东北现代文学研究中的宏观意识与微观意识

新时期以来,东北现代文学研究成果显著,但同时也存在着一些不容忽视的问题。目前,东北现代文学研究中应全面强化研究者的宏观意识和微观意识,既不能一味注重史料发掘或微观呈现,也不能一味注重理论探讨或宏观论述,两个方面应互为补充,互相依存。     

个人行为的经济学解释

本文从分析"经济人"的行为特征入手,通过四象限模型分析了个人行为的类型和产生的原因以及人的行为如何影响制度供给,反过来制度供给又是如何通过"生产"或"塑造"个人偏好而影响经济效率.本文的政策含义是:制度是微观个体行为的产物,宏观绩效是制度价值的落脚点,是个人行为选择的结果.对经济发展的研究不能忽视对个人行为的研究,不能忽视制度供给是通过影响人的行为而影响经济效率.     

经济地理学研究中的尺度问题

分析了地理学中的尺度概念及其类型,强调尺度在经济地理学研究框架/范式中具有重要意义。经济地理学中的尺度变化,具有从早期微观尺度研究转向宏观微观结合以及宏观精细化研究的特征。中国经济地理学的宏观研究传统应该继续发扬,但同时应加强其微观研究。其微观研究可沿着三个层面展开:①在研究对象的空间尺度上从小区域或点位入手;②对研究对象进行分解,抓住其中最基本的单元,借助微观研究解释、揭示宏观现象;③对宏观(中观)对象的研究中,注意微观视角,即利用相关技术,构造精细的宏观模型。     

宏观环境对企业战略的影响路径

宏观环境对企业战略的影响不能仅停留在一般趋势与状态的描述上，必须对它进行深度分析。该深度分析可以通过宏观环境对企业战略的影响路径来体现。     

利率期限结构的宏观-金融模型

传统利率期限模型不引入宏观经济变量,利率在宏观经济中的重要性和期限结构信息对宏观经济的预测功能,促使人们将利率期限结构模型和宏观经济模型相结合形成宏观-金融模型,研究期限结构和宏观经济变量的相互影响。本文介绍宏观-金融模型产生背景和建模技术路线,对现有模型进行分类和评述,在总结已有研究成果的基础上,提出了宏观-金融模型存在的问题和未来发展方向。     

产学研结合绩效评价研究

从微观和宏观角度,构建产学研结合绩效评价指标体系和模型。微观从产学研结合项目角度来构建评价体系,对合作项目进行评价;宏观从区域的视角来构建产学研结合评价指标体系,对一个区域内产学研结合绩效进行评价。     

上市公司财务预警机制模型研究

本文通过对中西方财务预警机制和模型的研究，分析了中西方在财务预警机制研究中的不足，提出了以企业经营活动为依托．尝试通过多学科交叉形成研究的理论基础，从宏观监督和公司微观管理和内控的双重角度来研究预警机制的模型建立和改进措旆。     

我国宏观税负的经济影响分析

一国的税收收入来源于经济,宏观税负与经济增长之间存在相互作用,而且这种相互作用不仅是当期的,更有长期的相互影响。因此,在对宏观税负的经济影响研究中,本文运用SVAR模型结合政府支出研究我国宏观税负与经济增长之间的动态关系,即宏观税负的经济增长效应,并使用脉冲响应函数和方差分解这两个工具,对变量之间的传递效应进行数量分析。文章随后还构建了四个SVAR模型,深入分析宏观税负的经济增长作用机制。研究发现,宏观税负通过投资、消费、进口和出口影响经济增长,其中降低宏观税负的刺激作用只有对投资才是长期有效的,宏观税负对消费、进口和出口的影响仅仅是短期显著。而且相比于增加政府支出对经济增长的正效应,降低宏观税负的效果短期不显著且长期不持续。     

中国宏观经济混频数据模型应用——基于MIDAS模型的实证研究

传统宏观计量模型需要利用加总或插值等方法将混频数据统一到同频数据再应用于宏观经济模型中。而混频数据模型是直接利用混频数据构建模型,避免了因数据加总或插值导致的信息损失和人为信息的虚增,充分利用了现有高频数据的信息,改进了宏观计量模型估计的有效性和预测的精度。混频数据抽样模型(MIDAS)是混频数据模型的一种,它使用参数控制的滞后权重多项式函数对高频滞后数据进行有权重的加总并构建模型,再通过数值优化和非线性的方法估计混频数据模型中的最优参数。MIDAS模型是攫取现有高频数据的全样本信息用于宏观经济和金融的分析与预测的有效方法,本文基于该模型的实证研究探寻混频数据在中国宏观经济应用中的有效性。     

