor supply, so households would not reduce their labor input as much even though wages drop significantly.     

Increasing dispersion of skills and rising earnings inequality

In recent decades many countries have simultaneously liberalized their trading regimes and expanded their education systems. The theoretical effect of these regime shifts on the wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers is ambiguous. On the one hand, openness to trade causes demand shifts in the labor market which may widen or narrow the differential. This result depends on whether the unskilled wage is depressed, as in the case of importing countries, or raised, as in the case of exporting countries. On the other hand, an increased supply of more educated workers reduces their wages and narrows the skill wage gap. In this study of the labor market of Hong Kong, we document that recent changes in response to the trade liberalization of Mainland China and expanded access to education have increased the earnings differential between skilled and unskilled workers. Using detailed census data, we argue that the main reason for this outcome is the widened dispersion of skills across the earnings distribution, resulting from demand and supply shifts in the labor market caused by trade openness and expanded access to higher education.     

Immigration Wage Effects by Origin

We estimate the direct partial wage effects of immigrant‐induced increases in labor supply, using the national skill cell approach with longitudinal records drawn from Norwegian administrative registers. The results show overall negative but heterogeneous wage effects, with larger effects on immigrant wages than on native wages and with native wages more responsive to inflows from Nordic countries than from developing countries. These patterns are consistent with natives and Nordic citizens being close substitutes, while natives and immigrants from developing countries are imperfect substitutes. Estimates are sensitive to accounting for effective immigrant experience, selective native participation, and variation in demand conditions and native labor supply.     

Learning to believe in nonrational expectations that support pareto-superior outcomes

I consider the prototype New Keynesian macroeconomic model with subjective demand expectations of firms. In this model the firms' objective demand is log-linear in their relative price. Firms believe that their demand curve is linear or log-linear in their absolute price. They estimate the parameters of this curve by least squares from past observations on prices and quantities. The wage rate either clears the labor market given firms' demand perceptions or is given in the short run and changes according to a linear Phillips curve. In either setup of the model the interplay between learning and price setting confirms the subjective model. Among the long-run equilibria are solutions at which the representative household attains a higher level of utility as compared to the rational-expectations outcome. If the supply of labor depends upon the real wage, money is not neutral.     

The effects of stochastic wages and non-labor income on labor supply: update and extensions

The analysis of labor supply under risk has a long history dating back to Hicks (The theory of wages, St. Martin’s Press, New York, 2003) and Knight (Risk, uncertainty and profit, Kelly, New York, 1964). In the 1980s more technical papers investigated the impact of stochastic non-labor income and/or wage rate upon labor supply. In this paper, we show that the effect of a mean-preserving increase in risk in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply is best understood as a special case of an Nth degree risk increase (as defined by Ekern (Econ Lett 6:329–333, 1980)) and the conditions for signing the effect of a higher-order risk increase in wage rate or non-labor income on labor supply are analogous to those for signing the effect of a simple non-stochastic decrease in wage rate or non-labor income. We thus extend, and provide new and more intuitive interpretations for, related earlier results.