制度进步在中国经济增长中的作用

制度进步在经济增长中所起的作用如何测度始终是一个难题。本文在一定假设下,将制度进步引起的全要素生产率增长从经济增长中分离出来。对中国经济增长的实证研究表明,在改革开放初期,制度进步对中国经济的贡献是非常显著的,而近几年,制度进步的作用呈逐年下降之势。为保持我国经济的高速发展,制度进步的停滞局面亟待解决。     

中国工业制度体系变迁、市场结构与工业经济增长——计量与实证研究

中国工业经济制度的变革是中国经济高速发展最为重要的核心因素,本文打算从以下几个方面使该问题清晰化:一是利用残差计量分析方法计量出中国工业经济制度变迁对工业经济增长的贡献以及制度结构性变化与经济效率之间的关系;二是计量不同所有制经济的全要素生产率(TFP)及其变化的轨迹,指出制度变革对工业经济贡献的变化趋势;三是根据不同行业的结构性指标,找出导致各种经济成分TFP近几年变化趋势的原因;四是在上述分析的基础上重新评价和审视中国工业制度变革思路,并提出相应的政策建议。     

制度变迁对山东省经济增长的影响分析

现代经济学理论将制度因素纳入经济增长的框架 ,认为经济增长的根本原因是制度的变迁。通过将制度变革量化 ,通过对 1978年以来的制度变革在山东省经济增长中的作用进行了实证分析 ,发现制度变革对山东省的经济增长具有显著贡献 ,是促进山东经济增长的最关键变量。     

四川省经济增长决定因素的计量分析

本文应用扩展索洛经济增长模型,实证分析了各种因素对四川省人均GDP的贡献大小,分析结果表明,投资是四川省近20年来经济增长的主要因素,制度和知识资本是关键因素,并对四川省今后的发展提出了若干建议。     

制度变迁对我国经济增长的作用——基于结构方程模型的研究

现代经济学理论将制度因素纳入经济增长的框架,认为经济增长的根本原因是制度的变迁。本文运用结构方程模型,测量不可直接观测的制度变迁隐变量,实证分析我国新世纪以来的经济制度变革对经济增长的作用,发现物质资本投入的增长在绝大部分程度上归因于制度的改进,制度变迁对我国的经济增长具有显著贡献。     

我国产业结构变动趋势及对经济增长的影响

在改革开放后经济发展的不同阶段,三次产业对中国经济增长的贡献程度是不同的。本文通过对30年来中国产业结构变化趋势,即第一产业的比重不断降低、第二产业的比重经历了逐步降低再重新提高和第三产业比重稳步提升这一发展过程的分析,指出提高经济效率、通过体制创新和技术进步推动经济增长是保持中国经济持续高速增长的重要途径。     

制度变革对云南省经济增长的贡献评价

本文通过将制度变革量化，运用SPSS软件中的主要成份分析功能和C－D函数模型，对1978年以来的制度变革在云南省经济增长中的作用进行了实证分析，发现经济体制变革对云南省的经济增长具有显著贡献，是促进云南经济增长的最关键变量。     

产业结构调整与经济增长的关系研究

改革开放以来,经济制度变革和技术进步带动了中国三次产业结构变动。在产业结构变动的过程中,国民经济也在高速增长,中国从一个经济发展落后的农业国,发展成为工业门类齐全的世界第二大经济体。本文参阅以往的研究文献,在前人研究的基础上结合中国改革开放以来经济运行的具体情况,探讨产业结构调整与经济增长之间的关系,尝试建立产业结构调整对经济增长的影响机制。理论分析表明:产业结构调整是推动经济增长的重要因素。然后运用计量经济工具对产业结构变动和经济增长进行多元回归分析,实证检验结果证实了理论分析的判断。     

中国经济增长动力及前景分析

中国经济在过去26年间持续快速增长,高增长的动力是什么?未来10—20年,能否继续保持这种态势?引起了国内外广泛的关注。本文通过建立中国经济增长的综合因素模型,得出如下基本结论:资本投入增加是中国经济增长最主要的源泉,包括结构升级、人力资本效率提高、制度变迁等在内的技术进步的贡献也较强,劳动投入增加的贡献相对较弱,这与中国劳动力供给相对过剩、劳动边际效率较低有关。未来16年,中国经济仍可望继续保持适度较快增长,但要达到目前的高速度,将面临投资率继续增高,能源约束加大等矛盾。大力转变经济增长方式是解决这一症结的根本途径。     