中观经济中长期消费需求模型及应用

关于需求理论及模型研究 ,目前偏重于宏观、微观经济研究 ,对基于产业的中观经济需求模型的研究尚不充分。针对这一不足 ,本文在融合宏观与微观经济需求理论的基础上 ,形成了符合现实的中观经济需求模型 ,将为各产业最终需求的预测 ,乃至需求导向的产业结构动态优化提供依据。     

New Austrian macro theory: A call for inquiry

This essay sketches some contours of what we think can reasonably be called New Austrian macro theory. By New Austrian, macro we mean a style of theorizing that incorporates the core of traditional or Old Austrian macro and pushes that core in new directions by using new analytical tools and methods. We would note that New Austrian is not some invention or construction de novo, but is a product of blending some traditional Austrian insights and formulations with new analytical formulations that were never part of the Austrian tradition but which can multiply the analytical oomph of that tradition. In this essay, we explain that the traditional Austrian macro theory suffers not from analytical wrong-headedness but from an underdevelopment of those complementary pieces of intellectual capital that would render Austrian macro once again a significant player in the efforts of economists to theorize about the properties of economic systems in their entirety.     

Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?

We urge macroeconomists to abandon the 'natural rate' as an analytical device on the ground that it has become a source of great and growing confusion. But we press them to recognise that it has great potential as a policy tool provided we grasp the central idea of a hypothetical unemployment rate, which can be compared with the actual unemployment rate. We integrate three hypothetical unemployment rates with the help of an exploratory macro model and then present a quarterly series for each for Australia for the period 1986(2) to 1997(2). We explain how such series could help in policy-making.     

The anatomy of the aggregate labor supply elasticity

We show that the aggregate Frisch elasticity of labor supply can greatly exceed the corresponding individual-level parameter, and we illustrate the “anatomy” of the former in terms of intensive and extensive margins. The methodology consists of using micro data from the PSID to construct a panel of individuals and an aggregate time series obtained by aggregating these individuals each year. These two data sets represent exactly the same sample at different levels of aggregation, and we use them to identify the parameters of two distinct MaCurdy-type micro and macro equations. We find a micro elasticity of about 0.1 and a much larger macro elasticity that ranges from 1.1 to 1.7. There is no conflict between the two estimates: the micro one reflects only the intensive margin while the macro one reflects, in addition, the much more volatile extensive margin. Furthermore, aggregation of only continuously employed individuals allows us to provide a reliable estimate of the intensive margin elasticity in the range 0.3–0.4. This implies an extensive margin elasticity in the range 0.8–1.4. These findings suggest that micro evidence is not a benchmark for assessing how large the Frisch elasticity of labor supply should be in a model of the aggregate economy.     

Regional double dividend from environmental tax reform: An application for the Italian economy

The greenhouse effect forces national Governments to design environmental tax policies for facing not only global warming but also the negative economic consequences resulting from the reduction of emissions such as a negative change of GDP. This paper aims at verifying the impact of an environmental fiscal reform able to attain both the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and the regional double dividend. We have decided to follow the computable general equilibrium approach for modelling the multisectoral income circular flow in the case of a bi-regional economy as described by a Social Accounting Matrix we have built for this purpose. The tools of analysis we chose represent suitable and consistent instruments in order to quantify the effects of an environmental tax reform. They can in fact highlight the possible differences in responses between macro regions in terms of regional GDP changes, regional prices and regional employment rate. In fact, the extended multi-sectoral framework, on which the model is developed, represents economic activities, imperfect labour market and institutional sectors behaviours in each macro region. The simulations performed concern the introduction of a progressive and proportional green tax on each type of commodity according to the corresponding level of CO₂ emissions. Furthermore all simulations introduce a recycling scheme of green tax revenues, whose aim is reducing both the income tax and the regional tax on activities (IRAP). The application is done on a bi-regional Social Accounting Matrix for Italy for the year 2003.     

Network Effects in International Migration: Education versus Gender*

In this paper, we analyze the impact that networks have on the structure of international migration flows. In particular, we investigate whether diaspora externalities are different across education levels and gender. Using new data that include both dimensions, we analyze the respective impact that networks have on the proportion of each category of migrant. Therefore, in contrast to the preceding body of literature on the macro determinants of international migration, we can identify the factors that influence the selection in terms of skills and in terms of gender. We find that network effects vary by education level, but not by gender.     

