基于数据挖掘的会计舞弊识别问题研究综述

本文检索了近年来基于数据挖掘的会计舞弊识别方面的文献,归类比较挖掘数据、算法以及分类器评价方法和分类效果,为投资者、监管部门和审计师在舞弊识别中选用适当数据和挖掘技术及优化模型提供借鉴。现有研究多对舞弊和配对非舞弊样本进行有标签挖掘,特征值涵盖审计师数据、公司治理数据、财务报表数据、行业和交易数据多个类别。当前研究以反映舞弊三角的综合数据为主,比率数据比账户数据更有效,主要算法包括统计检验、回归分析、神经网络、决策树、贝叶斯网络、堆栈变量法等。其中,回归分析应用最为普遍,神经网络在识别效果和准确性方面总体上优于回归模型,模型辅助检测优于审计师无辅助检测。现有文献还缺乏无标签挖掘和时序数据挖掘研究。     

决策树算法分析及其在实际应用中的改进

决策树算法是数据挖掘常用算法之一,属于归纳学习方法的一种.它以样本为基础,主要用于分类和预测,其结果比较容易转换为分类规则.ID3算法是一种以贪心算法为核心的典型的归纳学习算法,它采用自顶向下的递归方式生成一棵决策树.ID3算法中使用的数据是理想情况下的数据,在实际应用中,数据在大多数情况下是不能满足算法在理想情况下要求条件,因而也就不能直接使用决策树算法进行分类.所以,在实际应用决策树算法之前,还需要先对数据进行一些处理或改进.     

数据库技术中的决策树ID3的改进算法分析

决策树是建立在信息论基础之上,对数据进行分类挖掘的一种方法。决策树方法精确度比较高,结果容易理解,效率也比较高,因而比较常用。至今已经提出了决策树的很多算法,通过分析己知的分类信息得到一个预测模型。本文介绍了经典ID3算法,并在指出传统ID3算法的弊端的基础上,提出了结合ID3算法的优化算法。     

信用卡客户的分类研究

随着时代的发展,各行各业的数据都在成倍的增长,数据挖掘技术可以帮助人们从大量数据中发现有用的信息。文章将决策树分类算法引入到商业银行个人信用卡客户信用度的数据挖掘,在对原始数据进行预处理的基础上,采用ID3算法计算训练样本集中各个属性,建立一颗信用度评价决策树,对信用卡客户实现了较好分类。     

关联规则数据挖掘应用研究

笔者通过对关联规则的基本原理、分类及数据挖掘过程的介绍,对关联规则挖掘的核心算法及常用的优化方法进行了深入的研究,并通过一个例子介绍了关联规则在数据挖掘中的应用.     

决策树数据挖掘技术在项目冲突管理中的应用

信息化项目的高复杂性、高风险性对项目的冲突管理提出了较高的要求，目前对信息化项目中的冲突管理研究较多集中于管理理念和理论分析层面，结合文化冲突特点的实证研究较少。决策树方法是数据挖掘及数据分析中广泛应用的技术，具有清晰直观、易于解释的优点。文章通过决策树C5．0算法进行文化冲突研究。通过对项目中六种冲突管理决策类型的分析，提供了依据冲突情景选择应对策略的分类决策方法．为我国企业在信息化项目中遇到的冲突问题，提供了应对方法，同时也扩展了数据挖掘决策树技术的应用领域。     

数据挖掘技术在科技统计数据分析中的应用探索

文章介绍了数据挖掘的功能及方法,通过分析高校科技统计数据的特点,运用数据挖掘技术进行高校科技统计数据的分析,提出对科技统计数据进行分类、聚类、关联分析的方法,通过运用不同的算法对统计数据进行挖掘,寻找出数据中隐含的、有价值的决策规则及有价值模式,研究结果可为提高高校科研管理决策水平服务。     

基于遥感数字图像的初步树种分类研究

本文以2008年凉水实验林场1：8000的数字正射影像图及角规点数据,通过图像增强方法对数据进行预处理,采用基于纹理和决策树的分类方法对影像中的森林树种进行了初分类,为后续森林类型判读、森林经营决策提供基础数据。     

基于数据挖掘技术的概率统计教学研究

数据挖掘的本质是从现在已有的信息数据中发现规律和模式。阐述经典的决策树-ID3算法,并且将此算法应用到概率统计课程教学改革中,进行数据挖掘的实例分析,从中提取有价值的信息,并对得到的结果进行分析,得出影响高校学生数学成绩的一些原因,为提高民办高校大学数学教学管理水平提供科学依据。     