深圳经济增长的实证分析

改革开放25年来,深圳以年均28%的增长速度,累计创造了超过2万亿元的GD P,累计向中央上缴了4000多亿元的税收,创造了每平方公里土地产生1.75亿元GD P、6000万元税收的效益水平。深圳经济增长的巨大成就引发了一系列的讨论,其中之一就是深圳经济高速增长的驱动力是什么,在深圳经济特区制度的背景前提下是劳动力、资本还是技术的有效配置成为经济增长的主要驱动力;在深圳经济高速增长的路径选择中,除了经济制度因素所带来的推动力外,劳动力、资本和技术对经济增长的贡献权重表现如何。本文就针对这些问题,借助现代经济计量学工具进行分析以…     

Transition of China��s growth pattern

China has achieved hyper economic growth in the past three decades. The achievement, though spectacular, is nothing incomprehensible to modern economic theories. A number of characteristic factors, short-term or long-term, have been favorable to fast growth. The market-oriented reforms that started thirty years ago have installed the preconditions for the economy to benefit from these factors. As China rises to the rank of middle-income countries, some conditions that used to support fast economic growth are now undergoing profound changes. These changes have important implications on capital formation and productivity growth, the two major drivers of growth. With the era of hyper economic growth coming to its end, the growth pattern of the Chinese economy is in transition. That calls for a transformation of government’s role in the economy to answer the challenges of this transition.     

Institutional Change and American Economic Growth

The environmental sustainability of economic growth has been subject to much debate for many decades. Recently, two alternatives to the growth paradigm have been put forward: namely, "a-growth" and "degrowth." The first proposes to ignore GDP information and focus instead on sound environmental, social, and economic policies independently of their effects on economic growth. The second recommends a downscaling of the economy so as to make it consistent with biophysical boundaries. We compare these approaches in the context of the growth paradigm and examine whether they have any merit. We further consider the potential contribution of institutional economics to further develop such alternatives.     

Investigation of institutional changes in the UK housing market using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models

This paper investigates the effects of institutional changes within the UK housing market in recent decades using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models. This approach is motivated by models of institutional change drawn from the political science literature which focus on the existence of both fast-moving and slow-moving institutional changes and the interactions between them as drivers of the dynamics of asset prices. As a methodological contribution, we use several time-varying parameter models for the first time in investigations of institutional change. Our findings support the existence of both structural breaks and continuous variance in parameters. This contributes to our understanding of the housing market in two respects. Firstly, the dates of structural breaks appear to better match unexpected market shocks rather than remarkable political events, and this supports prior institutional theory. Secondly, assessment of the effect of slow-moving institutional changes shows that people’s biased expectations rather than the economic fundamentals have increasingly played an important role in driving housing prices in the short run although fundamentals continue to drive house prices to converge to their long-run equilibrium.     

EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT-THE CANADIAN CASE*

This study assesses the relationship of education and economic growth, economic development and economic progress in aggregate, in structural and in micro-economic terms on the basis of one hundred years of Canadian experience. Education is considered as a factor of input. The contribution made by knowledge resulting from additional education expands the capacity to produce, and increases the demand for goods and services and the desire for greater leisure. The dual function of education is stressed: the demand and supply effect. Education is examined both as a cause and a consequence of economic growth, economic development and economic progress, through its contribution to the quality of the labour force, earning capacity, both individual and national, productivity, the rate of economic growth and the character of economic development. The Canadian experience suggests that educational progress generally occurred in line with economic development during the first eight decades, with the real take-off in educational advancement only occurring in the last two decades, when the nation reached the stage of technological maturity and high mass-consumption. Among the reasons for the lower ratio of gross national product devoted to education in the first eight decades were the low priority attached to education, the emphasis on investment in physical capital because of its shorter pay-off period than investment in human capital, and the heavy reliance on a substantial flow of immigrants who had obtained their education and training abroad. A distinct change occurred, however, in the last two decades, partly as a result of new technological challenges and partly as the result of changes in private and public attitudes, as the recognition of the rewards of education in terms of individual advancement and social progress led to a greater willingness to devote an increasing proportion of the nation's resources to investment in human capital, long pay-off periods notwithstanding.     