A copula–GARCH model for macro asset allocation of a portfolio with commodities

Many authors have suggested that the mean-variance criterion, conceived by Markowitz (The Journal of Finance 7(1):77–91, 1952), is not optimal for asset allocation, because the investor expected utility function is better proxied by a function that uses higher moments and because returns are distributed in a non-Normal way, being asymmetric and/or leptokurtic, so the mean-variance criterion cannot correctly proxy the expected utility with non-Normal returns. In Riccetti (The use of copulas in asset allocation: when and how a copula model can be useful? LAP Lambert, Saarbrücken 2010), a copula–GARCH model is applied and it is found that copulas are not useful for choosing among stock indices, but can be useful in a macro asset allocation model, that is, for choosing stock and bond composition of portfolios. In this paper I apply that copula–GARCH model for the macro asset allocation of portfolios containing a commodity component. I find that the copula model appears to be useful and better than the mean-variance one for the macro asset allocation also in presence of a commodity index, even if it is not better than GARCH models on independent univariate series, probably because of the low correlation of the commodity index returns to the stock, the bond and the exchange rate returns.     

Theory and practice of value management and its innovation natural resources from the perspective of sustainable development

The supreme obstacle for sustainable development of natural re,sources is the scarcity bottleneck.So how to promote the sustainable utili-ing and increase the using efficiency of natural resoures is worth studying.this paper suggests that we should improve the model and means of evaluating method and value management based on the theory of natural resource compensation.This paper discusses the User Cost Method based on the microeconomic aspect which can change the evaluating method for natural resources.From the perspective of value management model,we should use the User Cost Method to realize the linkage and integration (ifmicro and macro compensation for natural resources.Based on the evaluating and accounting idea of User Cost Method,this paper presents a theo retical framework to harmonize and link micro and macro compensation for natural resources.At present,we should seek the new approach and method to manage natural resources,so can we realize the capitalization management focusing on the vahte management for natural resources.     

Theory and practice of value management and its innovation for natural resources from the perspective of sustainable development

The supreme obstacle for sustainable development of natural resources is the scarecity, bottleneck. So how to promote the sustainable utilizing and increase the using efficiency of natural resources is worth studying. This paper suggests that we should improve the model and means of evaluating method and value management based on th~ theory of natural resource compensation. This paper discusses the User Cost Method based on the microeeonomicaspect which can change the evaluating method for natural resources. From the perspective of value managemen model, we should use the User Cost Method to realize the linkage and integration of micro and macro eompensation for natural resources. Based on the evaluating and aecounting idea User Cost Method, this paper presents a theo. retical framework to harmonize and link micro and macro compensation for natural resources. At present, we should seek the new approach and method to manage natural resources, so can we realize the capitalization managemen focusing on the vahte management for natural resources.     

固定汇率体系下的货币政策:对未来中国货币政策的探讨

Using a macro dynamic model that is specified for the current Chinese economy, we investigate the monetary policy in China under the assumption that the capital market was “open” under WTO frame-work while the exchange rate was fixed. Our purpose here is to find whether it is possible for China in this case to keep the effective monetary policy for stabilizing the domestic economy. For this, we suggest some institutional arrangements (or restrictions). Given these institutional restrictions, we find that not only the monetary policy can still be effective but also the fixed exchange regime will strengthen the macroeconomic stability shared by both the domestic economy and the economy of its trade partners. The dynamic analysis of the model further shows that the under-valued RMB is necessary for the target exchange rate to be sustainable. Finally, due to the import pattern of the current Chinese economy, RMB appreciation will not help to resolve the trade deficit problem in the Western economy with respect to China.      

零利率下限、货币政策与金融稳定?

文章通过构建包含零利率下限约束的D SGE 模型,系统探讨了存在零利率下限时外生不利冲击对经济的影响。研究结果表明：(1)当名义利率触及零利率下限时,宏观经济和金融体系的不稳定性和脆弱性会显著增加,外生不利冲击对产出、通胀、信贷等经济变量的影响也会明显放大。(2)当存在零利率下限时,传统泰勒规则已无法有效稳定经济,最优的货币政策规则不仅应盯住产出缺口和通胀缺口,还应对资产价格和信贷给予重点关注并做出适度反应。(3)货币政策更适于保持产出缺口和通胀缺口的稳定,但难以有效减缓房价和信贷的波动。只有将逆周期监管的宏观审慎政策和货币政策有效搭配,才能保证经济系统和金融系统的全面稳定。为了应对不利冲击,我国应进一步完善宏观审慎监管框架,并将其与货币政策有效搭配以保持宏观经济的全面稳定。