不完全理性、投资者情绪与封闭式基金之谜

本文的主要贡献在于运用不完全理性投资者的情绪解析中国"封闭式基金之谜",并且论证投资者情绪是资产定价的重要因素。首先通过国内数据检验封闭式基金价格的过度波动说明国内投资者的不完全理性;其次提出了对LST(1991)的改进方法,通过提出假说与统计论证,解释了尽管国内封闭式基金的投资者结构与美国的不同,却有和LST类似的实证结果;进而利用其他反映情绪的指标间接证明封闭式基金折价是情绪指标;最后,检验情绪对市场收益的长期反向影响(长期收益反转)和情绪对短期市场收益的正向影响(短期收益惯性),论证了投资者情绪是资产定价的重要因素。     

再论封闭式基金折价动力——被忽略的套利替代效应和隐性交易费用研究

针对封闭式基金折价,本文通过理论分析构建了全新的折价机理模型,指出过往研究的不足在于套利替代效应的忽略和隐性交易费用问题。基于我国20只封闭式基金2002年9月—2013年11月期间的样本数据,分段研究证实如下结论:(1)以投资者风险规避为前提的套利替代效应的确是我国封闭式基金折价的动力之一,在2006年如果假设无风险利率为5%和剩余到期期限8年,该效应将导致基金折价约11.4%;(2)2006—2007年A股市场大牛市阶段,投资者风险偏好的上升使得套利替代效应转为罕见的负值;(3)过去我国封闭式基金折价率较高,主要和股权分置制度缺陷、股指期货缺位以及基金委托代理关系三个方面的隐性交易费用较高有关,2008年以来这方面的影响已显著下降;(4)2012年之后封闭式基金折价的套利替代效应再次显著,主要和市场长期低迷导致投资者风险规避意愿上升有关;(5)F检验表明,20只样本基金之间不存在套利替代效应的本质差异。     

我国封闭式证券投资基金折价问题研究

纵观各国封闭式基金发展历史，都在不同程度上出现高折价率的问题，我国封闭式基金机构投资者持有的份额比例较大、基金每股净值波动率明显、换手率较高，这使得我国封闭式基金折价率居高不下，基金价格低估明显。通过对历史数据的比较分析，结合现今具体情况，对影响我国封闭式基金折扣问题的因素可做进产步探讨，以期能够对今后这方面的理论研究和投资者及基金管理者有所借鉴。     

基金持股、止损机制与股价波动

中国A股的机构投资者持股能否降低市场波动这一问题一直存在诸多争论,本文使用了2010—2015年的A股基金和基金管理公司持股的数据,分析了机构投资者中的基金持股与股票价格波动的关系。通过实证分析本文发现:由于止损机制的存在,我国市场中的证券投资基金只能承受有限的噪音投资者风险。整体而言,证券投资基金持股能够降低市场的波动性,对于波动率较高的股票,证券投资基金持股比例与价格波动水平成正向关系;对于波动率较低的股票,基金持股比例与价格波动水平则成负向关系。     

基于半方差方法的封闭式基金投资价值分析

以证券收益率方差作为投资风险测度的Markowitz模型存在不足。作为不存在卖空的资本市场，向上波动对投资者而言是有好处的，因而笔者认为，以半方差（Semivariance)风险测度为基础、以基金价格为研究对象、结合证券投资基金样本的二级市场价格波动，可考察不同规模的基金的收益波动特性。用比较简便的方法区分上方风险和下方风险，可对基金投资价值作一估计。     

开放式基金的风险及其防范

一、开放式基金的风险分析开放式基金,是相对于封闭式基金的一种叫法,它是指发行总额不固定,基金单位总数随时增减的一种投资基金,投资者可以按基金的报价在规定的营业场所申购或赎回基金单位。近年来开放式基金的品种和数量不断增加,已成为广大投资者进行投资的主要对象。由于基金发行时,发行机构的宣传大多偏重其收益性,往往使投资者忽略了其中的风险。但随着股票市场的波动,许多基金的净值已低于基金单位的发行价,表现出明显的投资风险,应当引起我们的重视。开放式基金的风险是投资者投资于开放式基金时取得投资收益的不确定性。由于证券…     

封闭式证券投资基金的定价研究

封闭式证券投资基金是根据供求关系进行自由交易,其市场价格相对于资产净值将产生溢价或折价。研究了完全信息条件下与不完全信息条件下封闭式证券投资基金的定价,并在此基础上对我国的封闭式基金的现实价格波动进行了分析。     

金融市场不完全的理论分解与测度研究——基于中国封闭式基金折价的动态考察

基于金融市场不完全的结构分解,文章构建了一个涵盖市场交易费用、套利定价机制不完备程度和行为金融学因素的封闭式基金折价机理模型,分阶段计量分析发现:(1)普通交易成本因素影响基金折价约6.1%;(2)2007年前股指期货缺位因素导致基金折价约25.6%,之后随着股指期货的正式推出该影响显著下降;(3)市场套利定价机制不完备程度测度表明,该因素影响基金平均折价三个阶段分别为8.26%、5.87%和7.91%;(4)时期固定效应表明,有5个季度因投资者情绪相对乐观而降低了基金的平均折价率。     

