ECONOMICS: BETWEEN PREDICTION AND CRITICISM

We suggest that one way in which economic analysis is useful is by offering a critique of reasoning. According to this view, economic theory may be useful not only by providing predictions, but also by pointing out weaknesses of arguments. It is argued that when a theory requires a nontrivial act of interpretation, its roles in producing predictions and offering critiques vary in a substantial way. We offer a formal model in which these different roles can be captured.     

Porter model of economic development at the back of an envelope

The Porter model of economic development links the phases of development with national competitiveness. His model lies at the heart of the Global Competitiveness Index. It appears, curiously enough, that there is nowhere in the economics literature a concise explanation of the Porter model of economic development. This paper not only fills this gap but also draws the line of separation between formal economic models and narrative economic models; provides a rigorous presentation of Porter model of economic development; distinguishes between the Porter development path and Porter's law of economic development; strips Porter model to its bare essentials in a single picture; and finally, shows that the Porter model satisfies the condition known as the way the world works (www) constraint.     

我国农村正规金融与非正规金融效率分析

高效率的金融制度对经济发展提供强有力的资金支持,可以提高经济的总体竞争力,促进经济增长。对农村信用社、农业银行、农业发展银行和邮政储蓄银行等正规金融机构和村镇银行、小额贷款公司等非正规金融组织的效率进行调查,从资金配置效率、适应性效率和运行效率方面进行分析,结果显示：正规金融制度的效率偏低,非正规金融组织的效率偏高;两种金融制度的效率有各自的空间,在规模和范围较小时,非正规金融制度效率更高,而超出一定的发展范围和规模,正规金融制度的优越性则进一步凸显。     

Notes and comments. 'History versus equilibrium' and the theory of economic growth, by Mark Setterfield: a comment

Setterfield criticised previous formal models of cumulativecausation (CC) for their determinism in which economic growthrates are simply a function of 'initial conditions'. Setterfieldargued these formal models accurately represented the work ofthe leading CC figure, Nicholas Kaldor. This paper argues that,on the contrary, Kaldor identified a number of endogenous mechanismsthat account for those stylised facts of economic history, whichare absent in formal models of CC.     

我国农村金融发展对城乡收入差距的影响

大多数研究表明,中国整体金融发展显著扩大了城乡收入差距,但它们均未从农村金融发展的视角对城乡收入差距进行研究.本文从农村自身经济金融发展层面出发运用1978-2004年的相关数据,分析了农村金融发展与城乡收入差距之间的关系,结果显示:农村金融发展扩大了城乡收入差距,究其原因主要是农村资金的不断外流和非正规金融的不规范发展,加剧了城乡收入差距的扩大.现实的出路是遏制农村资金外流,提供更多的农村正规金融资源;规范非正规金融发展.     

Is a little sunshine all we need? On the impact of sunshine regulation on profits,productivity and prices in the Dutch drinking water sector

This paper analyzes the performance of Dutch drinking water utilities before and after the introduction of sunshine regulation, which involves publication of the performance of utilities but no formal price regulation. By decomposing profit change into its economic drivers, our results suggest that, in the Dutch political and institutional context, sunshine regulation was effective in improving the productivity of publicly organised services. Nevertheless, while sunshine regulation did bring about a moderate reduction in water prices, sustained and substantial economic profits suggest that it may not have the potential to fully align output prices with economic costs in the long run. In methodological terms, the DEA based profit decomposition is extended to robust and conditional non-parametric efficiency measures, so as to account better for both uncertainty and differences in operating environment between utilities.     

The nexus of economic and institutional evolution

The current state of the development economics literature ascribes an indisputable central role to institutions. This paper presents a formal model of institutional evolution that is based on the dynamic interactions between formal and informal institutions and economic development; the main features of the model is consistent with the fundamental theories that shed light to institutional evolution, namely the collective action and transaction cost theories, as well as dialectics. As informal institutional quality accumulates like technological know-how, while the level of formal institutional quality is chosen by the government to maximize welfare, subject to the economic and political costs. The solution of the model yields a punctuated trajectory of formal institutional evolution. Simulations reveal that the extent of diversity in informal institutional quality across a country delays formal institutional reforms. We also observe that, both the optimal quality of formal institutions and welfare are higher the more homogeneous is the country with respect to its informal institutions or the cultural attributes.     