产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的空间分析--以河南省为例

产业结构变动是影响区域经济增长的重要因素。采用多部门经济模型和基于统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法,以河南省为例,分析了1994—2003年10年来产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献,发现产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的空间差异明显,地区产业结构变动差异较大,各地产业结构调整进展不一。产业结构变动对区域经济增长的贡献与区域经济增长之间存在显著的负相关关系,经济增长率降低是结构调整的基本动力之一,而结构调整又成为经济增长的动力。影响产业结构变动对区域经济增长贡献的主要因素是区域产业结构政策和产业投资政策,人均GDP、年均GDP则与其不相关或弱相关。     

A model of tournament incentives with corruption

The institution that has enabled decades of rapid economic growth in China features lower-level government officials competing for promotion to a higher level by promoting local economic growth. Theoretically, this tournament-style promotion scheme calls for a convex wage scale to effectively elicit effort. However, the empirically observed public-sector pay scale is rather concave in China. We reconcile the theoretical prediction on the wage progressivity with its empirical counterpart by recognizing other implicit forms of incentives of rising to the top made possible by another institutional feature of China: the top-down disciplinary inspection.     

中国经济转型与货币需求

本文采用"从一般到特殊"的动态建模方法对中国经济转型过程中的货币需求函数进行了再估计,通过引入市场化进程相对指数作为衡量经济转型的制度变量考察货币需求、经济增长、通货膨胀、利率和经济转型之间的相互关系。结果发现,尽管1978—2007年间30年的改革开放使得中国的经济体制和金融体系发生了较大的转型,但通过引入适当的制度变量,仍然可以得到稳定的货币需求函数。本文建立的货币需求动态模型证实了经济体制的市场化转型无论长短期都是拉动货币需求增加的因素,通货膨胀是解释货币量的有效外生解释变量,短期内利率变量对实际货币需求影响不显著,但其确实显著地进入了长期货币需求关系。     

中国宏观经济走势和调控政策选择

文章深入分析了中国当前宏观经济形势以及宏观调控政策，主要围绕四个方面的内容展开：首先，今年政府工作报告提出两个重要目标：一是GDP增长7．5％，一是CPI控制在4％，这表明政府淡化经济增长，增大经济结构调整和转变发展方式的决心和政策方向。第二，现行的金融结构和金融体制基本上是国有大金融主导的，同时国家又不承认民间金融的合法性，造成许多中小企业的融资需求无法得到满足。因此，当前的货币政策和金融体制需要进一步放松管制。第三，政府收入快速增长与居民可支配收入不断下降形成矛盾，实现公共财政真正走向公众的目标还需要更多的政策调整和改革。最后，当前中国的体制现状是政府太强、社会太弱及市场扭曲，因此未来改革的方向可以概括如下：约束政府，壮大社会，回归市场。     

未来25年全球政府债务展望:对经济和公共政策的影响

文章探讨了主要经济体以及全世界的长期财政前景。文章认为,如果当前的税率或政府的退休和卫生保健惠民工程没有发生变化,未来25年政府债务规模将在大多数发达经济体和许多新兴经济体中增长到危险和不可持续的水平。虽然对于主要的经济体来说,在经济增长不出现任何大的、出乎意料的负面震荡的情况下,危险区很可能还比较远,大约会发生在今后10～25年时间内,但如果允许政府债务继续增长,利率最终将上升,从而挤出生产性投资,降低经济增长率。严重的经济下滑有可能迅速推动政府债务水平上升到危险区间,并极大地增加爆发危机的可能性。因此,政策制定者现在就应该开始计划进程,将政府债务调整到可持续的轨道。当前计划中的预算削减应该延迟到2013～2015年执行,额外的预算削减措施也应该从2016年开始实行。此外,应该立刻在控制退休和医疗成本方面达成一致,认真解决这个威胁到增长的问题。