浅析基于数据挖掘技术的上市公司信用风险评估

近年来,数据挖掘方法被广泛应用于金融、经济领域,在信用风险方面也受到越来越多的重视.本文尝试将数据挖掘方法引入信用风险预测问题中,全面比较决策树、神经网络和支持向量机算法在上市公司信息风险预测问题上的优劣,以期为我国上市公司信用风险预测起到参考作用.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

Scenarios and creativity: Thinking in new boxes

To be creative and make change happen, leaders must do more than simply ‘think outside the box’, as the traditional business manuals suggest, using the popular American expression. After all, the space outside the box is infinitely expansive. Moreover, there can be no guarantee that a solution to the problem will be found. The answer: ‘Think in new boxes.’ This requires developing the right new box; in other words, useful new models, a helpful new approach to a problem. That is the real art of practical creativity. This short article outlines the approach (Thinking in New Boxes) and its application to classic scenario planning with a few examples. The authors also present the ‘Expressway to Scenarios’, an approach that wins in impact and practicality what it loses in deep analysis, by having top executives involved in key steps.     

On the Role of Paradigms in Understanding Economic Globalization

Any adequate analysis of economic globalization necessarily requires fundamental understanding of the worldviews underlying the views expressed with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization. This paper is based on the premise that any worldview can be associated with one of the four basic paradigms: functionalist, interpretive, radical humanist, and radical structuralist. It argues that any view expressed with respect to economic globalization is based on one of the four paradigms or worldviews. It, therefore, discusses four views with respect to the nature and role of economic globalization which correspond to the four broad worldviews. The paper emphasizes that the four views expressed are equally scientific and informative; they look at the nature and role of economic globalization from a certain paradigmatic viewpoint. Emphasizing this example in the area of economic globalization, the paper concludes that there are opportunities for each paradigm to benefit from contributions coming from the other three paradigms.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The concept of freedom and its relation to economic development--a critical appreciation of the work of Amartya Sen

Following a brief review of the conception of freedom as employedin economic discourse, this paper focuses on the evolution ofthe concept of freedom in the work of Amartya Sen. It tracesthe development of Sen's thought from the capability analysisof the late 1970s to his more recent separation of freedom intoits opportunity and process aspects. While broadly appreciativeof Sen's development of the concept of positive freedom, thepaper identifies some difficulties arising from his definitionof capability as a set of options as well as from his separationof the opportunity and process aspects of freedom. Aspects ofthe relationship between Sen's conception of freedom and thatof Marx are discussed briefly in the context of Sen's recentdiscussion of the market as a source of freedom.     

How chaebol restructuring after the 1997 crisis has affected corporate decision and performance in Korea: debt financing,ownership structure,and investment

ABSTRACT

Korean chaebol firms, characterized by excessive debt financing and overinvestment, experienced restructuring after the 1997 crisis. By reducing debt financing and thus overinvestment, they tried to reorganize financing structure and ownership structure. Chaebols’ debt reduction turns out to have improved performance. However, polarization between chaebol and non-chaebol firms has become more significant. Even after the crisis, firms that give higher cash flows to a controlling shareholder take more capital investment, indicating that agency problems still exist within chaebols. Chaebol-affiliated firms continue to be more active in R&D than non-chaebol firms. However, the pattern is limited to the group of top 10 chaebols after the crisis.

Abbreviations: KFTC: Korea Fair Trade Commission     

Types of technology

Technology is a concept rife with confusion. Here, I argue that technologies can be distinguished as a combination of type of producer and an idealized artefact life history. Using this definition, a number of technologies are identified. The first technology historically, in the Protostomes, was the production of individual or family dwellings. Next came objects such as spider webs for trapping prey. Stigmergy followed, with the social insects, as a collective endeavour to construct a mega-structure using simple rules of accretion. Some birds and primates began to make tools, or simple technological objects whose function is closely related to their form. Humans are distinguished by their ability to make machines. Traditional technology took place once people voluntarily organised into groups with specialised knowledge to produce more complex objects and structures. Monumental objects like ceremonial pyramids came with the command economies of the early agrarian societies, which also resulted in a new category of artefact, the network. Finally, with modern civilizations came ad hoc accretion, or population-level adding-on, to make truly complex technological systems. Developing a theoretical framework within which artefacts, production processes and ways of interacting with them are identified should help the study of technology to become more scientific.