湖南产业结构对经济增长贡献的地域差异研究

采用偏离—份额法对湖南省各地区的经济增长进行分析,计算出三大经济地带及各地级市州产业结构对经济增长的贡献情况,并以此为依据将14个地级市州划分为三类:产业结构推动效用显著的地区、结构推动效用不明显的地区和结构不利于经济增长的地区。并对不同地区产业结构对经济增长的贡献情况加以分析,在此基础上提出相应对策建议。     

人力资本投资对经济增长的影响--以河南与全国对比为例

有关一国或地区经济增长中人力资本投资的作用，学术界早已有所认识，当前的问題是如何把人力资本投资对经济增长的影响用定量的形式表现出来，其中变量参数的选择已成为理论界研究的重点。本文以人力资本存量为主要参数，通过构建模型，与全国进行对比分析，发现河南人力资本投资对经济增长的贡献远低于物质资本投资对经济增长的贡献，人力资本投资与物质资本投资缺乏规模经济性，人力资本投资促进经济增长的潜力较大。为使河南经济社会走上可持续发展道路，必须确立科学的发展观，加快以实物资本投资为主向人力资本投资与物质资本投资相协调方向转变，只有这样，才能高质量地实现河南在中原崛起。     

现代空港经济区的产业选择与空间布局模式

空港经济区的规划与建设在各地相继展开,各个城市机场临空经济区相继制定发展建设规划时,面临着同样两个关键问题,产业的选择与空间的布局。通过分析临空产业的特征、讨论空港经济区可能存在的产业类型,提出产业选择的普适途径;通过空港经济区产业布局的一般规律,来分析影响产业布局的因素和发展阶段,讨论分析方法,总结因地制宜的规划要点,为今后空港经济区的规划提供方法上的参考。     

司马迁的因俗以治思想及其现实镜鉴?

作为一种非正式制度,习俗在国家的社会经济发展和治理中起着非常重要的作用,在我国的古代社会尤其如此。司马迁较早注意到了俗与治的内在关联,但学术界忽视了其在司马迁经济思想中的重要地位。文章对司马迁的经济思想谱系中“俗”与“治”两大重要范畴进行了关联阐述,介绍了司马迁“因俗以治”治道思想的源流和主张,并结合现代经济学理论对其进行延伸与扩展,探讨其现实意义。研究发现：(1)司马迁的治道思想兼容了道家与儒家的无为而治思想的不同侧面,而其“善因论”的要义正在于“俗之所欲,因而予之”。(2)因俗以治的核心是因循人“生有欲”和“皆为利”的本性及民间习俗来因地制宜、因时制宜地立俗施事,以达至“事少而功多”的理想治理效果。(3)由于司马迁的经济思想带有浓厚的经验色彩和朴素性质,而且中国古代社会缺乏良好的市场环境,因此其在近代以前始终未得到重视和采纳。(4)司马迁“因俗以治”思想给现代国家治理带来了众多启示：一是要尊重风俗习惯并加以因势利导;二是要注重习俗等非正式制度与正式制度的兼容;三是要让好的习俗成为一种稳态均衡而固定下来并延续下去。文章不仅是对司马迁经济思想研究的丰富和拓展,而且对中国国家治理能力的提升也提供了有益的历史借鉴。     

Conflict diamonds

‘Conflict diamonds’ refer to the fatal role that diamonds are believed to have played in several African conflicts. The article analyzes the impact of diamond rents on economic growth in light of the broader, previously discovered empirical finding of a ‘curse of natural resources.’ By extending the theory of appropriative conflict, a predator–prey game is outlined in which a rebel chooses between peaceful production and predation on natural resources controlled by the ruler. It is shown that whereas an increase in natural resources will increase the ruler's public utility investments, it might also lead to a crowding-out of labor from the formal sector to the appropriative struggle, which depresses growth. As predicted by the model, a cross-country regression analysis suggests that diamond abundance has a negative relationship with economic growth in countries with weak institutions.     

Religious Identity,Informal Institutions,and the Nation-States of the Near East

This paper uses the Near East as a case study to describe how religious identity became a source of preference formation and a cause of social cleavage. It formulates the concepts of identity-sharing groups and resource-sharing groups to bridge between religious identity's social-psychological aspects and its socioeconomic effects. The paper then argues that social cleavages among religious identity-sharing groups generated informal institutions that are incompatible with the abstract formal institutions of the nation-states of Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. That incompatibility hobbles efforts of formal state institutions to promote economic development, and instead restrains economic growth by intensifying existing conflicts among groups. It suggests that a state that could promote economic development would be the one that recognizes and supports the informal, localized institutions and allows those of them with common features to evolve into abstract formal institutions.     

出口贸易、教育投入与经济增长:理论模型与经验证据

笔者借鉴获得性技能模型思想,研究教育投入通过影响外贸发展间接影响经济增长的路径,并重点考察两者对经济增长的联合影响机制.利用2004年～2009年31个省市数据进行实证分析,结果表明:教育投入对经济增长的边际影响为负且教育行业投入与出口贸易对经济增长的联合影响正向显著.可见教育投入对经济增长的直接促进作用,远远小于其通过促进外贸发展间接促进经济增长的作用.     