基金持有人的结构特征

本文利用天相投资分析系统,对391只基金2008年中报基金持有人结构的变化趋势等进行分析。从开放式基金持有人特点来看:个人投资者占绝对主导地位;其对于高风险品种的偏爱程度明显降低,但份额并没有明显缩减;机构增持大盘风格指数基金较为明显。从封闭式基金持有人特点来看:机构持有者比例大幅下降;机构投资者对于封闭式基金价格有较强影响力;保险机构依然是机构投资主力。     

基金管理能力与封闭式基金的定价

一、封闭式基金定价的管理能力假说在 管理能力假说下 ,封闭式基金的定价反映基金管理能力的好坏 ,管理能力好的基金表现为溢价 ,管理能力差的基金表现为折价。现实中基金折价和管理能力的关系可能表现为两种情形。在市场发展的初期 ,投资者表现为不成熟或欠成熟 ,在对证券价格的判断上表现出静态预期或最多为适应性预期 ,即他们完全根据过去的信息推断未来 ,或最多结合过去信息的变化趋势对未来进行预测。在这种情况下 ,基金价格表现为对过去或现在的管理能力的反映。过去或现在的管理能力较差 ,将导致基金较大的折价 ;反之 ,基金则表现为溢价。而在相对成熟的市场中 ,信息的流动较为充分 ,投资者对信息的判断更趋向理性。在完全理性的预期下 ,投资者的决策是根据未来信息而不是现在或过去的信息来做出。在这种情况下 ,基金价格表现为对基金经理未来管理能力的反映。未来的管理能力较差 ,则基金表现为折价 ;反之则表现为溢价。(如Boudreaux1973 ,Pontiff1995 ,Chay和Trzcinka1999的研究 )。我们通常用净资产收益率来衡量基金的管理能力。净资产收益率定义为前后两期的净资产变动比例 ,这是在总收益的基础上扣除各...     

封闭式基金折价均值回归研究——基于协整分析

以我国仍在交易的25支封闭式基金为研究对象,利用每支基金从上市第2年到2010年12月的交易价格和净值的周数据进行实证分析。运用恩格尔-格兰杰两步法并进行Johansen协整检验,证实了我国封闭式基金折价存在均值回归现象。同时,误差修正模型分析结果显示,25支样本基金中有22支基金的交易价格与净值的误差修正项显著,说明封闭式基金的交易价格和净值的变动均会影响基金折价,其中交易价格变动对折价的影响更大。最后,提出我国基金投资者可通过投资折价较大的封闭式基金获得超额收益。     

Daily happiness and stock returns: The case of Chinese company listed in the United States

Existing literature exclusively focuses on the association between local investor sentiment and local stock market performance. In this paper, we investigate the contemporaneous and the lead-lag relationship between local daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter and stock returns of cross-listed companies, i.e., the Chinese companies listed in the United States. The empirical results show that: 1) by respectively controlling for the firm capitalization, liquidity and volatility, there exists the largest skewness on the Most-happiness subgroup. (2) There exist bi-directional relationships between daily happiness sentiment and market variables, i.e., the stock return, range-based volatility and excess trading volume. (3) There are significantly positive stock returns, higher excess trading volume and higher range-based volatility around the daily happiness sentiment spike days. These findings not only suggest that there exists significant interdependence between online activities and stock market dynamics, but also provide evidence for the existence of “home bias”.     

Is Moderate Market Performance in the U.S. a Sufficient Condition for Abnormal Returns on CEFs?

In this project, our topic pertains to examination of market efficiency, employing data from closed-end funds (CEFs) trading in the American stock market. Employing both aggregate and individual data, we examine whether or not moderate market performance is a sufficient condition in order to achieve abnormal returns, in the short-run, through exploitation of discount deviations from its mean value. The main hypothesis tested is that market performance affects the mean-reverting properties of CEFs’ discount. Moderate market performance ensures the mean-reversion of CEFs’ discount and points to cointegration between the share prices of CEFs and their net asset value (NAV). Furthermore, when NAV is identified as the common stochastic trend of the system then, market inefficiency is detected.     

Does international oil volatility have directional predictability for stock returns? Evidence from BRICS countries based on cross-quantilogram analysis

While numerous studies have investigated the relationship between oil volatility and stock returns, it is surprising that little research has examined the quantile dependence and directional predictability from oil volatility to stock returns in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. We address this issue by using the cross-quantilogram model proposed by Han et al. (2016). The empirical results show that, overall, oil volatility has a directional predictability for the stock returns in BRICS countries. When the oil volatility is in a low quantile (lower than its 0.1 quantiles), it is less likely to show either a large loss or a large gain in the stock market. In contrast, there is an increased likelihood of either large loss or a large gain in the stock market when the oil volatility is in a high quantile (higher than its 0.9 quantiles). The directional predictability from the oil volatility to stock returns depends on the net position of oil imports and exports of these BRICS countries in the oil market. The net oil exporters (Russia and Brazil) are less likely to have large gains and large losses in the stock market than are the net oil importers (India, China, and South Africa) when the oil volatility is in a low quantile. The net oil exporters are more likely to have large gains and large losses than are the net oil importers when the oil volatility is in a high quantile. The results are robust to change in the variable of oil volatility and the sample interval.     

噪音交易与股价过度波动:理论与中国经验分析

中国股市股票价格的波动性过大,引起这种现象的一个重要原因是噪音交易的存在和频繁发生。本文采用事件分析法,随机抽取了上海A股市场的近200种股票作为样本,通过构建正反馈交易的"涨幅组合",对噪音交易者投资的累积异常收益率进行检验。结果表明:股市过度波动与噪音交易频繁有密切的联系;噪音交易者通常要承受巨大的风险,但其投资收益率一般情况下却为负。     

From Returns to Tweets and Back: An Investigation of the Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average

A sizeable percentage of investors are using social media to obtain information about companies (Cogent Research [2008]). As a consequence, social media content about firms may have an impact on stock prices (Hachman [2011]). Various studies utilize social media content to forecast stock market-related factors such as returns, volatility, or trading volume. The objective of this article is to investigate whether a bidirectional intraday relationship between stock returns and volatility and tweets exists. The study analyzed 150,180 minute-by-minute stock price and tweet data for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over a random 13-day interval from June 2 to June 18, 2014 using a BEKK-MVGARCH methodology. Findings indicate that 87% of stock returns are influenced by lagged innovations of the tweets data, but there is little evidence to support that the direction is reciprocal, with only 7% of tweets being influenced by lagged innovations of the stock returns. Results further show that the lagged innovations from 40 percent of stock returns affect the current conditional volatility of the tweets, while 73 percent of tweets affect the current conditional volatility of stock returns. Moreover, there is strong evidence to suggest that the volatility originating from the returns to the tweets persists for 33 percent of stocks; the volatility originating from the tweets to the returns persists for 73 percent of stocks. Last, 53 percent of stocks exhibit both immediate and persistent impacts from returns to tweets, while 90 percent of stocks exhibit both immediate and persistent impacts from tweets to returns. These results may help traders achieve superior returns by buying and selling individual stocks or options. Also, asset and mutual fund managers may benefit by developing a social media strategy.     

PREDICTING STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY WITH INVESTOR SENTIMENT INDICES: A RECONSIDERATION USING A NONPARAMETRIC CAUSALITY‐IN‐QUANTILES TEST

Evidence of monthly stock returns predictability based on popular investor sentiment indices, namely S^BW and S^PLS as introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) and Huang et al. (2015) respectively are mixed. While, linear predictive models show that only S^PLS can predict excess stock returns, nonparametric models (which accounts for misspecification of the linear frameworks due to nonlinearity and regime changes) finds no evidence of predictability based on either of these two indices for not only stock returns, but also its volatility. However, in this paper, we show that when we use a more general nonparametric causality‐in‐quantiles model of Balcilar et al., (forthcoming), in fact, both S^BW and S^PLS can predict stock returns and its volatility, with S^PLS being a relatively stronger predictor of excess returns during bear and bull regimes, and S^BW being a relatively powerful predictor of volatility of excess stock returns, barring the median of the conditional distribution.     

证券投资基金间的利益输送与封闭式基金折价

作为资本市场的一个长久之谜,封闭式基金折价一直得到学术界及实务界的关注。基于利益输送视角对这一现象进行实证研究后,发现基金经理具有从封闭式基金向开放式基金进行利益输送的自利动机,且这种动机在行为上的体现直接影响到基金折价的截面差异。同时还发现封闭式基金对开放式基金的利益输送额越大,则该封闭式基金的折价率越大;相较于规模小的基金,规模较大的封闭式基金的基金经理的利益输送行为对折价的影响更为显著。这一结论对于中国基金的监管及制度的设计具有比较重要的现实意义。     

ASSET RETURNS UNDER PERIODIC REVELATIONS OF EARNINGS MANAGEMENT

The article investigates stock return dynamics in an environment where executives have an incentive to maximize their compensation by artificially inflating earnings. A principal–agent model with financial reporting and managerial effort is embedded in a Lucas asset‐pricing model with periodic revelations of the firm's underlying profitability. The return process generated from the model is consistent with a range of empirical regularities observed in the return data: volatility clustering, asymmetric volatility, and high idiosyncratic volatility. The calibration results further indicate that earnings management can be quantitatively important in accounting for the dynamic patterns of stock returns.