金融自由化条件下我国非正规金融问题研究——兼论二元金融之间关系及其经济影响

近几年来非正规金融的发展问题受到普遍关注,已成为经济理论的热点问题之一。长期以来,我国大型企业与国有企业主要从正规金融获得信贷资金,中小企业主要从非正规金融获得信贷资金,形成了相对割裂的二元金融结构。学者们普遍认为金融抑制是我国二元金融产生的主要原因,弱化二元金融也成为了我国利率市场化改革的原动力。始于2011年初的温州债务危机使非正规金融进一步受到广泛关注。加强民间借贷的疏导与监管、推动金融改革与创新、实现非正规金融的阳光化与合法化等日益成为热点问题。     

Calls for change. The scientific status of economic theory and the future of democracy: A review of three recent contributions

Abstract

After the last financial crisis, economic theory and economists have largely lost their credibility. Not having been able to foresee and explain the recession, they have clearly shown that a deep methodological reform of the discipline is necessary. With its restrictive assumptions and the self-referentiality of formal models, mainstream economics has indeed become highly unrealistic and therefore unable to face the deep and evident problems of capitalistic society. The books reviewed in this paper try to criticize economic theory from three closely related points of view: the technical drift that has endangered democracy and annulled the role of citizens in public choices, the sometimes obscure role of economists and the way through which articles of low scientific relevance are published, and finally the decisive role of the Nobel Prize in economics to legitimize the market turn begun in the 1970s. Considering such a discouraging picture, it is necessary to ask whether there is still hope for reforming economics and if, possibly returning to the classics of economic thought, it is still possible to carry out a struggle based on ideas and not on dogmatic prejudices.     

中国农村非正规金融:绩效、缺陷与治理

随着我国正规金融从农村纷纷撤走，非正规金融在农村地区迅速壮大，并为农村社会与经济发展提供了有力的金融支持。然而，由于非正规金融掌握信息的有限性和得不到法律认可与政府保护，从而它也存在许多缺陷，并对经济的平稳运行产生一些破坏作用。对待农村非正规金融，绝不能简单地否定或取缔它，而应持辩证的观点，扬长避短，因势利导，使其成为正规金融的有力补充。     

SEEKING RENT IN THE INFORMAL SECTOR

Rent seeking within the vast informal segment of the developing world is a relatively under‐explored topic in the interface of labor market policies and public economics. Moreover, how rent seeking and corruption within the informal segment gets affected by economic reforms targeted for the formal sector is rarely discussed in the literature. This paper fills the gap. We identify conditions under which economic reform in the formal segment will increase the rate of corruption or rent seeking in the informal sector and raise the pay‐off for those involved in rent‐seeking activities. When the formal sector contracts due to reforms, rent seeking in the informal sector may increase and lower the level of welfare unconditionally. Economic reforms may increase corruption instead of reducing it, unlike standard conjectures.     

Trust, reputation and relationships in grazing rights markets: An experimental economic study

Trust is frequently a requirement for economic exchanges and the management of natural resources. Providing public information on past actions can promote trust through the formation of reputations. We developed an economic experiment to test whether a formal reputation mechanism could facilitate trusting relationships in the tradable grazing rights markets. Providing information to create formal public reputations for market participants did not increase the overall efficiency of the market. However, it did result in greater equality of income between partners, suggesting that participants showed more concern for their partners when they knew they would be rated. Even with public reputation information, bilateral relationships remained central to the market. Market failures in existing grazing rights markets may be better addressed by measures to increase communication between partners rather than simply relying on a formal reputation mechanism.     

Interaction of formal and informal financial markets in quasi-emerging market economies

The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the interaction of formal and informal financial markets and their impact on economic activity in quasi-emerging market economies. Using a four-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with asymmetric information in the formal financial sector, we come up with three fundamental findings. First, we demonstrate that formal and informal financial sector loans are complementary in the aggregate, suggesting that an increase in the use of formal financial sector credit creates additional productive capacity that requires more informal financial sector credit to maintain equilibrium. Second, it is shown that interest rates in the formal and informal financial sectors do not always change together in the same direction. We demonstrate that in some instances, interest rates in the two sectors change in diametrically opposed directions with the implication that the informal financial sector may frustrate monetary policy, the extent of which depends on the size of the informal financial sector. Thus, the larger the size of the informal financial sector the lower the likely impact of monetary policy on economic activity. Third, the model shows that the risk factor (probability of success) for both high and low risk borrowers plays an important role in determining the magnitude by which macroeconomic indicators respond to shocks.